Polls just don't make any sense:

Gallup poll: Clinton Gaining nationally.

Rasmussen PA Poll:  Very tight PA race. Clinton looks headed to narrow victory.

Survey USA Indiana: Obama ready to end race with win in IN.

It just confuses me.

As a result of the proportional representation system, Obama is ahead and the likely democratic nominee. Hillary is behind and very unlikely to win over enough superdelegates to be able to win the nomination on the first ballot.

2 Facts:
Obama will not agree to seating Florida or Michigan delegations that advantage Hillary in anyway, because that will hurt his chances and in no way is he obligated to do so.

Hillary will respond to this by fighting all of the way to the convention. It is a disaster but it will be must see TV!! Hillary will not even concede when Obama in June has a majority of the pledged and super delegates, because she will wait for the official convention vote.

Obama will easily get the support of Dean, Gore, Carter, and Pelosi, but that will not be enough either. George Mitchell could still support Clinton.

My advice to Obama, go negative in PA. Go relentlessly negative. Clinton has no ethics. Remind PA voters of all of the ways that she lies. He has to be careful, but he has to disqualify her to prevent this six month trench warfare battle that she and her campaign are better at.

Negative attacks work when they are accurate and important. Choose which lies to discuss and do it in a funny but direct way. Be consistent about it. Be clear that this lack of ethics and integrity is something that the GOP exploited in Gore and Kerry and is the most important chareteristic of electability.