1. Castro's death will lead to a grassroots movement that opens the door to a new form of governance in Cuba.
2. The White House's purposeful provocation of Iran triggers a military engagement between American and Iranian ground forces.
3. Maliki's government falls, and the Administration tries to put Chalabi in his place.
4. The dollar drops steeply, causing the Fed to raise interest rates, which in turn kicks off a recessionary economy. Congress proposes a stimulus package that the President vetoes. Legislative gridlock ensues.

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Documentary Feature: "Deliver Us From Evil," "An Inconvenient Truth," "Iraq in Fragments," "Jesus Camp," "My Country, My Country."

Yes it would be better to be President but winning the Oscar would be kinda cool. What do you think of Al's chances?

The State of the Union is actually better than in six years: the country is united, focussed, interested, and informed. That's all bad news for the White House.

The President has lost the "ear" of the American people, according to the polls. That's because he has lost their trust. Mendacity did the deed; it's poetic coincidence that the Libby trial commences today, although as an aside one wonders if a juror who worked for Bob Woodward can be counted on to punish a lie even if proved.

Iraq -- mayhem, horror, venality, despair, waste and ignorance -- opened the doors of perception, and now everything the White House says is no longer taken at face value. What then follows?

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Over the years I've met most of the currently announced Democratic candidates, and I just pinch myself when I see the line-up. Senators Clinton, Edwards, Obama, and Dodd, Governors Richardson and Vilsack are just terrific people. They are each bright and capable. Person by person, they are committed to bringing out the best in America. In ethnic and gender terms, they represent a marvelous picture of the real America, and not a one of them appeals to hate or divisiveness.

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