tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/nommedeguerre//4392 2008-10-03T03:04:01Z Movable Type Pro 4.21-en tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk//17.221602 2008-10-03T03:04:01Z 2008-10-03T03:04:01Z

"One of the strategic decisions our campaign has made is to let Mr. Obama spend his resources there until the point where we got closer to the election... I believe that in every one of those [swing states] they will...

Nommedeguerre

This quote from the McCain camp is obviously an attempt to make the best of a bad situation, they underestimated Obama's ability to play in the red states such as Indiana and NC.  I also however believe that they do to a certain extent believe that with a little bit of advertising they can take the lead back in these states because of historic trends. 

The psychological miscalculation they are making is that they are failing to recognise one of the strange quirks of the human psyche.  This little quirk is what makes human beings so unpredictable and allows for such rapid development of ideas and technology.

It has time and again been responsible for rapid ideological and technological advances across the globe, it is something that is feared by authoritarian regimes across the globe,  it is also something that makes us ever more dependent on the new technologies that we develop and ever more open to the new possibilities that these technologies provide.

This little human quirk is the reason why John McCain is going to lose this election. It is also the reason why while Obama maybe wins because of how bad things are, the effect of his winning the presidency will be far greater than most people can even imagine at the moment.  

Quite simply this little human quirk will mean that however Obama performs as president he will be a catalyst for a new era in American politics. A catalyst where presedential candidates no longer need to come from central casting.

The quirk I am speaking about is the barriers the mind sets up, barriers that seem strong and unbreachable yet it does not take much of a crack in that barrier to bring the whole edifice crashing down.

The barrier that has been breached here is that for the first time in a generation many people in these deep red states have begun to consider voting for a democrat and taken an even larger step in considering voting for a black man for president, once they have accepted the possibility of their voting for a Barack Obama and convinced themselves that there are good reasons to do so, especially if those reasons are about self interest. 

Even if they are not totally comfortable with the idea, it is very hard to put that genie back in the bottle. 

Quite simply the fact that many of them have and are now seriously considered voting for Obama this close to the election means that McCain is going to have to come up with a very good argument for them to go back and if he makes that argument about Obama's character rather than the voters self interest, he will lose. 

The voters have mostly made their judgements on Obama's character and he has not been found wanting.  What remains to be discovered is whether McCain can make them doubt his ability to deliver in their self interest.]]>