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SCAAMD Trick or Treat: October Surprise
The BBC reports this morning that Syria is claiming four U.S. helicopter gunships struck a construction area in a village within its territory just across the border from Iraq, killing eight, including a boy and a woman. Apparently, the U.S. government has not responded to the Syrian claim.
It's here. The day we strongly suspected would come.
If the BBC report is true (and even if it isn't), the buzz now, on the eve of our general election, will be: "Why did American forces strike a village in Syria?"
The U.S. answer--whether forthcoming or not--will swerve the campaign focus back to foreign policy and away from the subject of economics, which has brought Barack Obama rapid and widespread gains in the past month and a half.
In particular, the topic of American news will shift to a Muslim region that spawned our current wars and the overall "war on terror." It is not a good day to be named Hussein. It is a better day if your name is McCain.
The reason for the strike is yet to be claimed by the White House. The eventual public explanation may be trumped up, true, or both. It may be purely political. Certainly the timing is curious.
SCAAMD's web site will be open Tuesday at 8 a.m. Central Time. If you think patrolling the press isn't necessary this late in the game, you underestimate the news value of military engagement with a terrorist state that could widen the Iraq war.
Dirty tricks are par for Halloween and presidential elections.
It's here. The day we strongly suspected would come.
If the BBC report is true (and even if it isn't), the buzz now, on the eve of our general election, will be: "Why did American forces strike a village in Syria?"
The U.S. answer--whether forthcoming or not--will swerve the campaign focus back to foreign policy and away from the subject of economics, which has brought Barack Obama rapid and widespread gains in the past month and a half.
In particular, the topic of American news will shift to a Muslim region that spawned our current wars and the overall "war on terror." It is not a good day to be named Hussein. It is a better day if your name is McCain.
The reason for the strike is yet to be claimed by the White House. The eventual public explanation may be trumped up, true, or both. It may be purely political. Certainly the timing is curious.
SCAAMD's web site will be open Tuesday at 8 a.m. Central Time. If you think patrolling the press isn't necessary this late in the game, you underestimate the news value of military engagement with a terrorist state that could widen the Iraq war.
Dirty tricks are par for Halloween and presidential elections.
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Kreist! You think the politicizing the DOJ isn't bad enough? Off we go to the next 'Cambodia'. This administration is criminal in its dereliction of duty. Thanks for your analysis.
October 27, 2008 2:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
If this is the best they can do for a traditional October Surprise, then I would say this is simply confirmation of the ass-kicking they are going to get in a week.
Relax, folks. If this is all they have, then we should be more than OK. It will take a lot more than some special forces ops on the other side of Syrian border to turn the tide.
October 27, 2008 6:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately this is NOT all they have. They also have some significant vote-suppression schemes, slanderous and racist whisper campaigns, probably the usual manipulations like too few voting machines in Dem precincts, and of course outright cheating by rigged voting machines. They're "Helping America Vote", you betcha.
October 27, 2008 8:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Still a chicken little view that completely discounts the precedent-changing nature of this election already. Those tactics work when the turnout for primaries is in the teens and enthusiasm is in the basement.
While I agree that they may use them in a last ditch effort to hold their position, but they will find them wholly ineffective if their strategy is to win the election. Just like all the racist and out-right lying negative ads coming from the neoconservatives wasn't enough to stop Barack.
I am not saying we should slack off or not do everything we can to make sure the general delivers on the promise inherent in the primaries, but flinching every time a republican says "Boo!" is why democratic candidates have only won three presidential elections in the last 40 years.
Confidence is an unappreciated trait and is why Barack is winning despite the leftward cries of republican sneakiness winning the day once again.
October 27, 2008 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
You sir, are starting to ruffle my feathers.
October 27, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ironically enough, I rarely see chicken little views from you.
October 28, 2008 7:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama hasn't any weakness in the area of foreign policy, so this is meaningless. It might even be non-political/legitimate in the terms Bushit views as legitimate.
Methinks "Ripper" is off his anti-conspirabunk meds again.
October 27, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's weakness lies not in foreign policy but in potential vulnerability to GOP efforts that try to tie his persona to fears of Muslim terrorism. That effort was exemplified just days ago here in Missouri when the GOP office in Christian County distributed fake dollar bills with Obama's face and the words "In Alha [sic] We Trust."
Attempting to fan fears of terrorism has long been a tactic of GOP candidates.
What is it you don't get about the potential news value of the administration's stepped up efforts across borders to kill "al-Qaida-linked" terrorists?
Syrian civilians killed in their territory? Further news today of a U.S. strike killing 20 in Waziristan? And the NY Times report today that Predator missile strikes in Pakistan have multiplied to 18 strikes since August, compared to 5 such strikes since in the first seven months of the year?
Sounds like an administration doing everything it can to turn the news to fears of Muslim terrorism.
Not saying it will work, but it is happening. That's not conspirabunk. That's today's headlines.
What meds have you failed to re-fill?
October 27, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jason, my post makes no predictions as to the efficacy of the October Surprise. I only point out the form it has taken and how it is likely to unfold over the next week. So what's with the accusations of "Chicken Little?"
And I recall someone referring to my warnings of a financial meltdown as "Chicken Little," too. Heard any good economic news lately?
I correctly predicted that continuing meltdown, the choice of Obama's running mate and even the hour his announcement of same would be released via text message.
Don't be such a jerk.
October 27, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
The economic meltdown was seen coming for years. It will take years for it to work itself out. Just like the last one and the one before that.
I call chicken little as I see it as you sometimes go off the reservation with very little provocation on certain topics. Anything that is a perceived McCain or republican strength does it. There is an instinctive overreaction by democrats to certain items and military action near an election is one of them. Perhaps it is simply the tone of your post? It seems very conspiratorial, which does nothing to help the liberal cause.
I tend to think things are bed enough without making the opposition into some sort of bogeyman.
October 28, 2008 8:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Distract with the right hand while doing the real trick with the left.
I suspect what we will seeing all manner of waving from the right hand while the sinister looking men in dark glasses check voter ID at the door and diebold machines do the rest.
Everything that happens from the Ashley Todd debacle on will be distractions of the right hand to lay the ground work for explaining away a McCain victory that contradicts the polls.
October 27, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
This October surprise may not be aimed at the election.
It could be the groundwork for the "National security threat" that The Patriot Act cites as justification for martial law. Remember the white house suspended Posse Comitatus earlier this year, and as of the first of this month an active duty army brigade is deployed on US soil for civilian police action. The army has been actively trying to find personnel willing to use force against their fellow citizens. Sounds like a fun unit.
October 27, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
We can occupy a nation of 22 million. What makes you think they could take over a country of 300 million militarily? We couldn't hold and occupy New York City, let alone the whole country.
October 28, 2008 8:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
If this were a manufactured October surprise, it would have happened a few weeks ago when it could have (maybe) done something to the election.
As it stands now, the mailing date for most absentee ballots is passing and many have already voted.
Moreover, this isn't going to affect any pocketbooks. When we have a market meltdown, it will take a lot divert the public's attention to a very dismal holiday season -- as retailers are already predicting.
Moreover, Sarah Palin's "I can see Russia" expertise in foreign policy is so outrageous that the last thing the GOP needs to do is focus on foreign policy.
In fact, if you want to claim an "October surprise", it would be the market meltdown that, as you pointed out, sealed the deal for Obama.
Now, I'm not suggesting in the least that it was manufactured, but before we claim that Syria is a manufactured event, one should keep that in the back of their heads.
Events unfold in a natural way. Why not pick on lowering gas prices as a GOP trick to take the sting out of the poor economy? Because, like the military action, there is no evidence that it is anything except a coincidence in timing with the election.
Gotta agree with the JEM characterization here.
October 27, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
What a shock. Yawn.
October 27, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ripper, I wish you well in your new endeavor. Truly. But remember that if all you end of doing is preaching to the choir, you will end up not making an impact. Like it or not, you will have to spend most of your time dealing with people who don't exactly think the way you do.
This will be challenging but worthwhile effort, I'm sure. Good luck.
October 27, 2008 11:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Manufactured or not, several news organizations are reporting that a US drone killed seven people inside Pakistan's border:
www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/10/26/pakistan.airstrike
And in case you missed it, last Thursday another US drone killed eight people at a madrasah inside Pakistan.
I wonder how long it will be before Senator McCain condemns these reckless actions.
October 27, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
While we do have to own our 'relationship' to media and stay vigilant in developing the best or most effective relationship we can have,
we need to stay focused on winning this election.
No matter what happens to distract us we need to stay focused. There are so many 'errors/cheating factors' going on already. I really want to start a campaign of getting everyone to email the media to ask for totals of all uncounted votes to be reported with regular results in each district.
The way things are going, I really think we need to patient as the counting of the 'uncounted' votes may be necessary in many states before results can be determined so we may not have results for days or weeks.
I got the impression that this action in Syria was special ops and we may not learn much more about it, ie they may never explain why they did it?
October 27, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately, the notice that:
"SCAAMD's web site will be open Tuesday at 8 a.m. Central Time."
has gotten lost in this narrative.
The website is incredible and Ripper deserves a standing ovation (at the least) and also some contributions ($$$) for his time (500 hours plus) in developing this site. This was a huge undertaking and it truly is terrific.
For all who really are concerned about the abuse of MSM and keeping them 'honest', this is indeed one of the best ways for US to do that.
Ripper, THANKS!
October 27, 2008 8:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, but he said it opens tomorrow at 8am.... which may be why...
October 27, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
A link would be nice if you expect hits. I could find none in the original blog.
October 27, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with Jason Roosevelt here. There are 8 days left. Already up to a third of voters have already cast their votes. The big Mo is with Obama in a way very few of us could have dreamed of in our wildest dreams, and the Republicans are pulling each others faces off over whose credit card bought the clothes for Sarah Palin and she is pulling the stunt of appearing at rallies in worn bluejeans now while McCain aides and RNC spokespeople splutter with embarrassment. Some day the Chicken Littles are going to have to reconcile themselves to the agony of victory. Landslide victory. They might just have to become republicans to get their daily dose of misery after this election.
October 27, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
They can join me in the republican party and try to help turn the primaries progressive on both sides of the aisle. An Obama landslide will mean a very different GOP in two years during the midterms. The neocons are going down in flames and not a moment too soon.
I hate to break it to "liberals", but the republican party won't disappear in a progressive America - it will simply change forms. Kind of like the democratic Congress did during Reagan's tenure and the DLC did during Clinton's and Baby Bush's.
Overreacting to your "enemy's" actions is why democrats have only won 3 out of the last 10 presidential elections. Obama is winning because he is cool and confident, not because he jumps at every shadow.
October 28, 2008 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink