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Prophetic or not?
Six days ago, when Josh asked whether Bill Keller and Michael Slackman were correct in their Times piece asserting that Iran's clerics had the upper hand, I responded with this email to Josh:
Was I right? Wrong? Or have events of the past week rendered any earlier assessment irrelevant? Your thoughts, please.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's "victory" in Iran's presidential election is no sign that the regime's hand has grown stronger. It is, in fact, a sign of the opposite: an admission of how much open deception and brute force is required to rule Iran's defiant ranks of reformers. The ayatollahs and Ahmadinejad certainly have the upper hand, but the die of revolution is being cast even as the government cracks down. This is no Tiananmen square. The Iranian people are too well educated, too Westernized, too experienced in bomb-making to be crushed under the heel of a fascist regime as brazen as Nazi Germany's. Thuggishly putting down the protests in Tehran will ensure that the widespread resistance goes underground, where it will lay the foundation for reform at a moment of it's own choosing.
Was I right? Wrong? Or have events of the past week rendered any earlier assessment irrelevant? Your thoughts, please.
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The clerics still have far too much influence over the politics of the country to be considered "westernized". No separation of church and state.
It would be like having a clergy in the presidential cabinet here.
June 21, 2009 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
CT, "Westernized" refers to the people of Iran -- in particular, the protesters -- not the clerics. Separation of church and state do not exist in the Islamic Republic's constitution, but in the minds of many there who yearn for freedom there.
UPDATE: As Josh's new post at this hour indicates, the Guardian Council has announced indications of massive voter fraud. Also authorities in Tehran say they have arrested Faezeh Hashemi - the eldest daughter of former President Rafsanjani. It is my belief she is being held essentially for ransom to keep Rafsanjani sidelined from further criticizing the clerical and political establishment.
June 22, 2009 1:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
“The more there are riots, the more repressive action will take place, and the more we face the danger of a right-wing takeover and eventually a fascist society.”
Martin Luther King Jr.
June 21, 2009 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
"They called me 'a teacher, a fomentor of violence.' I would say point blank, 'That is a lie.' I'm not for wanton violence, I'm for justice. I feel that if white people were attacked by Negroes-if the forces of law prove unable, or inadequate, or reluctant to protect those whites from those Negroes-then those white people should protect and defend themselves from those Negroes, using arms if necessary. And I feel that when the law fails to protect Negroes from whites' attack then those Negroes should use arms, if necessary, to defend themselves...I am speaking against and my fight is against white racists. I firmly believe that Negroes have the right to fight against these racists, by any means that are necessary."
Malcolm X
June 21, 2009 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink