Departing just for a moment from politics, what do you think about this year's nominees and their chances on Oscar night?

In my opinion, this really was one of the best years for films in a very long time.  The only film I saw that didn't get the kind of recognition I thought it deserved for the Oscars was Gran Torino which is a film I consider a sort of masterpiece by Eastwood.  What an amazing piece of work that was!  Despite my disappointment over Gran Torino not being nominated for anything, I'm actually going to watch the Academy Awards program tonight with interest for the first time in a long time because there were so many excellent films and so many truly remarkable performances given.  Anyone care to venture their opinions and/or predictions on the main awards anyway?  I don't have any special knowledge or skill in this area so I don't pretend to know more or better than anyone else, but I'm an avid filmgoer like, I'm sure, many of you are.  Here are my guesses and thoughts:

BEST PICTURE:

Slumdog Millionaire

Despite the very strong field, I'd have to say Slumdog is the most unique and outstanding of them in a year of genuinely masterful movies.  Slumdog overall was so different, so gripping and took the audience on such a wildly unpredictable and unexpected ride that it stands out.  Having said that, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see any of the nominated films win.  IMHO, each is worthy of the award in different ways.  Excellent group of films indeed!

BEST DIRECTOR

David Fincher, Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Boyle is likely to win for Slumdog but after agonizing over it and that's just fine by me because he did a great job, but personally I come down on the side of Fincher, Benjamin Button's Director, as having done the most outstanding job of directing.  It was a difficult story to convey and lengthy too.  If the direction were not as superb as it was, the picture would not have worked.  Again, all nominated seem deserving to me, but this is my preference.

BEST ACTOR

Sean Penn

This is another close call but I come down with Penn because the role is so different in that Penn had to convey this man who was very "out of the ordinary" in so many different ways without being cartoonish or slipping into caricature.  Penn's portrayal was not only believable, he became the character in every way and captured that elusive character and spirit of a person that separates a good performance from something extraordinary.  The portrayal of Harvey Milk was honest, sympathetic  and real.  Penn, it seems to me, may well be the best actor of his generation.  I don't feel this is a slam dunk at all though and there's no potential result would be terribly surprising given the high quality of each performance.

BEST ACTRESS

Kate Winslet

Definitely one of the toughest categories to choose from in a year when there are many such categories.  I go with Kate Winslet because it was just a tour de force on her part.  She is an incredibly gifted performer.  Meryl Streep whose ability is just amazing showed again that there seems no limit to her depth and skill in conveying a character and all the compicated facets of a a human being.  But, by a hair, I say Winslet.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Phillip Seymour Hoffman

I know Heath Ledger will probably win for what was, admittedly, an outstanding performnce, but I personally come down for Hoffman whose subtle perforance was powerful, intense, masterful, and demonstrated his amazing range of ability in a very difficult role.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Marisa Tomei

I have to say that all the actresses in this category deserve this award.  It was hard for me to choose especially between Tomei, Taraji Henson, and Amy Adams all of whom are more than deserving of this award.  Adams was astounding and I really thought that Henson was the brightest light among many in Benjamin Button.  In The Wrester, when Tomei was "performing" for the last time, the expressions on her face which amounted to an unspoken conversation about her character's life that took place on the screen did it for me.  It was just a devastating and moving performance.  Another categoy I'd be happy to see any of the nominees win, but I just come donw for Tomei in the end.

So that's my take on the biggest categories.  Anyone else care to share their assessments?  Add to the catgories if you wish.  Enjoy!