Jindal Versus the Volcano
Gov. Bobby Jindal's call out of volcanic monitoring programs as wasteful governmental spending during the Republican Response to President Obama's address last night is either cynically provincial, dangerously uninformed, or extremely partisan. I suspect a combination of all three.
The value of volcanic monitoring, in terms of saved lives and property, was clearly demonstrated during the June 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines. According to a 1997 US Geological Survey Report:
The monitoring of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and the successful forecasting of its cataclysmic June 15 eruption prevented property losses of at least $250 million (this figure is intentionally conservative and should be considered a minimum value). No monetary value has been placed on the more than 5,000 lives saved, although other cost-benefit analyses have used values from $100,000 to $1 million per life.
The estimated cost of the monitoring program was $1.5 million.
I should note that the USGS is part of the Department of the Interior, an Executive Branch Agency that was under the administrative control of the first Bush administration in June 1991.
The potential argument that volcanic monitoring has no relevance when it comes to saving American lives and property is baseless. In the case of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption outside of Manila, the warnings provided allowed for the safe evacuation of 15,000 servicemen and women (and families) from nearby Clark Air Force Base.
Closer to home, the USGS is closely monitoring of the active Redoubt volcano in Alaska, which they predict will erupt within the next days or weeks. The scale of the monitoring program at Redoubt was significantly increased in the aftermath of the volcano's last major eruption in 1989-90 (again, during the first Bush administration). This previous eruption caused economic losses estimated at more than $160 million, and sent a cloud of ash into the sky that caused engine failures aboard a Boeing 747-200 with 231 passengers on board, flying north of Anchorage (aircraft engines tolerate volcanic ash about as well as they tolerate birds). Ash alerts issued by the USGS since that last eruption have been subsequently used to shut down or redirect air traffic into and out of the Ted Stevens International Airport in Anchorage.
The potential loss of American lives and property is far greater when Cascade Range volcanoes are considered in the Pacific Northwest...hundreds of thousands of people live within the shadow of these currently dormant volcanoes.
The ability to predict not only the timing of a volcanic eruption, but the magnitude of each eruption is nowhere near perfect. Continued funding of USGS efforts to not only monitor active volcanic risks, but to evaluate and refine predictive eruption models is critical for anyone who is interesting in reducing the risk of loss of life and property. It is not unlike ongoing governmental efforts to understand hurricanes, and to accurately predict where they will hit land, and how hard.
Would the Governor of Louisiana have called-out of volcanic monitoring as wasteful governmental spending if New Orleans were closer to Mount St. Helens than the Gulf of Mexico? And does Governor Palin similarly think that spending governmental money to develop better hurricane tracking models would be just as wasteful?










