Senate Republicans and the Stimulus: Playing Politics When the Economy Burns
How do we get out of this downward plunge?
Regardless of your ideological stripe, you've got to see that when consumers and businesses stop spending and investing, there's only entity left to step into the breach. It's government. Major increases in government spending are necessary, and the spending must be on a very large scale. In the last several weeks the President has put forward the outlines of a stimulus plan, and has left it to the House and Senate to fill in the details. A tiny portion of the details that made it into the House version should be stripped away because they seem like old-fashioned pork. But most spending in the bill is absolutely appropriate. My worry is there's not nearly enough of spending to fill the shortfall in overall demand.
Yet at this very moment, Senate Republicans are seeking to strip the President's stimulus package of many of its spending provisions and substitute tax cuts. Part of this is pure pander: They know tax cuts are more popular with the public than government spending, even though spending is a far more effective way to stimulate the economy (more on this in a moment). Another part is pure partisan politics: Republicans are emboldened by Obama's willingness to court Republicans (taking three Republicans into his cabinet, bringing Republican leaders into the White House for consultations, putting all those business tax cuts into the stimulus bill in order to gain Republican favor) without getting anything at all back from the GOP. House Republicans snubbed the bill entirely. So, Senate Republicans say to themselves, what's to lose?
Plenty. Millions more jobs and a full-fledged Depression, for example.
Can we get real for a moment? Take a look at this chart, which comes from calculations by Mark Zandi and his colleagues at economy.com. You see that each dollar of spending has much more impact than each dollar of tax cut.
There are three reasons for this. First, most people who receive a tax cut don't spend all of it. They use part of it to pay down their debts or they save it. Most of us did one or the other last spring with that tax rebate. From the standpoint of any particular individual, paying down debts or saving may be smart behavior -- even commendable. But what's intelligent for an individual does not necessarily translate into what's good for the economy as a whole. The only way to get businesses to create or preserve jobs is through additional spending. And unlike tax cuts used to pay down personal debt or add to savings, every dollar of government spending flows directly into the economy and adds to overall demand.
Second, even that portion of a tax cut we might actually spend doesn't necessarily go into the American economy. It goes all over the world. I have nothing against creating or preserving the jobs of Asians who assemble those flat-panel TVs you see at the mall, for example, but right now we're trying to create or preserve jobs here in America. Sure, the retail workers at the mall who sell the flat-panel TV's might benefit, but remember we're talking about how to get the biggest bang for every dollar. When government spends to repair a highway or build a school or help pay for medical services, the money and the jobs stay here in America.
Finally, those who say cutting taxes on businesses is the best way to create or preserve jobs forget about the demand side. Even with a tax cut, businesses won't hire workers unless there are customers to buy what those workers produce. A government stimulus that creates jobs is a necessary precondition.
This isn't a matter of more or less government, however much Republicans and conservatives would like to wedge it in that old ideological box. The issue is how to revive the economy. When consumers and businesses can't or won't spend enough to keep the economy going, government has to be the spender of last resort. Period.
Yet at this very moment, Senate Republicans are seeking to strip the President's stimulus package of many of its spending provisions and substitute tax cuts. Part of this is pure pander: They know tax cuts are more popular with the public than government spending, even though spending is a far more effective way to stimulate the economy (more on this in a moment). Another part is pure partisan politics: Republicans are emboldened by Obama's willingness to court Republicans (taking three Republicans into his cabinet, bringing Republican leaders into the White House for consultations, putting all those business tax cuts into the stimulus bill in order to gain Republican favor) without getting anything at all back from the GOP. House Republicans snubbed the bill entirely. So, Senate Republicans say to themselves, what's to lose?
Plenty. Millions more jobs and a full-fledged Depression, for example.
Can we get real for a moment? Take a look at this chart, which comes from calculations by Mark Zandy and his colleagues at economy.com. You see that each dollar of spending has much more impact than each dollar of tax cut.
There are three reasons for this. First, most people who receive a tax cut don't spend all of it. They use part of it to pay down their debts or they save it. Most of us did one or the other last spring with that tax rebate. From the standpoint of any particular individual, paying down debts or saving may be smart behavior -- even commendable. But what's intelligent for an individual does not necessarily translate into what's good for the economy as a whole. The only way to get businesses to create or preserve jobs is through additional spending. And unlike tax cuts used to pay down personal debt or add to savings, every dollar of government spending flows directly into the economy and adds to overall demand.
Second, even that portion of a tax cut we might actually spend doesn't necessarily go into the American economy. It goes all over the world. I have nothing against creating or preserving the jobs of Asians who assemble those flat-panel TVs you see at the mall, for example, but right now we're trying to create or preserve jobs here in America. Sure, the retail workers at the mall who sell the flat-panel TV's might benefit, but remember we're talking about how to get the biggest bang for every dollar. When government spends to repair a highway or build a school or help pay for medical services, the money and the jobs stay here in America.
Finally, those who say cutting taxes on businesses is the best way to create or preserve jobs forget about the demand side. Even with a tax cut, businesses won't hire workers unless there are customers to buy what those workers produce. A government stimulus that creates jobs is a necessary precondition.
This isn't a matter of more or less government, however much Republicans and conservatives would like to wedge it in that old ideological box. The issue is how to revive the economy. When consumers and businesses can't or won't spend enough to keep the economy going, government has to be the spender of last resort. Period.
















I agree Mr. Reich. It's become apparent that the Republicans can only discuss things in the vein of ideology, that tax cuts can solve every problem. Even in the case of overwhelming evidence, that you've brought up, they appear to cling (pun intended) to the notion that tax cuts can save the day. That's the problem with bi-partisanship. It takes two people to see the problem and look at it honestly and intelligently, until republicans do that, Congress is going to continue to be gridlocked. "It's like these people take pride in being ignorant."
February 5, 2009 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
How can you agree with someone who's so inept he can't figure out where to locate the Read more break -- or in the alternative is so arrogant he thinks his postings should occupy six times the front page space of any other poster's -- and knock three or four other postings off the page, prematurely.
February 6, 2009 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I so disagree with your inference here, Ellen, and it has nothing to do with whether Sec. Reich in particular is a worthy contributor. It has always seemed to me that TPM would be much improved if there were fewer contributors who are the type that are familiar with blog software, and more that spend more of their time learning other things instead. Making sure things look nice and work right should be a manager/editor's job. Sometimes I even think there might be an inverse relationship between wisdom and understanding blogging software, and sometimes I find I don't want to suggest that I actually understand some of it just for that reason.
February 6, 2009 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out his blog, AA.
He's managed to use the "Read more" break properly in the past -- indeed, as recently as four days ago.
There may be one, but I know of no excuse for his not posting properly these last couple of days.
February 7, 2009 2:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Republicans only know from politics. In the end the public will remember who is for them and who is against.
February 5, 2009 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
All well and good, Bob Reich. But why isn't the President giving a speech to lay this out to Americans? He has the power to do that -- and he hasn't done it. Instead he is pandering to Republicans. So he not only emboldens them, he confuses the public.
February 5, 2009 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Theda, check the news today. He did give a speech. Charts and graphs would have been nice though. Nut he sounds tougher and less likely to bother with those chumps. Either way, they are voting tonight in the Senate.
You may be right about the confusing the public, though, but I think the media is waaaay over-hyping the idea that the public is no longer behind Obama's plans.
February 5, 2009 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Nut" should be "But"....sorry.
:)
February 5, 2009 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I doubt that his *plan* is recognizable by the time it gets through Congress, Dorn. How can you be for or agin something when you haven't the foggiest idea what that something is?
February 5, 2009 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly, Theda.
February 5, 2009 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why aren't you, ma'am?
February 5, 2009 9:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Republicans are emboldened
They are being played. I insist, as a working model until otherwise convinced, Prez is not a schmuck; nor did he go from state senator to president in four years by indulging in wishful thinking or poor planning. Any emboldening of the Pugs is purposeful; their hiccup of resistance is them taking the gambit.
I believe he is about to hoist the Pugnants on their own petard.
February 5, 2009 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sure hope you're right, jollyroger.
February 5, 2009 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, the contrary would presume that this preternaturally talented and intelligent guy is, in fact, a doofus, because only a doofus (as has been expounded at length in various threads) would actually think that the bipartisan jubilee has arrived.
February 5, 2009 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jolly, you make a good point. Obama is not a doofus.
But I can't see the end game he's angling for any better than the hapless pugs can.
Maybe that makes me a doofus. But hopeful, rather than hapless...
-- ARG
February 5, 2009 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like the point too! We're all gonna marvel if he pulls off a coup the likes of which we can't envision. Let it be so!
February 5, 2009 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see the end game but I do see his tactics.
It looks like he listened to my advice from early January. :-)
No more Could-Squared in his latest speech. Now he's being definitive and says "will" ... ala 'if we don't do something the shit will hit the fan'.
That's more like it!
Now if he'd call Sen. Lindsey Graham a pathetic posturing obstructionist in so many words, I'd be happy!!
February 5, 2009 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't watch Graham anymore without thinking of Butters off Southpark. Today was classic.
February 6, 2009 12:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
god, i hope you're right. msnbc said obama's going to speak to the country next week.
February 5, 2009 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's called Judo.
February 5, 2009 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fine, but how does the play work?
February 6, 2009 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sooner or later we all knew it would come down to this - the GOP's strategy for this Congress is scorched earth...resist everywhere, throw as much sh-t as possible against the wall and see if any sticks
We can certainly quibble about whether the President waited too long before firing back but I for one believe that courting Republicans, laying on as much sugar as possible and doing so as publicly as possible was the best strategy, the same strategy he's adopting with Iran "big carrots, bigger sticks"
The first is the necessary condition for the second and for eventual success.
No more Mr. Nice Guy Mister President
February 5, 2009 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorta. Still Mr. Nice Guy but not Mr. Pushover.
Obama gave the Repos several chances to get with the program, using kid gloves and all. The speech I saw tonight tells me they took the rope and are poised to hang themselves if they don't shape up PDQ.
But if they get hung to dry, Obama will still do it "nicely", I think.
February 5, 2009 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Organizing for America is holding over 5000 house parties over the next 7-10 days...go to one!!
February 5, 2009 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cry Havoc! And let loose the dogs of war...
February 5, 2009 11:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Has anyone noticed nada for the homeowners, STILL?
Oh well. One of the reasons I voted for Obama is to give the left enough rope to disprove the idea that Govt. can supplant the citizenry and tax us into prosperity.
This bill is a lot of things, and stimulus is last on the list. That's OK by me. Load up the pork, raise those taxes, and make life for job providers as difficult as possible. Do your best/worst. Leave no doubt that you have maxed out the left/Democrat's prescription for stimulating the economy. If it works, great. If it doesn't make it a definitive event. This is the best opportunity you'll ever have to make your point about Govt. spending.
February 5, 2009 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
It isn't just the Republicans, it's also the Blue Dogs like Nelson. Why are we letting them run the show?
February 5, 2009 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
And if MSNBC news coverage doesn't piss you off sufficiently, think back to 2001 and how the Democrats gave Bush his obscenely large tax cuts and his disastrously underfunded No Child Left Behind
February 5, 2009 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bush 2001 tax cuts ..estimated 10 year cost at the time - $1.6 Trillion
February 5, 2009 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
The GOP Senators who presided over the Senate Budget, Finance, and related committees during the years (late 90s - 2004) when the financial instruments that have sunk this nation were invented have zero economic credibility. They're the last people with any credibility to call the shots right now.
The GOP offers an outmoded, outdated economic model better suited to the era of the horse and buggy, the sailing ship, and candles than to a networked world. Their economics are suited to a world lit by candles.
Their ignorance is appalling, their intransigence is irresponsible.
They act as if they had nothing to do with this mess, and as if they now control whether we all sink or swim.
They're still playing partisan politics.
And badly.
They're downright embarrassing.
February 5, 2009 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't synthesize it well enough, but basically it appears that the GOP still holds to an economic model that fit the 1800s, when capital was required to build infrastructure like railroads and shipping lines.
That model placed a high value on 'investors' who could generate wealth by putting money into hard goods: iron, rails, hard goods.
The current economy has a large sector based on services that don't require 'capital' as much as they require t-h-i-n-k-i-n-g. -- Netscape was 'invented' by Andreeson while he was working for $7/hr in a work-study position.
-- Many web services are developed by creative coders who write applications for websites, mobiles, and eEducation businesses.
These new economic activities are not generated by 'investment' as much as they are generated by creative thinking and disciplined work habits. For these economic activities, Net Neutrality and a solid electric grid are critical. For these activities, 'investors' are not really relevant.
The GOP is stuck in the mindset of railroads and iron mills.
Their solutions only create more trouble, because they're so completely out-of-whack with much of today's economic behavior.
February 5, 2009 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like the thinking going on here... and elsewhere, among other things.
Good to see you here, rOTL! :)
February 5, 2009 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's kind of weird that you criticize them for being stuck in an old mindset, but then offer up Netscape as the counter-example. Don't get me wrong, I think you generally have the right idea, but your argument lost something when you moved from the general to the specific.
February 5, 2009 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, DF, talking to rOTL's. This is exciting!
February 5, 2009 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was trying to point out that the GOP notions of economics come out of Adam Smith's 'invisible hand' notions, rooted in the worldview of 1776 Edinburgh, at a time when an 'encyclopedia' was a brand-new concept. The railroad wouldn't happen for another 60 years, powered by the steam engine (which was powered by wood and coal/coke). It couldn't happen until iron making (for rails) mastered new technologies in the 1800s.
Creating a railroad was capital intensive -- it required money to buy land, to buy iron, to buy timber (for the railroad ties), to pay employees a pittance to sweat in the sun and pound huge iron 'nails' into the rails. American folk songs have generations of music sung by rail gangs to help them swing those hammers in rhythm.
Contrast with Andreeson, sitting at a computer.
True, it required capital to put together the companies that built that computer, and the phone lines (a government regulated utility) that would allow a 'browser' to interact with a 'web server'.
But the browser that Andreeson created came out of one guy's mind, while he was earning about $7/hour in a work-study position, trying to solve a problem.
He didn't have to buy up steel, buy up timber, buy up steam engines, or pay people to swing hammers. He wrote code, by his lonesome, at a desk.
It is true that he built on 'intellectual infrastructure'. His education in K-12, his university experiences were years of 'investment' by the public.
But he didn't need to go to a bank, get loans, or hire hundreds (and thousands) of people in order to create the core code that's evolved into... Firefox/Mozilla. He wrote Mosaic (IIRC) sitting at a desk.
And he was not the only one who wrote a browser -- Perry Wei wrote a browser, but evidently wasn't interested in taking it commercial. Others also wrote browsers, including a kid in Australia who was a university math student.
None of them needed huge amounts of 'capital' to develop what we use to read TPM.
The whole idea that the GOP uses to base their bullshit swill about how tax cuts 'create jobs' is about as relevant as candles to light our way through the dark of night. It's nuts.
The GOP is using an economic model that's rooted in 1776, slightly revised in the early 20th century.
It's as if the GOP does not comprehend that we live in an age in which our 'rails' are fiber optic networks. In this world, public investment in anything that helps people remain healthy and learn is the best use of money.
The GOP is still stuck in the age of the hammer and the candle.
Those like myself, who want to live in the age of electronic communication and lifelong learning, surely look at the GOP and have to blink in order to believe these idiots ever get a paycheck. And the fact that they are getting GOVERNMENT paychecks to basically demolish government investments for the 'electronic age' -- and using 300-year old economic models to spout their stupidity -- is just horrifying.
