May 28, 2008, 2:14PM
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/05/22/2008-05-22_dc_meeting_could_bring_compromise_on_mic.html"If Democrats send the message that we don't fully value your votes, we know Sen. [John] McCain and the Republicans will be more than happy to have them," Clinton said.
"The Republicans will make a simple and compelling argument: Why should Florida and Michigan voters trust the Democratic Party to look out for you when they won't even listen to you?" she added.
The key words there are "fully value." She's arguing that if the DNC doesn't seat the delegates without penalty, an outcome she knows is very unlikely (and a very bad idea, according to McAuliffe in 2004) voters in Florida should be expected to vote for McCain in protest. This is the idea she's planting. She's not responding to an argument from McCain, she's making McCain's argument for him.
Look carefully at what she says. She's proposing an argument on McCain's behalf, and telling voters in Florida that they should find this argument in support of McCain compelling.
With friends like this, who needs the GOP?
May 27, 2008, 2:04PM
The supers have heard Hillary's arguments about electability. Such as the one last week in which she claimed to be winning the popular vote, by which she meant that she had a lead of less than one tenth of one percent if you ignore the "uncommitted" votes in Michigan and ignore four caucuses entirely. Not surprisingly, the superdelegates haven't found her arguments compelling.
Now she's whipping up resentment over MI and FL, and the meeting on 5/31 is going to give her another chance to hurt the party without giving her a realistic shot at winning the nomination (short of some catastrophic event or Obama mega-scandal).
But consider what the superdelegates could do if a sufficiently large number of them were to endorse Obama before the 5/31 meeting. Not enough to give him the nomination, so that Hillary can't say she's been forced out "early". But enough that Obama's team could go to the 5/31 meeting and agree to seat the FL and MI delegates as-is, exactly the way Hillary wants.
The delegates were always going to be included in some fashion, but Hillary gets to claim she won the fight against disenfranchisement (when what she actually did was to hurt Democrats in November by stirring up resentment over something that was never going to happen, as she and everyone else knew).
The race goes into the last few primaries, so Hillary doesn't get to say she was forced out early. She gets to stay in just in case there's some sort of catastrophic event or mega-scandal for Obama, which is really her only chance at this point.
Puerto Rico probably gives her a better claim to winning the popular vote than what she has now. Yes, it's a claim that ignores the caucus/primary differences. And yes, it's a claim that's based on a big block of votes from voters who don't get to vote in the general election. But Hillary gets to make this claim as a face-saving thing, and the supers know that it really has nothing to do with electability. Not that they've been fooled by that argument yet.
MI and FL get seated as-is. But at the same time the risk of chaos (that McAuliffe was so concerned about in 2004) is minimized. Other states that might want to schedule their primaries early will see that MI and FL actually ended up with less clout in the nomination process than if they'd been part of super-duper Tuesday or something soon after that, as originally endorsed by the DNC. So the incentive for other states to challenge the January primary rule in 2012 is diminished.
It would be a nice way to wrap this thing up, tying up a lot of the loose ends in about as good a way as could possibly happen.
How many delegates would it take? By my back-of-the-envelope calculation, about 100 would absolutely make this work. Even if the remaining primaries were to go badly for Obama, they would push him over the top (with the new goalposts).
But 48 supers between now and Friday would be enough, because that puts Obama over the top for the current goalposts, and Obama can then say he had to "win it twice" after letting Hillary move the goalposts with MI and FL.
That's a lot for one week, but the superdelegates have got to be looking for way to get as much unity out of this mess as they possibly can, and the DNC can't allow McAuliffe's chaos scenario to happen, and this is as close to a win/win scenario as we could hope for at this point.