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Leapfroggers vs. Leapfliers.


Leapfrog. We've all heard it applied to Developing World countries, right? As in, these countries don't need to repeat every single step we took on our path to development. And we'd all tend to agree that it'd be good if they could leapfrog over the hellhole factories our grandparents worked in, brutal social practices like child labor, and the inefficient old technologies, like those big thick glasses with the ugly black frames.

The sexier version of the leapfrog idea says these countries should leapfrog over even our more recent technologies, go straight to cell phones & skip the landlines; or go straight to solar PV panels, instead of massive dams.

Most of us can see there's some sense in this. It's not a perfect idea, because sometimes the older ways are healthier or more efficient or more sustainable. But cell phones vs landlines, PV panels vs coal plants... I suspect most of us would nod at that thought.

In my mind, the leapfrog idea wants to bounce ahead of this image. Where it wants to go is toward imagining where we could leapfrog to. Because the actual game we played didn't just mean you had to bend down & hold a squat while the kids in the rear jumped over you. Played right, it would go on & on, a constantly-moving chain of kids, their positions always changing, the whole thing moving forward. That was the aim, to see where you could make the chain go, not just to replace the leaders with the laggards.

But there are counter-ideas that hold us back from seriously pursuing leapfrogging, for ourselves. Perhaps most powerful is the fact that we all know our social & economic & political world has produced some real problems. And the natural tendency is to look first to "fix" them... and not mess the good things up. Fix the bad, keep the good, right? And there's some damn good roots to this desire. Most valuable, that it expresses our desire to ease the suffering of those who're worst off in our societies.

We see how we are.


And yet, I think that as a sole focus - just making sure we fix the broken things - this hurts us, and holds us back. All of us. I think we all know this... even from our childhood leapfrog days. It's the equivalent of focusing solely on the kid in front of us, looking to put our hands on their back, aiming just to jump that one place ahead. Which, if I can get leapfrog-technical for a moment, is what a really bad leapfrogger does.

The truly great leapfroggers (think Cyclone Timmy, or that little Geraldine kid with the knees) well, they had... vision. They didn't just stare at the one ass in front of them, they saw the whole line stretching ahead. You'd see them, looking out ahead, locked in some dream-state, and then just... skipping, skimming almost, really fast and low and smooth, all the way down the line, barely putting any weight on you, as they flew overhead.

More leapflier than leapfrogger, to tell the truth.

Because what they really wanted, the goal that drew them forward, was to make sure that the last jump they made, the spot where they'd have to finally bend down & stop, stretched the game out to an interesting place. You know, landed the chain right at a teacher's feet, or next to the ditch, or maybe at the door of the ice cream place. Visionaries.

I sometimes wonder if the kids who were really bad leapfroggers ended up in Congress, or as talking heads, or productivity-boosting, power-suited, management consultants. Because if you sketched out - honestly - our political agenda today, you'd find they see it, discuss it, frame it in ways guaranteed to land us, heavily, on the next kid's back. Where we'll likely twist a leg, spin into a slow-mo sprawl, and then - you remember it - leapfrog humiliation, the face plant in the grass.

So let's take the leapfrog test & apply it to our Agenda. Ask of each "issue," is this a thing which other nations already have, or we had in the recent past? Because if so, they're likely being framed in narrow terms, as taking just the one jump ahead. Now even if they are, it's not that we don't want to do them - we do. But we want to fulfill them, and then surpass them. By coming at them on a different trajectory, taking a wider & longer view, making fewer heavy landings.

Because these old ways are tying up another, rising, force within us, one that's more innovative & imaginative. We all understand the churning mixture within the human heart, the way our wonderful multi-minds wrestle with the multiple (often clashing) views within us. And I think we also all know that changing times - and especially crises - require us to jettison narrow, old approaches.

We need to cut loose from the ideas that tether us to a time & place we need to get out of. From opinions & terms & approaches to issues that hold us back from entering wider, brighter, more interesting lands. I want to see what's at the head of the line, not the next guy's back. And besides, if America & Americans aren't focused out there, aren't going to lead, innovate, create, then... please don't finish that thought. It depresses me.

Universal Health Care. Most other developed nations have it. It's a good thing to have. Americans should have it. But if the goal is defined as simply replicating what others have today, then a host of problems arise. The entire U.S. health care system already takes 17% of GDP, while most others achieve the same or better results for 10%. That's a $900 billion a year difference. And if the health care fight takes place within the old terms, it'll be hard to add 40 million people, and preserve all the existing health care industry segments (e.g. the insurers), and deal with the problems every other nation is already facing, namely, like how to handle an aging population.

Instead, is there a way forward that'll get us universal health care, but with reduced costs? Through more prevention? More mobilization of the wider self-help & social support networks, with all their skills & imaginations? More direct discussion around the expense of treatment in the last weeks of life?

Cars & Roads & Transportation. If we salvage the Big 3 & rebuild our existing road & bridge infrastructure, we'll basically end up where the Germans or Japanese are. Or, put another way, we'll end up where we were in the 50's or the 80's. And - for all the talk of change - that's where an enormously powerful set of vested interests wants to take us. For instance, investing in infrastructure sounds good. And it's certainly better than letting it fall to pieces. But anyone who's worked on the insides of infrastructure projects, in any country, can tell you about the political favoritism & the corruption built into the Iron Triangles. The ones who pick which roads get built or repaired, which firms get the work, how fast they work. Same debate with the Big 3. They made their money from SUV's & trucks. And it'll cost us more upfront to shift them to lighter vehicles, or plug-in hybrids. So... Reform along existing lines? Or Transform?

And are there ways we could boost rapid transit in some corridors instead? Bus Rapid Transit has a lighter capital cost & is faster to build. Or go to plug-in's, but jump over the old financing game by leasing the batteries, thus making the sticker prices of plug-in's or electrics lower than gas-burning cars? Or what if we boost broadband & tie it in to increased working from home & from local telework centers? It's not for all, but in some places, maybe.

Run the Leapfrog test on any of issue you give a damn about. It's pretty easy, actually, because the powers that be are already pitching the "one step ahead" line, looking for a hook in you & I. Playing on the fact that even though we dream of more, and even though we know this isn't actually a new "future" (in fact, it's more like what we just had), that part of us still responds to it. They're counting on being able to bully us, not just politically, but on our ideas, playing on the fact that we're just not sure we can make it to the head of the line, not sure we can reach a truly different future.

Hear that? That's the sound of the powerful, in full battle cry: "Sure, let's End The Wars... but we can't afford to reduce our military spending, much less change how we see & relate to the world. It's imperative that we Stabilize The Financial System... but we need to keep the big boys, in fact, they may have to get even bigger. Let's solve that Mortgage Crisis... and the developers & the construction companies & the suppliers & the realtors, and keep on turning homes into real estate, keep on expanding their square footage. By all means, let's Green Our Utilities... through tax breaks that reward the biggest, dirtiest & most centralized players in the game. And yes, of course, we have to think of the future, and Rebuild Our Schools... nothing like good ole bricks & mortar. And sure, you can talk later about all those new ways of learning."

Truth is, I'm not sure we have any other choice than to leapfrog out of the old, to bounce over the best others already offer, and to aim toward something new. To land somewhere new. Just to weather the storm that's already upon us, I'm not convinced we can do it just by reinflating & re-building & re-regulating the old.

And yes, for me, that's frightening. When the heart of an old machine dies, and you go to pump it, you may just get black goo -  something worse. But from within that fear, I also find my hope rising. Hope that finally - at last - we can now move beyond just dreaming about & thinking about & talking about the ways and means to a more soul-satisfying future. Hope that we can begin to live it, embody it, express it. Bring it into being.

But the only way I can see to get there is by lifting out eyes off the butt of that kid squatting down in front of us, by looking up & out toward that big green field that stretches out ahead, just past the front of that chain. A chain made up of our ever-moving, generations-long, game of leapfroggers.

Game on.


88 Comments

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those big thick glasses with the ugly black frames.

I think they are kinda sexy....

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Hey, what's with the sensitive guy music?

And if we ever feel a need to make a song called Canadian Woman, I'll ring you up, eh?

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Sorry X & the Oils can't match the BS'ers (cough... cough... my arse... cough), and I'd toss you a couple of Husker Du, but when you come down to it, I'm actually just a Sensitive, New Age, Kinda Guy.

And you can call me Darcy, Sami.

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I played with Helios Creed and Steelpole Bathtub one time, does that count?

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Hey wait, and "Crime and the City Solution", that does make me almost famous. I need a glass of water

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Ok, I give. No way the Cowboy Junkies can compete with that.

I just think you're sore about some leapfrog-related indignity from your youth. Maybe these guys'll help soothe the savage.


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Don't go there - painful memories

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X, the sensitive new agers who gave us "the President sucks doggie" sumthin or other, on their first? album. Couldn't find a link. Regarding your use of Music in your posts, I think you know how I feel, you sensitive new age guy. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsdkGHX9Vqo
p.s. another great post Q.

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Ok, between you & Des I'm getting whiplash. From Cosby & Labelle & Cocker to.... transvestite Australian chainsaw jugglers doing post-mortem metal.

That said, I get compared to Joe Cocker. A LOT. Apparently, the dental work is remarkably similar. (Even though Doc Finkelstein swears he's never done Joe's work.)

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Whatever the quality of Dr. Fsteins dental work, it could be worse http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRKBs41afJo&feature=related
Sorry 'bout the whiplash. Maybe this will help you equilibrate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFfTyGEtYpg

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Let's face it everything we haven't all ready done is not gonna appear here. Double negatives...Sheesh! It's all mixed up. No such thing as nostalgia.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtF7chSPgWU

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Argghh, "Not available in your country". Thanks for blocking me, YouTube.

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Try this

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Same thing, must be disrespecting the prophet or somesuch.

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Enjoyed the RHT, but really quite liked the Gomez the other day.

Today's jones requires some 70's guitars & pathetic High School-type behavior though. This, Joel from the Shore.

Old school.

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Gomez... one of my current personal favorites. Hard band to pidgeonhole. Cool combo of psychedelia and R & B.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceX71za3GhY&feature=related
How 'bout some 90s guitars and high school energy? How can you not like a band called 'Hypnolovewheel'? The energy of bouncing down a dirt road at 3 in the morning, with your headlights strobing at each bump.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AaFCtfVojc

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Into Molotov? (no time to link, sorry)

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Don' know them...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZT6H_hhmBFA&NR=1 ?? Is this them? Great floor show!

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Aaargh, removed everywhere.

Google it, great song.

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Not the best quality, but plays....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY6CK8_rtxs

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Like it. That one in particular reminded me of these guys...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxN5_PsSWXQ

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I was one of those kids who did the ultimate face plant.....I was always so busy staring through my glasses at the cute guys' asses....

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Awesome. Love the "voice" of the writing as always. Agree on counts.

There are a number of place we could explode past the current solutions being offered. Also in terms of how we discuss them. If everyone wants the world to look like it does now - cars, roads, etc.) the solutions need to mimic our current environment in a sustainable and renewable fashion. Such as using electric vehicles and plant-based textiles, run by a truly green energy such as space-based solar or something that is theoretical today but doable.

That requires both huge innovation and huge investments that pay for themselves over seven generations. Obama just might be the right guy to sell that to today's me-first generation

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Hey Jason. Part of the reason I think the more innovative, forward-looking ideas have a chance is precisely because the existing way most issues are framed means there's enormous, partisan, firepower concentrated on very small areas of turf. Lobbyists and associations and people owed and a lazy media that loves to translate everything into those old terms. Everybody's dug in, the artillery's locked & loaded, and any average citizen in their right mind has fled the field.

But I think in many cases, our solutions will come not from finding some perfect middle or moderate ground between the old forces... but by reimagining them, and moving out ahead. Which enables you to engage people who've been alienated by the existing system, the existing parties.

I understand why a lot of people call this moderate or centrist or pragmatic... but if that means just being a compromise between two old, deeply flawed, positions, then I suspect it's doomed.

But find news ways to come at things, and pitch it as "moving our ahead," like the old German Green party slogan, "Neither Left nor Right but Out In Front" - and I think we've got a better chance.


