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   <title>RobertoW&apos;s Blog</title>
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   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/robertow//2654</id>
   <updated>2009-05-07T21:58:29Z</updated>
   
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<entry>
   <title>Crunching the numbers on one of the Fed&apos;s off-balance-sheet items</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/05/crunching-the-numbers-on-one-o.php" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/robertow//2654.269326</id>
   
   <published>2009-05-07T21:47:10Z</published>
   <updated>2009-05-07T21:58:29Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[From the Fed-Citicorp off-balance-sheet item Glenn Greenwald cites in his article today on&nbsp; lax oversight at (and of) the Fed: Treasury and the FDIC also have agreed to share with Citigroup losses on a designated pool of up to $306...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>RobertoW</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="9035" label="Bailout" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="10534" label="Federal Reserve" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="19400" label="off-balance-sheet" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/">
      <![CDATA[<p>From the <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/129citigroup.pdf">Fed-Citicorp off-balance-sheet item</a> Glenn Greenwald cites in his article today on&nbsp; lax oversight at (and of) the Fed:</p>
<blockquote><i>Treasury and the FDIC also have agreed to share with Citigroup losses on a designated pool of up to $306 billion in primarily mortgage-related assets currently held by Citigroup.</i></blockquote>
<p>$306 billion is a lot of money.&nbsp; Still.&nbsp; But who assumes responsibility as time goes on for the losses on this amount is&nbsp;truly revealing.&nbsp; And frightening.&nbsp; </p>
<p>Follow along with me as I work the math.</p>
<p>For losses exceeding "current reserves and marks"(to be realistic, let's make those zero), Citi is responsible for up to $29 billion.</p>
<p>$29 billion taken from $306 billion leaves $277 billion.</p>
<p>Citi then bears 10% of "additional losses", while the Treasury picks up $5 billion, the FDIC picks up $10 billion.</p>
<p>Wait, the government's losses are $15 billion max, Citi's is 10% of the total - this is a damn word problem.</p>
<p>Not to worrry. $15 billion is 90 percent of what? $16.67 billion. So Citi would be out $1.67 billion.</p>
<p>I hate decimals, though. Let's make it $2 billion (so even more than they <i>really</i> are exposed).</p>
<p>$277 billion less $5 billion less $10 billion less $2 billion - that leaves $260 billion worth of - crap, what happens next? We eat the whole thing?</p>
<p>Nah: after all the money from the loss-sharing arrangement is exhausted, the Fed will provide Citi with yet more "financing up to the value of the assets remaining in the designated pool after the loss sharing arrangements with the Treasury and FDIC are exhausted."</p>
<p>So Citi can borrow another $260 billion or so(given that the likelihood of underlying asset "value" being marked to market is next-to-never). On what terms?</p>
<p>Any advances made would be "at a floating rate equal to the 3-month overnight index swap rate plus 300 basis points."</p>
<p>The comparable New York Funding Rate for three months in today's WSJ is 0.9525%. So let's say Citi would be borrowing at around 4% if it were to happen today.</p>
<p>I'm sure most of your mortgages are around that.</p>
<p>(But surely the possibility of us suffering huge losses is something we have to live with for only a limited period of time? Once Citi is back on their feet at the end of 2010, say, this whole nightmare scenario comes to an end?</p>
<p>Right?</p>
<p>Nope. The facility is good for 10 years on the residential mortgage-backed assets, 5 years on everything else.</p>
<p>So prepare yourself for one hundred twenty months of angst.)</p>
<p>Did I mention the advances are "provided to Citigroup on a non-recourse basis, except with respect to interest payments"?</p>
<p>Citi's gotta pay the interest. The principal - not so much.</p>
<p>I think that's the deal on my 30-year.</p>
<p>Oh but it's not <i>that</i> terrible. Citi continues to share 10% of the loss! Extra patriot points for helping a poor country out. (Damn country - always getting into trouble and making me bail it out...)</p>
<p>$260 billion less $26 billion - we're only out, potentially, $234 billion, plus the $15 billion Treasury and the FDIC ponied up, less whatever interest we can collect from a bank that, given how things are going, is unlikely to be able to pay their light bills at that point.</p>
<p>So $249 billion.</p>
<p>Doesn't this deal sounds kinda insanely sweet? I know it would to me if I were a reckless, desperate money-center bank in need of <i>public charity</i>.</p>
<p>Really sending you to the alms house on bread and water, aren't we, Citi? You're out $29 billion plus $2 billion plus $26 billion - let's just make it $57 billion.</p>
<p>$57 billion out of - where did we start? - $306 billion.</p>
<p>Citi's maximum exposure - around 19%. US of A's - 81%.</p>
<p>Yeah. Sounds like the private sector appetite for risk really took a hit on this one. (Citi theoretically knows a lot more about these assets than we do. Coincidence?)</p>
<p>But hold on - don't have a cyclone in your bloomers yet, America - Geithner and Bernanke are watching our back:</p>
<blockquote><i>Any financing provided by the Reserve Bank would be collateralized by the assets in the designated pool.</i></blockquote>
<p>"Pool" - kind of like the one in Grey Gardens. Just not so well-maintained.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>]]>
      
   </content>
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<entry>
   <title>Texas want to secede?  Why not sell them first?</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/04/texas-want-to-secede-why-not-s.php" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/robertow//2654.266339</id>
   
   <published>2009-04-17T17:34:48Z</published>
   <updated>2009-04-17T17:43:43Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[It looks like someone wants to get a jump on the Texas Secession Movement by selling them on eBay&nbsp;before they hightail it out of the union. This actually strikes me as s fairly reasonable way to offset all that bailout...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>RobertoW</name>
      
   </author>
   
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      <category term="Muckraker" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
      <category term="TPMDC" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="18258" label="Secession" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="7352" label="Texas" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/">
      <![CDATA[<p>It looks like someone wants to get a jump on the Texas Secession Movement by selling them <a href="http://cgi.ebay.com/The-Great-State-of-Texas_W0QQitemZ170322454911QQcmdZViewItemQQptZLand?hash=item170322454911&amp;_trksid=p3286.c0.m14&amp;_trkparms=72%3A1205%7C66%3A2%7C65%3A12%7C39%3A1%7C240%3A1318%7C301%3A1%7C293%3A1%7C294%3A50">on eBay</a>&nbsp;before they hightail it out of the union.</p>
<p>This actually strikes me as s fairly reasonable way to offset all that bailout money.&nbsp; And there shouldn't be a shortage of bidders - Mexico, China, Drug cartels, Right-wing militias...TX does have all that wide open space, perfect for people, military maneuvers&nbsp;or guerilla operations.</p>
<p>Unfortunately,&nbsp; bidding starts at $100,000 or I would have made an offer myself.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>]]>
      
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</entry>

<entry>
   <title>&quot;You have nothing to worry about if you&apos;re not doing anything wrong&quot;</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/04/you-have-nothing-to-worry-abou.php" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/robertow//2654.265919</id>
   
   <published>2009-04-14T22:07:55Z</published>
   <updated>2009-04-14T22:14:49Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[Remember when this was the standard Republican response to any questioning of the Bush Admin's growing repository of police-state powers and executive branch abuses? &nbsp; Guess what.&nbsp; Now the shoe's on the other foot, and the foot is screaming for...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>RobertoW</name>
      
   </author>
   
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      <category term="Muckraker" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
      <category term="TPMDC" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="11716" label="Department of Homeland Security" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="18072" label="DHS" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="10219" label="Glenn Greenwald" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="18074" label="right-wing hypocrites" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/">
      <![CDATA[<p>Remember when this was the standard Republican response to any questioning of the Bush Admin's growing repository of police-state powers and executive branch abuses?</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Guess what.&nbsp; Now the shoe's on the other foot, and the foot is screaming for a podiatrist.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Check out this <a href="http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2009/04/14/surveillance/">great post</a>, courtesy of Glenn Greenwald, on the Department of Homeland Security's warning to local police about the threat of growing incidents of right-wing violence.</p>]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>PBGC&apos;s Millard hired Goldman, Blackstone, J.P. Morgan to manage real estate, private equity</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/03/pbgcs-millard-hired-goldman-bl.php" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/robertow//2654.263834</id>
   
   <published>2009-03-30T21:13:39Z</published>
   <updated>2009-03-30T22:15:34Z</updated>
   
   <summary>I blogged earlier today about the intriguing shift in this pension guaranty agency&apos;s investments into real estate and private equity under a director, Charles E.F. Millard, who had previously drummed up business for a real estate investment group, Broadway Partners....</summary>
   <author>
      <name>RobertoW</name>
      
   </author>
   
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      <category term="TPMDC" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="17231" label="Charles Millard" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="17236" label="PBGS" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/">
      <![CDATA[<p>I blogged earlier today about the intriguing shift in this pension guaranty agency's investments into real estate and private equity under a director, Charles E.F. Millard, who had previously drummed up business for a real estate investment group, <a href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/03/pbgc-and-its-former-directors.php">Broadway Partners</a>.</p>
<p>I wondered aloud what real estate investments might currently be in PBGC's portfolio.&nbsp; While the details will have to wait - PGBC hasn't been forthcoming - I did pick up this interesting tidbit on the <a href="http://www.zibb.com/article/4724100/PBGC+Posts+Financial+Performance+Gains+in+2008+Annual+Report+Director+Millard+Urges+Continued+Investment+Diversification">changes</a> Mr. Millard brought to the agency:</p>
<blockquote dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<p dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">The PBGC also entered into strategic partnerships with three leading financial service firms, Blackrock, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan, who will manage very signficant real estate and private equity allocations...</p></blockquote>
<p dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">How significant?&nbsp; <a href="http://www.pionline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090120/REG/901209987/1011">$2.5 billion</a> in significance - $900 million each to Blackrock and J.P. Morgan, $700 million to Goldman.&nbsp; It's little wonder that Gary D. Cohn, President and Co-Chief Operating Officer, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. <a href="http://www.digital50.com/news/51169">raved</a>&nbsp;about the arrangement:. &nbsp;"(w)e are delighted with this significant commitment to our alternative investment strategies."</p>
<p dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">Did Goldman and friends in turn channel some of those funds to Broadway Partners?&nbsp; We'll have to&nbsp;wait to&nbsp;find out.</p>
<p dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">In the meantime, we might be wondering what the real deficit of this agency is.&nbsp; Mr. Millard has pointed to steady deficit reduction as one signal accomplishment of his agency under Bush.&nbsp; The reported deficit shrank to $11.2 billion in fiscal 2008, down from $14.1 billion in 2007 and a whopping $23 billion in 2005.</p>
<p dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">Most&nbsp;of this reduction, however, owes&nbsp;nothing to Millard or to his predecessor's fiscal prowess.&nbsp; In fact, here's what Millard had to say in a <a href="mailto:http://www.allbusiness.com/legal/pensions-benefits-law/11664552-1.html">candid interview</a> about the deficit reduction:</p>
<blockquote dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<p dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">Millard: It's very important to understand there are two principal factors as to why our liabilities are going down.&nbsp; No. 1, <em>as interest rates rise, the valuations of those liabilities go down</em>.&nbsp;(my emphasis)&nbsp;No. 2, the Pension Protection Act changed the math.&nbsp; They basically said we're going to count the liabilities of [airlines] Delta and Northwest differently from the way we're going to count everybody else's liabilities. If you count them differently, you take them out of your deficit.&nbsp; <em>It doesn't mean that the threat is no longer posed to us in the long term. </em>(my emphasis)&nbsp;</p></blockquote>
<p dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">So in truth, one reason for the decline in the reserve deficit no longer&nbsp;applies - with interest rates still falling, not rising, liability valuations are increasing - and the second is basically voodoo economics courtesy of&nbsp;sweetheart legislation.</p>
<p dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">In fairness to Mr. Millard, the deficit was reduced by <a href="The%20agency%20has%20$63%20billion%20in%20assets.%20But%20it%20is%20obligated%20to%20spend%20$74%20billion%20on%20pension%20benefits%20in%20the">$3 billion</a> in fiscal 2008 because 13 auto parts suppliers reorganized and didn't leave PBGS holding the bag.</p>
<p dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">But with tricky math to obscure the real extent of the deficit, shrinking interest rates adding to liability valuations, companies choosing to underfund their pension plans in a period when more of them are likely to go into bankruptcy, and Goldman Sachs and friends poised to "manage" the pension backstop into new and riskier ventures on which they directly profit, I wouldn't count on a lot of good news in the next set of figures.</p>
<blockquote dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<p dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">&nbsp;</p>
<p dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font color="#000000">&nbsp;</font></span></p></blockquote>]]>
      
   </content>
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<entry>
   <title>PBGC and its former director&apos;s glaring conflict of interest</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/03/pbgc-and-its-former-directors.php" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/robertow//2654.263788</id>
   
   <published>2009-03-30T18:09:52Z</published>
   <updated>2009-03-30T18:49:07Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[Apparently&nbsp;under the Bush Administration, &nbsp;upper echelon Wall Streeters had another venue besides the Treasury Department to call their own: the federal agency that backstops billions in pension payments for companies at risk for bankruptcy. The Boston Globe, Josh and Zachary...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>RobertoW</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="17231" label="Charles Millard" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="17233" label="PBGC" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/">
      <![CDATA[<p>Apparently&nbsp;under the Bush Administration, &nbsp;upper echelon Wall Streeters had another venue besides the Treasury Department to call their own: the federal agency that backstops billions in pension payments for companies at risk for bankruptcy.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/03/30/pension_insurer_shifted_to_stocks/?page=full">Boston Globe</a>, <a href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/03/big_trouble_2.php">Josh</a> and <a href="http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/03/genius_federal_pension_guarantor_switched_from_bon.php">Zachary Roth</a> today highlight yet another tale of fiduciary negligence and the woeful mismanagement of public funds - the reallocation of the reserves of the Public Benefit Guaranty Corporation(PBGC) into&nbsp;high-risk investments&nbsp;last year from bonds, a strategy a former&nbsp;advisor likened to a company that insures hurricane damage investing its premiums in beachfront property.</p>
<p>Charles E.F. Millard, formerly of Lehman Brothers, took over as director of PBGC in 2007, and&nbsp;quickly switched the agency's mix of investments to 55 percent of stocks and real estate from 15 to 25 percent just as markets went into a drastic freefall.&nbsp; Interestingly, of this new allocation 5 percent could now be invested in private real estate and 5 percent in private equity firms.</p>
<p>What's so interesting about this particular shift?&nbsp; Some quick sleuthing reveals that in 2004, after leaving Lehman, Mr. Millard went to work for a company called <a href="http://www.broadwaypartners.com/news.php?section_id=19&amp;news_id=3">Broadway Real Estate Partners</a>.&nbsp; His new job?&nbsp; According to the company's press release:</p>
<blockquote dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #111224; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Mr. Millard will be responsible for the creation and direction of BP Securities, a brokerdealer which will syndicate both equity and debt in Broadway Partners real estate investments to private individuals, families and institutions.</span></p></blockquote>
<p>Scott Lawlor, CEO of Broadway Partners, was quite pleased with Mr. Millard's hiring:</p>
<blockquote dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<p>[Mr. Millard]<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #111224; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> is ideally suited to expand Broadway's ability to&nbsp; offer real estate investment opportunities to our investors and to help us expand our investor base.</span></p></blockquote>
<p dir="ltr"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #111224; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">And Mr. Millard was equally enthusiastic about the arrangment, saying :</p>
<blockquote dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #111224; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">&nbsp;"I hope to expand our pool of investors as Broadway increases its investments."</span></span></p></blockquote>
<p dir="ltr"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #111224; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Is it just my overworked cynicism, or does it seem exceedingly convenient and self-serving for the Wall Street-beloved Bush adminstration to put a fox -&nbsp; sorry, a Wall Street executive whose prior responsibility has been to expand the opportunities for real estate investment - in a henhouse - sorry, a federal&nbsp;agency managing the pension fund risks of shaky companies, and for&nbsp;that executive to immediately allocate a greater proportion of the agency's funds into real estate <em>despite expert advice to the contrary</em>?</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #111224; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Has PBGC actually&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;any&nbsp;"real estate investment opportunities" offered by Broadway Partners?&nbsp; The agency hasn't revealed any details&nbsp;of its&nbsp;post-September 2008 trading, so we can't be sure.</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #111224; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Given Mr. Millard's&nbsp;prior enthusiasm for expanding&nbsp;Broadway's&nbsp;"pool of investors", however, it wouldn't be shocking.</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #111224; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">And it's hard to know how else to explain undertaking such a risky move at a time when the agency was appearing increasingly likely to be on the hook for billions of dollars.</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #111224; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">I</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #111224; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&nbsp;</span></p>
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<entry>
   <title>When the IMF thinks you&apos;re in trouble, better pay attention</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/03/when-the-imf-thinks-youre-in-t.php" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/robertow//2654.263642</id>
   
   <published>2009-03-28T18:42:42Z</published>
   <updated>2009-03-28T19:14:48Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[Josh has some telling graphs on display today that vividly illustrate&nbsp;the supersizing of the banking and securities industry since 1980.&nbsp; He also links to&nbsp;their&nbsp;source&nbsp;article&nbsp;at the Atlantic, a searing indictment of our profligate oligarchy and its emerging-market ways&nbsp;by Simon Johnson, former...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>RobertoW</name>
      
   </author>
   
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      <category term="Muckraker" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
      <category term="TPMDC" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="17096" label="Emerging Markets" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="17098" label="financial services industry" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="12018" label="IMF" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/">
      <![CDATA[<p>Josh has some <a href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/03/i_wanted_to_share_this.php">telling graphs</a> on display today that vividly illustrate&nbsp;the supersizing of the banking and securities industry since 1980.&nbsp; He also links to&nbsp;their&nbsp;source&nbsp;<a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice">article</a>&nbsp;at the Atlantic, a searing indictment of our profligate oligarchy and its emerging-market ways&nbsp;by Simon Johnson, former chief economist of the IMF, that really puts the metastasizing of the financial services industry in a clear, convincing, finally&nbsp;unnerving global and macroeconomic perspective.</p>
<p>I have to admit, before I read "The Quiet Coup" I was concerned comparisons of our situation to that of Russia and Argentina in the 1990's&nbsp;might be&nbsp;too alarmist, and neglected the history of economic debacles (and their solution) in &nbsp;our own country.&nbsp; Now, however, I'm a true believer in the pungency and timeliness of the comparison.</p>
<p>Another fine blogger, Glenn Greenwald, has <a href="http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2009/03/26/comparisions/index.html">also</a> called attention to the parallels between the dynamics and root causes of&nbsp;failing third-world economies and our own.&nbsp;Glenn <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/25/AR2009032502226.html">links</a> to a&nbsp;Washington Post article by Desmond Lachman, another former IMF official, that makes many of the same points as Mr. Johnson's.</p>
<p>When the acknowledged experts in international&nbsp;economic catastrophe tell you you're sick, you'd better at least&nbsp;listen to&nbsp;their diagnosis and&nbsp;consider their recommended treatments.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2009/03/26/comparisions/index.html"></a>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>The Social Contract and Wall Street</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/03/the-social-contract-and-wall-s.php" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/robertow//2654.263417</id>
   
   <published>2009-03-26T20:51:20Z</published>
   <updated>2009-03-26T22:32:08Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[Josh's thoughtful piece today on the limits of the implicit, unspoken social contract we share regarding&nbsp;varying levels of&nbsp;compensation reminded me that, while I generally go along with some people making a little, some people making a lot, in the private...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>RobertoW</name>
      
   </author>
   
      <category term="Cafe" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
      <category term="Muckraker" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
      <category term="TPMDC" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="8688" label="social contract" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="2685" label="wall street" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/">
      <![CDATA[<p>Josh's <a href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/03/weve_been_in_the_midst.php">thoughtful piece</a> today on the limits of the implicit, unspoken social contract we share regarding&nbsp;varying levels of&nbsp;compensation reminded me that, while I generally go along with some people making a little, some people making a lot, in the private sector, I tend to be less sanguine and accepting&nbsp;about levels of remuneration at financial service companies.</p>
<p>My skepticism and, to some extent, my resentment began when I read&nbsp;a piece in the Wall Street Journal back in the 1990's.&nbsp; The article detailed&nbsp;a&nbsp;novice trader's&nbsp;purchase of a new Ferrarri with his bonus money - this in a article, I believe, about how compensation levels on Wall Street were actually <em>down</em> from the 1980's.&nbsp; It went on to&nbsp;casually mention that the trader had managed to produce returns year-to-date of 12%.</p>
<p>Yes, I know any trader capable of producing returns like that the last few years might actually be worth an Italian sports car or two.&nbsp; But what bothered me was, in that particular year, the S &amp; P 500 was up 12%.&nbsp; On its own.&nbsp;&nbsp;In other words, what the trader had achieved was nothing to brag about.&nbsp; I wondered how someone able to achieve results&nbsp;you or I or a class of fifth-graders could have obtained by purchasing an index fund&nbsp;on January 1st managed to earn a six-figure bonus from his employer.</p>
<p>Maybe I don't have the whole story, I told myself finally.&nbsp; Maybe the guy was having a bad year, for him.&nbsp; Maybe his supervisors saw great potential.&nbsp; Maybe this kind of thing -&nbsp;outsized rewards for&nbsp;paltry results&nbsp;- &nbsp;was some kind of anomaly.</p>
<p>But some core area of my neurocortex had been irritated. Year after year, I suddenly&nbsp;couldn't help noticing how many redundant&nbsp;financial products there were on the market, and how persistence and performance seemed almost randomly associated.</p>
<p>How is it possible, I asked myself, that&nbsp;all these&nbsp;mutual funds and fund families, the ones&nbsp;that underperform their competitors on not just a yearly, but a five-yearly, and ten-yearly basis, continue to exist?&nbsp; If this is a real business, part of mainstream capitalism, where's the competititveness?&nbsp; Where's the Darwinian struggle?&nbsp; If the auto industry ran like this, there'd be a car lot on every corner.&nbsp; Selling a different brand of car.</p>
<p>I thought of the sales staff, and traders, and managers of these&nbsp;predatory companies, making a good living off of somnolent or careless or captive investors (and, no doubt, salting away their own compensation in investments that actually managed to&nbsp;outdo the market). And my neurocortex became more and more inflamed.</p>
<p>The answer to my conundrum, of course, lay in the fact that&nbsp;these anemic, vampiric funds were able to pay hefty commissions to "investment advisors" to tout their products to the unwary, thereby insuring the continued existence of their prosperous mediocrity.&nbsp; Realizing this didn't make me feel any better.</p>
<p>One litany above all stuck in my head like a Saturday morning jingle - the continual self-congratulations of Wall Street professionals on their "development" of "innovative products" for the "market".&nbsp; Giving the&nbsp;suckers a new way to play three-card monte&nbsp;didn't seem to me something that qualified you for the&nbsp;Entrepreneurial Hall of Fame.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Then the riot of new products&nbsp;triggered by easy credit, the deregulation of derivatives, and the housing bubble pushed me over the top.&nbsp;&nbsp;I made a distinction in my mind: there was the part of the banking and credit system that acted as a responsible, even essential go-between, matching up sources of capital with worthy investments, insuring that opportunities providing a promising balance of risk and reward&nbsp;obtained necessary&nbsp;support for the good of the economy as a whole.</p>
<p>Then there was the&nbsp;Frankenstein's monster, that now had access to steroids, amphetamines and fertility drugs.&nbsp;And whose minions were outearning their staid, less&nbsp;flamboyant counterparts by expotential degrees.</p>
<p>I didn't like how this was going to play out.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Like Josh, I don't believe compensation in the private sector should be limited by law, or restrained by the forces of envy or animosity.&nbsp; If anything, the dark side of the financial services industry&nbsp;leads me to think that the real answer to predatory practices lies in more and better education from early on&nbsp;- in probability, in risk-taking, in frugal money management, in caveat emptor 101.&nbsp; No one can afford to be a complacent consumer of&nbsp;financial products&nbsp;anymore.</p>
<p>But given the scale of the debacle we've watch unfold the last two years, sensible regulation, too, has its part to play&nbsp;in patching together&nbsp;a social contract frayed by&nbsp;all those products developed, schemes devised, and games played, at a level and to a degree that finally managed to threaten&nbsp;those on the sidelines, and the very game itself.&nbsp;</p>
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<p><a href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/03/weve_been_in_the_midst.php"></a>&nbsp;</p>]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>&quot;Dear AIG, I Quit!&quot; - Some Sympathy for the Devil</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/03/dear-aig-i-quit---some-sympath.php" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/robertow//2654.263153</id>
   
   <published>2009-03-25T16:10:25Z</published>
   <updated>2009-03-25T17:36:42Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[Despite&nbsp;my initial misgivings, I took the trouble to read all of Jake deSantis's editorial in the NYT.&nbsp; I then took a minute to consider what Mr. deSantis said, and what I thought about it. I realized, first, how rare it...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>RobertoW</name>
      
   </author>
   
      <category term="Muckraker" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
      <category term="TPMDC" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="5601" label="AIG" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="16416" label="AIG-FP" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="16878" label="deSantis" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/">
      <![CDATA[<p>Despite&nbsp;my initial misgivings, I took the trouble to read all of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/25/opinion/25desantis.html?_r=2&amp;pagewanted=1&amp;ref=opinion">Jake deSantis's editorial </a>in the NYT.&nbsp; I then took a minute to consider what Mr. deSantis said, and what I thought about it.</p>
<p>I realized, first, how rare it is for&nbsp;the top traders and managers of the financial elite to&nbsp;speak out in public, about anything.&nbsp; For that reason, its members&nbsp;generally lack a recognizable or sympathetic face.&nbsp; Those of us outside their sphere tend to see them as a small, incestuous&nbsp;coterie of the&nbsp;well-connected&nbsp;and obscenely privileged,&nbsp;whose economic success seems independent of&nbsp;the consequences that impact the rest of us.</p>
<p>Needless to say, this is not&nbsp;exactly who they are, or at any rate this is&nbsp;not&nbsp;how Mr. deSantis sees himself.&nbsp; For that reason alone, the editorial was enlightening.&nbsp;Revealingly, Mr. deSantis makes much of his upbringing in a struggling, barely&nbsp;middle class home, and a scholarship to MIT: whatever his current station in life, Mr. deSantis clearly wants us to know that he wasn't born into easy circumstances, and that he has&nbsp;risen by dint of his own talents and efforts.&nbsp; Some sense of guilt still seems to cling to the onus of being rich.</p>
<p>Whatever the appeal of Mr.&nbsp;deSantis's&nbsp;personal particulars,&nbsp;he does makes critical points in his&nbsp;editorial us taxpayers should keep in mind: that he and his division had nothing to do with credit default swaps; that, as a profitable unit of AIG,&nbsp;the sale of his unit at a&nbsp; reasonable price will affect how much money AIG is able to pay back; that he and others in his division have&nbsp;continued to work long hours despite the siren calls of other financial services companies.</p>
<p>It's clear that Mr. deSantis and many others at AIG-FP have good reason to be upset at Mr. Liddy for not defending them before Congress.&nbsp;Mr. Liddy's&nbsp;failure to emphasize that most employees responsible for the credit default swaps have already left led directly to&nbsp;the wave of opprobrium unfairly breaking over&nbsp;their&nbsp;heads.&nbsp; As the clean-up team, not&nbsp;the wrecking crew,&nbsp;the least those remaining at AIG-FP should expect from the man they work for is a spirited defense.</p>
<p>Here Mr. deSantis is at his most sympathetic: being sold down the river by your boss is something many of us can relate to.</p>
<p>But it's easy to see why&nbsp;taking up a sympathy collection for Mr. deSantis and friends among the general public&nbsp;would be a fool's errand.&nbsp;&nbsp;Whatever his upbringing, Mr. deSantis displays the deafness of the compensation class he now occupies, though as someone who has toiled long hours myself - sometimes for a lot, sometimes for a little - I'm willing to attribute some of his self-centeredness and lack of perspective to sheer mind-numbing overwork.&nbsp; </p>
<p>In a world where circumstances beyond their control have ravaged the plans and expectations of many, many gifted and hardworking people in professions and industries around the globe completely unconnected with financial services, it is unlikely Mr. deSantis will find himself an object of special consideration for his efforts, however worthy they may be. He will have to find sympathy and understanding among family and friends, not in a blasted world&nbsp;where great effort for little gain is a commonplace.</p>
<p>I find myself returning again and again&nbsp;to the most jarring tone-deaf note in Mr.&nbsp;deSantis's editorial. Mr. deSantis goes out of his way to mention his&nbsp;willingness to work "for an annual salary of $1" out of "sense of duty" to AIG and the public. Well and good - taking a $1 where formerly you took much more is certainly a technical sacrifice.&nbsp; </p>
<p>But&nbsp;how many people, reading&nbsp;on, are going to let him retain&nbsp;credit for high honor&nbsp;and nobility when they&nbsp;come upon the actual&nbsp;net amount of the "retention payment" that nicely supplements Mr. deSantis's martyr-like salary of 100 cents&nbsp;- $742,006.40 "after taxes" -&nbsp;and this&nbsp;not, in all likelihood, the only retention payment Mr. deSantis has received.&nbsp; When Mr. deSantis claims that he can now&nbsp;donate this entire amount to charity without his family suffering "devastating losses", surely most people see less nobility in his&nbsp;$1 salary and sudden&nbsp;concern for others,&nbsp;and more of that earlier shade of guilt.</p>
<p>Mr. deSantis's mixed message only rendered his next statement a laugh-out-loud punch line:&nbsp;&nbsp;"(s)ome might argue that members of my profession have been overpaid, and I wouldn't disagree". </p>
<p>But when I stopped laughing, and went back to reflecting, it became clear how revealing this last statement truly is.&nbsp; Mr. deSantis, whose parents worked "multiple jobs" when "steel plants were closing" for tiny fractions of what he now makes,&nbsp;obviously only half-believes his own statements that his current station in life arises simply and cleanly from&nbsp;his great exertions and his frugal habits of "saving".</p>
<p>Through whatever nexus of talent, charm, old school ties, and other fortuitous circumstances, Mr. deSantis has done well, and I don't begrudge him his success.&nbsp; I believe wholeheartedly that he learned much from his parents, that he works hard, that he saves, and that, more than many other members of his profession, he does in fact care about people outside himself and his immediate circle.</p>
<p>I just wish he had spent more time on the overcompensation of those toiling in financial services, and less on his own glorious sacrifice.</p>
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<p>I</p>
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   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>&quot;Too Big?&quot; - Josh,  AIGFP is in better shape than you and Bebchuk think </title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/03/too-big---josh-aigfp-is-in-bet.php" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/robertow//2654.262485</id>
   
   <published>2009-03-20T18:10:26Z</published>
   <updated>2009-03-20T19:03:34Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[ Josh gets to the key question we should be asking these days regarding AIG in&nbsp;today's article of the day&nbsp;- is AIG really too big to fail? However,&nbsp;to illustrate the scope of the potential problem, he unknowingly perpetrates a misunderstanding....]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>RobertoW</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="5601" label="AIG" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="16416" label="AIG-FP" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="16162" label="AIGFP" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="9035" label="Bailout" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="16532" label="Pasciucco" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/">
      <![CDATA[<span lang="EN" style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-ansi-language: EN"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span lang="EN" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN">Josh gets to the key question we should be asking these days regarding AIG in&nbsp;today's <a href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/03/article_of_the_day.php"><font color="#800080">article of the day</font></a>&nbsp;- is AIG really too big to fail?</span><span style="COLOR: #333333"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span lang="EN" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN">However,&nbsp;to illustrate the scope of the potential problem, he unknowingly perpetrates a misunderstanding.</span><span style="COLOR: #333333"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span lang="EN" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN">Josh states that "AIGFP's potential derivative exposure stands at $1.6 trillion", as if this number is a ready equivalent of the size of the problem still to be tackled at AIGFP.&nbsp; This figure&nbsp;apparently derives from <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123751263240591203.html"><font color="#800080">Lucian Bebchuk's article</font></a> in the Wall Street Journal.&nbsp; Bebchuk, in turn, is getting it from AIG's own statements that $1.6 trillion&nbsp;represents its "notional derivative exposure".</span><span style="COLOR: #333333"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span lang="EN" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN">I will assume,&nbsp; because Josh does, that here AIG's exposure is simply AIGFP's exposure, so that we are talking about the current risks of AIGFP's business and not the shenanigans of any other division.&nbsp; </span><span style="COLOR: #333333"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span lang="EN" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN">$1.6 trillion is&nbsp;a scary number -&nbsp;but is&nbsp;it even timely?&nbsp; Moreover, we need to make sure we are parsing "notional derivative exposure" accurately. What does&nbsp;this verbiage&nbsp;actually mean?&nbsp;Is "notional derivative exposure" simply the sum of the worst-case outcome of all the firm's current derivative positions, including the value of all collateral that might need to be provided to support those positions?&nbsp; It could be. &nbsp;But it would only be scary if one, it's accurate and timely, and two,<em> it&nbsp;takes into account the extent to which AIGFP's current risk businesses&nbsp;are&nbsp;hedged.</em></span></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span lang="EN" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN">Gerry Pasciucco, the current chief operating officer of AIGFP, doesn't seem to think he's presiding over a $1.6 trillion potential nightmare.&nbsp; Actually, he's talking like there's not much to worry about any more.&nbsp; Since he worked at Morgan Stanley for 24 years in capital markets and risk assessment before coming in to close AIG-FP down, I suspect he may know what he's talking about.</span><span style="COLOR: #333333"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span style="COLOR: #333333">&nbsp;</span><span lang="EN" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN">As I've already<a href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/03/aig-cant-get-its-story-straigh.php"><font color="#800080"> blogged </font></a>- but it bears repeating -Pasciucco stated to the&nbsp; <a href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/03/article_of_the_day.php"><font color="#800080">Washington Post</font></a>&nbsp; <em>that the mortgage CDS's have been almost completely expunged</em>:</span><span style="COLOR: #333333"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span style="COLOR: black">In actuality, he said, nearly all the troublesome sectors of the business -- namely, the risky credit derivatives written on mortgage-backed securities -- are now out of the equation, as are the people who worked on them. That leaves a small number of employees to untangle the remaining trades in four main areas: commodities, interest rates, currency and equities -- most of which were fully hedged and have caused little problem.</span><span style="COLOR: #333333"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span style="COLOR: black">Here is the guy currently running AIGFP saying that the worst is behind us, that the most toxic waste is gone, and that whatever risks remain are properly covered (something AIG was actually good at before CDS's got out of control).</span><span style="COLOR: #333333"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span style="COLOR: black">So my question to Josh and Bebchuk is - why go on using AIG's $1.6 trillion&nbsp;scare-math as a benchmark to quantify the scope of the problem?</span><span style="COLOR: #333333"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"></span></span>&nbsp;</p>
<p dir="ltr" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"><span lang="EN" style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-ansi-language: EN"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"></span></span>&nbsp;</p>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span lang="EN" style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-ansi-language: EN"><a href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/03/article_of_the_day.php"><font color="#800080"></font></a><o:p></o:p></span>&nbsp;</p>]]>
      
   </content>
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<entry>
   <title>Dave, Rahm - good lord, man, what are you thinking?</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/03/dave-rahm---good-lord-man-what.php" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/robertow//2654.262263</id>
   
   <published>2009-03-19T17:15:54Z</published>
   <updated>2009-03-19T17:23:52Z</updated>
   
   <summary>I&apos;ve blogged already about the startling inconsistencies between AIG&apos;s statements about the risky business remaining at AIG-FP and statements from AIG-FP&apos;s own chief operating officer. What has prompted this second post are the startling claims by senior Obama officials that...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>RobertoW</name>
      
   </author>
   
      <category term="TPMDC" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="5601" label="AIG" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="14128" label="Axelrod" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="16432" label="Emmanuel" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="58" label="Obama" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/">
      <![CDATA[<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">I've blogged <a href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/03/aig-cant-get-its-story-straigh.php">already</a> about the startling inconsistencies between AIG's statements about the risky business remaining at AIG-FP and statements from AIG-FP's own chief operating officer.</font></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">What has prompted this second post are the startling claims by senior Obama officials that the AIG bonus scandal is a "distraction" and "not what people are talking about".</font></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">Like many other readers, I am a strong Obama supporter who remains completely mystified by the comments from David Axelrod and Rahl Emmanuel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Their disingenuous, "move on, folks, nothing to see here" remarks would only make sense to me if the framework and details of the AIG bailout had been orchestrated on their watch.</font></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">Why on earth aren't Obama officials reminding everyone that the AIG bailout was a Bush administration initiative?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Wouldn't it be more logical for this administration to say "hey, we don't want to do some of this stuff, but our predecessor made these commitments and we can't have the Federal Government going back on its word"?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>With so many initiatives being unveiled at a breath-taking pace, why would a scandal that, in its tip-of the-iceberg way, points to the serious need for structural reform in financial markets uniquely qualify as a "distraction"?</font></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">These comments reek of business-as-usual.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>True, the Democratic Party's Wall Street connections go back to before the Civil War and, thanks to generous campaign contributions, will always be with us to some degree. It's probably not realistic to expect a government fix of the credit markets without involving well-compensated and possibly culpable insiders, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal">especially when the structure of the bailout was set in place by a previous Republican administration</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>But isn't it self-defeating for an administration whose claim to fame is its broad-based populism to go out of its way to frame the discussion over AIG's bonuses by lining up with Rush Limbaugh, as if the main goal for key spokespersons on both side of the aisle was to deflate or redirect passion invested in anger at the reckless behavior of major financial institutions?</font></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">The long-lasting achievements of the Roosevelt New Deal were structural reforms: social security, minimum wages and maximum hours, the re-structuring of the banking system and so on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>The Obama administration, which clearly prides itself on its multitasking, needs to advance a reform agenda as the natural complement to its attempt to revive the economy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Otherwise, what looks like recovery will simply be another bubble waiting to burst.</font></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">And an administration that was looking like a breath of fresh air will begin to stink like a smoke-filled room.</font></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt">&nbsp;</p>]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>AIG can&apos;t get its story straight - has our anger been misdirected?</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/03/aig-cant-get-its-story-straigh.php" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/robertow//2654.262247</id>
   
   <published>2009-03-19T16:39:48Z</published>
   <updated>2009-03-19T16:48:09Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[There's a fascinating article in the Washington Post today&nbsp;visiting AIG-FP's Connecticut headquarters. Statement in the article appear to blatantly contradict prior statements by AIG in their white paper justifying the retention bonus payments According to the white paper, out of...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>RobertoW</name>
      
   </author>
   
      <category term="TPMDC" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="5601" label="AIG" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="16416" label="AIG-FP" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="16162" label="AIGFP" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="9035" label="Bailout" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="16418" label="Financial Products" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/">
      <![CDATA[<p><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><font color="#000000">There's a <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/18/AR2009031804104_2.html?hpid=topnews&amp;sid=ST2009031801503">fascinating article</a> in the Washington Post today&nbsp;visiting AIG-FP's Connecticut headquarters.</font></span></p>
<p><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><font color="#000000">Statement in the article appear to blatantly contradict prior statements by AIG in their <a href="http://static1.firedoglake.com/1/files//2009/03/ny12532-_432294-v7-white_paper_-_aigfp_retention_plan.pdf">white paper</a> justifying the retention bonus payments </font></span></span></p><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><font color="#000000">According to the white paper, out of 25 <span lang="EN" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN">AIG-FP risk businesses or books,"5 books are almost completely wound down".<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>However, the WaPo article quotes Gerry Pasciucco, the firm's chief operating officer, as stating that "</span>nearly all the troublesome sectors of the business -- namely, the risky credit derivatives written on mortgage-backed securities -- are now out of the equation, as are the people who worked on them. That leaves a small number of employees to untangle the remaining trades in four main areas: commodities, interest rates, currency and equities -- most of which were fully hedged and have caused little problem."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>He goes on to say that the people receiving retention bonuses "are replaceable. If we were running a long-term business, we could probably replace them over time, not all at the same time."</font></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><font color="#000000">To some degree, the very lack of transparency in the AIG bailout seems to have led to a major misunderstanding inside AIG about the nature of AIG-FP's remaining business and the status, responsibilities and culpability of its remaining employees.</font></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><font color="#000000">If what Pasciucco says is true, then, on the one hand, the current employees don't deserve the wrath of taxpayers for taking unconscionable amount of money after having wrecked the world financial system - they're not the economy-wreckers, but the clean-up crew.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>On the other hand, the amount of money they are receiving regardless of performance seems outsized if they are indeed "replaceable", and are simply winding down positions created by others.</font></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><font color="#000000">The article makes a good point: if all the people in place at AIG-FP actively hedging all those commodity, interest rate, currency and equity positions leave, it will create "the biggest naked position on Wall Street" for "everybody" to "exploit".<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>The AIG-FP employees would also likely end up at AIG-FP's counterparties with exploitable inside knowledge of those positions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>So driving everyone currently at AIG-FP out the door through misplaced bonus fury would indeed be counterproductive.</font></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><font color="#000000">Still, the notion that AIG executives have been shopping, that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</span>somehow entire credit markets would seize up if <span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</span>key AIG-FP employees weren't retained via generous compensation (because only they understood the complex basket of bespoke mortgage-based structured investment vehicles they created) seems to be utter hooey.&nbsp; Their failure to make clear what is currently going on at AIG-FP has helped misdirect outrage and anger toward employees who, while by most standards are excessively compensated, have jack squat to do with Joseph Cassano's criminal conspiracy to profit from his division's reckless trades.</font></p>
<p></span></span>&nbsp;</p>]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Beyond the Bonuses - key FAQ about AIG and AIGFP</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/03/beyond-the-bonuses---key-faq-a.php" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/robertow//2654.261859</id>
   
   <published>2009-03-17T17:15:23Z</published>
   <updated>2009-03-17T17:27:39Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[According to the AIG White Paper, 5 out of AIGFP's&nbsp;25 risk businesses or "books"&nbsp;are "almost completely wound down".&nbsp; Does AIGFP have a time table for closing the balance of its active hedges and unwinding its remaining complex transactions? &nbsp; Do...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>RobertoW</name>
      
   </author>
   
      <category term="Muckraker" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
      <category term="TPMDC" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="5601" label="AIG" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="16162" label="AIGFP" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/">
      <![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3"><a href="http://static1.firedoglake.com/1/files//2009/03/ny12532-_432294-v7-white_paper_-_aigfp_retention_plan.pdf">According to the AIG White Paper</a>, 5 out of AIGFP's&nbsp;25 risk businesses or "books"&nbsp;are "almost completely wound down".<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Does AIGFP have a time table for closing the balance of its active hedges and unwinding its remaining complex transactions? </font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3"></font>&nbsp;</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">Do the traders and risk managers at AIGFP have any incentive to expedite the clean-up?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Or will they continue to receive sizeable compensation for the duration of the operation, giving them a reason to proceed at a leisurely pace?</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">What priorities have been established for the unwinding of AIGFP's<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>positions?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Which books and which counterparties are being favored, and why?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>What cost-benefit analysis has being conducted on alternate actions?</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font size="3"><font color="#000000"><font face="Times New Roman">AIGFP is headquartered in <st1:State w:st="on">Connecticut</st1:State> but operates out of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">London</st1:City></st1:place>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN">What government agencies or parties are specifically responsible for oversight of AIGFP's activities?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Where does the buck - pardon me, the 165 billion bucks and counting - stop?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>If there are conflicting regulatory jurisdictions, nationally and internationally, is there a clear cut division of responsibility, or do the regulatory parties involved have an ad hoc committee to oversee AIGFP?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN"><font size="3"><font color="#000000"><font face="Times New Roman">Is the Obama administration going to make sure that the G20 meeting takes up the question of regulatory evasion by entities like AIGFP?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span></font></font></font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">Does anyone represent the interests of <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> taxpayers on the AIG board?</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">Given multiple calls for AIGFP to be sheared off from AIG and separately incorporated, in order to restore the reputation and safeguard the value of the taxpayer-owned parent company, are there any impediments to immediately taking this critical step?</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">The single largest beneficiary of AIG largesse has been Goldman Sachs, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/17/goldman-sachs-goes-for-th_n_175638.html">to the tune of $12.6 Billion</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Does AIGFP have any remaining contracts with Goldman Sachs?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>If not, why were these contracts favored for settlement?</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3"></font>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN"><font size="3"><font color="#000000"><font face="Times New Roman">Henry Paulson, former CEO of Goldman Sachs and then-Treasury Secretary, consulted in September of 2008 with regulators and bankers to determine the fate of the most wounded financial institutions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Among those on Paulson's team was Lloyd C. Blankfein, current CEO of Goldman Sachs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Lehman Brothers, a Goldman Sachs competitor, was allowed to fail.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>AIG, with sizeable obligations to Goldman, was not.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Why isn't this appearance of blatant favoritism and egregious conflict of interest at the heart of the AIG bailout being investigated by a congressional committee, government regulatory agency or state attorney general?<o:p></o:p></font></font></font></span></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN"><font size="3"><font color="#000000"><font face="Times New Roman">Given the retrenchments required of auto workers and the term adjustments being asked of mortgage holders, why hasn't more pressure been brought to bear on AIGFP employees and counterparties?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Why hasn't bankruptcy law been amended to allow the modification of the most complex and troubling derivative contracts by a bankruptcy judge?<o:p></o:p></font></font></font></span></p>
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN"><font size="3"><font color="#000000"><font face="Times New Roman">Why hasn't special legislation been developed to define the rights and responsibilities of government rescued companies and their employees, and to properly endow the government with the powers required to protect the interests of taxpayers and the stability of the global financial system? <o:p></o:p></font></font></font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3"></font>&nbsp;</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt">&nbsp;</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt">&nbsp;</p>
<p></p>]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>AIGFP: Let&apos;s Make a Deal - Or Else</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/03/aigfp-lets-make-a-deal---or-el.php" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/robertow//2654.261753</id>
   
   <published>2009-03-16T23:07:37Z</published>
   <updated>2009-03-16T23:30:58Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[AIGFP and&nbsp;its key employees&nbsp;are under investigation by Andrew Cuomo,&nbsp;as well as by the SEC and the U.K.'s Serious Fraud Office.&nbsp; Given the cloud hanging over the legality of many of AIGFP's transactions and procedures, I see no reason for the...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>RobertoW</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="16144" label="AIG AIGFP" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/">
      <![CDATA[<p>AIGFP and&nbsp;its key employees&nbsp;are under investigation by <a href="http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/16/cuomo-seeks-aig-bonus-information/?hp">Andrew Cuomo</a>,&nbsp;as well as by the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/feb/12/insurance-regulators">SEC and the U.K.'s Serious Fraud Office</a>.&nbsp; Given the cloud hanging over the legality of many of AIGFP's transactions and procedures, I see no reason for the Treasury to quail at the thought of incurring possible lawsuits from disgruntled employees&nbsp;for withholding contractual bonuses.&nbsp; Nor, in an out-for-blood, hell-freezes-over&nbsp;climate in which Robert Reich and William Kristol actually agree about something - show AIG who's boss -&nbsp; is it likely any counterparty is going to try and take advantage of some esoteric legality to bring down the financial system by immediately demanding full coverage of their positions.&nbsp; </p>
<p>It's time Uncle Sam, as the ultimate guarantor for the world economy,&nbsp;just stood his ground and said "no" and began laying down the law for fair and equitable settlements in time of dire economic emergencies.&nbsp; This isn't about the sanctity of contracts.&nbsp; This is&nbsp;about the ability of government to effectively support the good of all versus the debilitating greed of a few.&nbsp; </p>
<p>We need the Treasury to speak up, loudly and clearly, with the financial equivalent of "millions for defense, but not one cent for tribute".&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayers and investors would champion such a move.</p>
<p>AIGFP needs to be separated from its healthy parent and put into temporary&nbsp;government receivership.&nbsp; The key employees required to unwind complex derivative positions and to maintain active hedging could be kept in place as employees of the U.S. Government. Their continued cooperation could be taken into account and offset against any legal issues they might face.</p>
<p>That's a bonus I could live with.</p>]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>The &quot;moral distinction&quot; between bondholders and derivative counterparties</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/03/the-moral-distinction-between.php" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/robertow//2654.260766</id>
   
   <published>2009-03-10T18:26:30Z</published>
   <updated>2009-03-10T18:51:54Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[This is in response to Josh's post on TMP reader MD, who took umbrage at reader RB&nbsp;selectively judging bondholders and derivative counterparties.&nbsp; &nbsp; I don't know if I'd go so far as to make a "moral distinction" between bondholders and...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>RobertoW</name>
      
   </author>
   
      <category term="TPMDC" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="15689" label="derivative counterparties credit default swaps CDS bonds" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/">
      <![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">This is in response to Josh's post on TMP reader MD, who took umbrage at reader RB&nbsp;selectively judging bondholders and derivative counterparties.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3"></font>&nbsp;</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">I don't know if I'd go so far as to make a "moral distinction" between bondholders and derivative counterparties. (My capacity for outrage at this point at anyone who tried to make&nbsp;huge amounts of money by compounding systemic risk the rest of us now have to assume is pretty much exhausted.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>On the other hand, to claim, as TPM reader MD does, that "both were just playing by the rules as they were and pursuing their own financial interests" is deceptive and disingenuous.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>It suggests a false equivalence where a key distinction&nbsp;needs to be made.</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">First, I want to be clear about who stands indicted&nbsp;as "derivative counterparties".<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>We're&nbsp;not concerned with holders of classic, publicly tradable derivatives - things like puts and calls that have been an essential part of western finance since the days of the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Dutch</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Republic</st1:PlaceType></st1:place>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Nor are we concerned with banks, insurance companies, pension plans, endowments, mutual or money funds, or any other party who used simple, straightforward contracts, whether publicly traded or not, to insure themselves against loss in the course of properly managing risk, and who would face the&nbsp;risk of seeing those contract terms altered&nbsp;in bankruptcy court.</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">The "derivative counterparties" who are in a class of their own are holders of complex instruments such as collateralized credit-default swaps, 95 percent of whose U.S. bank trading has been conducted <a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/63606.html?ref=fp2">by the 5 largest U.S. banks</a>.</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3"></font>&nbsp;</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">What makes these players different from bondholders?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>The answer is that, far from "just playing by the rules as they were", they were happy both to evade "the rules" entirely <span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</span>- by purchasing product purposely designed to be exempt from the financial industry regulations that apply to vanilla credit or insurance products - and to have rules written especially for them: as Josh has pointed out, the counterparties' derivatives, unlike bonds, are now protected from the reach of bankruptcy courts thanks to rule changes passed in 2005 after extensive input from securities industry lobbyists.</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">In fairness to many of these counterparties, it is true many of the same institutions also&nbsp;own vanilla investments like high-grade corporate bonds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>(Just as the same person can be both a wonderful parent and have a fatal attraction to gambling.)&nbsp; </font><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">The moral here isn't that derivative counterparties are evil, and bondholders are angels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>It's that holders of complex derivatives had no problem with laws being evaded or manipulated in their favor, and consciously&nbsp;participated in a dangerous game whose risks to themselves and the financial system they utterly failed to comprehend.&nbsp;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"></span></font>&nbsp;</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"></span>To pretend investing in credit default swaps was the same as buying bonds, that the players involved simply played by the rules and wanted to make money like everybody else, misses what was so damaging and reckless about the counterparties' behavior.&nbsp; It essentially condones the aggressive self-serving of the parties who created unregulated products, then manipulated the legislative process to insure holders of those products would receive preferential treatment in a bankruptcy, catering to their own and their clients' short-term greed without any regard for the well-being of the financial system that provided them all with a comfortable living. Remaining obtuse to this distinction, whether you call it&nbsp;"moral", or simply "practical", can</font><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;only help encourage such dangerous manipulation in the future.</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">But then, on the other hand, I'm a &nbsp;bondholder myself. Perhaps this is simple prejudice talking.</font></p>]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>AIG - too interconnected to fail, or too well-connected to fix?</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robertow/2009/03/aig---too-interconnected-to-fa.php" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/robertow//2654.260576</id>
   
   <published>2009-03-09T17:25:56Z</published>
   <updated>2009-03-09T17:45:40Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[There has been a steady stream of reports regarding the dire effect of AIG going bankrupt in the event of a shutoff of taxpayer funds. &nbsp; &nbsp;These have breathlessly warned of the financial system tottering as bank counterparties fall like...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>RobertoW</name>
      
   </author>
   
      <category term="TPMDC" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="15620" label="AIG bailout" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
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      <![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">There has been a steady stream of reports regarding the dire effect of AIG going bankrupt in the event of a shutoff of taxpayer funds. </font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font size="3"><font color="#000000"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</span>These have breathlessly warned of the financial system tottering as bank counterparties fall like dominos; of panicky policyholders around the world cashing out policies, forcing AIG's many insurance divisions to dump securities on an already prostrated market; and, <a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-nofail9-2009mar09,0,3141022.story">as reported in the L.A. Times today</a>, even of an airline industry imperiled as AIG's restructuring brings down an aircraft leasing company.</font></font></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font size="3"><font color="#000000"><font face="Times New Roman">I don't want to downplay the potential adverse impact of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</span>an AIG bankruptcy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>As a company with 71 insurance companies here and 176 other financial services subsidiaries around the world, AIG cannot be allowed to fail - that is, the healthy components of this giant cannot to allowed to fail.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>We do, however, need to recognize that parts of AIG have failed already. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</span></font></font></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">The key question that needed to be raised is this: why does AIG, as a taxpayer-owned entity,&nbsp;continue to remain in its toxic pre-bailout state as a hedge fund grafted onto a insurance company?</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">What would be the beneficial - and the adverse - consequences of spinning off the&nbsp;London financial-products division, where the&nbsp;deadliest derivatives trades are concentrated, from the rest of AIG?</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">From the point of view of the other subsidiaries, there is clearly no down side.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Instead of their profits subsidizing a vampire division, they would be free to stand on their own merits, subject to spin offs of their own over time, with the healthy components remaining together as a complex if viable entity with a greatly enhanced value.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>As majority shareholders in the restructured entity, taxpayers should also be pleased with such a divestment: finally there would be a concrete reason to hope at least a portion of their multibillion dollar investment will prosper over time.</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">But what of the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">London</st1:City></st1:place> financial products division, and its toxic load of killer credit default swaps?</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">To begin, whether financial products remains a subsidiary of the AIG or not, the taxpayers effectively own its radioactive portfolio, and, under current bankruptcy law, can't obtain relief from its counterparty claims in the courts (as the Financial Times reported on Friday).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>So while severing financial products from the parent company will enable AIG's survival as a healthy insurance giant, it still leaves open the question of what we do with the garbage it leaves behind in our lap.</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font size="3"><font color="#000000"><font face="Times New Roman">This is why it's critical that congress immediately rescind the provision of the 2005 Bankruptcy Law that puts derivatives contracts beyond the reach of a bankruptcy judge.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>If the housing market is in bad enough shape that bankruptcy judges are now empowered to alter terms of a mortgage contract, why shouldn't they be allowed to amend derivatives contracts whose strict enforcement favor a few well-placed counterparties at the expense of the entire global credit system?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span></font></font></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">Once derivatives are no longer a privileged category under bankruptcy law, the Treasury can surely sit down with representatives of financial products and their counterparties&nbsp;(as well&nbsp;as with foreign government&nbsp;officials if necessary)&nbsp;and negotiate a solution that, while still imposing bearable losses on the counterparties and a sustainable burden on the taxpayer, insures that all involved respect the higher interests of the public and the well-being of the world financial system.</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">What about the adverse consequences of a financial products spin off?</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font size="3"><font color="#000000"><font face="Times New Roman">For the counterparties to the financial products division, they are huge.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>As things stand, the AIG bailout can be presented as a bailout of the "world's largest insurance company", not a bailout of an "out-of-control overseas subsidiary with powerful counterparties protected by a fatal loophole in bankruptcy law". The dire consequences of the failure of the parent, with its worldwide scope and scale, can be used to effectively frighten money out of taxpayers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>The debate over AIG becomes framed in such a way that makes public subsidies appear absolutely necessary, essential to the continuance of Western Civilization as we know it - thanks to the self-serving creation of an artificial and absolutely dissolvable black hole too massive to fail.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span></font></font></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">At the same time, prolonging the status quo allows healthy divisions to continue to offset financial products' losses, an added cushion for the counterparties that would vanish in a corporate divorce.</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font size="3"><font color="#000000"><font face="Times New Roman">I don't see similar adverse consequences for AIG's other divisions, or for the taxpayers (or for Western Civilization, for that matter) from a financial products spin off.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>While taxpayers may end up having to bear additional losses - losses in financial products that otherwise would be covered by AIG's other divisions - these losses can be reduced through astute negotiations.&nbsp; Taxpayers also&nbsp;have as recompense the upside of the reconstituted parent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>At least with separation the toxic waste of one subsidiary no longer threatens the health and well-being of its siblings, and through them the world economy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span></font></font></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">There is one additional benefit I haven't mentioned of what I propose: the consequences of bold, decisive, public-interest-centered decision-making in the AIG case on the markets and the future behavior of market participants.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>While the counterparties may prefer operating in the shadows, leaching off healthy companies and the public coffers and indefinitely prolonging business as usual, it's clear that the rest of us cannot afford the status quo.&nbsp; Powerful measures must be taken and examples made.</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">We need to recognize that AIG is a Three Mile Island that's already happened.&nbsp; The worst we can do now is not clean it up, and so create a more fatal Chernobyl down the road. </font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></p>]]>
      
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