Obama Super Delegate Appeal


One measure of Obama's appeal to SDs is a comparison of Obama states with limited Clinton SDs, and Clinton states with limited Obama SDs.

Let's look at how this comparison works for the candidates earning either 0 or 1 super delegates in their opponent's states/contests.

For Clinton states:

0 SDs for Obama - 2(AR, GU)
1 SD for Obama - 1 (NY)

For Obama states

0 SDs for Clinton - 8 (MT, SD, WY, NE, ND, ID, IL, MS)
1 SD for Clinton - 9 (UT, AK, NC, OR, KS, ME, CT, VT, DA)

Clinton won 1 delegate or less in 17 Obama states, Obama in only 3 Clinton states. I see that as a pretty powerful metric of super delegate appeal.

And Guam is an anomaly. First, the election is this week, so there is a good are reason for supers to hold up. Second, there are only 5 supers and only 1 has endorsed Clinton. And, of the remaining 4, there are two vacancies.


Learning about Obama


In a recent post, a reader, a Clinton supporter asked the Obama community to help convince him why Obama should be President.

I’ll take that offer.

I have two simple recommendations. Obama has all the makings of a great statesman. So take some time, listen to him, and read what he’s written, and what he has posted on his web site.

Listen to him first. I think the best place to start is his town hall meeting in Parma, Ohio on March 2nd. It was broadcast on C-Span, and you have to go to C-Span to see it. Here’s a link to the Flash video.

http://www.c-spanarchives.org/library/index.php?main_page=product_video_info&products_id=204253-1

I think Obama was in great form at this town hall meeting, speaking for almost 90 minutes, and I recommend starting here because he focuses much more on policy detail than he has in his acceptance speeches where he has been more inspirational.

Next I recommend Obama’s response to the latest State of the Union, where he aggressively goes after the failed policies of the Bush administration. (5 minutes) It shows how effective he will be in the campaign against McCain and Bush.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmNCALGHOC4

And in May of last year, I think he did a good job dealing with a fairly tough grilling by George Stephanopoulos.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCGvv91wEf8&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kuDjbYO1Yg&feature=related

Once you begin to better appreciate what his policy prescriptions are, and the zeal with which he will take on McCain and Bush this fall, it’s a good time to listen to his more inspirational speeches.

The Jefferson Jackson speech in Iowa was terrific.(20 minutes)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tydfsfSQiYc

So was the MLK day speech at King’s church in Atlanta (34 minutes)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kf0x_TpDris

His Potomac primary victory speech was inspiring (26 minutes)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxd8x7UGOuo

As was his victory speech in South Carolina (17 minutes)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iVAPH_EcmQ

As was his spellbinding concession speech in New Hampshire, the speech that inspired the “Yes We Can” video (14 minutes)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3imf9Mvvdg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Qo5ZAyaZk8

And of course you can’t miss the 2004 Democratic Convention speech (20 minutes)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awQkJNVsgKM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aekautDZlRU

There’s plenty more, but that is a great start.

Now on to the reading.

You really should find the time to read the “Audacity of Hope”. (It's in just about every library.) In that book, Obama lays out so much of what his campaign is all about. His issues aren’t new. He has been concerned with the issues he speaks about for years. And his book should be required reading for all who want to understand his quest for the presidency. Once you are finished with that and want to better understand Barack’s early years, especially those as a community organizer, read his first book, “Dreams from My Father”.

Next go to his web site to read his policy plans and positions.

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/

And to understand his legislative record in Congress. Try the following DailyKos diary.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/21/164117/783             

That’s a great start for anyone, and I recommend this to all Hillary supporters who want to learn more about Obama. He is looking more and more like the eventual Democratic candidate. Tonight in Mississippi he picked up 100,000 votes and likely 6 or more delegates. It’s a good time to get to know Obama better.

TPM's criticisms of Obama


I have been a loyal TPM reader for many months now. I read it everyday, checking it frequently. I believe Josh Marshall has put together a site that has been peerless in reporting on Washington events. Rarely have I read anything I thought unnecessary, or biased.

Until this past week.

I have been frustrated with the idea, repeated several times, that Obama is taking a beating, or being bitch-slapped or whatever other pithy phrases have been posted. It’s almost as if there is no campaign on, and Obama’s role and his campaign role is to swat at the pesky flies of the fading Clinton campaign.

I don’t care what Mark Penn says. I don’t care what Clinton says about Obama’s ability to be commander in chief, nor whether she says he’s not ready for the 3:00 am phone call, nor whether she calls for Powers’ resignation, nor whether the Clinton campaign makes the ludicrous claim that Obama won’t take big states like NY or CA in the general because he couldn’t in the primaries, nor whether the Clinton campaign this is up for the super delegates to decide, nor whether the Clintons are telling us how wonderful it would be for Obama to be VP, nor whether the Clinton campaign and the press are making such a foolishly big deal over their 4-delegate win Tuesday, less than Obama picked up in Alaska.

Obama has been busy doing what he needs to do, and does best, building a national campaign that will be victorious in November. He has been campaigning in Mississippi. He found time to create a commercial for Foster. According to Kos, he found time to send hundreds of volunteers to ensure Foster’s victory. When I visit his web site and see all the events being planned for the remaining contests, I recognize just what a juggernaut he continues to build, day-by-day, week-by-week, month-by-month. He is taking his skills as a community organizer and developing a true grassroots nation-wide community organizing behemoth that not only will steamroll hapless republicans this fall, but will be positioned to help him with his difficult legislative agenda including ending the Iraq war, addressing global warming, and providing “national” health care.

Looking towards the future, it is likely, come June 3rd, that he will have won 35 state contests to Hillary’s 17. (Counting PR and DC.) He will have amassed a lead of 170-180 pledged delegates. Also, he will likely be tied or ahead in super delegates, and most important, he will have won the popular vote.

His coat-tails going into November are looking increasinging awe-inspiring. His ability to attract first time voters, independents, and even republicans is truly remarkable. There are a lot of reasons that democrats continue to make record turnouts in primaries and caucuses. But it is undeniable that the  Obama candidacy is a major factor. The democratic success in 2006 is looking more and more like just a warm up to a looming blow-out for democrats in state houses, governships, representatives and senators.

Whatever metric you choose, whether it be new voters, total voters, new contributors or total money raised, Barack Obama is knocking down records. His momentum is unstoppable. Yes Hillary will likely win PA, WV, KY and PR, and maybe squeek out another state or two. She is a tough competitor, and she’s not going to roll over for Obama until there is no hope for her campaign. And she apparently has no compunction about going really negative hoping something might stick.

But Obama has made it clear he is running a different campaign, and his strategy has worked. His campaign is hardly reeling from Hillary’s win in Ohio and Rhode Island. As Kos points out this afternoon, this “week from hell” for Obama has him 15 delegates compared to one week ago. Obama is not suffering. He’s winning, and winning big.

So why must this site paint this ridiculous portrait of an Obama on the ropes, taking blow after blow with no response? TPM is painting a picture of an Obama in free fall, being bitch-slapped by the Clinton campaign. Why are these last gasps of the dying Clinton campaign represented as something Obama has to worry about? Why does he have to prove himself to this site that he will let no slur go unchallenged, or else he paints himself as weak, not in command, unable to assert himself?

Obama’s doing just fine, thank you. If the Clinton campaign wants to wade around in the mud, it’s not slowing him down. He’s picking up another state tomorrow, and another pile of delegates, quite likely more than Clinton won in her all-important firewall contest a week ago. There’s no rush for him to soil himself. There’s going to be plenty of negative campaigning from the republicans, and for now Obama serves himself and the country by avoiding the muck. To many, it makes him appear Presidential.

PatrickBradish

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