Long title.

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Discuss amongst yourselves. (but do not talk about Dr. Genghis's shirt collar. That is off limits.)

Recently I read a TPM blog post that put the entire race in perspective and I had an "aha!" moment of enlightenment. The blog could be summarized like this:

Hillary will win. Definitely. (I'm paraphrasing)

As I drank my morning coffee it began to add up. I started to do the math over and over in my head:

Hillary + will + win = definitely.

Now let's look at that equation. We have the who (Hillary) the when (will) and the what (win) and everyone knows that when you can answer the questions to "who?", "when?" and "what?" then you get an answer that is a cold hard fact. 

In the face of this irrefutable evidence, I, Yoda, hereby switch my alligience from Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton.    

I urge the TPM community to embrace the new math and embrace the presumptive nominee so that we may move forward with one voice and defeat the true enemy in the Fall: Barack Obama. He is so unprepared to be President and he is so woefully unelectable, that the Clinton campaign and her mighty grassroots supporters (like me) will continue to focus our attention through the general election on the one person who we know cannot pick up the red phone ringing at 3am.  The working class white voters, who are the most important in the big swing states, will reward this focus on our opponent (Barack Obama) and will vote for Hillary Clinton in record numbers in November.  

Please join the movement for super duper real change.  We're going to win. It's a fact.  Just do the math.

I can see the future and it scares me. May 6th is fast approaching and it is probably our last real chance for a clean end to the kidney stone that is the Democratic primary. We could finally end the pain if Obama could just win both NC and IN.  

He'll win NC, so the question is: can Obama end this once and for all by winning Indiana?

No.  (I just vomited in my mouth a little). I'd like to believe that Obama could win IN, I really would. But I just don't see it. I've never trusted the polls that have said the race there is a dead heat and the only pollster who has been reliably accurate, SUSA, has consistently shown Clinton with a wide lead (latest was +9).

And where does that leave us?  Ugh. It's not pretty. The primary slogs into June and God only knows what that'll mean for the tenor of the campaign. It can and will get worse. It will be a bitter end.

And what does the end look like: Obama will have an over 100 pledged delegate lead. The superdelegates will not overturn that type of margin. Don't take my word for it. Clinton advisors were saying back before OH-TX that she just needed to get within 20-30 delegates for the supers to feel comfortable overturning the pledged delegate winner. She won't be that close and by late June enough superdelegates will endorse Obama to make him the presumptive nominee.

Except, Hillary won't stop just then. The HRC campaign will continue to fight for FL and MI to be seated based on the votes held and we may even see court action.  At the same time, the campaign will hit Obama even harder in an attempt to convince all delegates that he can't win. The HRC campaign will stoop to tv ads like this one.

HRC is never gonna give up.
Unless Obama can win in Indiana.  
Save us Obi-wan-Indiana, you're our only hope!

The primary has finally (painfully) reached my home state of North Carolina. It is the single largest delegate state remaining and most experts believe (and the polling has indicated) that it'll be a win for Obama.

A North Carolina overview: I've lived in the state for the past decade and in that time the state has always had a Democratic controlled legislature (both chambers) and a Democrat in the Governor's mansion. At the same time, you can reliably expect that the GOP Presidential candidate will win 55% of the vote. Our two US Senators are Republicans (Dole, Burr) and the Congressional delegation is barely held by the Dems 7:6.

The economy actually remains fairly good (compared to the rest of the country) in the urban areas, especially in the Triangle (Chapel Hill-Durham-Raleigh). The state expects to pick up another seat in Congress after the next census and the population is growing year after year. While there is a large Latino population, there is not a large Latino voting base. As the population has grown, political power has slowly started to shift away from more conservative rural Democrats to more urban progressive Democrats. Last year, one of the most progressive state legislators, Joe Hackney from Chapel Hill, became Speaker of the House.

The vast majority of voters live in what's called the Piedmont Crescent: from Charlotte (the most populous city) up through Winston Salem and Greensboro and over to Raleigh. Winning this vote is critical to winning a Democratic Primary.

NC delegate overview: NC has 115 pledged delegates up for grabs on May 6th (+ 19 superdelegates for a total of 134). 77 of the 115 pledged delegates are allocated by 13 Congressional Districts while 38 delegates are awarded based on total statewide votes.

Other tidbits on NC: NC was awarded extra delegates for not moving up its primary (FYI to FL and MI). There are 13 congressional districts with different numbers of delegates awarded in each (from 4-9). Over 35% of registered Dems identify as African-American. Unaffiliated voters can vote in the Dem primary, but not registered Republicans The state has a prominent early voting program which allows voters to vote in the two weeks before Election Day. A new law allows people to register and vote on the same day during the early voting period. This type of same day registration has been very effective with turning out young voters in other states. There are tons of young voters and highly educated voters in the 4th congressional district (which has the most delegates at stake). Obama has been endorsed by most of the Democratic establishment, including Progressive and Conservative Democrats.

Congressional district delegate allocation breakdown:
First District:
- 6 delegates. 54% likely African-American primary voters
Second District
- 6 delegates. 39% likely AA primary voters
Third District
- 4 delegates. 21% likely AA primary voters
Fourth District
- 9 delegates. 23% likely AA primary voters
Fifth District
- 5 delegates. 11% likely AA primary voters
Sixth District
- 5 delegates. 14% likely AA primary voters
Seventh District
- 6 delegates. 25% likely AA primary voters
Eighth District
- 5 delegates. 35% likely AA primary voters
Ninth District
- 6 delegates. 18% likely AA primary voters
Tenth District
- 5 delegates. 12% likely AA primary voters
Eleventh District
- 6 delegates. 5% likely AA primary voters
Twelfth District
- 7 delegates. 56% likely AA primary voters
Thirteenth District
- 7 delegates. 33% likely AA primary voters

One of the things that jumps out with these numbers is that the demographics of the largest delegate districts favor Obama. The fourth district (with the most delegates at stake) will be interesting. Lots of young voters and highly educated voters that have been so favorable to Obama. But also strong networks by women's advocacy groups like Planned Parenthood and Emily's List. If Clinton can make the 4th competitive, then she could keep the margin closer than most expect.

My back of the envelope guesses would have Obama coming out of May 6th with 42 of the 77 district delegates (a 7 delegate pickup). He then probably gain another 5-8 delegates for winning the popular vote. I think Obama's total delegate pickup will be at worst 10 and at best 20. I'd say his popular vote victory will be 58% - 42%.

I know there are other North Carolinians on TPM so please share youir insight into the Tar Heel state as well.

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