Last week, the United States deployed a second aircraft carrier
to the Persian Gulf, while insisting that this move was not a signal of
escalating tensions between the United States
and Iran but instead was a “reminder”
to Iran.
With Admiral Fallon’s retirement, an opponent to a war with Iran, and General Petraeus’ promotion to his job
as CENTCOM commander, it would seem that a war with Iran might be in the cards.
As many of us know, the war against
Iraq
wasn’t about Iraqi freedom as the Bush administration tried to convince us, it
wasn’t about terrorism, it was about oil. It was about the fact that in 2000,
Saddam Hussein “insisted Iraq’s oil be sold for euros, a political move, but
one that improved Iraq’s recent earnings thanks to the rise in the value of the
euro against the dollar.”
For the
same reasons the United States attacked Iraq,
the United States is now flexing
its military muscle to intimidate Iran. In the summer of 2003, Iran began
discussing plans to stop selling oil in dollars and instead begin trading in
euros. To further this plan, Iran
also began making plans to create its own stock exchange, the Iranian Oil
Bourse. This would create problems for the United States because oil is
currently exchanged on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the London
International Petroleum Exchange (IPE), both exchanges are owned by American
corporations. Last fall, Iranian President Ahmedinajad at the OPEC meeting in Saudi Arabia
announced that the U.S. dollar was worthless due to its depreciation and the
losses were being sustained by oil exporters. Ahmedinajad, along with
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, tried to get support at the OPEC meeting for
a proposal that would trade oil in a variety of currencies and replace the
dollar.
In response
to Iran’s impudence, the US has put pressure on European and Asian banks
to isolate Iran by accusing Iran of terrorism and attempting to build a
nuclear weapons program which Iran
vehemently denies. However, the threat Iran
poses to the United States
is not nuclear, it’s economic. According to William Clark, the author of Petrodollar Warfare: Oil, Iraq and the
Future of the Dollar, “the drop in demand for petrodollars would cause the
value of the dollar to plummet further, thereby undermining the U.S.
position as the global economic leader." This past week Iran has officially
divorced itself from the dollar, isn’t it a coincidence that during this same
period there is another aircraft carrier on its way to the Persian
Gulf?
A factor which concerns the
Bush/Cheney administration is that China
is one of Iran’s
biggest trading partners. China’s
dependence on Iran for
energy is similar to the United State’s dependence on Saudi Arabia. If the U.S. were to attack Iran,
it would cause severe strain to American ties with China. This is because China has over $1 trillion in foreign reserves, and
as of November 2006, $700 billion or 36% of that was held in U.S. treasury
securities.
(Remember a few months ago when the Fed loaned $200 billion in U.S. Treasury
securities in exchange for mortgage backed securities that have lost their
value). Joe Biden wasn’t being flippant last summer when he said that China owned the
mortgages on our homes. The U.S.
can’t afford to antagonize China
because economically speaking, China
owns us. We’ll need some kind of pretext to intimidate Iran without provoking China or threatening China’s interests in the region. Hence,
the narrative of the Bush administration about Iran: Iran is determined to
acquire nuclear weapons, Iran is responsible for the deaths of US troops in
Iraq, and Iran is a part of the axis of evil. It’s interesting to note that the
Bush administration has no evidence that Iran’s government is responsible for
the deaths of US troops, in fact, Admiral Mullen, the chairman of the Joints
Chiefs of Staff, confesses that there is, “no smoking gun which could prove
that the highest leadership (in Tehran) is involved.”
So, here we are. The dollar is
weakening, stocks are down, oil is traded at $110 a barrel, and Admiral Fallon,
a critic against a war with Iran,
is retired and General Petraeus has taken his place. Are we headed to war with Iran? Perhaps. We’ve
certainly rattled our sabers in its direction often enough. Including,
presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton who has threatened genocidal retribution
if Iran attacked Israel, despite the fact that Israel is more than capable of
defending itself, despite the fact that by attacking Israel, Iran would also be
responsible for the deaths of their fellow Muslims in Palestine and despite the
fact that in December 2007 the IAEA and the NIE declared that Iran has not been
pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
Saber rattling is not going to convince a nation that is already paranoid that
it is surrounded by enemies to not arm itself to the teeth. It’s time we asked
ourselves, is our economic preeminence really worth the lives that will need to
be sacrificed for it? In the words of John Lennon isn’t it time to “give peace
a chance”? Isn't it time to elect a president who respects all cultures and is willing to engage in diplomacy?