Zelaya To Be Reinstated...Maybe...Kind Of
Point 9 means that the Supreme Court and the Congress must agree to the accord. As I understand it, since the Supreme Court has already ruled that it would not accept Zelaya's restitution, the SC will now only decide if Congress can ratify the accord. What are the chances of the Honduran congress agreeing to reinstate Zelaya? I think it is good, perhaps over 50%. According the the election polls, National Party candidate Pepe Lobos is leading Liberal Party candidate Elvin Santos by a significant margin. While the Liberal Party is the majority party in Congress, the National Party is a significant minority. If congress rejects reinstating Zelaya, the accord fails, and the election will not be recognized by the international community, including (maybe) the US. Additionally, Zelaya is also supported by a minority of Liberal Party congress members - 25 or 30. That doesn't leave that many votes to reject the accord. We shall see - the vote could take place today.1- La creación de un gobierno de unidad y reconciliación nacional.
The creation of a national reconciliation and unity government.
2- Rechazo a la amnistía delitos políticos, y demoratoria de acciones procesos penales.
Rejection of an amnesty for political crimes, and delay for penal processes.
3- Renunciar a una convocatoria a una Asamblea Nacional Constituyente o a reformar la Constitución en los artículos constitucionales irreformables.
Reject the convocation of a National Constitutional Assembly or reform of the unreformable constitutional articles.
4. Reconocer y apoyar las elecciones generales y el traspaso de Gobierno.
Recognize and support the general elections and the transfer of Government.
5- La transferencia de autoridad sobre las Fuerzas Armadas al Tribunal Supremo Electoral.
Transfer of authority over the Armed Forces to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal.
6- La creación de una comisión de verificación para hacer cumplir los puntos del acuerdo.
Creation of a commission of verification to ensure compliance with the points of the accord.
7- La formación de una comisión de la verdad para investigar los sucesos antes, durante y después del 28 de junio de 2009.
The formation of a truth commission to investigate the events before, during, and after June 28, 2009.
8- Solicitar a la comunidad internacional la normalización de las relaciones internacionales con nuestro país.
9. Apoyar una propuesta que permite un voto en el Congreso Nacional con una previa opinión de la Corte Suprema de Justicia para retrotraer todo el Poder Ejecutivo previo al 28 de junio.Request from the international community normalization of international relations with our country.
Support the proposal that permits a vote in the National Congress with previous judgment from the Supreme Court to make the Executive Power retroactive to before June 28.
Point 2 is interesting, since both factions could face legal procedings in the future. I think Zelaya agreed to this because he is confident that the charges against him won't stand up to litigation. But this issue will be clearer when the final accord documents are released.
Finally, the "people" don't benefit all that well by this accord, since their interest in for a new constitution is thwarted. But note that Juan Barahona, a leader from the Resistance Front, was originally part of Zelaya's negotiation team, but withdrew two weeks ago when the issue of the stopping actions for a constituent assembly was put on the table. As the Resistance Front explained, Barahona's withdrawal was specifically aimed at keeping the constitutional assembly open for the Resistance Front, and it was not an indication of the Front's not supporting Zelaya.
















Thank you for the extra seven points, Boho. All I read this morning was that Clinton had announced that both sides had agreed on a vote soon.
October 30, 2009 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I actually read this late last night, but the reports were so brief and sketchy that I thought I would wait for something solid. Now a pdf of the actual signed accord is available here in Spanish:
http://quotha.net/node/517
October 31, 2009 1:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well my experience is that certain provisions of any constitution vary in their meanings depending o the interpreter. Scalia and I have little in common with regard to perspective, lets say.
This agreement looks promising to me.
Thank you Neo.
October 30, 2009 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't underrate the coup folks the ability to talk out of both sides of their mouth. Check out the link below in my reply to Miguelito.
October 31, 2009 1:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
"The formation of a truth commission to investigate the events before, during, and after June 28, 2009."
And when do we get our own Truth Commission?
October 30, 2009 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Diachronic, I've looked at GOP material, but I cannot locate anything resembling truth to commission. At best we could compile a book of unclever aphorisms.
October 31, 2009 1:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds like the parties are lining up to dance at least. I'll be interested to see how this plays out.
October 31, 2009 12:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
You might not have to wait long, Miguelito - check this out:
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2009/10/200910313171313971.html
This is the same Congress that had no trouble meeting on June 28, a Sunday, in order to figure out how the coup could be legal.
October 31, 2009 1:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
October 31, 2009 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Miami Herald has a good piece on the U.S. involvment just out, along with bullet points/summary on the agreement
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/americas/story/1309102.html
October 31, 2009 2:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Meanwhile, a short hop across the Caribbean (and where you can maybe see Hugo's house from your window :-))
October 31, 2009 3:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I can see Mexico from my window - I'm not kidding. But my take on your link is that the US is interested in FARC insofar as FARCs role in the Drug Trafficking operation goes. This applies to Honduras also. Honduras was already growing in importance to the DTOs - both South American and Mexican - and since the coup d'etat the DTOs have practically invaded Honduras because the military and national police are busy "elsewhere." And Guatemala seems to have become the major transshipment center for illegal arms and ordinance, most of it filched from legal amories in Central and South America. U.S. military arms.
Arms and Drugs, ain't that lovely? Gotta go - I'm going to fire up my Crack Pipe and think about this.
October 31, 2009 3:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
going to fire up my Crack Pipe and think about this.
you so funny
anyhoo, I was just struck why the pact has to be so top secret. CSM suggests that Hugo thinks they really are there to watch his house (everything is always about him, after all, :-)) and that Brazil and Chile "expressed concern." Also made me think conspiratorially, that the Honduran circus makes such a convenient distraction for other, er, parties, to get busy doing stuff they want to do with little attention being paid. Yes of course it has to do with drug trafficking, which by its very nature has to do with a lot of other things...
October 31, 2009 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hahaha..."the firebrand leftist." Honestly, AA, ... oh, well. The Wall Street Journal is spinning the story as Honduras punking Hillary. There's no end to spin. Diachronic is correct, we need a Truth Commission.
October 31, 2009 3:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Transcript of State Dept. Oct. 30 press briefing "Recent Developments in Honduras" with Asst. Sec. Shannon:
http://www.state.gov/p/wha/rls/rm/2009/131201.htm
Clinton's Oct. 30 statement on Honduras from Islamabad:
http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2009a/10/131078.htm
November 2, 2009 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink