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The Great Disconnect Between Stocks and Jobs


How can the stock market hit new highs at the same time unemployment is hitting new highs? Simple. The market is up because corporate earnings are up. Corporate earnings are up because companies are cutting costs. And the biggest single cost they’re cutting is their payrolls. So they let people go and, presto, their balance sheets look better and their stock prices rise.

In the old-fashioned kind of recession decades ago, big companies laid off people with the expectation of rehiring them when the economy turned up. Then a few recessions back, companies started laying off people for good, never rehiring them even when the economy recovered.

In the Great Recession of 2008-2009, companies are going a step further. They’re using this sharp downturn to cut payrolls even below where they were when times were good. Outsourcing abroad, setting up shop in China and elsewhere, contracting out, replacing people with software and automated machines – they're doing whatever it takes to get payrolls down so earnings bounce up.

Caterpillar earned $404 million in the third quarter, or 64 cents a share. Analysts had expected only 5 cents. Caterpillar’s stock is up 165 percent since March. How did Caterpillar do it? Not by selling more bulldozers. It did it by cutting over 37,000 jobs.

The result, overall, is an asset-based recovery, not a Main Street recovery. Yes, the economy is growing again, but the surge in productivity is a mirage. Worker output per hour is skyrocketing because companies are generating almost as much output with fewer workers and fewer hours.

The Fed, meanwhile, has become an enabler to all this, making it as cheap as possible for companies to axe their employees. Money costs so little these days it’s easy to substitute capital for labor. It’s also easy to buy up foreign assets with cheap American money. And it’s now blissfully easy for Wall Street to borrow money almost free and buy all sorts of interests in foreign assets, especially commodities. That's why we're seeing the prices of foreign commodities and other assets go through the roof.

At the same time, the Treasury continues to be fixated on keeping banks afloat. The Administration's mortgage mitigation efforts are lagging. Small businesses are starved of credit. The White House has announced a "jobs summit," which is better than nothing but not nearly as good as pushiing immediately for a larger stimulus, a new jobs tax credit, and a WPA-style jobs program.

The Fed and the Teasury have, in effect, placed a huge bet on a recovery driven by asset prices. That’s a bad bet. The great disconnect between the stock market and jobs is pushing stock prices way out of line with the real economy. This isn't sustainable.

No economy can recover without consumers. Yet American consumers, who constitute 70 percent of the U.S. economy, are facing mounting job losses as well as pay cuts. They’re in no mood to buy and won’t be for some time.

Where is this heading? No place good. Without a major shift in policy -- both at the Fed and in the White House -- the economics point to a big stock-market correction and a double dip. The politics point to substantial losses for Democrats next year.

23 Comments

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Yep.

Every day that passes Obama's looking more and more like Hoover.

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Ya know, I think that's a pretty good observation.

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And every day that passes this R is looking more and more like a D.

C

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Yeh, but Hoover couldn't shot a hoop worth crap.

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At the height of the financial 'bubble' in the late '20's, Hoover (a Repub) predicted that poverty in America was about to be "abolished forever." (I actually can't believe that any of today's 'proper' free-marketeer Republican would ever utter such heresy) but aside from that I seriously doubt that Obama, unlike Hoover, believes "prosperity to be just around the corner.")

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Hoover's mistakes were many, but always he sought to keep wages up for the working man, prices up for the farmer (44% of the population), and to add jobs via public works.

What the country needed, though, was Warren Harding.

A depression earlier when he was Secretary of Commerce, Hoover chaired a jobs conference (watch out Obama) and called for the government via the Treasury to get involved in stimulating the economy. President Harding rejected that idea: “The excess stimulation from that source is to be reckoned a cause of trouble rather than a source of cure.”

The United States was out of that depression in short order.

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Rather like the-medicine-will-make-you-retch-violently-to-start-with-but-in-the-long-run-it'll-cure-you approach.

And now we have the pending health-care reform bill which if it passes will probably afford about 41 million of us health care (paid for by gov.), hand the health-care industry 41 million new customers (increasing their profits and revenues big time) and 'solve' absolutely nothing in the long run - nevermind sinking the federal budget even further.

I get your point.

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Funny how the outrageous pay for the top dogs never goes down even though that would immediately help profits go up isn't it?

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I don't remember the accounting rules, but I have this sense that to the extent that outrageous management incomes are derived from stock awards and stock options, the bottom line profit is unaffected.

That is, management is transferring shareholders' future value to itself, currently -- but then, why should shareholders care. They don't expect to be still around when the piper is paid.

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They can cut their incomes (which is what I was referring to) and those are pretty damned outrageous too in many, many instances.

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I have a job, but my wife and I agreed about not exchanging presents this Xmas.

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Quit exchanging wives if you really want to save money, Donal.

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There are hidden costs ...

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Oh and Dr. Reich - the disconnect originated in Washington DC.

C

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They're not just laying people off, they're cutting wages and benefits and setting "new norms" for various levels of employment. They turning a fifty cent 401K match into the new dollar match. They're turning an expensive high deductible health plan into the new cadillac coverage. They're turning 50K a year jobs into 40K a year jobs.

It's too late for a labor movement to halt this. What we need is for the government to represent laborers, who make up the vast majority of the population.

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"Worker output per hour is skyrocketing because companies are generating almost as much output with fewer workers and fewer hours."

Correct me if I am wrong, but if you own a business, isn't that exactly what you want? Isn't that how you keep your business profitable?

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It is. But there are obvious limits. People can only work so hard and what you really want is increasing demand for your product that you have to meet by expanding.

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...the surge in productivity is a mirage. Worker output per hour is skyrocketing because companies are generating almost as much output with fewer workers and fewer hours.

Contradictory nonsense. Impossible to know what he meant.

But productivity is skyrocketing due to technological advance and globalization is adding to the marginalization of American labor.

What fraction of the population produces the necessities of life; food, shelter, energy, transportion, clothing, communications, entertainment? 20%? 30%? 40%? An additional 10 or 20% provide some additional services and the grease which allows the wheels to turn. That leaves a very sizeable and increasing percentage of Americans with no economic function.

I think big money is betting on the death of the American middle class. I read that companies whose income is earned abroad are 50% more profitable than those whose income source is domestic. Roubini thinks asset prices are fueled by a huge carry trade bubble which will burst soon, leading banks and government to ruin. But I wonder if some smart Wall St. types haven't figured out a way around that.

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MF:
In my experience you are correct to a point. Modernization, automation and methodology do enhance profits. There is, also, a saying:"You can't get blood out of a turnip." In my experience, there is a point in labor utilization that causes a negative effect on productivity. For example -- increasing the work week by 150% will not increase production by 50%. Workers will pace themselves in order to physically hold up to the increased hours. Morale is reduced. Sick time increases. On the job injuries increase. The variables are infinite. Maybe it doesn't matter anymore, but at one time, the individual worker was taken into consideration.

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Some of the productivity gains come from reductions in direct labor costs of producing goods and services.

But a lot of companies were fat and sloppy about controlling general, sales and adminstrative costs. I think that a lot of productivity gains are coming from staff reductions in those areas. Since you're not hiring, a good chunk of HR can be let go. You can probably produce marketing brochures with a lot less staff. And with few new people coming aboard, you can cut back on the desktop help desk -- a lot of support calls are repetitive from the same people anyway.

The other thing is that the S&P 500 get a very large percentage of their revenues overseas -- many of them are global companies, not US companies. Their foreign operations are doing well and they are making more money as the dollar slides in value. This also helps their profits.

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On the evening of September 23, 1952, General Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Republican nominee for President of the United States, was scheduled to deliver a campaign speech in Cleveland, Ohio. That night however, his vice-presidential running mate, Richard M. Nixon, gave his famous "Checkers" speech defending himself from charges that he had received inappropriate financial gifts. Instead of his originally scheduled address, whose topic was inflation and "false prosperity", Eisenhower substituted his reaction to Nixon's televised appearance. The text of Ike's unspoken speech was published the next day in the Washington Post and Eisenhower essentially "the same" speech a month later in Troy, New York. But that later version of the speech, coming just a week and a half before election day, would have had little impact on framing the election campaign.

The Eisenhower speech's theme of "false prosperity" echoes elements of essayist and literary critic Kenneth Burke's satirical essay of twenty-two years earlier, "Waste – the future of prosperity," which Burke subsequently reprised in a 1958 essay, "Borrow. Spend. Buy. Waste. Want." The particular variety of waste that Eisenhower condemned in his speech was the Truman administration's policy of using massive rearmament spending to stimulate the economy -- a policy whose single-mindedly cynical deliberateness would be revealed in 1975 when National Security Council memorandum 68 (NSC-68) was declassified (see especially Fred Block's 1980 Politics and Society article, Economic Instability and Military Strength: The Paradoxes of the 1950 Rearmament Decision).

