tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/nkaskas//14099 2009-06-07T06:12:27Z Movable Type Pro 4.21-en tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/nkaskas//14099.273915 2009-06-07T00:49:24Z 2009-06-07T06:12:27Z

Today, the 7th of June, is a groundbreaking day for Lebanon's future, as it marks the date of the parliamentary election that occurs once every four years. This election has polarized the country and energized many people who have never...

Nadine Kaskas
We live in America and although we have kept in touch with our roots and visited often, we have not returned to Lebanon since we were caught in the summer war of 2006. This year we have returned in order to vote in what many people are calling one of the most important elections in our country's history (well, I should clarify that only my parents are able to vote, as voting age is twenty-one here--and how it burns that I am just one year too young!!).

Perhaps it is fitting that here in Lebanon, where the east meets the west, where you can find a six million dollar flat next to a bombed-out building, where the old is so intricately laced with the new, you will find such radically mixed views about the upcoming election. There are people so scared that they have been flooding the supermarkets and souks and stocking up on essentials such as water and bread, too scared to go to the polls, and warning everyone not to go vote and risk any violence that may break out.

On the other hand, there are also people who are rambunctiously outspoken in their views: holding loud motorcade parades in a festival-like atmosphere, taping political flags to every visible surface of their cars, draping themselves on top of cars and hanging outside of windows while flying through the streets and shouting their slogans at the top of their lungs.

There have been 60,000 soldiers and police deployed to patrol the streets all over the country-- just a few hours earlier I saw six military tanks, full of soldiers, climbing up the narrow mountain road next to our house-- to serve as a deterrence to any potential conflict. It has also been reported that all public agencies and many stores will even close the day of the election and the day after.

At this point I'm sure some background on the situation would be very much appreciated for those unfamiliar with Lebanon's confusing political infrastructure. The election tomorrow is for 128 seats, which are divided up into all sixteen religious sects found in Lebanon. There is a 50/50 representation in Parliament for Christians and Muslims. The party who has the majority of seats in the Parliament will be able to choose the new Prime Minister and the majority of Cabinet positions.

This election would put Lebanon in the hands of either of two camps: the US-backed March 14th coalition, a pro-democracy organization which favors a peaceful resolution to the Middle East's ongoing conflicts, versus the March 8th coalition which favors alliances with Syria and Iran and open-ended conflict with Israel. The March 14th forces include the Mustaqbal movement headed by Saad Hariri, the son of the assassinated Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, representing the majority of the Sunni Muslims; the Phalangists; the Lebanese Forces (Maronite Christians); and the Progressive Socialists (Druze Muslims).

The March 8th movement is composed of the Hizbollah party and Amal party, representing the majority of the Shiite Muslims, and the Tayyar al-Horr party, headed by General Michel Aoun (Maronite Christians).

To clarify, March 8th, 2005 represents the day that these parties held a rally supporting the military presence of Syria inside of Lebanon while March 14th, 2005 represents the day of the "Cedar Revolution," in which people protested the Syrian occupation and demanded their withdrawal, accusing the Syrian regime of assassinating the former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri on February 14th, 2005.

Both camps are predicting that their camps will win, and the polls are confusing. The March 8th followers have claimed that the other coalition will drown the country in more debt, accusing them of corruption, and calling them a proxy for the west, while the March 14th followers argue that the other camp will force the country into a dictatorship and into   becoming a proxy for Iran and Syria.

There are three international agencies that are monitoring the election to ensure a fair process, including former President Jimmy Carter's foundation, the EU council, and the Arab League Council. Because the Sunnis are mostly solidly for the March 14th movement and the Shiites are primarily for the March 8th forces, the observers are predicting that it will come down to the Christian vote as the Christians are evenly split between the two camps (Lebanon has the unique position of being composed of roughly 33% Sunni Muslims, 33% Shiite Muslims, and 33% Christians).

From a personal viewpoint, I am proud of my family's unwavering commitment to the power of democracy in coming to vote for the first time in this momentous election. While I am certainly apprehensive about the outcome of the election and potential fall out, I can say without hesitation that the Lebanese people are strong and will bounce back from whatever happens today and in the days to come. ]]>