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More Lemon Socialism -- And Why The Limits on Wall Street Pay Are For Show


Wall Street and its allies are in a tizzy over the Obama administration's proposed $500,000 limit on executive pay, saying it will threaten their ability to attract and retain executive talent. I do not mean to deprecate Wall Street executives when I point out that the far higher level of compensation they received in recent years has not exactly elicited talent -- at least not talent for much of anything other than the accumulation of personal wealth at the expense of millions of investors and of the economy overall. Wall Street compensation has been geared to short-term bets on high-leveraged investments, after which players quickly collect any winnings and run for cover. Many Streeters grew rich in the process but most of the rest of us are undeniably poorer. One additional pernicious side effect over the years has to lure many of America's most talented young people into prestigious MBA programs leading to jobs on the Street at starting pay higher than most Americans ever dreamed of and, with luck and hard work, subsequent shares in the firms' Ponzi-like pickings.

If one is looking for silver linings in the devastation of Wall Street it may be that this sort of talent will henceforth be less demanded and less rewarded -- not because of Obama's plan to limit pay of executives living off public bailouts but because the Street has imploded. The plan itself is a bit of a ruse. If truth be told, the $500,000 seems little more than a symbolic gesture designed to reassure the public that the large amounts about to be asked for the next stage of bank bailout -- likely far more than the $350 billion remaining in "TARP" (more on this in a moment) -- will not simply feather the nests of those who created the mess in the first place. The guidelines don't actually put a cap on total pay but only on salaries (usually a small portion of total pay), and even then apply only to firms receiving "exceptional assistance" -- presumably especially large bailouts in the tens of billions of dollar range, such as went to Citigroup and AIG -- rather than to those receiving run-of-the-mill bailouts amounting to, say, under ten billion. Most firms getting bailouts may continue to pay their executives whatever they want to pay them as long as they disclose it to their shareholders and give shareholders an opportunity to express their views about it.

So why is Wall Street so upset about the faux $500,000 limit? Precisely because of its symbolism. It's as if the administration is planning to subject executives of the banks that take the next dolop of bailout money to a kind of public shaming -- the equivalent of a scarlet G, for greed -- when the executives don't view the bailout that way at all. Few if any of them think they did anything wrong in the first place; they don't even view the bailout as a "bailout" but rather as a necessary injection of liquidity to keep credit markets going.

By the way, get ready for some really horrifying bailout numbers. Goldman Sachs -- not one to exaggerate the overall problem -- recently estimated the total value of troubled U.S. bank assets to be $5.7 trillion. Hence, do not be surprised if the next stage of the bank bailout dwarfs the cost of the stimulus package. My guess is that's reason the administration wants the stimulus bill approved before it fully unveils the price tag of the next bank bailout.

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Is the Federal Reserve not private? Did our Treasury
Secretary not just leave the Federal Reserve of NY? Should we be beating the drum about Geithner having a major conflict of interest?

Should we reign in the Federal Reserve's power?

Do tell.

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First of all, I think the government should make the Fed a government agency and subject to the control and oversight of congress.

Second I do no believe that any action taken to date of in the future will stave off a complete collapse of the banking system right now. Though I think that those in Washington do. I see any bail out as a complete waist of money and time. Just postponing the inevitable.

We need to nationalize the not so bad ones and close the horrible ones. Investors be damned. They took a risk and lost.

It is said, I know that "One should not put money into stock unless they are in a position to loose it all."

C

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Let's suppose we close down Citigroup and Bank of America.

Combined, the assets of those two banks alone are $3.88 trillion (per their 9/30/2008 balance sheets, here and here). What would be the effect on the country's financial system if they were closed?

I don't expect an answer -- hell, Reich hasn't got the foggiest idea and he claims to know something -- but before folks call for closing banks they should feel it incumbent upon themselves to describe the consequences.

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Combined, the assets of those two banks alone are $3.88 trillion (per their 9/30/2008 balance sheets, here and here). What would be the effect on the country's financial system if they were closed?

First, it's pretty clear that their assets are worth far less. Closing them isn't quite the idea. Rationalizing them is more like it.

It's always a big mess. Treasury and the Fed et al are delinquent if they don't have several contingency operations ready to roll.

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Enuf with the semantics ("closing" "rationalizing"), eds, and enuf with passing the question off to the secretive and esoteric "priests of high finance" -- Geithner and Summers -- answer the question.

What will be the result?

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Ellen,

do you know, if so, tell us?

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Nope.

Therefore, can't.

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The result depends on how they are "closed".

There's a difference between liquidation and nationalization, between Chapter 11 and Chapter 7.

It's not quibbling. How you "close" them can dramatically affect the outcome/result/effect. And how you spin the "closing" also has an effect since that drives confidence (up or down). The imaginary component of markets is generally closely related to confidence.

If you ask a confused question, don't expect a final answer in all it's gory details.

I've just started reading Soros. His pet notion is "reflexivity". His rhetoric is lacking, but it does cover if not define the truth of markets. My approach is different, but it allows me to understand his, and since he's said to have been UP 10% in 2008, maybe he's got something we should partake in.


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"If you ask a confused question, don't expect a final answer in all it's gory details."

Just read this. Hilarious.

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Is part of the problem that we let these banks get so large? With all the bank mergers of the past few decades, we've managed to concentrate assets in a few institutions so that a few mistakes made by the management of those companies can take down the whole economy. Maybe it's time to break up all these conglomerates? I'm not sure that the consolidation of the financial industry into a few mega-corporations is a problem, but I do think we need to be questioning whether such a large concentration of assets--and such a large concentration of both market and political power--is really healthy for the economy and the country. Diversity creates more competition and more innovation and also reduces the risk of a catastrophic collapse of an entire industry. Right now, it seems, too many eggs are all in the same few falling baskets. Maybe we should get ourselves a few more baskets, so the probability of them all being dropped at once diminishes?

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Combined, the assets of those two banks alone are $3.88 trillion (per their 9/30/2008 balance sheets, here and here). What would be the effect on the country's financial system if they were closed?

Well if they are worth so much, then they don't need TARP funds.

C

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They aren't worth that much. Their value is the difference between their assets (outstanding loans, shares, bonds and property) and their liabilities (consumer deposits, short-term inter-bank borrowings, and the bank's bonds issued in the credit market). They SAY their assets are worth 3.88 trillion. And we KNOW their liabilities are about 3.6 trillion. We also KNOW they are lying about the real value of their assets (which is a function of their expected cash-flow in terms of interest payments and principal). So their assets are probably worth somewhere between 3 and 3.3 trillion, if you're generous. Which means their net value is between negative 300 and negative 600 billion.

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Good answer!

I won't "quibble". :-)

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And people get after me when I say these banks have gone bust.

If -300 billion to -600 billion isn't bust, I don't know what is.

C

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Ellen - eds is right here. You don't close them down, you wipe out private shareholders, force the bondholders to take a 10 or 20% cut on their principal (depending on how big your cohones are). You cap the total compensation package of the bank and get a hardnosed Private Equity liquidator to spin off valuable divisions and franchises (like Citi's Smith Barney) and negotiate with borrowers.

Worst case scenario? the bond market might get into a bit of a tizzy - they don't like taking so-called haircuts. But interest rates on bank bonds won't rise much, they are mostly guaranteed by the government now. So the worst case scenario is that we make PIMCO's Bill Gross cry. That for me is not a bug, its a virtue!

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Only 10-20%?

How much of Citi (and separately, BAC) is now directly FDIC insured?

I'm also concerned about scams/fraud related to the complex synthetics.

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Eds- if you read this, could you post some of these concerns you have about the synthetics, etc. I think it'd be generally useful for people to get a grip on the various aspects of this (uh, me included).

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So why is Wall Street so upset about the faux $500,000 limit? Precisely because of its symbolism.

Hmmmmmmm, symbolism? Like the symbolism inherent in bailing out these corporations when they fail and allowing the corporation's shareholders and executives retain their wealth at the taxpayer's expense? It is giving them license to do it all over again in the future. There should be waaaaaaaaaaay more pain then having their execs have to 'settle' for $500K a year. It don't like the symbolism of this bailout at all...a much different message, one of unacceptability, should be sent.

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If you step back and look at the past 18 months as an exercise in disaster capitalism (ala Naomi Klein), things might look a lot different.

Homeowners took out $9T from home equity in the decade through 2006 (Soros citing Feldstein). Now many of them are not paying it back. So recent consumer excesses fomented by lending excesses are being re/funded by the taxpayers??

$5.7T "troubled" doesn't mean that's all loss, and it doesn't mean it's all the kind of loss that the government would expect to cover.

Except for synthetic instruments, crooks, and gamblers, and criminally stupid behavior at the SEC there would be no crisis. None of that should be covered by government money. None. The loan guarantees to Citi and BAC should be rescinded. Only fully collateralized super senior stock injections (or equivalent) should be used to stabilize financials.

As far as I can tell, the Recovery Bill is a socialistic lemon or a fraud. Get rid of the tax cuts and only spend where "stimulus factor" is both sky high and low risk. Of course I'm not arguing to abandon all safety nets for everyone!


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When is Reich going to figure out how to use the "Read more" page break?

Or does he just enjoy taking up excess space on the front page?

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Ellen,

he likes aggravating you.

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I hope the administration and Congress will consider ex post facto mitigation of this. It seems impossible from a game-strategic standpoint to do anything on the government side to recapitalize the banks without private investors getting wind of the plans and either withholding additional investments or actually pulling what remains out. One way for this to play out to the benefit (or at least not to the detriment) of taxpayers would be for government to go ahead and recapitalize the banks, without saying too much about what it gets in return. But a few years from now, when the sector is healthier again, go after them to pay back not just the bailout money, but the executive pay and bonuses that went out just before the barn door was closed.

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