Roxana Saberi: some parallels with the 1999 arrest of "spies for Israel"?
Iran Convicts US Journalist of Spying, Ali Akbar Dareini, AP, April 18, 2009:
The case of the 10 Iranian Jewish "spies for Israel" arrested in 1999 against whom charges were pursued (originally 13 were arrested, but 3 were acquitted) may be a useful guide as to how the case of Roxana Saberi, the Iranian-American journalist who has been living in Iran, will unfold now that she has actually been sentenced. First, as a spy she could have been sentenced to execution under Iranian law, but, like the 10 Iranian Jews, she was not. Second, the Iranian Jews were arrested as Iranian hardliners tried to thwart the progress that Khatami had made in improving relations with the US in 1998. A similar struggle over the relationship with the US is taking place in Iran now, in response to the Obama overtures.
So what might happen next? Convicted in July 2000 after a highly publicized trial, by September the sentences for all ten of the convicted Jewish spies, some for as long as 13 years, had been quietly reduced by 2-6 years. (Note: All but one of the alleged spies reportedly confessed, and, according to a report published in the Jerusalem Post on Aug. 9. 2000, the Israeli govt. admitted that they had, in fact, been spying for Israel!) Two had completed their reduced sentences by 2001, three were pardoned by Khamenei in Oct. 2002, and the last were freed by April 2003.
My guess is that, now that she has been sentenced, Saberi will probably be released soon after the Iranian election, whether the winner is Ahmadinejad, Mousavi or any of the other candidates. (However, an Israeli military strike against Iran, particularly if it is condoned or is only mildly rebuked, could change this.)
BTW, based upon past results, I leave room for the possibility that Iran's next president may be a total surprise to the US and global media, and perhaps even to Iranians. In 1997, conservative Ayatollah Ali Akbar Nateq-Nouri seemed to have the election sewn up, with the solid support of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei--Khatami came out of nowhere. In 2005, Ahmadinejad's election also came a surprise, even to members of his own party and faction.
The case of the 10 Iranian Jewish "spies for Israel" arrested in 1999 against whom charges were pursued (originally 13 were arrested, but 3 were acquitted) may be a useful guide as to how the case of Roxana Saberi, the Iranian-American journalist who has been living in Iran, will unfold now that she has actually been sentenced. First, as a spy she could have been sentenced to execution under Iranian law, but, like the 10 Iranian Jews, she was not. Second, the Iranian Jews were arrested as Iranian hardliners tried to thwart the progress that Khatami had made in improving relations with the US in 1998. A similar struggle over the relationship with the US is taking place in Iran now, in response to the Obama overtures.
So what might happen next? Convicted in July 2000 after a highly publicized trial, by September the sentences for all ten of the convicted Jewish spies, some for as long as 13 years, had been quietly reduced by 2-6 years. (Note: All but one of the alleged spies reportedly confessed, and, according to a report published in the Jerusalem Post on Aug. 9. 2000, the Israeli govt. admitted that they had, in fact, been spying for Israel!) Two had completed their reduced sentences by 2001, three were pardoned by Khamenei in Oct. 2002, and the last were freed by April 2003.
My guess is that, now that she has been sentenced, Saberi will probably be released soon after the Iranian election, whether the winner is Ahmadinejad, Mousavi or any of the other candidates. (However, an Israeli military strike against Iran, particularly if it is condoned or is only mildly rebuked, could change this.)
BTW, based upon past results, I leave room for the possibility that Iran's next president may be a total surprise to the US and global media, and perhaps even to Iranians. In 1997, conservative Ayatollah Ali Akbar Nateq-Nouri seemed to have the election sewn up, with the solid support of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei--Khatami came out of nowhere. In 2005, Ahmadinejad's election also came a surprise, even to members of his own party and faction.
