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New Political Poll Numbers From Honduras


A very reputable poll, excellent methodology and a good sample.

Are you in favor of the June 28 coup d'etat against President Manuel Zelaya Rosales?

In favor of coup: 17.4 percent

Opposed to coup: 52.7 percent

No response: 29.9 percent


Should Micheletti stay in power or leave the current government?

Micheletti should stay: 22.2 percent

Micheletti should leave: 60.1 percent

No response: 17.7 percent


Do you support the return of Manuel Zelaya Rosales to the Presidency of the Republic?

Support Zelaya's return: 51.6 percent

Oppose Zelaya's return: 33 percent

No response: 15.4 percent


Do you agree or disagree with the marches by the national resistance throughout the country against the coup d'etat?

Support the marches: 45.5 percent

Oppose the marches: 41.8 percent

No response: 12.7 percent


Do you think that the Armed Forces and National Police are engaging in repression or not against the National Resistance?

Yes, there is repression: 54.5 percent

No, there is not repression: 21.8 percent

No response: 23.7 percent


Do you agree with the repression or condemn the repression that the Armed Forces and National Police have engaged in against the National Resistance?

Against repression: 65.4 percent

For repression: 8 percent

No response: 26.4 percent


Should the general elections organized by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal for November 19 happen even if the institutional crisis isn't resolved?

Yes, have elections: 66.4 percent

No, don't have them: 23.8 percent

No response: 2.9 percent

There are more questions at the link.  There is also an unverified poll that asked the question about the 4th Ballot (to convene a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution) with 72% polling "yes."  I'm waiting for something solid on this.


7 Comments

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You'd have to think that there is some disconnect between the numbers in these questions:

Should Micheletti go?

Should Zelaya stay?

It seems like that poll done awhile back that showed something like 76% of americans thought the US spent too much on foreign aid; 64% thought it should be reduced.
I'm making up the numbers, but you get my drift...

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Yes, I can see your drift. Giordano advances two theories about the number of "no response" answers - one is fear of the authorities, and the other is political malaise. But I think the difference you refer to may reflect an opinion that Michelleti should go, and be replaced by someone other than Zelaya. I'm just guessing - but I think it would be more questionable if the two numbers were perfectly reciprocal.

What I thought interesting about this poll is the comments made by our Republicans who went down there on "fact finding" missions. The returned and said they had discovered that hardly any Hondurans supported Zelaya. I think one said - it might have been DeMint, that 90% of Hondurans supported Michelleti's government.

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Wouldn't it make more sense to pressure Micheletti to allow a multitude of observers at the polls on November 19, instead of trying for restoration of Zelaya, which ain't about to happen?

Zelaya's term was almost over, and if the next elections are reasonably transparent, then none of it really mattered.

And even if Zelaya is permanently exiled from Honduras, he can console himself with the same consolation once expressed by that famous Shoshone heroine, Sacagawea...

"I will miss all of you," Sacagawea said, "but I have yet to see the Big Water."

Harharharhar!!!

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My understanding is that the election will be monitored anyway, according to the plan. That's not the issue: OAS and others have stated that conditions don't exist "now" for a legitmate election. I take that to mean the conduct of the political campaigns themselves. And that reading was made even before Michelleti issued his draconian decree last week, during which all the media establishments (newspapers excepted) that are liberal and likely to give voice to the minority political parties have been silenced. What's left are the radio and TV channels owned by the backers of the Liberal and National Party.

Monday Michelleti said he would lift the decreel, and it has not been lifted yet. The claim is that the printing press which publishes the Honduran version of the "Congressional Record" is broken. So the repression continues - quite illegally I might add because the decree itself was never ratified by congress, which is required by the constitution. They won't return the confiscated broadcast equipment to Radio Globo or Channel 36 - telling both companies they have to sue in court to get their property back. In a separate action, they pulled Radio Globo's broadcast license. And they are still bashing in the heads of citizens participating in political rallies they don't like.

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Leader Ousted, Honduras Hires U.S. Lobbyists

By GINGER THOMPSON and RON NIXON

The campaign has forced the administration to send mixed signals about the de facto government.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/08/world/americas/08honduras.html

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Yes, the Times seems to be competing with the Onion in the sardonic humor department on their Honduras coverage. But there you go - that's one entity that may be under the influence of the PR firms, whose function it is to fictionalize the events on the ground down there.

You want to read a real kicker, AA? You know who Adolfo Facusse is, right? The coup leader businessman who got his visa pulled by State and was arrested at the Miami airport and deported back to Honduras. In an interview the other day he was trying to steal Zelaya's thunder with his claim that it was he who made the move to join ALBA and get the benefits of the Petrocaribe deal. No wonder that Michelleti and the majority of congress embraced ALBA and the oil deal. It had the Facusse stamp of approval on it. But, noooo, Lanny Davis tells us differently - Zelaya is a Chavista for signing on the ALBA and making the Petrocaribe deal. So who's buying it? MSM, it seems, and uncritical consumers - the the Republican opposition to Zelaya didn't come from the PR firms, it came from Otto Reich, Carmona-Borjas, and a bunch of other shady characters who were on the ground floor of the coup planning sessions.

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Yeah, what do the Hondurans want. Interesting figures.

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