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Well put. Works well for where we find ourselves in America - Building a more sustainable future isn't a right or left issue. We live or die together at this point. I think it will really come down to a majority of humanity all waking up at the same point, being open to ideas that break that compromise between two equally crappy solutions paradigm.

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"Kumbaya my lord, kumbaya..."

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Hey everybody! Hold hans & join in! Loki wants us to sing a few rounds of Kumbaya with him! Welllllllcome, Loki!

All together now -

'Tis a blessed day,
Kumbaya...
When a complete bastard like Loki,
Kumbaya...
Gets all peace-unity and lovey-dovey,
Kumbaya...
Oh, Lord, he was such a black-hearted prick that Loki,
Kumbaya.

A few more rounds?

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;^}

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If everyone wants the world to look like it does now - cars, roads, etc.

I want it to look green. Very, very green. Oh, and blue. A happy, healthy blue, not the sad blue.

Green and blue.

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I agree. I think solutions exist which will deliver both if the vision of a livable planet isn't compelling enough. I can't understand why it wouldn't be, but not everyone arrives at the same obvious conclusions at the same time. We might have to figure out a way to fix things within some of the existing systems in order to get there.

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It amazes me that so few people see the biggest picture, our planet...it's as if they think it's disposable.

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Thanks Quinn. One type of post I like is where someone says exactly what has been going through my mind in an inchoate state giving me the words to make the ideas clear for me.

I really think we need to focus on energy in a big way. That's the key that can unlock solutions for many of the other issues. Cheap abundant clean energy is the foundation of everything else. I think many of the politicians know its running out but when ever they think of doing something about it they look back at Carter and push the idea out of their head. I think many have just been hoping and counting on some genius, some modern day Einstein or Edison to invent some brand new source of energy that we can just plug into the grid seconds before the guillotine blade hits our necks. No more waiting, its time to leapfrog into the future in a big way.

I'm just hoping that this is the time finally that some major push will be made. And worried that it won't because the gas prices have gone down again. At least Obama seems to be sticking with his energy play. Saw an interview where he was asked about how much of a priority alternative energy was now that gas prices have gone down. He answer, it was more important now though harder politically. He said, we go through this over and over. There's a crisis and a lot of talk about doing something then the price of oil goes down and nothing gets done, its time to break that cycle. I hope he means it.

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Hey, Oceankat. Out of all these areas, the one I'm sure we can do a leapfrog in is... energy. Technically & economically, this thing is a done deal. We can do this. And this is the field I work in most. I wouldn't have said that even 5 years ago, but today I can walk out the door & put my hand on the economic & technically-sound stuff we need. It'll take 10 years before we're sure we have it licked, and 20 years before the build-out is done, but there's no longer reason for us to think this is impossible.

On the electricity side, we've got enormous quantities of low-cost wind available. Today. We just signed a deal here this week for a 300 MW wind-farm, at 5 cents/kwh. The turbine suppliers are expanding as fast as they can, and these guys are NOT little anymore - it's GE, Mitsubishi, Siemens & co. The wind-farm developers include local farmers (like in Minn) to utilities to guys like Buffett & T-Boone. And when investors - like pension funds, for instance - can sign 25 year deals that pay 8-10-12%, tell me there isn't gonna be capital.

The transitional issues will be around transmission choke-points, price spikes as turbine supplies get over-run, that sort of thing - but all doable. How much wind can we put in the grid? Well, even the DOE says 20% isn't a problem. Add some storage capability, and that goes up to 50%.

And the BIG way to store wind (or solar, which is also gonna come fast, but with a time lag) is... in batteries. Car batteries being brilliant for this. THIS is where the looking ahead, crossing sectors, leapfrogging comes in. Who would have guessed that we could expand what we want on the wind/solar power side and it would help the car side, and then vice-versa?

Because the best source of storage for wind/solar is plug-in hybrid or electric-vehicle batteries. Turning to which, just a simple move to hybridize our cars - just that - can make enormous savings. People think moving from 20 mpg to 40 mpg isn't so impressive, but the math is simple - it halves your oil use for vehicles. How hard is it to hybridize a car? Well, once you figure out how, the actual manufacturing is pretty easy. Here's from an Alliance Bernstein report:

"Toyota easily integrated assembly of the Prius, a hybrid-only model, on its existing product lines. A tour of the Toyota plant that assembles the Prius & seven other models was telling: The Prius only requires 4 new parts and 11 additional procedures (out of 200), or 5% additional complexity; several assembly functions take only 120 seconds versus 60 seconds for a similar non-hybrid vehicle."

Look at those numbers, and you can see why this transition is a done deal. Tell me the Big 3 can't revamp their assembly plants to do 4 more parts & 11 more procedures? And that'll add 20 mpg to those vehicles.

Go the next step, to plug-in's, and there's not just the Chevy Volt coming, but Toyota is already road-testing a Plug-In Prius - which only requires minimal modifications of their base model. Plus the Chinese already have them on the roads, etc.

Plug-in's alone will provide enough electricity storage that the utility studies are showing we can add 50% wind & solar to the mix, with no impact on the Grid's performance. The barriers there will be the usual transitional ones - developing battery supply lines & recharging outlets - but this is fairly easy.

The real issue is that we need to create a new FINANCING model. Right now, you pay your $25k for a car, and then you pay - @20mpg for 150,000 miles - another $15-$30k for the fuel. So GM finances the sticker price, and you pay the gas, right? But for a plug-in or an electric car, you need someone to take the battery cost (from $2-$12k) and lift it OFF the upfront sticker price, and put it ONTO your electric bill. Do that, and the sticker price of the PHEV/Electric will be LESS than a conventional car... and the ongoing fuel + battery costs less as well. Right now, the autoco's, the utilities, a whole range of financing agencies are looking at doing just that.

So what do we need? The Government to help support & solidify these new financing efforts, whether its helping farmers & pension funds into wind, or (more importantly) plug-in automakers to lease their batteries. And the New Deal saw the Government do precisely that sort of thing for housing - new mortgage mechanisms. We just need a new vehicle leasing mechanism, for the battery. Beyond our abilities? I don't think so.

It'll be a win for getting us off oil, a win for stabilizing people's energy bills, a win for the trade balance, and clean air, and quieter cities, and farmers income, and on and on. And one of the things that makes me happiest these days is that Obama sponsored one of the first plug-in bills, AND that he spoke so knowledgeably to Maddow a month or so ago about the kinds of Grid changes we need to put more wind on the wires.

The Energy leapfrog is there for the taking.

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But then you have utility companies making the profit instead of oil companies. Big switch. Unhappy campers.

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Two process points/questions if I may:

1. Now that the election-related surge of readers has vaporized (and that's fine - people want to reclaim their normal lives, and a number of former posters have struck off on their own) I have to say that the appearance of the site - relatively - is a bit like a ghost-town lately. Both in terms of the much smaller number of posts, but also the very low number of Rec's they get (i.e. zero and 1 and such.) I'm slightly worried it may be helping to create a bit of a self-reinforcing, downward spiral. i.e. People - especially recent arrivals - may be less likely to write if they feel fewer people are reading them. I know those of you here for years will tell me it just takes take time to re-adjust to a "between-elections" role, but for those who arrived more lately, the place can look pretty barren. So if you can remember, this just to say I suspect it's probably more important to Rec now, than back during the time when there were so many more here.

2. Personally, I also have question about the use of videos. I love music, and pretty much can ONLY write with music on. For me, music moves me into & out of different moods, often saying things or creating a place or carrying freight that words on their own can't. So.... I tend to attach ones which resonate somehow with what I felt as I wrote.

Now, some people know they won't like the music, and I'm hoping they can just pass over it without clicking, and it doesn't interfere. But for them, I wonder if they feel the text alone is weaker, or missing parts, because of the music?

And to those that DO click on it - and since I do this with all of my posts lately - I'm just wondering if you've felt it threw you off the post itself, or added to it, or was just neutral?

Anyway, no need for stand-alone responses on this, but just if you could tuck your view into your regular comment, it'd be appreciated. Not that I'm likely to change, mind you... being stubborn as hell....! ;-)


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I'm waiting for the version with the free encoder key ring and Sir Andrew Lloyd Webber theater adaptation, but if you're going to go cheap on us, I guess UTube will DoTube.

(And hey, I thought I was the only one around here doing the Rec whoring - he stoops to conquer?)

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What's this? First I'm a Sensitive New Age Nancy Boy, now a Rec Hoor? (Toronto pronunciation, that.) Damn... tough crowd. You gotta admit, it's a bit weird seeing so few posts & a bunch with 0 Rec's on the list, and a lotta people have left, and then there's that eerie, whistling sound.... 'Course, that could just be Billy, laughing.

But just to bump up my street cred, something a bit raw, from Down Home.

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Oh right, you big hollow man you.

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Laughing til I hurt. Do you have some "Random Insane" button you use just to pull up vids to bomb me with?

I mean, Wiki says Dax said she was avante garde, but come on, there ARE rules. Even in the avant garde. For starters, she's from Southend, Des. SOUTHEND. That's just an automatic disqualification. Yes, I know, I know, that sounds unfair. But what did Dax go on & do?

"From 1996 on, she has worked in interior design & has appeared several times on the BBC interior design show Homefront."

Case closed. The Southend Exclusion still holds.

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I'll sent you Bethnal Green or Islington - will that make you happy?

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Great imagery Quinn! It took me right back to my block again (my family practically took up the entire block with dozens of cousins, friends of cousins etc.) so I could see in my minds eye the stretch of kids. Unfortunately, we were not as visionary leapfrogs as you were.

As for the music, I don't know about anyone else, but I believe that in both music and writing, it is the emotional response it brings that makes the difference between a mediocre post and a good one. So if both enhance the idea you are portraying, why would you not include both?

I think anyone who has a problem with the music should just take a deep breath and maybe go count the bucket of baseballs confiscated from the neighborhood children who dared hit it onto their property.

Again great analogy and imagery, Quinn.

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Thanks, Mage. Since 1984 I've wanted to be able to write, and link it to music, film, clips from speeches, quotes from books, dances, shots of the outdoors, you name it. I remember sitting & mapping hour upon hour, the connections that sprung to mind as I wrote. And now that something has finally arrived which provides that chance, the problem is - unsurprisingly - that there are too many possible connections.

And of all those I find available to choose from, it's music which carries the most power - in the smallest package. I just find that if I'm given a choice between going to some academic article, or authoritative news source, and adding in music... I'll take the latter. Glad you find it sometimes adds to the whole.

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Er, are you insinuating that some 'other' blog is responsible for the fall off?

Heh.

(Finds a warm perch and watches for feathers flying)

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Naw, there's more than one, Bwak - a lotta people seemingly just returning to their home blog, or post-election turning to other things. Like I say, I think both of those things are great. I've just been wondering what the new situation's gonna look like here. I wasn't here between elections last time, so am wondering what it'll be like. I don't mind if it focusses more on specific substantive questions (in fact, that'd be great), or history or whatever, but I doubt with the change in software, change in ruling party, etc., that things will repeat exactly, eh?

That said, get blogging!! ;-)

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This is a post of absolute genius! Especially the imagery and the invitation to re-vision.

Keep sharing the videos. It expands your menu and thus your visitors.

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Hi Thera!!!

Good to see you :) I hope all is well with you and yours.

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We find our more on Monday. I'll be on and off this place - but will keep you posted. Thanks for your kind words.

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"we find out more"

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Let us know Thera!

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Good to see you, Lux! You are one of my wisdom people - all your humility only increases that!

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Questions:

Are there any examples you can point to, where we leapfrogged or leapflew over anything?

Might there be some structural reasons why human societies don't usually/ever develop in this inspiring fashion?

Can you point toward something structurally new and different that negates our past experience?

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Technologically, obviously, yes. You can pretty much chart out say, England's technological development through the last 3 centuries, then just map the diffusion of those technologies around the world - from toilets to steam engines. They won't have followed an even, equally spread out path. (And therefore, the associated specifics of industrial production will also never come along with those tools.)

Same all the way back to printing presses or writing or the use of specific seeds or stone tools I suspect. i.e. Not every tool disseminates equally as widely as every other.

But I think you're asking a more interesting - and harder - question. Which is (I think), in general, what stops us from making more of these moves - and when can those forces be broken? And there, I'm sure we could begin to rhyme off barriers like vested economic/political interests, organizational inertia, a basic human cautiousness about the new, the influence of older generations, feelings of cultural inferiority or superiority, etc. All of which we can not just imagine, but likely sketch out, for each change we propose in our society.

That said, financial crises or serious international challenges can provide moments when at least some of these structures weaken. The problem today is, which ones will weaken, and which ones will strengthen, if we are entering into such a time? e.g. The banks may not have the ability to block certain new financial innovations we want... but a rising need for stability, family fears or social divisions could easily rise up even higher.

But instead of asking me & hinting, Dimitry, why not say what you think they are, and where, if ever, they break open? I'd like to hear. I suspect you know some fair chunks of history that might be relevant, eh? ;-)

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Well, I am not sure.

I do think, that generally (and I don't mean "technologically"), human development (I actually would use the word "change") is ill-understood, badly predicted and heavily politicized. I would even venture to say that the historical change of human societies is a wide open area of scholarship, with no prevailing theory holding sway in a definitive fashion.

Further, I would postulate that the whole subject has been confounded with badly applied pseudo-Darwinian ideas and politicized with Marxism/Capitalism "evolutionary" dichotomy for far too long. I am hoping the whole subject is revisited in a more holistic, apolitical, fundamental way, without shying away from biological evolution, resource limitations and psychological factors. This would necessitate shelving the whole contentious notions of "progress" with the its attendant "technological leapfrogging" and looking at the deeper processes involved.

This approach would dispassionately examine human systems of organization (broad meaning here) without the common epithets and "value-ladden" labels, much like modern anthropology has stopped classifying some humans as "savages" because they did not use the french toilet. It would also stop assigning qualities to human beings that do not exist in the animal world, treating humans as "kings of the world", to whom laws of biology and physics apply only until he can "shape" them.

However, given humans' grand gift for self-aggrandizement I am not holding my breath. I do expect much study as to how improve and further accelerate our "progress" which is today defined essentially as increased mastery over our environment. I guess, I think that it is an illusion.

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Yeah, but.....can you find the cheese at the end of the maze?

J/K

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Did someone promise there is cheese there?

Is it Valveeta or Camembert?

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I'm with you on the use/misuse of "progress" and "development," Dimitry. I have no great conviction that the steps we have taken are necessarily for the good, and certainly no belief that they automatically do so. One of my hopes is that these next steps, or leaps, that we take will be ones which enable us to lighten the load we place on the Earth - or at least, some of the great, blunt, traumas we inflict. My worry is that in doing so, likely by moving to wire ourselves and our brains together more, we will mess with our brains in the same blunt manner we've messed with the Earth.

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There's a lot of beautiful writing in here. Thank you brother.

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Wow, Quinn, you are on a roll. Leapflying. Makes me truly happy just to think about it: the whole gang -- innovation, creativity, vision et al -- leaping, touching down momentarily, just long enough to gain purchase on some solid (or maybe even stolid) thinking while focusing on the next long view or wild tangent, then leaping ahead again. Ending up in places not imagined when the game began, laughing with the sheer joy of being part of getting there, wherever that is.
Find myself smiling from ear to ear, eyes brighter, skin aglow -- all because, after reading your post, I feel the pleasure of synapses firing, new ideas leaping around in my brain. Thank you.
Btw, your videos almost always enhance your posts, as they do communicate powerful feelings. But sometimes, that may be gilding the lily, as the way you write communicates plenty of power and lots of feeling. So I, for one, will trust your instincts about when to include them, and when to leave them out... hmmm, maybe scratch that, as I, for one, could have done without the cats.
It is true that when a video volley ensues in the comments, whether it is in your posts or in anyone else's, the endless clicking and backspacing can be distracting for those of us with a limited attention span, even though we always see something new and that in and of itself is interesting.
Anyway, gotta go now. Have a Leapflying image in my head; need to download it in Photoshop.

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Thanks WW. I find that when I look at or work on the things we humans have created, I'm always surprised by how much weight, freight, we pile on our backs in regard to our ideas & our organizations. And how impossible it becomes to think our way clear of them. The lightness that we had as kids, the ability to tackle new things, the openness & plasticity, I'm not sure if it disappears, but we sure as hell work to wall it off.

As the years have gone on, I've shifted focus, from trying to knock down those walls, to looking for openings, spaces, on which I could help grow something. After that, the focus becomes to feed them, grow them, to get any spare energy or resources to them. A bit like ignoring the medieval castles, and aiming to win the countryside instead. At this point, after 20 years effort by me (and 40 years by others), it feels like more of them are at a size when they can now spread more rapidly, and effectively become our mainstream way of life.

But still, the resistance amazes me. When I was a kid, I had this thing where I'd see the things around me "melting." Or see them rising up, being built - but differently. Didn't matter what it was - buildings, cars, fields, toasters - they'd melt, and my mind would regrow them in some new way. Which seems to have made me feel that everything is created, but can be different. Everything is plastic, liquid, given a long enough timeframe.

And therefore, it always seemed so bizarre, the incredible focus & attention people would pay - using their own life's time - to repairing & shoring these things up, working to return them to some fixed vision. Which is partly why England appeals I suspect, with their gentle, slow-motion erosion of things, perhaps to be repaired, perhaps changed, perhaps allowed to... slide.

But for all its downsides, seeing things like that has at least made me happier with the idea of leapfrogging, moving more rapidly toward change than we might otherwise would. This thought, of course, triggered by those land waves of yours - the different rates at which things move. In short, perhaps we humans would do well to remember that we're 90%+ liquid, rather than pretending that we - and our creations - are made of rock. Change that image, and perhaps we'd be better at other changes, eh?

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Quinn: as an example of Leapflying, and in response to Maya Lin's "Land Wave" video:

http://video.nytimes.com/video/2008/11/07/arts/design/1194832296918/maya-lin-s-wave-field.html

you wrote that you were "starting to think that the only difference between water and land is.... time."

I think you may be right. In part because -- and please take this in the laudatory way in which it is intended -- the way you think reminds me of my grandfather, who had the most insightful, flexible mind I have ever encountered. And he -- who shaped my own take on life more than any other -- believed that the essential "difference between water and land is ...time" because that theory was borne out in the most important project of his life.

Perhaps my grandfather was initially fascinated by the relationship between water and land because he was born and raised on the Eastern Shore of the Cheasapeake, and an awareness of the amorphous boundary between tidal water and vulnerable land was built into his DNA, much as yours was on the Bay of Fundy. Or maybe it was just that as an artist/environmentalist/innovator by nature --although he was an engineer by trade -- he had the most flexible, connect-the-dots-into-something-new mind I have ever encountered.

When he was a young man, working his way through engineering school, my grandfather spent his summers as a surveyor and cartographer for the Western Maryland and B&O RRs. And despite later accomplishments (dams and bridges and levees that, of course, all focused on the juncture of water and land) it was his opinion that his greatest life achievement actually occurred during one of those summers.

While surveying a serpentine mountain valley in Garrett County, Maryland -- to determine the viability of laying track along its creek -- he told me that one day, in one instant, he was struck, as if by force, with a vision of the valley entirely under water. He described the detailed image he had of a sun-lit marine utopia in which he imagined floating by aquamarine "retaining walls" formed by the granite-bouldered hillsides, swimming through dapple-lighted trees branches, now swaying gracefully underwater, and diving down seventy-five feet to touch the gravel road that served as an underwater path in the darker depths.

My grandfather, thereafter, became, by his own admission, "a man possessed" by his vision. For the remainder of that summer, as he and his fellow surveyors worked their way through the valley floor, he spent his off hours climbing the adjacent hills to sketch the twists and turns of his imaginary lake in perspective.

At the end of the summer, when the completed survey was analyzed, the consensus of railroad executives was that the project would be cost-prohibitive, and so they decided not to exercise their option on the land. Instead, they moved on to another valley, with fewer bends in the road.

My grandfather made laborious hand tracings of the documents he had created which, over the next school year, he used to construct a new set of full documents. And then he set about the Herculean task of finding a sponsor for "his" valley who would be interested in building "his" lake.

Time passed. My grandfather showed his drawings and made his pitch to whomever would listen as his schedule allowed. The State of Maryland was not interested. Nor were several other candidates on his list. But the executives of the precursor of the Pennsylvania Electric Company were intrigued enough to ask him to bring his drawings to their offices, seeing that the valley creek was fed by an offshoot of the Yoghegany River that would, therefore, be a perfect spot to on which to build a small hydroelectric dam.

As a young man, my grandfather was a great visionary, but not yet a good businessman. Still in school, he asked PennElec for nothing but reimbursement of his travel expenses, and a tour of the project if and when it was completed -- to which modest request PennElec readily agreed.

My grandfather's life moved on. He graduated, got a good first job with a national engineering firm that -- of course -- specialized in bridges, dams and levees; and, shortly thereafter, he married my grandmother and eventually became a father to my father.

In the meantime, PennElec bought the land. And, after a delay caused by WWI and its aftermath, land clearing began on the project in the early 1920's. Construction of the dam was begun in 1923, and completed in 1925. The next three years were devoted to building three bridges at pivotal transverse points. Finally, in 1929, the floodgates opened; Deep Creek Lake, the largest inland body of water in Maryland, 13 miles long with 69 miles of shoreline, finally became a reality that was begot by one young surveyor's dream.

As an arrogant teenager, I took my then successful grandfather to task for walking away from the lake project without getting either money or lakefront land in return. He laughed, uproariously, then turned serious, wagging his finger at me. "Young lady," he admonished, "who can put a price on impossible dreams that come true? Had I been paid for my work then, I would feel cheated now. Instead, the pure vision I had is made manifest; and so I am enriched, every day, by that experience in every way that has any meaning whatsoever."

A few years later my grandfather died. I inherited some money. But, of far greater meaning to me now, I inherited the original maps and drawings -- yellowed and slightly mildewed over time -- of what is now Deep Creek Lake.

So when you said, today, that: "we humans would do well to remember that we're 90%+ liquid, rather than pretending that we - and our creations - are made of rock. Change that image, and perhaps we'd be better at other changes, eh?".... I thought: "you betcha; my grandfather was of the same mind, and I applaud the way you think."

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Wonderful.

A connection that you probably know, but just in case. The Bay of Fundy is the world's largest gathering place for the semipalmated sandpiper. During the late Summer/Fall migration, over 1/2 of the global population of these birds is found there, in flocks as large as hundreds of thousands. We just knew them as pipers or peeps. They WERE, however, my favourite bird, as their flying/flocking/searching behaviour literally blew my mind. I would watch them fly, in groups of thousands, incredibly fast, but turning in a split-second as they flew, going silver, grey, then completely invisible in the light, funnelling & shooting & spreading in ways I can't possibly describe.

And all the time, I was completely fascinated by their... mind. I know they had to be picking up on cues from one another, but to me, they always seemed a form of multiply-embodied group mind.

The best moments came when I'd sit quietly on the sandbanks above the beach, as they'd be pressed in close by the tide. And though they startle easily, if you sat still, they'd eventually fly around you, within inches, as though you were a wooden post in their midst. Thousands of them, wings whirring so I can still hear them, my head stuck for a few seconds in the midst of that mind.

It was simply the BEST thing I could ever imagine.

And the other great landing and flocking and feeding place for these tiny beasts, as they trek from the Arctic to South America is, as I suspect you already knew, Chesapeake & Delaware Bay. Same birds as I suspect your Grandfather would have grown up with.

And perhaps you know them as well?

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Quinn? Are you suggesting that all great minds are .... bird-brained?

Whole new meaning to that phrase, then. Next time someone calls me that, instead of feeling chagrined, I'll just cock my head sideways, look at the person out of the corner of my eye and trill softly with dignified pride.

