Obama has clinched the nomination according to the Associated Press. (not that we didn't already know it was over - but it's nice to make it official)

Here's what I'd like you to do with this thread:

1. Tell me what you're going to do between now and November 4th to make sure that Barack Obama is the next President of the United States.

2. Click here to show John McCain and the the GOP how difficult it's going to be to campaign against Barack Obama.

3. Tell me which TPM blogger avatar will be picked as Obama's VP nominee.

Yes We Can!

One of the things that kept occurring to me this Saturday during the RBC meeting was how fortunate the Democratic Party is right now. The RBC meeting of the DNC was uncomfortable in many ways, what with protesters inside and outside. People squirmed a little here and there. But overall, it was a fairly painless affair.

But imagine for a moment what it could have been: what if Hillary had done better in the primary and caucus elections? What if she won 2-3 more delegates per state contest? Ok, winning another 100 or more pledged delegates is harder than it sounds. But just imagine for a moment a scenario heading into Saturday in which Clinton was not behind Obama by 150 pledged delegates - but instead was behind by less than 20.

Now what does the RBC do? And try to picture the protests and counter-protests that could have been this Saturday. It could have been really ugly.

The Democratic Party has to undertake a major reform of the primary process for selecting their nominee for President.

A start for the reforms would be:
- Abolish the superdelegates
- Hold only primaries - no caucuses, no hybrids,
- Each state mandates that Republicans are not allowed to vote in Democratic primaries
- Come to an agreeable compromise on who will be the early voting states (I'm in favor of rotating regionally). 
 
We can't risk this sort of debacle again. Ewspecailly when you consider the alternate reality of an even closer election. 

Let's fix it before we regret it. 

A prominent blogger friend of mine sent me this email thread today - which conclusively demonstrates a pro-Hillary bias at TPM. (as many of us have suspected). My blogger friend says that a staff person at TPM forwarded this to him by mistake. Now the TPM staff can no longer deny the cold, hard reality of their secret agenda.

I've copied the email thread below. You may need to read the thread from the bottom up.

<blockquote>
-----------------
To: hillster@hillaryclinton.com 
From: gregsargent@talkingpointsmemo.com
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: TPM Post 

Hill - you are the best!

Love you,
Greg
---------------------------
To: gregsargent@talkingpointsmemo.com
From: hillster@hillaryclinton.com
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: TPM Post 

Yes, I'm still blogging away at TPM. Don't forget that I'm also gotalife and Matthew Weaver. If only the kool-aid drinkers knew it - LOL!

I have another title suggestion for you: "Poll finds that Clinton is more likeable than Obama"

I just had Chelsea mail you all some free Hillraiser t-shirts at the TPM headquarters. 

xoxoxo,
H
------------------
To: hillster@hillaryclinton.com 
From: gregsargent@talkingpointsmemo.com
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: TPM Post 

Hill,
 
I will do as you suggest. I can always count on you for independent analysis and suggestions. I swear I wouldn't have a job here if it wasn't for you. Halo 3 rocks, thanks!

Are you still blogging at TPM as "Present" and Otto F? You really know how to rattle those Obamabots!

Can't wait to see you again. The shots are on me next time, Madam President.

Love ya,
Greg

------------------------
To: gregsargent@talkingpointsmemo.com
From: hillster@hillaryclinton.com
Subject: Re: Re: Re: TPM Post 

Gregy-poo,

You don't want to write some silly little story about me not being the Vice-President, do you? Everyone is writing that story.

What about something unique? How about a story about how my path to the nomination isn't mathematically impossibel since every remaining superdelegate could in theory endorse me next week?  You could even title it "Hillary's path to the nomnination not at all impossible." Or even better would be "Some say Hillary could be the nominee" 

Did you get the x-box360 I sent?

Can't wait to see you and all the TPM boys when I'm back in NYC.

Kisses,
H
-------------------------------
To: hillster@hillaryclinton.com 
From: gregsargent@talkingpointsmemo.com
Subject: Re: TPM Post 

Hi Hill,

Glad you enjoyed the post and the creative title. I couldn't have done it without you. I'm working on another one that discusses how unlikely it is that you'll be the Vice-Presidential nominee. Do you have any title suggestions for that one?

