An Unfolding Mystery in Honduras
First off, the negotiations between the Zelaya faction and Michelleti faction once again failed at the end of last week. Charges of intransigents have been flowing both directions, but opinion on this outside Honduras points to Michelleti, who refuses to consider the reinstatement of Zalaya. Michelleti's last offers brought in numerous conditions that were far beyond the scope of the San José Accord, and were rejected on that basis.
Last Sunday, however, President Zelaya releases a very upbeat message that an agreement would soon be reached on settling the country's political crises.
"I cannot give details of how this will be achieved, but Honduras cannot remain in this situation," Zelaya told the local broadcasting station Radio Globo.That cast the mystery for me: what had happened between the doom and gloom of Friday's announcement that 14 days of negotiations had failed?
My guess is the story in yesterday's NYT: U.S. Sending Envoys to Try to End Crisis in Honduras.
This will be the first time since the coup that the Obama administration has taken a leading role in pressuring the leaders of the de facto government to restore democratic order in Honduras. The stepped-up pressure comes after months of apparently fruitless talks about whether Mr. Zelaya will be returned to power.
That strikes me as significent. Remember, the position of the Obama Administration has been until now to support the OAS role in resolving the crisis, beyond the visa sanctions (which, incidentally, culminated with the suspension of visas for over 600 Hondurans who are associated with the coup d'etat) . Now we have some direct intervention.
The new effort began on Friday, officials said, when Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton made calls to both Mr. Zelaya and the head of the de facto government, Roberto Micheletti.
In those calls, officials said, Mrs. Clinton told the two leaders that there was "increasing frustration" in the United States and Latin America over the deteriorating situation in Honduras, the hemisphere's third-poorest country. She reserved her toughest comments for Mr. Micheletti, officials said, because the United States believes he has been "the most difficult."
"During the call, he spent a lot of time talking about the past," a State Department official said. "She wanted to talk about the future."
Among other things, Mr. Micheletti has refused to accept any political deal that would allow Mr. Zelaya to return to power. He has demanded that the international community declare Mr. Zelaya's ouster a legal transition of power. And, with the help of lobbyists in Washington, he has tried to pressure the United States to agree to recognize the outcome of presidential elections scheduled for next month.
Most Latin American countries have said that they would not recognize the elections unless Mr. Zelaya, who is holed up in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa, is first restored to power. The United States has threatened to do the same.
A senior administration official said Mrs. Clinton spoke to Mr. Micheletti on Friday for more than half an hour.
"The purpose was to remind him there were two pathways to the elections," the official said, "one where Honduras goes by itself and the other where it goes with broad support from the international community."
My sneaking suspicion is that this is the source of Zelaya's upbeat optimism that the crisis will be settled this week. However, Zelaya's "certainty" must derive from his conversation with Secretary Clinton - namely she gave him information about the leverage the U.S. negotiation team will use in Tegucigalpa this week. The team leader is Assistant Secretary of State Thomas A. Shannon - whose confirmation as United States Ambassador to Brazil has been blocked in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee by Jim Demento, er, Demint.
I can't see much mystery in any of this.
It's nonsense that either the OAS or US won't recognize the results of the next election in Honduras in a month , unless there's massive evidence of fraud, and then...
Zelaya will vanish like so many other unsuccessful wannabee dictators have vanished before him, with the salient difference that Micheletti and friends didn't shoot him.
October 27, 2009 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, heck, Roots, tell me why Mel was so upbeat and certain he was going to be reinstated this week then. I'll accept the credence of your powers of divination, honest.
As for the election - the EU, OAS and Carter Center have withdrawn their offer to monitor the elections. I guess a lot of governments out there in the world just refuse to recognize an election held under the auspices of an pirate government. Sorry you think it's nonsense.
October 27, 2009 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Every time the psycho Zelaya makes funny faces, neoboho sees a mystery.
"Why is he making those funny faces? He seems upbeat! Call the Ghost-Busters!"
Harharharhar!!!
And meanwhile the sanctimonious clown Jimmy Carter is refusing to monitor elections in Honduras, because obviously a fair election in Honduras would be a very bad thing!
Jimmy Carter says... "Me don't want to know! Me don't want to see it! Me don't want to hear about it!"
What a fucking freak-show!
October 28, 2009 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
UPDATE: From Today's State Department Daily Briefing.
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2009/oct/130972.htm
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1:19 p.m. EDT
MR. KELLY: Good afternoon. Just a few remarks at the top on – related to Honduras.
The United States was saddened to learn of the death of Mr. Micheletti’s nephew and we extend our condolences to his family for their tragic loss. As of now, we have no information about the motive of this violent act.
I also would like to announce that Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs Tom Shannon, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Craig Kelly, and White House Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Western Hemisphere Affairs Dan Restrepo will travel to Honduras later this week. The delegation plans to meet with representatives from both sides to discuss strategies to move the Guaymuras process forward. They will urge both sides to show flexibility and redouble their efforts to bring the crisis to an end.
And I’ll take your questions.
QUESTION: On that subject, Ian.
MR. KELLY: Yeah, Dave.
QUESTION: And is it – is the – are the talks down there at an impasse? I understand that Zelaya isn’t engaging anymore on that subject.
MR. KELLY: Well, it’s, as we say, a rapidly developing situation. There have been some developments both last night and this morning. The two sides are still talking, and the U.S. remains actively engaged with both sides. We’re talking to them on the phone, and our Embassy on the ground is talking to them. There are also representatives of the OAS who are helping facilitate this dialogue. And we’re just taking every opportunity to try and press on both sides the urgency of the situation and to try and get them to resolve this as soon as possible. The Secretary spoke with both sides as well, spoke to Mr. Micheletti and to President Zelaya. So we are --
QUESTION: When was that?
MR. KELLY: -- very actively engaged. Saturday, I believe. It was over the weekend, anyway.
QUESTION: Ian?
MR. KELLY: Yeah.
QUESTION: You say that the U.S. remains actively engaged with both sides. But in fact, you – I think “remains actively engaged” is a bit of a misstatement, is it not? Because you had not been actively engaged with both sides for very long.
MR. KELLY: Well, yeah.
QUESTION: I mean --
MR. KELLY: Fair enough. I mean, we’ve been saying consistently that we’re working through the OAS, that we were trying to play a helpful and active role through the OAS mechanism. The Secretary yesterday decided that the time was right to send this senior delegation down to get more directly involved in the process. We continue to support the OAS involvement in this. But the Secretary thought it was time for Assistant Secretary Shannon and NSC Senior Director Restrepo, as well as Craig Kelly, to get involved in this.
QUESTION: Prior to this, the only time that you would have sent people from Washington to deal directly with Micheletti’s side was as part of the OAS delegation, correct?
MR. KELLY: That’s right. Well, Ambassador Llorens has been involved, of course, on the ground. But as far as participation --
QUESTION: No, no --
MR. KELLY: -- from Washington --
QUESTION: -- but from here.
MR. KELLY: Yeah, you’re right. It was only as part of an OAS --
QUESTION: So – right.
MR. KELLY: -- delegation.
QUESTION: Okay. So why did she make the decision that it was now time for you to become directly --
MR. KELLY: Well– yeah. I just – I think it’s getting quite urgent. What we want is we want to see an election, which is coming in about exactly a month, to enjoy the kind of international legitimacy that the people of Honduras deserve for their government. And we have said all along that we’ve made this a priority and we wanted to be as helpful as we could to try and bring this to a successful resolution. And I think things – talks on Friday seemed to break down, and it was at that point that the Secretary decided to get involved directly and called both Mr. Micheletti and President Zelaya.
QUESTION: Okay. And when are they going?
MR. KELLY: I believe they’re going tomorrow and will stay, I think, for a couple days.
Yeah.
QUESTION: Nick Spicer, Al Jazeera. Could I ask a question about the now rather public resignation of Matthew Hoh, who is --
MR. KELLY: Is there anything else on Honduras? Did you have something on --
QUESTION: Yeah, I do. Do you still think a legitimate election is possible given that it is only a month away?
MR. KELLY: Well, I think the clock is ticking. I think, in order for it to be seen as legitimate and for the authorities down there to conduct a completely open and transparent electoral process, that there needs to be some time, and this is precisely why we see some urgency in this.
So – yes.
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Acting President Roberto Michelleti's nephew, Enzo Michelleti, 24, was found murdered execution style along with another as yet unidentified man. Enzo was is not known to have any political involvement, but his Sister Karina Michelleti is an active member of the Resistance movement. It is not known who is behind this.
On the same day, Colonel Concepcion Jimenez was killed by gunmen outside his home in Tegucigalpa. Col. Jimenez was in charge of an Armed Forces factory that manufactured military clothing.
A third incident, I beleive yesterday, Tegucigalpa businessman Alfredo Jalil, father of Gavo Jalil, Jr., the vice minister of defense in the de facto government, was kidnapped from the Colonia Lomas.
October 27, 2009 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I say...
"Thanks for the list of terrorist executions by Zelaya's thugs."
Neoboho replies...
"Who says it's Zelaya's friends who are doing the killing, just because it's relatives and officials of the de facto government who got killed?"
"Eskimos probably killed Micheletti's nephew!"
"Hurrah for Zelaya!"
October 28, 2009 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink