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Week of September 9, 2007 - September 15, 2007

Oil prices


Borrowed from behind the Financial Times firewall:

Imagine a world in recession, where oil costs $50 per barrel. Which economies would be most affected? There are obvious losers. In Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer, oil accounts for 90 per cent of exports, which in turn represents almost two-thirds of the economy’s output.

Indeed, members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are more dependent on oil now than when prices fell sharply in 1985-86 and 1997-98. Exports plummeted in value after the Opec basket price fell from $27 a barrel to $13.50, and from $18.70 to $12.30, respectively. But in 1985 and 1997, oil exports were just 21 per cent of Opec’s gross domestic product, compared with 36 per cent now.

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Just two of the implications of the above that strike me are these:
First, if there is a recession and oil prices drop, then many, if not most, current Green Energy projects will no longer appear to be economically wise. What should be done? One possible answer is to mandate that oil prices stay at today's level, so that if producers drop prices, taxation would make up the difference. Obviously that would encourage OPEC to keep prices up, but from an environmental perspective that would be the goal, whether taxes or marketplace supply and demand sets the resulting price.

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Is it true?


Is it true that none of the major broadcast networks carried the Democratic response to the President's national address? They have their licenses from the FCC on the condition that they serve the public interest. It is generally and widely understood that such interest includes presenting to Americans the other side of any question that deserves national broadcast, for free, of the President's views.

I realize that lots of people watch cable instead of broadcast and indeed few in the Internet sphere pay much attention to broadcast. But it is still the medium that decides elections. Those who fear the bias of the MSM should be put on notice that Democrats may have a difficult time getting a fair hearing in 08.

To Wrap the World in Communications


In Iran five million new cellphone subscribers signed up in the first quarter of this year. That's more than the number of new subscribers in the United States.

China Mobile has about 500 million subscribers. That's of course more than the American population. CM will add the same number to its total within less than a decade.

Cellphones constitute one of the most widely distributed consumer products in Africa. In Africa they will create banking, credit, and purchasing infrastructure and will eclipse newspapers as a means for gathering information.

In less than 10 years, between 2 and 3 billion people globally will be cellphone users. This is by far the largest, fastest, and most important extension of communications capability ever seen.

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Reed Hundt

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