While it appears that February is going to be a rough month overall for Hillary Clinton, there's also good evidence to say that with the proportional allocation of delegates it will be near impossible to anyone to get the nomination before the convention. And many people believe that March will be Hillary's comeback.
But IF someone were to do it, based on what happened this weekend and what's likely to happen Tuesday, Obama is probably the one who could win before the convention - but it would take a perfect storm of events.
Here's what I think that would look like:
- Obama wins big in the primaries on Feb 12th and Feb 19th (very plausible with Wisconsin being the best chance for Hillary)
- With a full month of victories and momentum, Obama continues to be flush with campaign cash and is able to spend lots of time and money in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (very plausible) while at the same time...
- Hillary, after a horrible February, is bringing in substantially less money than Obama and her donor base begins to dry up. Her campaign focuses spending in Texas with some in Ohio but almost nothing in Pennsylvania. (I would say possible but not likely. She would probably loan her campaign more money to keep pace if necessary)
- Hillary, like Rudy with Florida, tells everyone repeatedly that she's going to comeback big in March and make her statement in Ohio and Texas. (seems plausible that the campaign will want to tell supporters that they'll win soon)
- Obama wins Ohio and Texas by any margin and the media begin to question Hillary's campaign credibility (not likely right now but with time possible. I think he's more likely to win OH than TX).
- More money pours into Obama campaign, superdelegates continue to line up behind him while no new super-delegates get behind Hillary. (IF he wins TX and OH, certainly likely scenario)
- Hillary has bad money problems and some staff/advisors begin to leave the campaign or go without pay (IF she loses TX and OH, then plausible)
- Hillary again says that they'l win the next big contest but loses Pennsylvania by any margin. (I would say it's higly unlikely that Hillary loses Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.)
- Hillary, virtually out of money and hasn't won at state since CA, concedes defeat.
Even with all this, I don't think Hillary would drop out if the delegate count isn't out of hand - and there's almost no way for Obama (or Hillary) to get way ahead in the delegate count at this point because of proportional allocation.
But this scenario is where she believes that she can bet big by saying that everything will be better after OH and TX. But if she loses that bet then I could see how the nomination is in Obama's hands before the convention.
Otherwise, I don't think this thing gets decided until August.
