Obama's 28 Percent Problem
There has been much discussion about the recent polls suggesting that 28 percent of Clinton supporters would vote for McCain. Many in the Obama camp see this as an outgrowth of Clinton’s negative campaign - proof that she’s willing to bring the whole house down if she doesn’t get her way. Another variant on this theme is that Hillary herself led the way with her Commander in Chief comments.
Granted, there must be some Clinton supporters who, in a fit pique, say they’d take McCain, but that’s not nearly enough to account for such a high number. I have an alternative explanation and it exposes a weakness in Obama’s campaign: the so-called “Reagan Democrats.”
These are the voters who accounted for Hillary’s margin in Ohio and seem likely to do the same in Pennsylvania. They are centrist, but not motivated by ideology. They’re not troubled that McCain will appoint “strict constructionist” Justices to the Supreme Court. They may have supported the war at first, but they believe Bush lied and mishandled it. They don’t associate McCain - with his reputation (deserved or not) - with the pre-war dishonesty or post-war bungling. They just want to see it turned around. They are troubled by the economic uncertainty, but again, don’t pin that on McCain.
Demographically, they are probably older, blue collar types. They see the Clinton administration as competent and responsive. They are not as disturbed as the liberal wing of the party by Hillary’s vote authorizing the war or her more hawkish foreign policy. They see Hillary as a hard worker who gets things done. They credit her experience (yes, that’s loaded, I admit) on the national stage and are more inclined to favor someone who they see as having paid her dues.
Many of these voters resent Obama’s meteoric rise. The huge rallies and fervor among his supporters only add to the mistrust. They do not respond to his rhetoric about coming together and changing the way politics is practices - focusing more on bread and butter issues. They are skeptical of his candidacy - associating it with the liberal urban elites and African Americans.
Obama has plenty of time to change the perception. But his seeming inability to connect with these voters, whom I believe make up a good part of that 28%, has to be troubling to those of us who do care about the issues that will be at stake in this election come November.
Granted, there must be some Clinton supporters who, in a fit pique, say they’d take McCain, but that’s not nearly enough to account for such a high number. I have an alternative explanation and it exposes a weakness in Obama’s campaign: the so-called “Reagan Democrats.”
These are the voters who accounted for Hillary’s margin in Ohio and seem likely to do the same in Pennsylvania. They are centrist, but not motivated by ideology. They’re not troubled that McCain will appoint “strict constructionist” Justices to the Supreme Court. They may have supported the war at first, but they believe Bush lied and mishandled it. They don’t associate McCain - with his reputation (deserved or not) - with the pre-war dishonesty or post-war bungling. They just want to see it turned around. They are troubled by the economic uncertainty, but again, don’t pin that on McCain.
Demographically, they are probably older, blue collar types. They see the Clinton administration as competent and responsive. They are not as disturbed as the liberal wing of the party by Hillary’s vote authorizing the war or her more hawkish foreign policy. They see Hillary as a hard worker who gets things done. They credit her experience (yes, that’s loaded, I admit) on the national stage and are more inclined to favor someone who they see as having paid her dues.
Many of these voters resent Obama’s meteoric rise. The huge rallies and fervor among his supporters only add to the mistrust. They do not respond to his rhetoric about coming together and changing the way politics is practices - focusing more on bread and butter issues. They are skeptical of his candidacy - associating it with the liberal urban elites and African Americans.
Obama has plenty of time to change the perception. But his seeming inability to connect with these voters, whom I believe make up a good part of that 28%, has to be troubling to those of us who do care about the issues that will be at stake in this election come November.