Thanks for sending the box of chocolates last week but remember that Josh is allergic to nuts.

Take care,

Greg

----------------------
To: gregsargent@talkingpointsmemo.com
From: hillster@hillaryclinton.com
Subject: TPM post

Greg,

Thank you for your post today at Election Central about the Florida and Michigan delegates and the possible scenarios for resolution. I appreciate your even handed approach and giving my point of view a chance.

I especially enjoyed your title, "Obama hates Florida and Michigan voters."

All the best,
Hill
</blockquote>

As I have to tell my son every couple of weeks: lightsabers aren't real. Neither is this email thread. Neither is the alleged TPM Clinton bias.    

This post is inspired by a couple of others that I'd suggest you check out. First, I'd recommend TPM's Eric Kleefield's post on Obama's electoral map and his possible paths to the White House. Then I'd check out two posts over at Ben Smith's blog at politico.com:

1. First, this post shows us that Survey USA and other pollsters continue to have a hard time polling African-American voters accurately. The trend in the primary polling was a general underestimating of Obama's support with African-American voters. Expect that trend to continue unless the pollsters change something or until the general election is closer.
 
2. This other post at Smith's blog shows the electoral map predicted in May 2004 based on the polling back then. You can look at this glass as half full or half empty for Obama, but really the only thing you should take away is that polls in May aren't very accurate predictions for the November election.  

How accurate it the polling happening right now? I think there's some compelling evidence to say, not very accurate. Let's focus in on that first post from Ben Smith's blog. Survey USA was one of the more accurate pollsters this year, although they all had hits and misses.  SUSA says that McCain is beating Obama by 4 points in Michigan (and of course Hillary supporters are going to pounce on that as evidence that he is a weak candidate). 

But let's look at SUSA's numbers:
- Obama is winning African American vote 62% - 26%.
- Obama is winning Wayne County 44%- 42%. (Wayne County is home to Detroit and about 1 million of Michigan's voters.

Now here are two things that are going to happen in November that are related and important: Barack Obama will win over 90% of the votes from African Americans (given that white Democrats have been getting in the 85 - 90% range of those votes) and ANY Democrat will win Wayne County, Michigan by more than 2:1. In 2004, Kerry won the county with nearly 70% of the vote.

So my word of caution is to avoid reading too much into any poll released for any election to be held in months rather than weeks. Even from respected pollsters like SUSA. They are just relaying the data as it comes to them - but when we dig a little deeper I think we can see how flawed opinion polls are this far out. Generally, I think the polls are pretty close a week or two from an election (minus New Hampshire) but months before an election they are going to be way off. Hell, remember how just a couple of months before Iowa and New Hampshire the polls stated that Rudy Guiliani and Hillary Clinton were sure to be the nominees?

But please do make plenty of guesses and predictions about what will happen in November - that's the fun part.  

Not really. But when it is leaked, it's going to read something like this (except longer):

"I concede. I'm proud of you and I'm proud of me. I like Obama, I really do. Obama's a good candidate. Vote for Obama."

Obama people - listen up!
But here's what I really wanted to say now that I've got your attention: (I'm sorry I've misled you but it's for your own good.) Please stop the Hillary hate. I was pretty dismayed to hear that folks at the Obama-Edwards event yesterday started booing at the mention of Hillary. The same attitude continues on many TPM blogs and comments.  

It's ok because the race is over. Let it go. It is not cool to boo or taunt a team that is about to lose the game, especially when the game is an intrasquad scrimmage.

Stop directing ugly comments towards the Clintons. It's pointless. Hillary is letting up on the Obama attacks and has essentially called a ceasefire. It's time we all reciprocated. 

It's time to start the healing process.  So, here's your three step process for kicking your bad hating habits:
The next time you read a comment from a Hillary die-hard and you want to respond by writing that Clinton is never getting your vote because she is "insert hateful language here", I want you to do the following:

1. Take a deep breath
2. Say to yourself "Obama is the nominee, Obama is the nominee, Obama is the nominee"
3. Exhale.

Repeat as necessary and feel free to picture yourself playing a game of hoops or drinking a PBR with the Democratic presumptive nominee as you discuss his possible VP pick.

To Hillary supporters: I'm sorry. It's sucks that your candidate lost and you fought valiantly for her. I salute you. I know you're going to need some time to get over this and I'll give you space as best I can. (I may take a jab at Terry McAuliffe or Harold Ickes or Mark Penn from time to time).

I hope you'll give Obama a chance. I wasn't sold on Obama the first time I heard him. I too didn't really understand all the fuss about him and worried that he sounded too much like someone who wouldn't fight for progressive values. But get to know him a little better. He's on our side. He's worth fighting for. But more importantly, the progressive values that we all share (with him) are worth fighting for. 

Democrats are poised to control Congress and the White House and there's a whole lot of good that can be done in that scenario. We'll need all the help we can get to make it happen and I hope you're there with us through November and beyond.

These three GOP losses in red congressional districts have me thinking back to a Wall Street Journal article from last September.

We've been talking so much about "demographic" splits in the Democratic electorate recently, it is worth remembering that at least Dems have significant differences in voter demographics.

The last line of the WSJ article reads:

The Fabrizio survey found that just 2% of Republicans are Hispanic, along with 1% who are black. "We've made no progress in 10 years," the pollster says -- not a good sign "in a nation that is becoming more heavily minority."

According to the Fabrizio study:  the GOP is 93% white (page 85, although I think it's actually closer to 95%. Note that 2% refused to answer).

I think that we should all be prepared for the fact that the racial dynamics and gaffes that have played out in the Democratic primary (SC vs WV, G. Ferraro, Rev. Wright, L. Farakan, Bill on Jesse, media talk about "working class white voters", etc, etc...) are going to be something around x10 in the general election? Hell, Obama's offices have already been vandalized with racist crap in the primary. It's going to get seriously worse.

Just as with the primary, we're rarely going to hear the worst stuff from the opponent's mouth directly, but these racial/ethnic/societal divisions will be more pronounced and more talked about and more apparent than perhaps since the end of segregation in America. (or perhaps more recently, the way there was a clear split in the country after the OJ not guilty verdict).

But what's the result? I think it all ends up driving more and more maintream Americans running from the GOP. The base of the Republican Party will become more whiter (yes, whiter than 95%), more conservative, and more ding bat crazy. If Hillary were the nominee, I think the same sexist culture of the white men's club at the GOP would have had the same result. 

I don't think this is a bad thing either. I think the deeply held yet rarely spoken racial stereotypes and insensitivity of today's GOP will be brought under a huge microscope (already having a member of Congress call Obama "boy") and will further push away moderate and young GOPers.

 The GOP is in a pitiful state. It's going to get worse. The take over of the GOP by social conservatives is coming full circle and it's going to be a hard hit this November.

Here's my little list of the weirdest, worst, and best moments of the campaign so far. Please add yours in the comments.

Weirdest: The first things that pop into my head here include Mike Gravel's rock in a pond ad and the story of Mike Huckabee frying a squirrel in college.  Walker Texas Ranger celebrating beside Huckabee in Iowa was sort of surreal.  Every Ron Paul supporter I've met would qualify as kind of weird. Weird stories include actual news stories about Obama's lack of bowling skills or what it means that Hillary downed a shot at a bar. The NAFTA-Canada story was bizarre too in that I'm still not sure what went down and who said what to whom in Canada. 

I'm going to have to go back to Gravel. The man was at emocratic debates and would be largely ignored. He freakin switched to the Libertarian Party recently yet was still on the North Carolina ballot last week. And then there was the rock being thrown into the pond. Shouldn't we all be demanding that HE drop out before we demand that Hillary do so?

Worst: Obviously, there are a lot of possible nominations in this category. I'm not going to list them all for fear that I may throw up in my mouth a little bit.

I'm going to call this one a tie. And the winners are Geraldine Ferraro and Joe Lieberman!  Two former VP nominees who have utterly embarassed themselves this year. First, Ferraro with her ridiculous statement that Obama was lucky to be a black man running for President. But what made it worse was that she went on all the talk shows and the nightly news programs to "make this whole thing go away" and then repeatedly the same claim time and again. It was sad and painful to watfch a person of such historical importance in the Democratic party to be so ignorant and clueless to the offensivenes of her comments.

Lieberman has earned a share of the prize with his endorsement and campaigning for Senator McCain. The man who was painfuly close to being the Democratic Vice President jsut 8 years ago. And then recently he even pulled out the "Hamas likes Obama" smear. Another former nominee for VP and another utter embarassment. 

Best:  This is obviously biased given my candidate of choice, but it would have to be Iowa. I honestly can't remember what the polls predicted would happen leading up to Iowa but I was utterly shocked that a liberal African-American Senator could win the Iowa caucus. South Carolina was not so surprising - but Iowa? 

There aren't many times in politics that I get chills but during his victory speech I was completely slack jawed at what I was seeing. It gave me a certain amount of - dare I say - hope about the possibilities for this country (no matter waht happens from here on out). 

Okay, before you critique mine: what have been the weirdest, worst, and best moments for you?

1. Women won: While Obama trounced Clinton at the top of the ticket, the day belonged in many ways to Democratic women.  The Party's nominee for the Governor will be Bev Perdue, a long time legislator and the current Lt. Governor. The party selected state Senator Kay Hagen to take on Elizabeth Dole in the fall as well. Both Hagen are moderate to conservative Democrats who in fact are well connected to the good ol boys and lobbyists of Raleigh. 

In addition to Perdue and Hagen, a number of other women won their primaries for statewide office. These included progressive state Senator and rising Democratic star Janet Cowell, who was selected to run for state Treasurer. Beth Wood won her primary to run for state Auditor. June Atkinson fended off a tough primary opponent for the State Superintendent of schools. Mary Fant Donnan got the most votes and will be in a runoff election to be the nominee for the Commissioner of Labor.

In November, women will be well represented on North Carolina's ballot. 

2. Democratic Turnout: As has been the case across the country, it was historic (over 36% turnout for a primary, over 2 million ballots cast, and over 1.5 million asked for the Democratic ballot). More people cast a Democratic ballot on Tuesday than voted for John Kerry in the 2004 General Election. Thousands of people switched to Democratic registration leading up to the primary.

When 400 people are waiting in line to vote at 7:30 at night when the poll has closed, you've got a lot of excitement in the primary. There were also nearly a half million votes cast early and around 50,000 who registered at the early voting sites (a new law that effectively changed the registration deadline to 3 days before the election instead of 25).

3. Those weird "women's voices" robo-calls: I could write pages and pages about this little episode. For folks who are interested in the story, check out Facing South or Democracy North Carolina's website. 

I think we need to learn more about the details of Women Voices Women Votes actions before deciding whether they were incompetent on a Titanic scale or whether there was something more sinister at work. This is not some shady 527 organization, they are funded by the usual foundations who promote totally above board and progressive non-partisan civic engagement activities. But it's also possible that staff or consultants for the organization took liberties and made tactical decisions that they knew would benefit a particular candidate in the primary process.
I don't know if we'll ever know the truth. My hunch is that the big scandal will be one of fraud: apparently their major expenditures went to consulting contracts to the husband of the organization's President. His firm made the robo-calls and did the mailings and you have to wonder how this was allowed to happen. It is hard to overcome the fact though that they told the Virginia police that the deceptive and anonymous calls would stop back in early February and yet continued into North Carolina in late April. The connections to the Clinton family raise troubling questions but at this point I doubt a direct campaign link because if they wanted to help her there are so many other legal ways that they could have picked.

4. North Carolina is in play in November: There has been some polling to back this up but I'm not going to link to anything. I'm just going to say that it's a feeling that the combination of many colleges, growing educated population, strong African American registration rates, and a solid Democratic political machine (compared to a routinely divided and inept state GOP), puts the state in play for Obama. He doesn't need to win, just make McCain spend time and money here.

5. I missed my chance to have a beer with Barack Obama: It's election day on Tuesday and it's about 5:30pm (an hour an half until the polls closed).  I'd been knocking on doors since noon making sure that people get out and vote for Obama. At that moment, I get a text message from a friend who says she got a tip that Obama is going to be at a Raleigh bar in 5 minutes and if I want to meet him face to face, now is my chance. 

Dilemma time. Do I leave my post, stop canvassing and go meet the next President of the United States? I thought about it for about 10 seconds and went back to knocking on doors. Meanwhile, my friend got to shake Obama's hand as he ordered a Pabst Blue Ribbon (leaving the bartender an $18 tip).

If I'd have known he would win by over 200,000 votes I totally would have been at the bar.

Thanks to the Obama staff and volunteers for helping to make sure that North Carolina played a big role in choosing the next President.

For the other North Carolinians on TPM, please share your experiences and thoughts as well.

Long title.

No story.

Discuss amongst yourselves. (but do not talk about Dr. Genghis's shirt collar. That is off limits.)

Recently I read a TPM blog post that put the entire race in perspective and I had an "aha!" moment of enlightenment. The blog could be summarized like this:

Hillary will win. Definitely. (I'm paraphrasing)

As I drank my morning coffee it began to add up. I started to do the math over and over in my head:

Hillary + will + win = definitely.

Now let's look at that equation. We have the who (Hillary) the when (will) and the what (win) and everyone knows that when you can answer the questions to "who?", "when?" and "what?" then you get an answer that is a cold hard fact. 

In the face of this irrefutable evidence, I, Yoda, hereby switch my alligience from Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton.    

I urge the TPM community to embrace the new math and embrace the presumptive nominee so that we may move forward with one voice and defeat the true enemy in the Fall: Barack Obama. He is so unprepared to be President and he is so woefully unelectable, that the Clinton campaign and her mighty grassroots supporters (like me) will continue to focus our attention through the general election on the one person who we know cannot pick up the red phone ringing at 3am.  The working class white voters, who are the most important in the big swing states, will reward this focus on our opponent (Barack Obama) and will vote for Hillary Clinton in record numbers in November.  

Please join the movement for super duper real change.  We're going to win. It's a fact.  Just do the math.

I can see the future and it scares me. May 6th is fast approaching and it is probably our last real chance for a clean end to the kidney stone that is the Democratic primary. We could finally end the pain if Obama could just win both NC and IN.  

He'll win NC, so the question is: can Obama end this once and for all by winning Indiana?

No.  (I just vomited in my mouth a little). I'd like to believe that Obama could win IN, I really would. But I just don't see it. I've never trusted the polls that have said the race there is a dead heat and the only pollster who has been reliably accurate, SUSA, has consistently shown Clinton with a wide lead (latest was +9).

And where does that leave us?  Ugh. It's not pretty. The primary slogs into June and God only knows what that'll mean for the tenor of the campaign. It can and will get worse. It will be a bitter end.

And what does the end look like: Obama will have an over 100 pledged delegate lead. The superdelegates will not overturn that type of margin. Don't take my word for it. Clinton advisors were saying back before OH-TX that she just needed to get within 20-30 delegates for the supers to feel comfortable overturning the pledged delegate winner. She won't be that close and by late June enough superdelegates will endorse Obama to make him the presumptive nominee.

Except, Hillary won't stop just then. The HRC campaign will continue to fight for FL and MI to be seated based on the votes held and we may even see court action.  At the same time, the campaign will hit Obama even harder in an attempt to convince all delegates that he can't win. The HRC campaign will stoop to tv ads like this one.

HRC is never gonna give up.
Unless Obama can win in Indiana.  
Save us Obi-wan-Indiana, you're our only hope!

The primary has finally (painfully) reached my home state of North Carolina. It is the single largest delegate state remaining and most experts believe (and the polling has indicated) that it'll be a win for Obama.

A North Carolina overview: I've lived in the state for the past decade and in that time the state has always had a Democratic controlled legislature (both chambers) and a Democrat in the Governor's mansion. At the same time, you can reliably expect that the GOP Presidential candidate will win 55% of the vote. Our two US Senators are Republicans (Dole, Burr) and the Congressional delegation is barely held by the Dems 7:6.

The economy actually remains fairly good (compared to the rest of the country) in the urban areas, especially in the Triangle (Chapel Hill-Durham-Raleigh). The state expects to pick up another seat in Congress after the next census and the population is growing year after year. While there is a large Latino population, there is not a large Latino voting base. As the population has grown, political power has slowly started to shift away from more conservative rural Democrats to more urban progressive Democrats. Last year, one of the most progressive state legislators, Joe Hackney from Chapel Hill, became Speaker of the House.

The vast majority of voters live in what's called the Piedmont Crescent: from Charlotte (the most populous city) up through Winston Salem and Greensboro and over to Raleigh. Winning this vote is critical to winning a Democratic Primary.

NC delegate overview: NC has 115 pledged delegates up for grabs on May 6th (+ 19 superdelegates for a total of 134). 77 of the 115 pledged delegates are allocated by 13 Congressional Districts while 38 delegates are awarded based on total statewide votes.

Other tidbits on NC: NC was awarded extra delegates for not moving up its primary (FYI to FL and MI). There are 13 congressional districts with different numbers of delegates awarded in each (from 4-9). Over 35% of registered Dems identify as African-American. Unaffiliated voters can vote in the Dem primary, but not registered Republicans The state has a prominent early voting program which allows voters to vote in the two weeks before Election Day. A new law allows people to register and vote on the same day during the early voting period. This type of same day registration has been very effective with turning out young voters in other states. There are tons of young voters and highly educated voters in the 4th congressional district (which has the most delegates at stake). Obama has been endorsed by most of the Democratic establishment, including Progressive and Conservative Democrats.

Congressional district delegate allocation breakdown:
First District:
- 6 delegates. 54% likely African-American primary voters
Second District
- 6 delegates. 39% likely AA primary voters
Third District
- 4 delegates. 21% likely AA primary voters
Fourth District
- 9 delegates. 23% likely AA primary voters
Fifth District
- 5 delegates. 11% likely AA primary voters
Sixth District
- 5 delegates. 14% likely AA primary voters
Seventh District
- 6 delegates. 25% likely AA primary voters
Eighth District
- 5 delegates. 35% likely AA primary voters
Ninth District
- 6 delegates. 18% likely AA primary voters
Tenth District
- 5 delegates. 12% likely AA primary voters
Eleventh District
- 6 delegates. 5% likely AA primary voters
Twelfth District
- 7 delegates. 56% likely AA primary voters
Thirteenth District
- 7 delegates. 33% likely AA primary voters

One of the things that jumps out with these numbers is that the demographics of the largest delegate districts favor Obama. The fourth district (with the most delegates at stake) will be interesting. Lots of young voters and highly educated voters that have been so favorable to Obama. But also strong networks by women's advocacy groups like Planned Parenthood and Emily's List. If Clinton can make the 4th competitive, then she could keep the margin closer than most expect.

My back of the envelope guesses would have Obama coming out of May 6th with 42 of the 77 district delegates (a 7 delegate pickup). He then probably gain another 5-8 delegates for winning the popular vote. I think Obama's total delegate pickup will be at worst 10 and at best 20. I'd say his popular vote victory will be 58% - 42%.

I know there are other North Carolinians on TPM so please share youir insight into the Tar Heel state as well.

If you enjoyed this post, please click on the recommend this link to share with others.

NBC's political director, Chuck Todd, calls the race for pledged delegates "over." In less than three minutes, Todd shows demonstrates why he can now safely call Barack Obama as the winner in the race for the most pledged delegates in the Democratic nomination process.  See the video here. 

Of course, anyone who reads TPM and who follows this race closely already knew that the pledged delegate count was insurmountable. Todd and others "calling" the pledge delegate race over officially is the same as when they call a state for a candidate based on the numbers that have been reported, even if much of a state has not yet reported in.

Why does this matter: There is one group of people who no longer have to wait for additional information to "vote."  If a superdelegate has said that they will support the winner of the pledged delegate count, then we can start counting those people as Obama superdelegates. 

As for the argument that the so-called popular vote is more important than the pledged delegate count, I'd say that's a wonderful arguement when you know that your candidate will not win the most pledged delegates.  Unfortunately, it also will never be a clean or accurate count. PocketNines at Daily Kos explains the three reasons why the popular vote is a horrible measuring stick in the primary. 

So go celebrate you latte flavored kool-aid drinking Obamatrons! The race is effectively over unless Obama pulls a Spitzer (prostitute) or a Hillary (hires Mark Penn).

Now let's talk about McSame...

Hillary Clinton is not fit to be the Democratic nominee for two words and over 10 million reasons: Mark Penn.

Penn's political consulting firm, Penn, Schoen & Berland, has been paid $10.8 million so far by Clinton's campaign.

Meanwhile, your campaign is getting a reputation as a bit of a deadbeat.

It says a lot about Clinton that she keeps paying this guy this kind of money as a top advisor month after month - even after he has demonstrated that he has led her down a losing path.

And now he goes and meets the Colombian government about a free trade plan that Hillary says she opposes. She's not paying him over $10 million to prioritize other clients' needs.

Hillary - do something good for yourself and for the Democratic Party. Do something that Obamabots and Hillbots can agree on: Fire Mark Penn. He's probably already talking with Dick Morris about writing the foreword to Penn's tell all book do out next year. Get out while you still can!

Here's an interesting post from Jake Tapper at ABC News' Political Punch. I've been thinking along the same lines and considering the question: how would the impeachment/Monica episode be addressed if Hillary is the nominee? Tapper's post is titled "On Chelsea, Monica, and the Scandal that Dare Not Speak Its Name." He writes:

it's nothing short of astonishing that we've made it this far in the campaign with few serious questions to Sen. Clinton about the impeachment of her husband. Obviously, Sen. Obama won't touch it with a ten-foot pole. I'm not sure the Republicans will be that chivalrous.

I agree that Obama shouldn't touch the subject and that the GOP will make this a significant issue one way or another if Hillary is on the ticket. Imagine how much FOX and CNN would love to talk about Lewinsky again, the blue dress, and intern jokes (i.e. will Bill Clinton be allowed to have interns as First Man?). And to be honest, the "Clinton baggage" is a big reason that a lot of Democrats I know immediately gravitated to other candidates in the primary.

McCain may take some jabs on the issue but it will likely come from people outside of the McCain campaign, the swift boaters. They will be working hard to find ways to inject Bill's "that depends what is is" into all manner of the political discourse. I can hear the pundits and the swift boaters already: "Is Hillary Clinton lying about her foreign policy credentials? That depends on what is is."

And this whole thing also circles back to a big problem that I have with Clinton's claim of "35 years of experience." She wants to claim the best of Bill's record (Family Medical Leave, Bosnia, N. Ireland) and wants complete distance/insulation from the worst (NAFTA, Rwanda, and Monica). If she is on the ticket, a BIG if, shouldn't we expect an explosion of chatter and innuendo regarding the "The scandal that dare not speak its name"? And if so, isn't this a legitimate consideration for superdelegates right now, what with Ickes quietly hammering away on Obama's Rev. Wright baggage?

If electability is the issue, let's start to really consider what will happen to Hillary's poll numbers if the "scandal that dare not speak its name" comes to the forefront of the general election. What IF there's some other skeleton in Bill's closet (another affair, intern, Spitzer, etc) that becomes public before the general? We won't be able to talk about health care, the war, or the economy as the headlines and public chatter will all be about the Clinton's baggage.

It is an unspoken topic that superdelegates should be considering as they make their decision.

Update before I could finish this post: I just watched an MSNBC report about the Hillary-Bosnia story at www.jedreport.com. Chris Matthews asked his guests if Hillary's Bosnia sniper story is "a problem that dovetails into the old "what's the definition of is is?" and one of the guests responds that "People are going to start wondering if this is a family problem." So yes, I guess the Monica scandal will come back to haunt Hillary's campaign.

Yeah, it's Chris Matthews, but imagine how much play these types of jokes will get if the GOP is pushing the trustworthy/honesty issues of the Clinton's in the fall.

Author's note: I am voting for Hillary in the general if she's on the ticket. By criticizing her campaign and pondering various scenarios for the general election, I am only helping to make sure she is fully vetted for the battle ahead.

I also tried posting this twice today and the posts were cut off. Sorry for the third attempt.  Edit/delete option would be awesome TPM.

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