Celebrating the autumn harvest in south florida when it is 95 degrees is a little tough to handle.

 

Going to a german event with lots of civilians wearing military uniforms is unnerving, even if you are german. (the civil air patrol did the parking.  Lots of 12-18 year olds in camo.  freaky)

 

Bag pipes, even when played well, are not pleasing to the ear.

 

Anyone can do the chicken dance.

 

German people as a whole are not very attractive compared to say brazilians or italians, but after 4 or 5 boots or lager, it becomes less important.

 

there are a lot of names for sausage

 

at any event, there is always at least one girl who will just take it too far, at this event it was a young buxom blond in a tight tutonic corset, fishnet stockings, and knee length black leather stilleto heels paired with a very short frilly Oktoberfest skirt.  However, being it is a family event, she was also there caring for her 85 year old grandma.  The juxtoposition was interesting. 

 

Carnival ride operators apparently do not have good dental plans.

 

 

 

Just an observation as an outsider (athiest) after watching the movie defience. It seems like jews tend to only suffer, argue, or make jokes.  and occasionally complain.

 

Accurate?

 

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/front-page/un-resolution-asks-israel-to-join-npt,-allow-inspections-999

 

So a non binding resolution passed in the UN urging Israel to open itself to IAEA inspections and to signing the NPT.  The funny thing is I did not hear about his from any US media source, and is not on any of the news sites such as drudge, huffpo and tpm, nor any mention on cable news.  This would seem to be a fairly important development and yet the only way I found out about this is from talking to my father in law who watches chinese television and brought it up to me.  How can it be that this story has gotten no play at all on US news feed?  It raises an interesting question in that how can we repeatedly go after Iran for it's nuclear program and site the npt and IAEA guidlines as justification when at the same time the US blocks any investigation into Israel's atomic capability, which is one of only three nations to not sign onto the npt,  The hardest thing to take is the arguement that if Iran developed a nuclear weapon it would start a nuke arms race in the middle east, well isn't Israel's nuclear weapons capacity the instigator in that already?  I would just like to see a little more discussion of this in the media, why is Israel such a special situation that even questioning the existance of it's nuclear program brings about shouts of anti-semitism. 

Didn't you always get a feeling of dirtbag from this guy? 

 

Not really politically relevant, but oddly satisfying in a dark way.  Like an ex-girlfriend who cheated on you getting HPV.  Now he beats on hookers, creepy. 

 

And maybe some of the regulars here can explain, what is up with an israeli becoming a scientologist?

 

Just weird stuff that desreves a litttle reflection. 

 

http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/years/2009/0327092sham1.html

Probably not a popular sentiment.  And if it is the derivitive traders getting bonuses, I would get angry too.  But this is a huge, probably too big corporation with multiple revenue streams.  So the derivitive guys lost big, I am just saying that other depatments that made money should not fall under the same derision.  Maybe a guy doing a good job trading in currency futures made what would have been a 10 billion loss into a 9 billion loss.  Shouldnt he be compensated.  And what about all the day to day claims and underwriters who have nothing to do with CDS, should they be penalized along with the risk takers in the swap department?  This is a big company, and while it is in bad shape due to it's own poor risk management, not every department should suffer for the faults of a few. Top tier leadership, sure lets grill them over bonus money, but for rewarding the sectors in a floundering business that mitigate losses, or at least make losses in the range of "my god this is the end of the world" into losses in the range of " wow, that was really bad" suffer along with everyone else is foolish.  We should demand a little justification of the bonus money, but it should not be outright banned, because some hard working exec in that company might have found a way to make AIG ask for 25 billion next month instead of 28 billion.

 

By the way, for all the faithful out there, lets hope there is not any big disasters this year.  I got a feeling that if an F4 hurricane makes landfall, you will see a bunch of insurers go under.

I have been hearing and reading a lot of angst about the tight credit markets, and that this is the cause of the economic downturn.  But really, weren't the credit markets and lending in general far to loose to begin with?  Economics is not really much of a science, it is more a series of extrapolations based upon a few hard facts and a bunch of suppositions.  One of those suppostions was that real estate does not decline in value, it may stagnate, but it does not decline.  This may seem laughable now, but up to 2006 and early 2007, this was a bedrock truth for anyone working in the real estate market.  Another bedrock truth is that 10:1 leverage on lending is safe, meaning that a bank can lend out 1 million in loans for every 100k in hard assets (a very liquid and changable term) and be safe.  A great deal of scorn was heaped upon banks lending out at 30 and 40 to 1 margins, which no doubt is way to risky, but it still assumes all the fiscal strife would have been avoided if the 10-1 rule were observed. 

 

This cuts both ways of course, from the stock market peak of around 14,000 to the current levels of about 6600, I have heard estimates of almost 7 trillion dollars in wealth has been lost.  Except that isn't true.  The major players in the stock market do not use real money in the purchase, they leverage themselves in.  So at a 10-1 margin, say I get 1 million of stock backed up by 100k of real money, if that stock loses 90% of it's value, I am really out 100k due to a margin call but the value of the loss appears to be 900k.   Not as bad as it would at first appear. 

 

With the loss of precieved wealth, the banks should not be able to lend anywhere near what they used to, and relying on 10-1 credit margins to prop up value is an unstable model to begin with.  It is almost like there is two different values for a dollar, the cash dollar that you actually work for and spend on little things like food, gas, and the day to day staples in your life you buy with cash, checks, or credit cards.  Then there is the credit dollar for large purchases like cars, homes, education, and unfortunately large medical expenses.  The real dollar is much more firm and stable, it is what you get paid in and what you spend and save, the credit dollar is the one being effected by the swings in the markets.  For large business, the normal currency is the credit dollar.  There needs to be greater parity between the two, because right now there is a huge disconnect, but current policy seems to be trying to enforce the disconnect instead of reconcile the discrepency.

 

  I think this comes down to making sure there is more skin in the game before a loan is made.  For houses, make sure that there is really 10 or 20% down payment before allowing a purchase.  Short term this will make buying a home harder, but long term it will stabalize the market and bring prices down further.  How many houses do you think would be sold for 500 thousand dollars if you had to bring 100k in real cash to closing. For education, require a set percentage of tuition to be paid in cash, this will again make things harder in the short run, but will force schools to lower tuition to keep admissions up.  College used to be something you saved for and paid out in advance, now it is a never ending debt obligation.  The only real winners in the current system are the financial servicers.    

Picture this, my pitch for a new comedy show, it would have to be at least as good as 2 and a half men.

 

Working Title: The Braintrust

 

Three main charactors, The first is a well to do radio personality, he espouses personal responsibility and family values while at the same time being an overweight drug-addicted whoremonger with an outsize ego(Think John Goodman mixed with Dennis Ferina).  The second is a middle aged milf from the country who grossly overplays a downhome image while at the same time loathing the hicks around her.  She also has enough kids to fill a trailer park with one trailer just for the meth lab.  (Think Rosanne Barr crossed with the weather girl from your local tv station circa 1992).  The last is presumedly the all american guy.  He is a blue collar guy, and a business owner.  Except he isn't.  He speaks for the little guy, but doesn't know what he is saying.  He agrees with whatever the crowd is saying at any given time. (Think Larry the cable guy mixed with Kojack)  

 

The plot is that these three misfits have to come together to shape and define a political party that has lost it's way.  Lots of common animosity, not a lot of common sense.  Can they expand beyond the mindless trolls who believe whatever they hear?  Can they take back the political process they used to control?

 

Lots of interesting walkon characters, Like Mike, the landlord, he is a black guy who acts like what a mid-80 black comedian portraying  a white guy as acting like. He is always just one step ahead of the cops who are on his trail for his many misdemenors and his crazy family.  Or Glenn, Another radio guy who is kind of friends with the main character but kind of creeps everyone out, (think Reverend Jim from Taxi crossed with the banjo kid from deliverence).  Then there is Ann, an anorexic tranny with anger issues who probably just needs a hug but instead goes for guns and cigarettes (think Iggy Pop and a long blond wig).  Michelle, the cute asian girl who is outraged by everything.  She even drowned her kids guinea pigs because they were not american enough, (think Squeeky Frome mixed with Kianna from bodyshaping).  Then there is Billy K, the smartest guy in the show, but then again that is like being the most moral girl in a whorehouse.  He is an Ivy league trust funder who thinks the biggest problem with the country is elitists.  Always condecending he is the foil for many of the barbs thown about (think  Woody Allen crossed with Smegel)  

 

What do you think?

 

I watch a lot of CNBC, and it is packed with self assured experts.  But as you watch you begin to realize that this is not a show about the economy or business, it is about short term stock picking, and nothing more.  Stuffed with self rightous free market types the answer is always tax cuts, deregulation and a hands off approach by the government no matter what the question is.  This is doctrinal thinking.

 

Anyway, take a look at John Stewart tearing them open, it is almost the entire show.  It is funny to see how wrong they have been while at the same time speaking as such infallable experts.   

Damn the senate.

 

Damn the republicans from the south.  They are about to kill the US auto industry for the sake of clinging to false precepts about economic conservativism.  Richard Shelby is a traitor, a man working against the interests of the United States at the behest of foriegn corporations.  The senate itself is no longer a functioning legistlative body, the idea that 60 votes are needed to move any bill foward is insane.  Do away with it and lets just have a house or representitives.  The very idea that 41 people can hold up any legistlation moving foward is crazy, these procedural tactics used by the republicans have killed one bill after the next for the last two years and they promise to continue into the future.  Where is the nuclear option, we have heard enough from the GOP, let them sit on the side and gripe for a few years but in the meantime lets get this country moving again, lets not get slowed down by a bunch of backward rednecks and fools looking for a pat on the back from Rush Limbaugh. 

 

Opposing the bailout does not even make financial sense. If the big three go down, which looks like it could happen, you are going to have about 2 million out of work within 6 months.  Figure that those two million will get unemployment, foodstamps... etc. paid for by the federal government amounting to about $1000 a month.  Figure those 2 million will also no longer be paying into federal and payroll taxes which will cost about $1000 a month in lost revenue.  The monthly carrying cost for 2 million unemployed is going to be about 4 biilion per month, before you add in the cost of all the pensions and health benefits for retired workers that will have to be picked up by the federal government.  I swear, the republicans are either damn stupid, or activly working to undermine the United States.

 

One other thing, Lets get some pride back in buying American again.  Most people probably do not activly serve thier country or community, there are only so many cops, soldiers, fireman and teachers in the world.  Enough with the milton friedman free market philosophy, we should be economic nationalists.  Take the small step of supporting your fellow citizens instead of other nations.  A car is probably the second largest purchase after a home, If you buy a foriegn car, you are letting your country down, you are turning away from the most basic service you can give to your country by supporting it economicaly. 

After listening to the grilling Shelby handed down to the CEOs of Ford, GM and Chrysler, I would really like someone to put him in the chair when it comes around to Alabama recieving federal funds for education.  We wouldn't want to throw good money after bad.  What is his plan to change his state's failing education system.  Maybe make him commit to personally tutoring a few students before he gets any federal funds. 

 

 

 

Just thinking here, if hillary takes the job as sec of state as is being reported, it is a huge risk for her.  She will vacate her senate seat, both clintons will divest from any potentially conflciting holdings, and Bill will stop the international speaking tours.  The thing is, if 6 months down the road Obama decides that Hillary is either ineffective, distratcing, uncooperative, or he just doesn;t like what bill is doing, she can be completely out of politics.  Serving on the cabinet is the ultimate "at will" workplace, Obama can terminate her at any time without cause.  He has 4 years to a reelection, plenty of time to forget about the clintons. 

 

Accepting this position is a much bigger risk to Hillary than it is to Obama.  She will have nothing to go back to. 

I am going to vote for Obama, I like is policies, his demenor, and I think he will bring a nice change to the current political enviornment.  I also think that McCain is an honorable man, if maybe running a dishonorble campaign who would also be a good leader for the country but has backward looking, dogma laden ideas about economics.

 

My wife is going to vote for Obama as well, she is less interested with politics, but likes Obama's general tone and dislikes McCain on account of general creepiness when he smiles, and also strongly dislikes Palin, she cannot figure out why anyone would want that woman as a potential leader for the country.

 

Now these are just two opinions, or rationals for voting preferneces, I think both are fairly well thought out and are based on real life issues and feelings.

 

I also know of some people voting for McCain.  One is my father, who thinks Obama is a black muslim terrorist who is anti-american and a socialist. (not like he is the one nationalizing the banks).  The other is a woman who also belives that Obama is muslim and anti-american, and also just might be the anti-christ. 

 

It just makes you think that for the first time in my life, I am voting for a candidate not because he is the lessor of two evils or because the other candidate scares me with his warped world view, but because I am truely supportive and confident he will do a good job.   Contrast that with the McCain voters, and I just would have to say without any hard polling on it, the nutjob ratio is way high for the GOP this year.  I mean really, that a person would actually bring up the possibility of the antichrist into a voting decision is insane.  Just wondering what you might have heard from McCain supporters, any other crazy rationalizations?

 

Just for comparison, a big mac meal costs somewhere just under $5.50 after taxes.

For about $5 you can buy a share of GM
For $4 you can buy wachovia
for $2.50 you can buy National City
For $2 you can but a share of Ford.
On the dollar menu we have fannie mae and freddie mac.

Maybe to revitalize the stockmarket, we can have drivethrough brokerages.  Or 2 for one wednesday deals on US automaker stocks.  Let's get creative.

Strategy vs tactics in the economy. 

This gets played out over and over, and gets ingrained as dogma within the media, and therefore is spit back out as supposed fact. 

Here is the thing, the economy is supposed to grow at a regular steady pace from year to year, accounting for increased population and thus new consumers as a measure of GDP.  When the gdp spikes, there should be an expected slowdown or even recession as the system balances itself, however this is politically unpalatable, so many measures are taken to avoid any slowdown, and tend to mess things up more than a normal recession would.

The republicans specifically, and the populace in general has a tough time separating short term bumps from long term growth.  When you look at something like a tax cut, this is a mechanism for a short term bump in the economy, it will allow for more disposable income for investment or spending, but will soon be acclimated into the national budget  and lose it's effect.  The same goes for fed rate cuts, these are very short term, sometimes less than a day long bumps that help for a short period but have no sustainability.

Long term growth entails big ideas that government may have little to do with.  Take for example the space race in the 60s, this was a large government expenditure for what seemed to be a narrow goal, and yet lay the foundation for new developments in electronics, computers, composite materials and plastics.  The amount of long term growth from this investment is hard to calculate, because inventions, like computers would likely have occured at some time no matter what, but due to the pressing of the project, the benefits of the new industry sprang up soon after the catalyst. 

Looking foward, especially seeing what a bump centered economy has come to wrought, you can trace everything back to the greenspan rate cuts after 9-11 (housing price spike, loose lending standards, eventual bubble burst and collapse) it seems that we should have a growth centered economy.  Big ideas like strengthining our countries infrastructure and power grid, new solar and wind farms, new technologies to be tried and tested, then sold around the world with a US label.  This is long term sustainable economic growth, not the cheap and reverable bump gained by a tax cut. 

for the next debate, Obama needs to repeat the words Erratic, overreaction, and wreckless September 27, 2008, 3:21AM

McCain did well in hitting Obama over and over again with the words with naive, inexperienced,  and doesn't understand.  Obama needs to paint McCain as the wreckless impulsive hothead by repeating phrases like erratic, and overreaction.  These terms identify with the bush administration, and certainly with McCain's decision making over the last few weeks.  This was a missed oppertunity tonight, while it was a well thought out debate on obama's part, he was the one who looked rattled.  Democrats are at a disadvantage in that they try to stay with what is truthful, as republicans will just say what draws a reaction.  There needs to be  alittle more push from Obama in the next debate.