've spent the past weekend trying to convince myself that Barak Obama cannot possibly lose this election. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight couldn't possibly be wrong, not a baseball stat prodigy who looks so much like the stereotypical young conservative. Surely if his methodology says it's over then the fat lady has sung (to mix a couple of old baseball metaphors). And then there's the final poll of the Columbus Dispatch - Obama by 6% in Ohio and they've never been wrong in their last one (oh, I know, in 2004 they called it dead even, but given the chicanery that went on in that election, a draw was probably the best call they could come up with. I don't imagine "stolen by Bush" was one of the outcomes they considered). Nevertheless, despite predictions that Obama will receive a mandate on Tuesday, the part of my brain that always gets in the way of confidence is keeping me from relaxing.
This isn't another election for me; in a sense it's my first election. I first became eligible to vote in 1972, and although I was an avowed Nixon hater, the handwriting was on the wall for George McGovern from the day he was nominated. McGovern got my vote but I didn't even bother to watch the election returns. In 1976, Jimmy Carter turned an initial overwhelming lead over Gerald Ford into narrow victory. Of course, after that, things went down hill. Even during the Clinton administrations, Republican polarization seemed to turn everything into an unseemly battle. Needless to say, my years of well-cultivated cynicism came in very handy when the elections of 2000 and 2004 were stolen.
To my complete surprise, the Obama campaign struck a chord in me from the beginning. Admittedly, I have a weakness for oratory (listening, not making) but in Obama's case what he said was every bit as significant as how it was said. Throughout the primaries and the election campaign there seemed to be building a feeling of inevitability - change for the better was coming. For the first time in my life, I feel that I am about to witness a watershed event that is truly for the good of the United States. The possibility of an Obama presidency - with its promise of so much intelligence, thoughtfulness and dignity - has led me to make an emotional investment in this election that I have never made before and almost certainly will never make again. In other words, not only is history about to be made, but because of Obama's ability to connect with millions of people as if he were talking to each one of us one at a time, a fairly cynical middle aged man such as myself actually feels that I am in some small way a direct participant in events.
So, if you haven't voted yet, let's all get to the polling places bright and early tomorrow. Nothing would be nicer than to know that Barak Obama will be President Elect Obama by about 9:00 pm Eastern Time on November 4, 2008.
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