And as for the US press -- they're about as useless and idiotic as the GOP. For any member of the press to allow the GOP to come on their shows and spout ideas from the 1770s, about 'tax cuts' and 'investment' without exposing those ideas as idiotic, is just plain irresponsible.
I'm as furious with the press as I am with the GOP.
Except for Rachel Maddow and Chris Matthews (and Bill Moyers), I have yet to see a really solid interview explaining the economic structures of 2009. To watch Fox or the other outlets, you'd think we're still living in the 1960s, and that's not only dangerous, it's irresponsible and childish.
I hope someone has the authority to rip the press about 1,000,000 new arseholes for their gutlessness in shilling on behalf of economic ideas that haven't been relevant since at least 1993, which was about the time the backbone of the Internet moved from being a DARPA project to a more widely used academic and educational tool.
Once that occurred in the early 1990s, the economic models fundamentally collapsed. (See Wikipedia for "Long Tail" as only one example.) The GOP doesn't seem to have figured that out.
Therefore, what they spout is irresponsible and dangerous.
Ideology trumps judgment, yet again.
February 6, 2009 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
The class war between the rich and the middle class is about to break right open.
There is little cover for the Republicans to hide behind now.
Quite simply, the Republicans are at war with, and want to destroy the middle class.
They kissed Wallstreets &ss while making Detroit crawl on its hands and knees. They want tax cuts for the rich, but now think all stimulus spending should be pulled from the stimulus bill.
The wealthy are at war with the middle class. The Republican party is their political tool. The Republican party's job is to make the rich richer, the powerful, more powerful, and the privileged more privileged. Since the poor have non of these, that means the Republican party must go after the Middle Class for skimming more of these things.
'Taxes' and 'Government' are euphemisms for the Middle Class, they want to shrink the middle class down to size so that they can murder it in the bath tub.
The lines are being drawn.
Things are going to get interesting.
If the bill is held up, there could be millions in the street by this summer and or perhaps this time next year. There is no place for them to go.
Guys like McConnell could find themselves looking to make a Shah of Iran type of exit from the United States (who will take them? Paraguay perhaps) - because it takes an army of tens of thousands to body guard against millions, and quite frankly, McConnell and his kind are too cheap for that.
February 5, 2009 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was horrified when the home purchase tax credit passed (voice vote?!?!?!)....Housing bubble burst got you depressed? Reinflate it
Today AFTER THE VOTE, the Joint Committee on Taxation reported to the Senate that this GOP stimulus boondoggle is likely to cost over $35 billion ..twice the cost the GOP said it would
Does that imbecile Ben Nelson still have a line on his cut list spreadsheet?
February 5, 2009 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me too! and ff comments in that thread...
February 5, 2009 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
We need to get out of the home subsidization business. It has bedeviled us since we started, 70+ years ago. Massive interest tax incentives aren't enough how about an extra 15k. Next up, 4% across the board, and we'll buy take those toxic securities too. And how did Fannie and Freddie do this week?
Einstein's Insanity definition is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. Here we go again!
February 6, 2009 12:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Theda,
I think Obama's on the right course. He has extended a hand to the Republicans, and they are biting it. Let that play out for a bit, and then the country sees just where the problem lies-- with the GOP.
February 5, 2009 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
President Obama knows how the game is played, and how to play the game. I see him feinting right, going left. Young street guy verses old, white red state, country club members, they ain't got a chance.
February 5, 2009 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
feinting right, going left
Watch his feet, not his eyes...
February 5, 2009 11:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
He is playing chess; they are playing checkers
Excellent blog, JR. Thanks.
February 6, 2009 7:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
All of this makes me even more pissed that the Minnesota supreme court is allowing itself to be played for idiots with superfluous challenges that will take months if not years to handle.
February 5, 2009 8:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sen. Lindsey Graham indicts self and Republicans nicely in the video on TPM.
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/02/stimulus_smackdown.php
But his "scenery chewing" definitely outplays Boxer minor effort in the segment available! Do Demos lack effective theatrical passion?
And if so, is that because they are a different brand of liars than their Repo colleagues?
February 5, 2009 9:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Voters will remember which party created this problem, no matter how much the repuglies try deflect the blame. Meanwhile we will work together to make sure these pieces of shit don't get elected their next cycle.
February 5, 2009 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I never leave after reading one of Robert Reich's commentaries without feeling it was time well spent and I learned something. I'd like to cherry-pick one comment from this one, however, and offer not so much a rebuttal as an aside. Mr. Reich says
I'm a member of the public...perhaps a little more left than some, and tax cuts aren't more popular with me than government spending is, when the purpose of the specific spending is well explained and defended as in the common good. As I remember, recent polls (Gallup, Pew, Harris) seem to indicate I'm not in the minority here. Time after time, when the public is asked whether it would tax itself for cleaner air, or cleaner water, or more efficient mass transit, it responds yes. Granted, this is yes in the abstract, but the degree that the public votes to pass bond issues for capital improvements is some evidence that the public isn't always tax averse. Even this past fall, with evidence that the economy was beginning to tank, my local community passed a bond issue supported by property taxes for the purpose of building a new animal shelter. (I voted with for the animals).
So, it seems to me, that we do ourselves no good accepting the proposition that the "public" is always tax averse--buying into the Republican meme. Strive instead to explicit, concrete, vivid, honest, and visual explanations of what the spending will achieve, and support the argument with concrete examples of what prior government spending achieved (we're still living on capital expenditures from the thirties, and proud of the built heritage bequeathed to us by the New Dealers), and I don't think the majority of the public will desert for empty promises of the Republican Ideologues.
February 5, 2009 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Strive instead to explicit, concrete, vivid, honest, and visual explanations "
speaking of which, and as a further aside, what do you think of Elizabeth Warren? Strikes me as perfect in COP and fits you descriptors well.
She called out Treasury on TARP, re "par for par" which she says it really 66 for us, 100 for banks, and suggests that Paulson may have lied outright.
February 5, 2009 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's gone on to greater things from the days she had her own corner of the Cafe. Why not have her go on to even greater things? She'd make a very good Public Economic Conscience. Is there such a position in DC? If not, perhaps it's about time. :-)
February 5, 2009 11:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
LPACTV: A Green Stimulus
http://www.larouchepac.com/news/2009/02/05/lpactv-green-stimulus.html
February 5, 2009 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure wish I was as optimistic as some of you - that the American people will hold this against the Republicans. I see the people around me buying the repub talking points - and don't even see how much sh-t we are in. The republicans that are still in office are representing these dumb ass people (like here in GA) - and the call of their simplistic sound bites is too irresistible to the attention deficit and basically ignorant American public.
February 5, 2009 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm saddened to see the same old political divides showing up in this time of crisis. We don't have time for this nonsense.
Where is the unity to set aside our differences, and recognize that we face a common enemy – the end of our economic system as we know it – and get on with the job of supporting our leaders as they seek answers to this unprecedented turn of events?
For decades, Americans have lived beyond our means, borrowing to consume today instead of saving for the future. It was a bad choice, and we need to get back on the road to sustainable standards of living. Painfully, that means we don't all get two SUVs and three massive TVs, because we didn't earn it. Blaming it on low interest rates is like blaming alcoholism on screw-top bottles: access to something doesn't compel over-use. Blaming it on cheaper goods is simply wrong, as long as only the wealthy can afford the high price of protectionism.
We are in trouble. We have never faced a situation where banks don't trust each other and the standard fiscal and monetary tools don't work and assets of all kinds are in free-fall and the situation is global. We can't devalue our way out of a global crisis, so we need to try different approaches, in the hope that one of them turns into a solution. We won't get it all right all the time, but the consequences of paralysis while we examine every single item to ensure that nothing is unclean are simply appalling.
No one wants to dump trillions of future taxpayers' dollars into a black hole, yet, that is not what is being proposed. Each "toxic asset" taken from financial institutions and held by the government is a claim on a cash flow that will, when we return to some form of normality, have value. Deduct that value from the trillions. Similarly, each project proposed for funding will create a stream of money moving into communities. Deduct those pay checks and invoices from the trillions.
Sure, there will be waste and abuse; isn't that always the case? But, until and unless someone comes up with a fool- proof way (no time for messing around, folks) of cutting away only the fat, we need to get on with rebuilding our economy.
It is time to stop pretending we have seen it all before. It is time to stop playing politics with the future of our economy. Those who cannot offer constructive assistance need to stand aside, now.
We don't have time for this nonsense.
February 6, 2009 12:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
"We have never faced a situation where banks don't trust each other and the standard fiscal and monetary tools don't work and assets of all kinds are in free-fall and the situation is global"
Except maybe for a number of "panics" etc. over the past 200 years or so, some of which were more global than others.
The banks pretty much trust each other now, the ones we have left.
Painting with a broad brush is not a good substitute for partisan attacks. You still need to use a brush of fine distinction to capture the look and feel of the situation.
How about we just let the crooks and gamblers take the losses, while the FDIC covers the relatively little folks, and then we get back to business but not as usual?
Some banks are doing fine. GS is now a commercial bank, apparently in excellent shape (zero direct exposure to mortgages). There may be CDO and CDS questions affecting the valuation of MBS instruments. Good discussion of toxic assets here:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/02/05/are_we_going_to_buy_the_bezzle/index.php
February 6, 2009 1:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the article Mr. Reich.
Count me as one of your half million.
I'm a Silicon Valley Engineer. The little start-up I worked for until January had to cut its work-force. It seems due to investor jitters, the Venture Capitalists funding start-ups are working with a lot less invested capital, thus have less to put into start-ups.
The long term result will be bad for everybody here in the Silican Valley, and I suspect that it won't be all that good for the rest of the economy either.
It seems to me that Republicans were so intent on recreating the Guilded Age that they forgot that it lead to the Great Depression
February 6, 2009 3:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Republicans were so intent on recreating the Guilded Age that they forgot that it lead to the Great Depression"
Brilliant summary of the past 20 years! Sadly, it looks to be entirely too accurate...
February 6, 2009 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
eds,
I'll grant that we have had some of these characteristics before, like banks not trusting each other.
But, the monetary and fiscal tools worked back then. But, housing and equities weren't in free-fall back then. But, it wasn't global back then. No, it wasn't (ask Asia, Latin America or the Middle East: it wasn't global).
This is different.
.
If the banks trusted each other now, we wouldn't have a virtual freeze on lending. It is very dangerous to underestimate this economy.
February 6, 2009 4:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
DOR --
You're just repeating empty slogans. I've pointed out that lending IS happening, that TARP coincided with relaxed interbank metrics. And I know people who are getting cheap home loans.
And no, the tools they had over the past 200 years didn't always work all that well. JP Morgan and friends stepped in about 100 years ago, for instance. Look up 'panics' at wikipedia.
I'm not arguing that today is identical to those other times, I'm arguing that such crashes or panics have happened before, whether the bubble was tulip bulb speculation, railroads, commodities, leveraged stocks, ... The fact that it is housing this time is incidental in the larger picture.
The problem is the assumption that lending is the solution to the excesses of debt. This is the real point the Republicans don't seem to be able to articulate effectively. Instead they beat around the bush with stupid jokes and stupid alternatives and then complain about partisanship. The Democrats with a wide consensus of economic opinion believe that further short term borrowing by the government is necessary and good for the country. I'm not so sure, but being stupid is not a good debate tactic at this time. It's critical that any borrowing and spending be done very well, and not just pay Peter to dig holes that Paul fills in -- that is wasteful churning.
They are currently running their Party further into the ground, as I see it. (I am not a member of any political party)
February 6, 2009 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for this excellent post and the very relevant info from Moody's Economy.com.
I have a question about these numbers: Do they work in reverse?
For example, if an across the board tax cut gives a multiplier of 1.03, then would an across the board tax increase "cost" us only 1.03 dollars in GDP for every dollar of revenue raised?
