Goldman and JPMorgan -- The Two Winners When The Rest of America is Losing
The resurgence of JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs gives both banks more financial clout than any other players on the Street -- allowing both firms to lure talent from everywhere else on the Street with multi-million pay packages, giving both firms enough economic power to charge clients whopping fees, and bestowing on both firms even more political heft in Washington.
Where are the antitrusters when we need them? Alternatively, why isn't the government charging Goldman and JPMorgan a large insurance fee for classifying both firms as "too big to fail" and therefore automatically bailed out if the risks they take turn sour? Instead, we've ended up with two giants that now have most of the casino to themselves, are playing with poker chips backed by taxpayers, and have a big say in what the rules of the game are to be.
When JP Morgan repaid its federal bailout of $25 billion last month it was, like Goldman, freed from stricter government oversight. The freedom has also allowed JP, like Goldman, to take tougher and more vocal stands in Washington against proposed financial regulations they dislike.
JP is mounting a furious lobbying campaign against regulations that would funnel derivatives trading through exchanges where regulators can monitor them, and thereby crimp JP's profits. Now the Street's biggest derivatives player, JP has generated billions helping clients navigate these contracts and assuming counter-party risk in such transactions. Its derivatives contracts were valued at roughly $81 trillion at the end of the first quarter, representing 40 percent of the derivatives held by all banks, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. JP has played down its potential risk exposure from these derivatives contracts, of course, but anyone who's been paying attention over the last ten months knows that unregulated derivatives have been at the center of the storm.
The tumult on the Street has also given both firms extraordinary market power. That's where much of the current profits are coming from. JP used the crisis to snap up Bear Stearns in March and Washington Mutual last fall, with the amiable assistance of the FDIC. The deals have boosted JP's dominance in retail banking and prime brokerage, enabling it to charge its corporate clients heftier fees for lending and other financial services, and to corner more of the market in fixed-income and equities. JP also bolstered its earnings by helping other financial companies raise capital following the stress test results in May.
Antitrust law was designed to prevent just this sort of market power and political heft. The Justice Department or the Federal Trade Commission should investigate the new-found dominance of Goldman and JP -- and, if warranted, break them up. Alternatively, Congress should impose a surtax on the newly-exclusive group of Wall Street firms, most notably Goldman and JPMorgan, which are now backed by implicit government bailout insurance guaranteeing that, should they get into trouble, taxpayers will keep them afloat. The surtax would approximate the economic benefit to these firms of such government largesse, which I'd estimate to be at least 50 percent of their profits from here on.
When JP Morgan repaid its federal bailout of $25 billion last month it was, like Goldman, freed from stricter government oversight. The freedom has also allowed JP, like Goldman, to take tougher and more vocal stands in Washington against proposed financial regulations they dislike.
JP is mounting a furious lobbying campaign against regulations that would funnel derivatives trading through exchanges where regulators can monitor them, and thereby crimp JP's profits. Now the Street's biggest derivatives player, JP has generated billions helping clients navigate these contracts and assuming counter-party risk in such transactions. Its derivatives contracts were valued at roughly $81 trillion at the end of the first quarter, representing 40 percent of the derivatives held by all banks, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. JP has played down its potential risk exposure from these derivatives contracts, of course, but anyone who's been paying attention over the last ten months knows that unregulated derivatives have been at the center of the storm.
The tumult on the Street has also given both firms extraordinary market power. That's where much of the current profits are coming from. JP used the crisis to snap up Bear Stearns in March and Washington Mutual last fall, with the amiable assistance of the Treasury. The deals have boosted JP's dominance in retail banking and prime brokerage, enabling it to charge its corporate clients heftier fees for lending and other financial services, and to corner more of the market in fixed-income and equities. JP also bolstered its earnings by helping other financial companies raise capital following the stress test results in May.
Antitrust law was designed to prevent just this sort of market power and political heft. The Justice Department or the Federal Trade Commission should investigate the new-found dominance of Goldman and JP -- and, if warranted, break them up. Alternatively, Congress should impose a surtax on the newly-exclusive group of Wall Street firms, most notably Goldman and JPMorgan, which are now backed by implicit government bailout insurance guaranteeing that, should they get into trouble, taxpayers will keep them afloat. The surtax would approximate the economic benefit to these firms of such government largesse, which I'd estimate to be at least 50 percent of their profits from here on.













Brilliant, can't agree more.
July 16, 2009 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
What 50 percent? Both firms and their managers would be gone if the government had let them pull the trigger on the guns they were holding to their own heads.
Instead, the insurance premium should be based on the assumption that this will happen again in 20 years, so about $25 billion a year prorated by market share...
July 16, 2009 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Balkanize the behemoths. Monopoly power, monopoly profits and monopoly-bonuses have got to go. Now, more than ever.
July 16, 2009 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I couldn't agree more. Spitzer did some finger pointing this morning also - along with estimating unemployment to be more like 20%.
T. Roosevelt in 1907 did call people of great wealth "malefactors." Beginning from his assumption should be the 'guiding light' in assessing anything happening in the financial sector.
July 16, 2009 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like the ins idea. Whatever happened to the tax on derivatives??
July 16, 2009 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
An antitrust action against these guys would go on for years--eight to ten wouldn't surprise me. The only way to get it done in a reasonable amount of time is a "systemic risk tax" of some kind that gives them an incentive to break themselves up.
I thought that something like that was part of the administration's financial reform proposal. Regardless, we don't have much time to get it done. We just have a narrow window in which the wrath of the people will outweigh the pressue these two new behemoths can bring to bear in the collective mind of Congress.
I think pressure to reform will decrease with the unemployment rate, which puts anyone who wants reform into a morally tricky position.
July 16, 2009 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are far too optimistic. The window of time for bringing about reform closed last year. As soon as the government adopted the TARP program and followed that by providing massive amounts to AIG that enabled it to pay fully on credit default swaps that otherwise were worthless, the pressure was off. These firms will never allow themselves even to be effectively regulated, much less broken up.
July 16, 2009 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree in principle, but think the implementation will never happen.
After all, now that JP and Goldman are back in business, the economic calamity has been solved, right?
July 16, 2009 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just got notified from (JP Morgan)Chase that they are raising my minimum credit card payment by 150%. Can't anything be done about these people.
July 16, 2009 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. Pay off your balance. Or switch to a different credit card.
July 16, 2009 9:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Use the Sherman Act and bring back Glass Steagal, baby.
July 16, 2009 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Robert Reich meltdown over the actions of the president he endorsed.
July 16, 2009 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
He endorsed Bush/Paulson?
July 16, 2009 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reich capable of (1) supporting a democratic president, and (2) criticizing one of his policies... ASTOUNDING!! How do these liberals do it?!?!
- walk, chew gum, walk, gew chum...
dammit... so hard...
July 17, 2009 7:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Its derivatives contracts were valued at roughly $81 trillion at the end of the first quarter...
How could this possibly be a problem?
July 16, 2009 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly how do the activities of these two banks benefit the community?
What do they manufacture. What service do they offer? What added-value to they give? Who profits other than themselves? Where do the gains come from? Playing the market? That's good for America?
Its enough to want to bring back Gorbachov or even Stalin.
July 16, 2009 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
You should be careful what your write, Mr. GDRiver. Endorsing the policies of Gorbachev are understandable, but advocating Stalin's strategies, with the associated purges and gulags, is quite another. Stalin's version of communism killed millions.
July 17, 2009 9:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Based on antitrust law, you'd have to demonstrate that these companies are "monopolizing" the industry (it's actually the act of monopolizing that is illegal and not simply being a monopoly or wielding monopoly power) or abusing their monopoly power so as to block or limit competition.
To achieve this, you'd either have to demonstrate that the firms took actions that ran counter to their shorter-term interest in maximizing their profits but served a longer-term goal of consolidating market power or that their actions were designed to inhibit the ability of competitors to enter the market or compete.
Given that the firms' new-found market power is largely the result of "tumult on the Street," it may be very difficult to establish that they are not merely acting in a manner designed to maximize profits. Raising fees, attracting talent with large pay packages and even lobbying - no matter how furious - are all legitimate, profit-maximizing actions for a firm in their very favorable market position.
I wholeheartedly agree that this kind of power is dangerous but we may have to wait for competitors to emerge before that power can be legally challenged. Thankfully, the kind of profit these firms are realizing will attract competitors so the problem will likely iron itself out.
July 16, 2009 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you, worthy9 for your voice of reason and moderation. We do live, after all, in a free country. Furthermore, these two behemoths have repaid their government loans.
However, this directing of public scrutiny (as Mr. Reich has so eloquently done) upon their activities is appropriate in a free society. Let the people consider the merits or demerits (as we are doing here) of their business practices and respond accordingly in the marketplace. The government doesn't have to jump on every problem that ccomes along.
This is not a monopoly. There is still a lot of money floating around out there that is not in the power of JPM and GS to manipulate.
July 17, 2009 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nice to see true conservatives around here, no matter what their political labels. Logic, probity and common sense when viewing short- and long-term ramifications of certain actions? Preposterous!
July 17, 2009 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I know what you did in college, Carey Rowland, in that duplex on Highland Road.
July 17, 2009 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
With their irreproachable leverage with Congress, their superpower status in the financial sector, this two-headed, well-fed hydra will keep the sorry, dangerous game going with the same old, corrupt rules as before. Is that what you're telling us? Thanks for the warning. This is one of the best things you've contributed here.
And as GD river asks above: What good are Goldman and JP, really? If we're going sink further, why don't we just bite the bullet and go all the way. We may starve for awhile, but anything is better than this. At least we'll beg on our feet, not our knees. Why not dry up their taxpayer tit, let them combust, and try to rebuild a system that won't nurture gobbling dragons too big to fail?
July 16, 2009 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
The taxpayer tit should never have been extended to any of them. It would be good if the Feds would refuse to play along if they return to the pap after screwing up again.
And that should be the lesson of this whole comedy. No more bailouts for financial institutions, whether too big to fail or otherwise.
We need to get the money system back to ground zero so the American people can start over.
July 17, 2009 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
my comment here
July 16, 2009 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are either of these blessed institutions holding quantities of so-called 'toxic assets' on their books? Have the 'mark-to-model' accounting tricks approved this spring allowed them to enhance their reports artificially? The speed and size of the turnaround raises suspicion.
Even if none of this profit proves illusory, these firms produce nothing tangible. Even Intel, for which I have no great love and which would have turned a profit if not for that inconvenient EU fine, produces a commodity with actual real world usage. When actual production begins to make a profit again, there will be cause for a smile or two.
July 16, 2009 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember in the first Terminator movie when despite having a horrific explosion rip the flesh off it's metalic skeleton, the Terminator just twinkled his red eyes at you and kept coming and coming and coming ....?
Well this is exactly how I feel about Goldman.
They are too big to fail and no firestorm of financial disaster can burn them out of existence. They are immortal now. Obama is afraid to take them on. They are the corporate machine that owns us all right now, making billions and billions of dollars in an otherwise completely depressed world economy.
My God, what has been created here? Be afraid. Be very afraid.
July 16, 2009 8:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
This just isn't over. The function of a financial system is to effectively allocate capital resources, not manufacture nearly infinite amounts of illusionary wealth in order to skim as much off as possible. Essentially they have used an economic choke point to siphon value out of the rest of the economy. The better they get at it, the more isolated they become. When even the Wall Street Journal is starting to raise questions, the worm is really starting to turn. At the end of the day, these deluded fools are still just bankers, not South American drug lords.
I predict that within ten years, we will have the beginnings of a public banking system, in which local governments run their own banking/credit unions and use the profits as public income. They do a reasonably good job at roads, police, fire, etc. The private sector is good at innovation, while the public sector is good at stability. Do we really need all that much innovation in banking?
Call it the public option.
July 16, 2009 9:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great comment. That's why we vacillated between private and public banking for much of our history.
Time to see that sort of thinking revived, but perhaps one that modifies the existing systemt to have a more long-term horizon through the use of a smarter regulatory environment.
As Thomas Paine said, "A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom."
We are choking to death on precedent.
July 17, 2009 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Public or private banking? You raise a fundamental question in my mind...if the Fed is the nation's central banker, is it wholly owned by the government?
July 18, 2009 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
And if it were would it lead to another type of myopia? No simple answers to be sure.
July 18, 2009 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe it is South Dakota that already has such a public banking system and that it is working quite well, thank you very much. I second your suggestion, and say the sooner the better.
July 17, 2009 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Welcome to the market, Obama (and Bush)-Style. This is the natural outcome of providing government bailouts to industry. TARP was a bad idea from the beginning...and still a bad idea when TARP was changed to provide direct investments in banks. Allowing Goldman to become a commercial bank (with discount window access) was a bad idea...bailing out GM, AIG, et al, all bad ideas.
