Costa Rica's Oskar Arias, mediator between Manuel Zelaya and the Coup government of Honduras,
expressed his fear that failure of the negotiations would lead to civil war. Subsequently he has
asked both parties for an additional 72 hours to work out an agreeement. Meanwhile on the ground in Honduas, pro-Zelaya protestors have blocked highways, and protestors have also stationed themselves at
President Zelaya's home in Catacamas, which is now surrounded by the military.
Zelaya agreed to Arias' mediation pllan, but the Coup government rejected it, in part over the return of Zelaya to Honduras. The Micheletti faction offered a counter proposal, which reflects propaganda more than reality. You can read an English translation
here, and Honduran blogger Raj's comments below are wel worth reading.
There is evidence that the Golpistas (coupsters) are no longer have a unity of purpose and solidarity. We're talking about the 48 main golpistas identified in the Honduran paper
El Libertador on the 18th of this month. Globo Radio in Honduras
reported July 6:
Businessmen Ricardo Maduro, Rafael Ferrari and Carlos Flores
Facussé had a meeting this Sunday at dawn with the de facto government
and withdrew their support. Ex-president Carlos Flores left Honduras
with his family, headed toward Washington.
Maduro, of the far right National Party, was president of Honduras before Zelaya, and he is president of the Bank of Honduras. Ferrari owns 3 TV stations, and has interests in banking, energy and real estate. But
Carlos Flores Facussé, former Honduran president (1998-2002) when Hurricane Mitch devastated Honduras, is the most interesting of the three. Margarita
Facussé de Flores, Carlos Flores' mother, is sister to Honduran political king-pin
Miguel Facussé. The link chronicle's Miguel's efforts to disenfranchise the residents of Zacate Grande Island in order to turn it into the playground of the wealthy elites in Honduras. Another, this time on the Carribean side of Honduras, is Miguel intrusion into land belonging to the Afro-Honduran Garifuna ethnic minority, is chronicled
here. But I have to resist getting derailed on my point with Miguel.
The point is that Miguel
Facussé's influence on Honduran politics is overwhelming - he is essentially apolitical, buying loyalty from any party in support his business enterprises. In this context I think it is revealing that Miguel's nephew, Carlos Flores, would defect from the golpistas. This suggest to me that the coup leaders (an Carlos Flores has been cited as the principle) seriously underestimated the international response to the coup, significantly in the area of suspended financial packages and aid that came to Honduras before the coup. U.S. Military and non-humanitarian aid is frozen; European Union aid has been suspended; The International Transportation Union has called for a blockade of Hounduran ships; IMF loans have been suspended; Petrocarribe has stopped petrochemical shipmenys to Honduras, and a host of other economic sactions have been imposed.
In the course of the global recession, the wealty elites of Honduras have been shoring up their losses by dipping into the national budget fore perqs, many or them tied directly to international aid programs. Zelaya tried to stop this, and now the golpista's actions have sealed off this source of revenue completely. Did Miguel
Facussé call his nephew and say "Carlos, this isn't working out the way it was supposed to. I'm losing a lot of money. You must stop it at once!"
Back to Oskar Arias mediation effort and his call for a 72 hour extension. Yesterday, Arias received a FAX from Carlos Flores Facussé:
SUGGESTIONS
Both parties commit to guaranteeing the physical safety of the other in any scenario.
Both
parties commit, for a term of six months, to a moratorium in taking any
legal action against the other for actions carried out before the 1st
of July, 2009.
Both parties commit to retake their oaths to the
Constitution and Laws of Honduras, as well as to submit to the
authority granted to governmental institutions by the Constitution.
Both
parties express their remorse for the loss of confidence of the people
of Honduras in the Constitution and the Government occasioned by the
recent events and swear that they will exert themselves in
reconstructing this confidence through transparency.
Both
parties commit to the trustworthy fulfillment of the present calendar
for the general elections of this November and swear to permit the
preparations to proceed free of any interference or manipulation.
Both
parties commit to not incur any attempt to suspend, alter, or carry out
any consultation at a national level in reference to the Constitution
of the Republic for a term of one year.
Both parties welcome the
OAS for the formation of a temporary commission that will provide
technical consulting about the implementation of this accord and the
preparations for the general elections.
Both parties agree to
establish a Truth Commission with well-defined goals, whose members
will be chosen and accepted by all the interested parties.
Under
these solemn conditions, both parties commit to the restoration in a
peaceful manner of President Manuel "Mel" Zelaya Rosales for the period
of the remainder of his term.
Both parties, together, will
formally meet, as soon as possible, with the National Congress and the
Supreme Court of the Republic of Honduras to review, explain, and gain
consensus of the Legislative Power and the Judicial Power to the agreed
upon conditions.
Both parties agree to jointly order the Armed
Forces and the National Police (the security forces) to desist and
avoid arbitrary arrests, and any violation of the liberty of the
person, the liberty of expression, the liberty of movement, and any
other democratic liberty guaranteed by the Constitution of the Republic.
The
Armed Forces and Police obligated to fulfill their constitutional
functions and pass to the jurisdiction of the Supreme Electoral
Tribunal. The present authorities guarantee stability in their commands.
Both
parties will abstain from promoting or encouraging demonstrations
against the electoral process or that promote insurrection, civil
disobedience, illegal conduct or anything that would lead to violence
or violation of the Law.
Respect the budget approved in Congress.
Verification of the accords with wide representation.
This is a counter-proposal to the proposal submitted by Michelleti. So who's in charge in Honduras?
A final note with regards to a civil war. It could very well be the case that the Golpistas cannot afford a civil war, especially with the old cold-war style military support from the U.S. There are signs that the police are distancing themselves from the Army, indicating that they too are defecting from the Golpistas. Hopefullly Arias is wrong.