And, more to the point, if we ended the Bush era tax cuts immediately, would the result be only a loss of 0.29 dollars of GDP for every dollar of increased revenue?
If so, then why not do that right away? I don't know how much money the Bush tax cuts represent. But let's say it's $100 billion. If I'm reading this right, we could cancel those tax cuts today and the GDP would only be reduced by $29 billion. But we could take that $100 billion in new revenue, spend it on infrastructure, and increase our GDP by $159 billion. This gives a net increase of $130 billion in GDP for nothing -- free!
Mr. Reich, I'd appreciate your comment on whether this is an accurate reading of those numbers. Thanks!
-- ARG
February 6, 2009 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
Nice martial arts thinking there. If it's as easy as that, I cannot begin to understand how it has not been promoted that way. If it works that way, then there should be no tax cuts in the recovery bill, Obama should do his election-promise tax cuts separately. (Of course the point of these tax cuts is that they aren't really tax cuts, they are gifts to tax payers which can happen quickly and thus marginally increase economic activity in the short term).
Personally I don't "get" the stimulus factors, so I cannot sincerely argue one way or another; my first guess would be that "stimulus factors" are largely smoke and mirrors.
Let's think of it as an investment. The government is spending borrowed money and looking for a return on investment as the economy is stimulated.
We should also keep in mind debt service costs. If we borrow at 5%/yr to spend $100B, we have to pay back $5B/yr plus eventually the $100B. If we pay it back from taxes, that means the $100B has to not only stimulate the economy but stimulate tax revenues > $5B/yr, if it is to be self-sufficient. If we are to pay it off in 10 years, we need $13B/yr tax revenue, just from this one-time spending. To pay it off in 30yrs, we'd need about $7B/yr. If we never pay it off, we still need $5B/yr to pay simple interest. Let's use $5B. At 20% tax rate, that's $25B annual added taxable GDP, from a $100B investment. That would be a 25% annual return on investment *forever*. Does that seem plausible? Sounds like what Bernie Madoff promised, only about 2x as unbelievable.
If we try to pay it off in 10yrs we need $65B annual taxable GDP, or a 65% annual return on investment. Hello?
If we cut taxes, we will get even less revenue and thus need even more taxable increases in GDP. Therefore tax cuts will make it harder to pay off debt over the medium to long term. Is this figured into the plan and the net stimulus factors?
February 6, 2009 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
ARG - link for further reading/discussion:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/eds/2009/02/i-dont-get-stimulus-factors-an.php
February 6, 2009 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I observed all through the campaign that Obama was an expert with the ol' "enough rope" game.
Obama keeps sidling up to his opponents, saying "I think we have things in common" and the Repubs keep on moving right to distinguish themselves explicitly from Obama and "the left".
It is way more important to the Repugs to distinguish themselves from Obama and "the left", more important then solving the problems, more important than telling the truth, more important than anything! And Obama keeps on sidling up to compromise, and the Repugs keep moving right, until they move right off a cliff.
Now, after the Repubs go over the cliff, they do the Wile E. Coyote thing; they flail and shout "I'm flying, ha-ha!" until they look down.
It'll be time for Obama to spring the trap very soon. Maybe, just for a laugh, Obama will see if he can even get the Repugs to pull the lever on their own "upright jerker". That'll be fun, and he can do it.
Go back and read about the 30's Depression; the country was equally right wing, equally "devil take the hindmost", until they couldn't feed their kids. They turned left in a hurry after that.
Once again, the Repugs are like a crazy man who jumped off a tall building, to certain death. But he shouted "Look, Ma! I'm flying!", right up till he hits the ground.
February 6, 2009 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Senate repub's are exhibiting the feebleminded and petty part of their partisanship!
They offer NO solutions but pick apart 1% of the stimulus bill to the detrement of the Nation!!
However, Pelosi padded this bill and I hope they strip her Samoean pork out!
February 6, 2009 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
strip her Samoean pork
You wouldn't say that if you had ever tasted it. First they dig a pit in the sand...
February 7, 2009 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is Robert Reich a dwarf?
February 27, 2009 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink