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Zelaya To Be Reinstated...Maybe...Kind Of


Both factions have signed the accord to end the political standoff in Honduras.  We only have sketchy information so far, but La Prensa has published a tentative list of points - thanks to Greg Weeks for the translation:

1- La creación de un gobierno de unidad y reconciliación nacional.

The creation of a national reconciliation and unity government.

2- Rechazo a la amnistía delitos políticos, y demoratoria de acciones procesos penales.

Rejection of an amnesty for political crimes, and delay for penal processes.

3- Renunciar a una convocatoria a una Asamblea Nacional Constituyente o a reformar la Constitución en los artículos constitucionales irreformables.

Reject the convocation of a National Constitutional Assembly or reform of the unreformable constitutional articles.

4. Reconocer y apoyar las elecciones generales y el traspaso de Gobierno.

Recognize and support the general elections and the transfer of Government.

5- La transferencia de autoridad sobre las Fuerzas Armadas al Tribunal Supremo Electoral.

Transfer of authority over the Armed Forces to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal.

6- La creación de una comisión de verificación para hacer cumplir los puntos del acuerdo.

Creation of a commission of verification to ensure compliance with the points of the accord.

7- La formación de una comisión de la verdad para investigar los sucesos antes, durante y después del 28 de junio de 2009.

The formation of a truth commission to investigate the events before, during, and after June 28, 2009.

8- Solicitar a la comunidad internacional la normalización de las relaciones internacionales con nuestro país.

Request from the international community normalization of international relations with our country.

9. Apoyar una propuesta que permite un voto en el Congreso Nacional con una previa opinión de la Corte Suprema de Justicia para retrotraer todo el Poder Ejecutivo previo al 28 de junio.

Support the proposal that permits a vote in the National Congress with previous judgment from the Supreme Court to make the Executive Power retroactive to before June 28.
Point 9 means that the Supreme Court and the Congress must agree to the accord.  As I understand it, since the Supreme Court has already ruled that it would not accept Zelaya's restitution, the SC will now only decide if Congress can ratify the accord.  What are the chances of the Honduran congress agreeing to reinstate Zelaya?  I think it is good, perhaps over 50%.  According the the election polls, National Party candidate Pepe Lobos is leading Liberal Party candidate Elvin Santos by a significant margin.  While the Liberal Party is the majority party in Congress, the National Party is a significant minority.  If congress rejects reinstating Zelaya, the accord fails, and the election will not be recognized by the international community, including (maybe) the US.  Additionally, Zelaya is also supported by a minority of Liberal Party congress members - 25 or 30.  That doesn't leave that many votes to reject the accord.  We shall see - the vote could take place today.

Point 2 is interesting, since both factions could face legal procedings in the future.  I think Zelaya agreed to this because he is confident that the charges against him won't stand up to litigation.  But this issue will be clearer when the final accord documents are released.

Finally, the "people" don't benefit all that well by this accord, since their interest in for a new constitution is thwarted. But note that Juan Barahona, a leader from the Resistance Front, was originally part of Zelaya's negotiation team, but withdrew two weeks ago when the issue of the stopping actions for a constituent assembly was put on the table.  As the Resistance Front explained, Barahona's withdrawal was specifically aimed at keeping the constitutional assembly open for the Resistance Front, and it was not an indication of the Front's not supporting Zelaya. 

15 Comments

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Thank you for the extra seven points, Boho. All I read this morning was that Clinton had announced that both sides had agreed on a vote soon.

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I actually read this late last night, but the reports were so brief and sketchy that I thought I would wait for something solid. Now a pdf of the actual signed accord is available here in Spanish:

http://quotha.net/node/517

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Well my experience is that certain provisions of any constitution vary in their meanings depending o the interpreter. Scalia and I have little in common with regard to perspective, lets say.

This agreement looks promising to me.

Thank you Neo.

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Don't underrate the coup folks the ability to talk out of both sides of their mouth. Check out the link below in my reply to Miguelito.

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"The formation of a truth commission to investigate the events before, during, and after June 28, 2009."

And when do we get our own Truth Commission?

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Diachronic, I've looked at GOP material, but I cannot locate anything resembling truth to commission. At best we could compile a book of unclever aphorisms.

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Sounds like the parties are lining up to dance at least. I'll be interested to see how this plays out.

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You might not have to wait long, Miguelito - check this out:

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2009/10/200910313171313971.html

This is the same Congress that had no trouble meeting on June 28, a Sunday, in order to figure out how the coup could be legal.

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"The congress is not in session, and I understand that it is programmed to return after the elections, because each one of the representatives is, at this very moment, in their respective districts campaigning around the clock,"
LOL. The Honduran pols sound as disingenuous as our own.
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The Miami Herald has a good piece on the U.S. involvment just out, along with bullet points/summary on the agreement

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/americas/story/1309102.html

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Meanwhile, a short hop across the Caribbean (and where you can maybe see Hugo's house from your window :-))

US and Colombia sign accord for US to access military bases

By Sibylla Brodzinsky | The Christian Science Monitor

October 30, 2009 edition

Bogotá, Colombia - Colombia signed a controversial military cooperation pact with the United States Friday that will expand US access to Colombian military bases to conduct operations aimed at combating drug trafficking and leftist rebels.

The agreement – whose text has not been made public – has raised concerns around Latin America of an increased US presence in the region...

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Hey, I can see Mexico from my window - I'm not kidding. But my take on your link is that the US is interested in FARC insofar as FARCs role in the Drug Trafficking operation goes. This applies to Honduras also. Honduras was already growing in importance to the DTOs - both South American and Mexican - and since the coup d'etat the DTOs have practically invaded Honduras because the military and national police are busy "elsewhere." And Guatemala seems to have become the major transshipment center for illegal arms and ordinance, most of it filched from legal amories in Central and South America. U.S. military arms.

Arms and Drugs, ain't that lovely? Gotta go - I'm going to fire up my Crack Pipe and think about this.

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going to fire up my Crack Pipe and think about this.

you so funny

anyhoo, I was just struck why the pact has to be so top secret. CSM suggests that Hugo thinks they really are there to watch his house (everything is always about him, after all, :-)) and that Brazil and Chile "expressed concern." Also made me think conspiratorially, that the Honduran circus makes such a convenient distraction for other, er, parties, to get busy doing stuff they want to do with little attention being paid. Yes of course it has to do with drug trafficking, which by its very nature has to do with a lot of other things...

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Hahaha..."the firebrand leftist." Honestly, AA, ... oh, well. The Wall Street Journal is spinning the story as Honduras punking Hillary. There's no end to spin. Diachronic is correct, we need a Truth Commission.

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Transcript of State Dept. Oct. 30 press briefing "Recent Developments in Honduras" with Asst. Sec. Shannon:

http://www.state.gov/p/wha/rls/rm/2009/131201.htm

Clinton's Oct. 30 statement on Honduras from Islamabad:

http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2009a/10/131078.htm

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