richard f's Blog tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/richard_f//6169 2008-11-13T00:38:01Z 2008-10-27T22:52:15Z Movable Type Pro 4.21-en tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://14.243977-comment:3285390 <![CDATA[richard f Commented on Israel Celebrates Obama's Election While Olmert Calls For Return To '67 Lines by M.J. Rosenberg]]> 2008-11-13T00:38:01Z 2008-11-13T00:38:01Z Anybody who thinks Obama will be able to easily broker a peace agreement between Israelis and the Palestinians is drinking the Kool Aid. Israel doesn't have a government and while Livni is slightly ahead of Netyhanu in the polls, the smart money is that he will overtake her and win the election. On the Palestinian side, Abbas is still in a civil war with Hamas who won't recognize Israel. Obama needs to try to move forward but any peace agreement, at best, is years away.

]]> tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.240274-comment:3254515 richard f Commented on Poll: Obama Winning Florida Early Vote In Landslide by Eric Kleefeld 2008-10-27T22:52:15Z 2008-10-27T22:52:15Z Zogby is a Democrat but his reputation for accuracy is mixed. He was accurate in 2000 but strongly predicted a Kerry victory in 2004.

The IBD poll is suspect not becuase of any Republican ideology but because of its own figures. About a week ago, it showed Obama only leading by 2 points(and got extensive coverage on Drudge) but its breakdown, which they publish in great detail, showed people between 18-25 breaking for McCain by 3-1. Obviously something was seriously screwed up. Even their latest poll, showing Obama up by three, shows Obama ahead in the 18-25 category by 52 to 41. All the other polls show Obama ahead by at least 20 points in that age demographic.

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