I want to quote resonating paragraphs from Burke's 1930, Ike's 1952 speech and NSC-68 and also to suggest that a profound amnesia and denial about the manifestly wasteful sources of "economic growth" massively constrain and distort American political discourse and thought -- both popular and academic.

Burke: "If all our people are to be kept straining at their jobs, the duty of the public as wasters becomes obvious...

"But by expanding this principle, we find even greater encouragement. For long we have worried about war, driven by a pre-industrial feeling that war is the enemy of mankind. But by the theory of the economic value of waste we find that war is the basis of culture. War is our great economic safety-valve. For if waste lets up, if people simply won't throw out things fast enough to create new needs in keeping with the increased output under improved methods of manufacture, we always have recourse to the still more thoroughgoing wastage of war. An intelligently managed war can leave whole nations to be rebuilt, thus providing work at peak productivity for millions of the surviving population."

Ike: "The inflation we suffer is not an accident; it is a policy. It is not, as the Administration would have us believe some queer and deadly kind of economic bacteria breathed into the atmosphere by Soviet communism.

"This is the way a recent edi­torial in a great metropolitan newspaper put it: "Inflation is the calculated policy of the White House on the labor front, the fiscal front, the agricultural front." The point and purpose of this policy I have already in­dicated: to fool the people with a deceptive prosperity. The method is very simple: to give more people more money that is worth less....

"There is in certain quarters the view that national prosperity depends on the production of armaments and that any reduc­tion in arms output might biring on another recession. Does this mean, then that the continued failure of our foreign policy is the only way to pay for the /failure /of our fiscal policy? According to this way of thinking, the success of our foreign policy would mean a depression."

NSC-68: " Furthermore, the United States could achieve a substantial absolute increase in output and could thereby increase the allocation of resources to a build-up of the economic and military strength of itself and its allies without suffering a decline in its real standard of living. Industrial production declined by 10 percent between the first quarter of 1948 and the last quarter of 1949, and by approximately one-fourth between 1944 and 1949. In March 1950 there were approximately 4,750,000 unemployed, as compared to 1,070,000 in 1943 and 670,000 in 1944. The gross national product declined slowly in 1949 from the peak reached in 1948 ($262 billion in 1948 to an annual rate of $256 billion in the last six months of 1949), and in terms of constant prices declined by about 20 percent between 1944 and 1948.

"With a high level of economic activity, the United States could soon attain a gross national product of $300 billion per year, as was pointed out in the President's Economic Report (January 1950). Progress in this direction would permit, and might itself be aided by, a buildup of the economic and military strength of the United States and the free world; furthermore, if a dynamic expansion of the economy were achieved, the necessary build-up could be accomplished without a decrease in the national standard of living because the required resources could be obtained by siphoning off a part of the annual increment in the gross national product. These are facts of fundamental importance in considering the courses of action open to the United States."

It's the WASTE, stupid. The stock market knows that the more unemployment there is, the more waste the federal government will be encouraged to buy. There is no alternative. As Kenneth Burke observed in his 1930 satire, "We have simply to make sure that the increase in the number of labor-saving devices does not shorten the hours of labor." Even Paul Krugman has dipped his toe in that water, as had Alec MacGillis of the Washington Post the week before. Larry Summers has tipped off Wall Street that the White House won't make any such "mistake": "It may be desirable [to the unemployed] to have a given amount of work shared among more people. But that's not as desirable [to Wall Street] as expanding the total amount of work."

Robert Reich, along with the AFL-CIO, appears to still be sitting on the fence on this one. Shame!

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The following quotation from Thomas Paine's "Rights of Man", published in 1791 and addressed to George Washington, is prescient:

"War is the common harvest of all those who participate in the division and expenditure of public money, in all countries. It is the art of "conquering at home": the object of it is an increase of revenue, and as revenue cannot be increased without taxes, a pretence must be made for expenditures. In reviewing the history of the English Government, its wars and its taxes, a bystander, not blinded by prejudice, nor warped by interest, would declare, that taxes were not raised to carry on wars, but that wars were raised to carry on taxes."

The contribution of Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, is that national debt is substituted for taxes!

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Well, back in 2009, it becomes apparent that it's time for the people in the middle to find something better to do than wait around for Wall Street or the Fed or the USTreas to bail us out. Better get busy in the back .40, growing chickens, broccoli, or cranking out wasteful widgets, or some such product generated by your friendly local POE (proprietor owned enterprise.)
It's time for back-to-basics microeconomics, and maybe the year of Jubilee too.

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