My parents thoroughly embarrassed my sister and me when we were children by being enthusiastic birdwatchers (although I am glad, now, that I can recognize the songs of more birds than I can count, identify a yellow-bellied sapsucker at twenty paces and felt genuinely honored, a long time ago, by a chance sighting of the elusive Red-Eyed Verrio.) But I've missed out on your sandpipers, at least by name. Although I have experienced the wonder of watching, twice, thousands of small birds in migration -- which may, or may not have been your peeps: once during an atypical trip back to the Eastern Shore with my grandparents that was unusual in that it was in the Fall. (Did they take us out of school?); and once, as an adult, when I was back in Easton on a Fall weekend visiting ancient extended family and took a magical walk through the marshes.

Otherwise, it''s been herons --mostly great blues -- and ibis with whom I've had companionable relationships in both South Carolina and Florida.

Too much personal trivia, eh?

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Nothing trivial about Great Blue Herons, WW, and I loved your story about your Grandfather's vision even more than the Land Wave video. His story alone gives me hope. And I suspect there are only a few million young people, right about now, as the economy crashes, who are having intensified thoughts about what do they TRULY want to do with their lives. As the Golden Carpet of Finance is rudely rolled up, I know - already - in my own family, these discussions are rising.

Perhaps - being a teacher - you could someday post on just this topic here? We get lots written on people who already have mortgages, or who have investments and pensions, but not so many on those in and coming out of college, eh? I personally can't write on this topic because if my nieces or nephews should read it, they'd come on and flog me for the bad advice I've already offered in my role as Uncle.... ;-)

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http://www.frogsonice.com/froggy/songs/blue.shtml

That being said, I will finally go to bed. For a short time.

I myself believe we are on the cusp, now, of a new deal even better than the old new deal.

I think we are on the road to where we want to, and have to, be.

My glass is more than half full.

And, dammit, I'm gonna keep it that way.

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I'll help. (clink)

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our solutions will come not from finding some perfect middle or moderate ground between the old forces... but by reimagining them, and moving out ahead. Which enables you to engage people who've been alienated by the existing system, the existing parties.
This is an important point. There are innovators out there. If we are, in fact, moving toward a new paradigm, they might be given a seat at the table barring:
... barriers like vested economic/political interests, organizational inertia...
If we have courageous, persuasive leadership, we can become a nation of leapfliers and set positive precedents.

Your post presented some other interesting points. Since the election I suspect many of us are trying to find a new balance in our lives.

One thing I've realized since getting well into my career path is there is little time for creating art and music which had always been a central part of my life.

Your question about the videos was a good one. Usually I skip over them much for the reason WW stated above -- my attention span. However, I also have come to realize creativity doesn't arise out of a vacuum. It needs catalysts. So I watched the videos after reading your post and came away much renewed.

Thank you, Quinn. Reading your post was time well spent on this Sunday morning.

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Thanks for the comments & kind words, CindyMax. If I have one great regret in life, it's music. My mind is utterly wired & pre-wired for it, but I ended up not pursuing it, largely for reasons of social pressure. Which, was probably understandable as a kid.

But later, I allowed my career to push it out the door almost entirely. Which, though I didn't notice it at the time, made me angry, glum; I lost thousands of memories, lost them from myself; and it made the creative click & cataclysm harder & harder to create. And once I lost that, well... not only did life get grimmer, but the career suffered as well.

And then, a couple of years ago, I found my way back. And went through months of just - ONLY - pursuing music again. It felt as though I was being re-wired. Memories, ideas, feeling, all being reconnected, and best of all, whole new forms rising up out of it.

In short, if there's any one thing I could say, it's don't lose your music & your art. You can have life without it, but I'm not sure you'll feel at the end like it was YOUR life. And no, it doesn't have to become your entire life, or career, but just... make sure it's there. A stupid speech, but when I nearly lost it, it felt a bit like walking away from a car crash, and realizing how stupid I'd been.

It was this kindof thing, a song that just gives me completely unreasonable & unreasoning pleasure, that I found I couldn't banish any longer. Thank God for The La's.

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Quinn have you tried Pandora?

It's the Music Genome project. Vera cool, I've been hearing stuff I forgot I loved, and stuff I'd probably never hear otherwise, but was glad I did.

Highly rec'd.

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Great link!

That was in no way a "stupid speech." It was a very important comment.

It baffles me how easy it's been to shunt music making aside for other things. Every time I do make the time, though, I'm utterly transformed. There is no other feeling like it.

Somewhere along the way my priorities also turned upside down. I suspect too many of us hopped on the work/chores treadmill to the exclusion of just about all else and suffered for it. What some of us are finding out is that stifling one's creative urges makes for very unhappy people.

Imagine the social transformation that could occur if everyone found the time to honor their creative impulses!

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Ah...making music, creating art...the big lie too many of us learned too early is that you needed to be an "artist" to do these things. So most of us resigned ourselves to passively consuming art instead of thinking we could create it. "Passive" may be a bit pejorative, because I know there's a lot of us who may only "just" listen to music - but we listen with an intensity and passion and fever that matters. It connects us to something bigger, deeper.

But I'd like to make the case for us amateurs to push ourselves more into the Active category. Picking up an instrument at age 40, or buying some paint, or starting a scribble and sketch book....or composing a sentence (or 50) the likes of which are found on these pages.

THAT'S where the "melting" comes from, the reimagining, the flying...

Quinn, I can't overrestimate how important I feel your post here is. In these dark days, it's so important that joe and jane know that they too can tap something different, deeper, better. God, I hope that Obama truly knows this too.

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Ah...making music, creating art...the big lie too many of us learned too early is that you needed to be an "artist" to do these things. So most of us resigned ourselves to passively consuming art instead of thinking we could create it. "Passive" may be a bit pejorative, because I know there's a lot of us who may only "just" listen to music - but we listen with an intensity and passion and fever that matters. It connects us to something bigger, deeper.

But I'd like to make the case for us amateurs to push ourselves more into the Active category. Picking up an instrument at age 40, or buying some paint, or starting a scribble and sketch book....or composing a sentence (or 50) the likes of which are found on these pages.

THAT'S where the "melting" comes from, the reimagining, the flying...

Quinn, I can't overrestimate how important I feel your post here is. In these dark days, it's so important that joe and jane know that they too can tap something different, deeper, better. God, I hope that Obama truly knows this too.

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Your idea prompted this one. An extension of leapflying. Think medieval dances. So instead of leaping "over" - you can also get two people (and more in a line) to hold hands (across from one another... as an arch) as you and a partner pass under the arch. And then form the next part of the arch. It's an interesting image because it requires people working together to make it happen... not just the one leapflying like a ballet dancer. Indeed, you could have someone who can leapfly "over" while others "flow" under the arch of hands, "seeing" the possibilities ahead. All of them working together toward these newly envisioned futures.

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Ahhh... Novelty. If you listen with your ear pressed to the steel rail, you can hear Terrence McKenna rumbling towards our destination:

"All aboard! Next stop, Omega Point!"

I don't see the future as all that sexy. I do see us finally paying attention to Bucky Fuller. Efficiency... Maximum output from minimal investment. I know that we envision new energies that test the boundaries of thermodynamics, but there is so much that can be done to improve the technologies we already have, and it bodes ill for us to wish for green to arrive feud ex kachina.

We will come to find out that wind and solar carry their own brand of devastation. Far better for us to develop efficiency and need one coal plant where we used to need four. To simply transfer the energy burden to a new technology will manifest the same problems in new variations.

Mark his words: the meek shall inherit the Earth.

Every imperial power has had to wrestle with the lords of entropy. The transition from Ra to Osiris carries terrible consequences. The naive belief that the virtue of our power can overcome decay and perpetually satisfy our appetites always meets doom. Only the meek, those that emphasize minimal footprint and maximum efficiency will give us window to our future. We have what we need to survive at our feet; we needs must simply notice them.

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The idea of physical resource limitations is a very foreign one to economists. Modern economics completely abstracts out the physical world - much like HAL, hardware abstraction layer that appeared first in WinNT (if memory serves). The idea that increased demand coupled with "ingenuity" sometimes is not enough to increase energy flows to satisfy endless growth would come as a terrific shock to most economists, who appear to have soundly failed first semester physics on their way to economics major. All modern economics is based on axiomatic acceptance of the "open system" paradigm. There doesn't appear to be any effort to underpin this critical assumption with any empirical or theoretical research, even with existence of considerable contrary evidence. For most economists the simple "trend of two points make a rising line in perpetuity" seem proof enough. Since we were able to switch from wood to coal to oil, there must be something else out there to keep things rolling forever. This curious assumption/expectation was instrumental in deflecting Marxist critique of capitalist economics early in the 20th century - by forever increasing consumption and energy use, perpetual growth resolves (or rather blunts out) the "contradictions" inherent in capitalist economics.

It seems like the jury is completely out on that score.

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Fed Ex Kachina. I like it... ;-)

Dr Z. A nicely crafted spear, and much to admire in its flight... most particularly that it soared well above my head. Background - I have lived for 48 years, and every year til this past one, been able to put my entire belongings in an old army bag. Minimal footprint? I'm on-board for it, and have walked it as best I can.

As far as "efficiency" goes, I worry that perhaps you have placed an unreasoning faith in this one. The first 10 years of my working life were in designing, then rolling out community-based (and industrial) energy efficiency efforts. We've worked on over 200,000 homes so far. Usually, we can guarantee 20% reductions. Not enough, but worth doing. If we get a shot at going deeper, 40% is doable.

But the idea that for our existing world - i.e. today's stock of houses & buildings - on a comprehensive scale, that we can get 75% efficiency reductions? That's for true believers. Yes, there're lots of architects & green builders, and Lovins with his complexity, and some portion of the population willing to run hard at simplicity. And I love them all. So, yes, we CAN build new, and get to Net Zero. And yes, we CAN do some existing buildings, factories, etc., and get 75%. And perhaps, get more of the population into lighter shoes, reduce the footprint. But 75%, with what we have? No.

So if you're feeling any pressure at all to see some weight taken off key pressure points during this next 10-20 year period, you have to add renewables. And they'll have their downsides, I have no problem admitting to that. But "their own brand of devastation?" A phrase perhaps too easily written. We'd need to compare devastations. And that line, it is "far better to for us to develop efficiency & need one coal plant where we used to need four." I'm happy to agree that boosting efficiency is great, but that specific formula? Errr, no. Neither doable, nor preferable, as written.

As for Novelty, Omega Point, the Lords of Entropy... I understand these words. But they're not my guides. On the other side of the aisle, Bucky Fuller & I are fairly well acquainted, and I've even met a few of the meek in my time. (Nice people, a bit too much tendency toward... ummm... meekness.) Minimal footprint, and minimal investment, great. Maximal output from that, certainly - as long as that's defined widely enough. But tightening the belt is not the only way to travel lightly. Nor does efficiency equate always & everywhere with the absence, or even the minimum amount, of things.

Michael Braungart's "cherry tree" metaphor has some value I think. Where he suggests we may be permitted to have beauty, richness, excess even - including with our created things - but only if they follow, and flow into larger natural cycles. I think that has something to add to our story.

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So was "feud ex kachina" was just an unfortunate slip on the keyboard? Or a new shipping term, ex works, FOB, or some ugly Slavic breakup over a duck?

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it was a typo... I have to disable the autocorrect function on my iphone.

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This is what I was hoping TPM would be like after the election.

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I was kinda hoping for free Bon Bon's, but... apparently not.

Oh? What's that you say? It's SUPER Bon Bon time?

Why didn't you say so?

Move aside & let the man go through.

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Solid post, solid comments. Thanks, Quinn.
Although I'm just a listener, music brings together all that is best in life: art, interaction, play. Without it, what would we dance to?

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I don't know why I always come in after acanuck. Always... ;)

Nevertheless, another fab post, Quinnesque. I enjoyed it, as usual.

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Started life as a drooler. Enjoyed it. Advanced quickly to drooling and walking. Walking badly, but walking. Age 11, began to speak. Drooled a bit. After that, it was mostly just incredible sex for nigh on 40 years. With the drooling. Looking forward to advanced age. Guess why.

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