Note: Also posted on http://www.deadparrots.net

After a stunning election yesterday, in which Democrats have taken control of both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, it is worth a look, even this early, to see about how easy or difficult it will be for Democrats to keep up the momentum with the 2008 campaign in the Senate.

Some basic facts:

Republican seats (21)

Alexander, Lamar- (R - TN)

Allard, Wayne- (R - CO)

Chambliss, Saxby- (R - GA)

Cochran, Thad- (R - MS)

Coleman, Norm- (R - MN)

Collins, Susan M.- (R - ME)

Cornyn, John- (R - TX)

Craig, Larry E.- (R - ID)

Dole, Elizabeth- (R - NC)

Domenici, Pete V.- (R - NM)

Enzi, Michael B.- (R - WY)

Graham, Lindsey- (R - SC)

Hagel, Chuck- (R - NE)

Inhofe, James M.- (R - OK)

McConnell, Mitch- (R - KY)

Roberts, Pat- (R - KS)

Sessions, Jeff- (R - AL)

Smith, Gordon H.- (R - OR)

Stevens, Ted- (R - AK)

Sununu, John E.- (R - NH)

Warner, John- (R - VA)

Democratic seats (12 seats)

Baucus, Max- (D - MT)

Biden, Joseph R., Jr.- (D - DE)

Durbin, Richard- (D - IL)

Harkin, Tom- (D - IA)

Johnson, Tim- (D - SD)

Kerry, John F.- (D - MA)

Landrieu, Mary L.- (D - LA)

Lautenberg, Frank R.- (D - NJ)

Levin, Carl- (D - MI)

Pryor, Mark L.- (D - AR)

Reed, Jack- (D - RI)

Rockefeller, John D., IV- (D - WV)

Nine more Republican seats than Democratic ones is a good way to start. But let's go down a step and mark off the ones for each party that look to be sure re-elections:

Favored/easy Republican re-elects (17)

Alexander, Lamar- (R - TN)

Cochran, Thad- (R - MS)

Collins, Susan M.- (R - ME)

Cornyn, John- (R - TX)

Craig, Larry E.- (R - ID)

Dole, Elizabeth- (R - NC)

Domenici, Pete V.- (R - NM)

Enzi, Michael B.- (R - WY)

Graham, Lindsey- (R - SC)

Hagel, Chuck- (R - NE)

Inhofe, James M.- (R - OK)

McConnell, Mitch- (R - KY)

Roberts, Pat- (R - KS)

Sessions, Jeff- (R - AL)

Smith, Gordon H.- (R - OR)

Stevens, Ted- (R - AK)

Warner, John- (R - VA)

Not looking so safe (4):

Allard, Wayne- (R - CO)

Chambliss, Saxby- (R - GA)

Coleman, Norm- (R - MN)

Sununu, John E.- (R - NH)

Favored/easy re-elects Democratic seats (9 seats)

Baucus, Max- (D - MT)

Biden, Joseph R., Jr.- (D - DE)

Durbin, Richard- (D - IL)

Kerry, John F.- (D - MA)

Landrieu, Mary L.- (D - LA) (pushed safe. See Katrina, heckovajob)

Levin, Carl- (D - MI)

Reed, Jack- (D - RI)

Rockefeller, John D., IV- (D - WV)

Not so safe (4):

Harkin, Tom- (D - IA)

Johnson, Tim- (D - SD)

Lautenberg, Frank R.- (D - NJ) (will probably retire, making this an open seat)

Pryor, Mark L.- (D - AR)

Now, there aren't all that many easy cakewalks, and retirements could put some open seats suddenly into play. But most of the Republicans are coming from solid red states, and they will be difficult to take on.

The X-factor comes up as we look deeper. Many of these senators are looking at retirement: Cochran, Stevens, and Warner are probably looking seriously at retirement (with Palin taking the Governorship of Alaska, Stevens might actually follow through early this time). Lautenberg might not even last the year, and Levin is probably eyeing retirement as well. Michigan and New Jersey are both blue states, but look for the GOP to pour a lot of money into the races if they are either open or we have Democratic benchwarmers there.

Summing up:

Early peek battlegound states: Michigan, New Jersey, Virginia, South Dakota.

Dean & Schumer's ability to recruit good candidates was uncanny this past election. It is quite likely that they will be able to run up quality Democrats in every state, giving Democrats a leg up on races considered safe for now. Even moderates like Graham in a red state are likely to get a lot of attention as Democrats, energized from their cornucopia of wins, continue to campaign through the 2008 season.