Forget Obama as Vice-President-- the real conventional wisdom is that Hillary Clinton wouldn't take the VP slot. But the most obvious analogy to this year's campaign is the "inexperienced" JFK beating out the experienced Lyndon Johnson in the 1960 primaries. The view then was that LBJ wouldn't take the VP slot, but he did. And exactly for the reason that it put him so close to the Presidency that any slip of fate would land him with the top job.

As the Elliot Spitzer debacle underlines, top executives do end up in trouble far more often than people expect. For Clinton, the reality is that she won't increase her likelihood of getting to the Presidency if she waits it out in the Senate. So the "LBJ scenario" for Clinton is unfortunately her most likely path to the Presidency, a ghoulish reality, but then the VP job description is all about being prepared for ghoulish circumstances.