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Does the Obama Plan for Reforming Wall Street Measure Up?
In a word: No.
The plan doesn't stop stop bankers from making huge, risky bets with other peoples’ money. It does increase capital requirements and oversight, but it doesn't require bankers to take their pay in long-term stock options or warrants, and it doesn't even hint that banks should go back to being partnerships instead of publicly-held corporations.
All this means traders still have very incentive to place big and often wildly risky bets as long as the potential winnings are big enough, and top executives have very little incentive to monitor what traders are up to as long as the traders are collecting large commissions on the bets.
Nor does the plan do anything to prevent banks from becoming too big to fail. It doesn't hint at a return to the days before the late 1990s when commercial banks were separate entities from investment banks -- before mammoth bank supermarkets like Citigroup came to be so tied up with so many other commercial and investment vehicles that they couldn't be allowed to go under. And there's not the slightest mention of antitrust, to break up the largest banks.
The plan does focus on a few conflicts of interest, such as how credit rating agencies are paid. And it does establish a new agency to oversee all forms of consumer loans -- thereby helping make sure borrowers know what they're getting into, and can comparison shop. But these are small potatoes relative to the size of the overall problem. The Fed is given new oversight powers, but there's no suggestion that regional Fed bank presidents, who already have a substantial oversight role, should be recruited from the ranks of people who are not bankers and don't have a big financial stake in keeping oversight to a minimum.
In short: It's a mere filigree of reform, a sheer gossamer of government. Wall Street must be toasting its good fortune. Unless Congress shows some spine, the great Wall Street meltdown of 2007 and 2008 -- which lead to the biggest taxpayer bailout in history, very likely the largest taxpayer losses on record, and the largest investor losses since 1929 -- will repeat itself within a decade, if not sooner.
In fact, the banks that have repaid their TARP money are already planning to resume supersize bonuses, even though many of them are still awash in toxic assets and their non-performing loans are up. Bad credit-card and commercial property debts are mounting. Foreclosures are soaring. Yet several of the big banks are showing profits. How are they pulling this off? First, they strong-armed the Financial Accounting Standards Board into allowing them to assign whatever value they wanted to all the junk on their balance sheets. Then they played hardball with the Treasury staffers whose so-called "stress tests" lapsed into little more than negotiations over numbers and probabilities. (The national unemployment rate is already approaching the highest unemployment rate in the stress tests.) Then they convinced investors that financials have hit bottom and were now good bets. Presto!
Watch your wallets. The Street is up to its old tricks. And the White House's so-called reform is little more than a whitewash.
The plan doesn't stop stop bankers from making huge, risky bets with other peoples’ money. It does increase capital requirements and oversight, but it doesn't require bankers to take their pay in long-term stock options or warrants, and it doesn't even hint that banks should go back to being partnerships instead of publicly-held corporations.
All this means traders still have very incentive to place big and often wildly risky bets as long as the potential winnings are big enough, and top executives have very little incentive to monitor what traders are up to as long as the traders are collecting large commissions on the bets.
Nor does the plan do anything to prevent banks from becoming too big to fail. It doesn't hint at a return to the days before the late 1990s when commercial banks were separate entities from investment banks -- before mammoth bank supermarkets like Citigroup came to be so tied up with so many other commercial and investment vehicles that they couldn't be allowed to go under. And there's not the slightest mention of antitrust, to break up the largest banks.
The plan does focus on a few conflicts of interest, such as how credit rating agencies are paid. And it does establish a new agency to oversee all forms of consumer loans -- thereby helping make sure borrowers know what they're getting into, and can comparison shop. But these are small potatoes relative to the size of the overall problem. The Fed is given new oversight powers, but there's no suggestion that regional Fed bank presidents, who already have a substantial oversight role, should be recruited from the ranks of people who are not bankers and don't have a big financial stake in keeping oversight to a minimum.
In short: It's a mere filigree of reform, a sheer gossamer of government. Wall Street must be toasting its good fortune. Unless Congress shows some spine, the great Wall Street meltdown of 2007 and 2008 -- which lead to the biggest taxpayer bailout in history, very likely the largest taxpayer losses on record, and the largest investor losses since 1929 -- will repeat itself within a decade, if not sooner.
In fact, the banks that have repaid their TARP money are already planning to resume supersize bonuses, even though many of them are still awash in toxic assets and their non-performing loans are up. Bad credit-card and commercial property debts are mounting. Foreclosures are soaring. Yet several of the big banks are showing profits. How are they pulling this off? First, they strong-armed the Financial Accounting Standards Board into allowing them to assign whatever value they wanted to all the junk on their balance sheets. Then they played hardball with the Treasury staffers whose so-called "stress tests" lapsed into little more than negotiations over numbers and probabilities. (The national unemployment rate is already approaching the highest unemployment rate in the stress tests.) Then they convinced investors that financials have hit bottom and were now good bets. Presto!
Watch your wallets. The Street is up to its old tricks. And the White House's so-called reform is little more than a whitewash.
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Yes, and just wait until Congress gets their hands on this plan and waters it down even further. We'll end up with basically nothing.
No change we can believe in, I'm afraid.
-- ARG
June 18, 2009 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
we know. this is as predictable as the sun rising.
so, you have walked in these powerful elite circles - what can we peons do about it?
June 18, 2009 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Joe Nocera's article in the NYT agreed the plan was very weak. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/18/business/18nocera.html?ref=business
Geithner has all the smarts of Charlie Brown from Peanuts, with the bankers as Lucy.
The guy is frankly a joke at anything but forking over taxpayer money. He was asleep at the Wall Street roulette wheel as the housing bubble inflated and mortgage fraud was rampant.
There is some indication Senators think the plan is a joke also:
An intriguing question was posed by Senator Michael Bennet, Democrat of Colorado. If the regulatory setup the administration is advocating had been in place not many months ago, would things be different now?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/19/business/19treasury.html?ref=business
June 19, 2009 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
How shocking that the Obama administration has come up with reforms that do nothing to restrain the gluttonous thieves of Wall Street! I'm simply agog that Geithner and Summers would come up with a plan that doesn't address the problems they helped create and fleeced the American people to solve.
June 19, 2009 12:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't be surprised if the 'recovery' stalls or disappears, commercial real estate and business bankruptcies rise along with more credit card default and foreclosures into 2010, causing the same 'too big to fail' banks returning for more government cash nest year.
Maybe then (after gorging on another Xmas 2009 of billions in bonuses) the administration and Congress will get serious about banking reform.
June 19, 2009 12:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is truly no surprise given the economic "team" that Obama assembled. Disappointing beyond words, but not surprising.
June 19, 2009 1:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let us not forget, that with no "Public Option" in the heathcare legislation, it will be a prime time to invest in Aetna and Pfizer and Merck and a good opportunity for Wall Street to make up some of their losses with a good investment in overpriced prescriptions, financed by you and I!
June 19, 2009 7:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I keep forgetting that my public servants are the same losers, assholes and bullies I had to deal with in junior high, except older.
There's no such thing as a philospher king.
June 19, 2009 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink