Week of September 14, 2008 - September 20, 2008
September 16, 2008, 1:09AM
It seems to me that the crux of the difference between contemporary Democratic and Republican philosophies regarding regulation can be described as follows: Republicans fret over sacrifices in optimal efficiency; Democratics work to avoid catastrophe. The reason, then, that I can defend my choice of the Democratic party (in addition to being a radical egalitarian on social issues) is that catastrophe precludes the ability to adjust to conditions without widespread human suffering. The sacrifice of optimal efficiency, on the other hand, goes virtually unnoticed in people's daily lives, except in the imaginations of megalomaniacal mediocraties and swindlers who believe that the only barrier to thier ascendence into the ranks of heroes is some pain-in-the-ass trying to keep them from poisoning their neighbors' water and food supply.
September 15, 2008, 4:00PM
Take a look at these data:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=43154ee9-1bca-4042-84df-131e90cc13ad
Look in particular at the "Change Your Mind" columns. Although McCain is up 49-45 in the overall poll (fairly small sample size of 692 LVs), Obama's up 49-48 among those voters who say they're certain about their choice. Among those who say they might change their minds, McCain wins 55-31. With 18% of LV respondents in this category, we can imagine an 10% (.55*.18=.099) swing in Obama's favor through a resurgent campaign and a full-bore ground game.
Of course, we could also imagine a 5-6% swing in McCain's favor, but right now I prefer to think about ways we can win.
September 14, 2008, 1:15PM
We're all aware of the Rovian strategy of attacking his opponent's strength. Despite all of his despicable flaws, Rove is right on this one. If you break down your opponent's strengths, they have nothing with which to fight.
I just listened to the podcast of today's Meet the Press, and Brokaw, as moderator, led off by quoting polling internals that showed McCain's "leadership" ratings as high and rising. Thus, perceptions of his leadership is his strength. Attack his leadership.
How? I've said it before and I'll say it again. His selection of Palin over Lieberman reveals that he's not in charge of his own campaign, nor his own party. This reveals a failure in his ability or willingness to lead. Call him on it. Every day. McCain cannot lead his own campaign. McCain cannot lead his own party. He cannot lead the country.
His policy affinity with Bush is his weakness. That works for us pretty much on its own. While it's necessary to highlight differences on issues, it's not the right kind of kung fu that disables the opponent's campaign. Most issue voters have likely made up their minds. The rest is about mobilization and counter-mobilization. Obama's got no problem mobilizating his own constituents. He's got to include a strategy of de-mobilizing those folks who still subscribe to the ridiculous notion that McCain is a strong leader.