The solution is clear -- learn from our mistakes and don't repeat them. Pull commercial bank status from Goldman...add regulation to the CDS and derivative markets...and ALLOW THESE CAPITALISTS TO SUCCEED OR FAIL ON THEIR OWN.
July 16, 2009 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Back in the 1840-50s South Carolina had their own state-run bank and recycled the profit to pay off any borrowing. As far as I remember it worked quite well for those times. By McKinsey, VA most efficient deliverer of healthcare of any of the large systems including private.
Just an observation.
The figures being bandied about at the time of the big blow-up was $63-75 trillion CDSs and another $30 trill (I think) ABSs of all types. Were these numbers too low? Where does the $81 trill come from in an over-the-counter unregulated market?
I swear, if this happens again there are going to be those who actually want to string these buggers up.
July 17, 2009 12:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Did the banks pull off a bloodless coup here in the US and nobody noticed when they took over the government?
JP Morgan has $81 TRILLION in derivatives contracts, any losses of which will promptly be socialized for society to pay, while any gains will remain privatized and enjoyed by a only a few.
And yet howls echo across the land at the thought of a relatively mere 1.5 trillion to pay for healthcare reform.
It's disgusting.
July 17, 2009 7:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
The president said that saving our economy will probably saved the very people that caused the problem.
If the president steps in now and does something to further benefit Americans, he will be labled a socialist and be blamed for the end of capitalism or held up as a muslim and communist.
July 17, 2009 7:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Join a credit union near you today and drop off the banksters' greed grid.
July 17, 2009 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
As usual, Reich misses the real problem and therefore offers a solution that would leave us even worse off than before.
"Government bailout insurance" is something enjoyed by not only JPMorgan and Goldman, but Fannie, Freddie, and AIG as well. Right now the difference between Goldman and Fannie is that the taxpayer bailout of Goldman is IMPLICIT, whereas the taxpayer bailout of Fannie is EXPLICIT (thanks, Congress!). Rather than imposing a surtax, which transfers more of the nation's (and the world's) limited capital to the Washington idiots - Reich being one of them - who created the bailout insurance, let's eliminate the bailout insurance and let the greedy bankers fall on their faces. Our experience with the long list of bank failures over the past couple of years shows that the FDIC's insurance of our deposits will keep our money safe even while the executives of the banks are taking too much risk.
Another way to solve this problem without denying freedom to the average American is to stop patronizing the institutions that expect taxpayers to pay for their bad decisions AND stop voting for politicians who believe in such fairy tales as "too big to fail."
July 17, 2009 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well it's one of the classic paradoxes of the politics of capitalism -- which is why I've been a socialist for some 34 years, since I was a college freshman. The huge corporations are the ones that MOST need to be regulated or broken up, but then they are the ones with the MOST clout and more or less control the political process. So they control policy rather than the other way around. After all the whining about how government can never do anything right (which I don't find more persuasive than that private corporate behemoths can't either), we have the polar ice caps melting and a power elite that is effectively able to prevent a serious political opposition to bring the urgency of the issues as presented by folk like Jim Hansen to the same limelight as gays-in-the-military (to be sure, an issue of apocalyptic implications).
At any rate, this situation is what you need a powerful NONWIMPY NON-SocialDemocrat (but very vigorously and authentically democratic) AUTHENTIC SOCIALIST PARTY for. Without some kind of really powerful progressive formation, pretty much the big money talks, and its the LOSERS who get regulated rather than the winners, the OPPOSITE of the way things should be.
So the most wealthy and powerful get to be as greedy as they please, while the poor shmos get trashed for "greed" and the residents of homeless shelters (as happened to me) by the bureaucrats for our "privileges".
July 17, 2009 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cloudy,
Upon what example do you base your positive view of socialism? Countries with Socialism (or self-described): China, North Korea, Vietnam, Laos and Cuba. Others with Socialism specifically mentioned in their constitution: Bangladesh, Venezuela, Libya, India, Egypt, Portugal and Sri Lanka. Which ones have the freedoms and liberty and economic results you would want the US to emulate?
I agree with the quote, slightly modified that Capitalism is the worst economic system...except for all the other ones.
July 17, 2009 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink