A Song For Sunday...Archie Roach


All Men Choose The Path They Walk. From The Tracker w/ David Gulpilil

Lula McBoeing-Boeing


Oh what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practise to deceive!
- Sir Walter Scott

It's a two billion dollar deal or better.  Brasil is shopping for 36 jet fighters.  The contenders are:


http://www.france24.com/en/files/imagecache/france24_ct_player_thumbnail/story/rafale-new.jpg

The French Rafale (Squall) by Dissant. US$82.3 million

http://www.fmv.se/ImageVault/Images/id_242/conversionFormat_4/scope_4/ImageVaultHandler.aspx
Swedish JAS 39 Gripen (Griffin) by SAAB. US$40-61 million.

http://www.nilesprecision.com/images/fa-18.jpg
F/A-18E/F Super Hornet by Boeing. US$54.7 million

It seems like eliminating the French fighter on the basis of price tag is a slam dunk, yet Brasil is leaning in that direction.  Purchasing hi tech war machines is a tangle web, however.  A big issue, for example, is technology transfer.  In France, for further example, unions are trying to nix the deal between Lula da Silva and French President Sarkozy, because the aircraft workers see loss of jobs down the line.  Why?

Dassault designed and builds the Rafale fighter-bomber which France is prepared to sell to Brazil.

On signing a major military hardware agreement with French president Sarkozy, Lula da Silva said he was inclined to choose the French fighter Rafale because France is prepared to transfer sensitive technology and would also allow them to be assembled in Brazil.

I'm knowledged challenged about these kinds of thing - I just want to map out the complexity of military hardware sales between nations, especially how that "tangled web" plays out in the context of international diplomatic missions.

When first we practise to deceive!

Boeing has been jumping up and down to assure its shareholders that business is great; they have a large backload of orders to keep them busy for the next several years, yadda yadda yadda.  Yet Boeing recently laid off over 4K workers, and posted a larger than expected loss of $1.6 billion, and cut its 2009 profit estimate.  Airliner sales, which has sustained many of the world's aircraft manufacturers, have fallen off sharply due to the recession, and the focus is now on military aircraft.  I would think that being nice to Lula da Silva would be a top priority of our State Department, including sending one of State's top negotiators to Brasil, Tom Shannon.

Biography

Photo of Thomas A. Shannon, Jr.Thomas A. Shannon, Jr.
Assistant Secretary
Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs
Term of Appointment: 10/07/2005 to present

Thomas A. Shannon was confirmed as Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs on October 7, 2005.

A career member of the Senior Foreign Service, Mr. Shannon served as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Western Hemisphere Affairs at the National Security Council from 2003 to 2005. From 2002 to 2003, he was Deputy Assistant Secretary of Western Hemisphere Affairs at the Department of State, where he was Director of Andean Affairs from 2001 to 2002. He was U.S. Deputy Permanent Representative to the Organization of American States (OAS) from 2000 to 2001.

He served as Director for Inter-American Affairs at the National Security Council from 1999 to 2000; as Political Counselor at the U.S. Embassy in Caracas, Venezuela from 1996 to 1999; and as Regional Labor Attaché at the U.S. Consulate General in Johannesburg, South Africa from 1992 to 1996.

During his career as a Foreign Service Officer, Mr. Shannon also served as Special Assistant to the Ambassador at the U.S. Embassy in Brasilia, Brazil from 1989 to 1992; as Country Officer for Cameroon, Gabon, and Sao Tome and Principe from 1987 to 1989; and as the Consular/Political Rotational Officer at the U.S. Embassy in Guatemala City, Guatemala from 1984 to 1986.

Mr. Shannon holds a Doctorate and a Master's degree in politics from Oxford University, and a B.A. in Government and Philosophy from the College of William and Mary.


ring...ring..."Secretary Clinton"

"Madame Secretary, Jim DeMint here."

"How can I help you, Senator?"

"Well, how about recognizing the elections in Honduras without Mel being reinstated, for starters?"

"I can't do that.  The Accord clearly states that Zelaya must be reinstated.  That's been our policy all along."

"Are you kidding me?  With all due respect, the Accord is so ambiguous and fuzzy We can read anything into it that we want.  Are you on board?

"Where is this going, Jimbo?"

"OK, tell you what.  You tell me you'll recognize the elections no matter what, and I'll lift my hold on Valenzuela and Shannon.  It's a good deal.  I know you're anxious to get your boy down to Sambalandia, right?"

"Unnggg....good deal?  Hmmmm, well, OK." [hangs up phone]

So Valenzuela gets confirmed Thursday evening.  DeMint is a man of his word.  Next on the agenda, Thomas Shannon.  But the Republican Party is out of control - fractured, headless, no sense of reality.  Enter freshman Senator George LeMieux - you know, resigned Florida Senator Mel Martinez' appointed replacement - and sabotages DeMint's deal with Clinton. 
The Cubans in Florida are really pissed off at Shannon for his role in the Cuba OAS resolution.

This is just a off-the-top example of the complexity of US/Latinamica policy - there are several other burning issues informing the Obama Administration's Laninamerican policy.  But it seems to me that Republicans are playing too large a role in determining this policy.  DeMint's recent Honduran adventure is yielding GOP paydirt.  That's not a good thing.  The Obama Administration has sunk a few notches in reputation in Latinamerica, and the State Department is looking downright incompetent. 

Third-Rate Romance: What a Deal


The guy in the parking lot in his underwear is the deposed president of Honduras, who we thought would be restored to power by now - thus negating the coup d'etat and returning the country to its constitutional norm, paving the way for legitimate elections later this month.   What went wrong?

Zelaya pronounced the week-old agreement a "dead letter" after de facto rulers formed a new "reconciliation government" without Zelaya's participation, as the deal had required.

"The accord is a dead letter," Zelaya said on a Honduran radio station. "There is no sense in continuing to fool the Honduran people."

Under the accord, Zelaya and the man who replaced him, Roberto Micheletti, agreed to let the Honduran Congress vote on whether to reinstate Zelaya to office, as the international community has been demanding. But congressional leaders, who backed the coup, have yet to call a vote.

The plan also required the formation by Thursday of a temporary "unity Cabinet" with representatives of both sides.

Just before midnight Thursday, Micheletti announced a new government that did not include Zelaya or any of his supporters.
The existentialist question is who punked who?  That will be hashed out in days to come, but right now the charges are being tossed around.  Did the Obama Administration abandon its former reinstate Zelaya position?  It sure looks like it.  If it is true, then the meaning is that the over-arching policy position, that of  discouraging and preventing coup d'etats from succeeding, has been compromised for a make it go away solution to the political crisis in Honduras. 

Or did Michelleti and his Golpistas (coupsters) punk the Obama Administration?  Some folks actually believe that the golpistas could have negotiated in good faith, regardless of their performance over the span of 4 months, and their actions since the accord was signed.  I wonder if our officials pretended that the golpistas would actually do what they agreed to do?

Did Clinton punk Zelaya?  He was completely upbeat and confidant that he would be reinstated soon after his telephone conference with Clinton ten days ago.  Did the Secretary of State pump up his ego so he would sign on to the accord? 

I'm leaving out many of the details which have led up to the collapse of the accord.  I have no idea how this is going to play out.  It looks to me like the golpistas will emerge from this smelling like roses, and that will encourage repeat performances in Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua - and on to Boliva, Ecuador and beyond.  The Right will emerge triumphant.    

TALK POLICE ALERT!


I just heard Ned Lamont on Rachel Maddow use the word "dithering" twice.  My heart sank.  The word drips of Dickard Cheney's ectoplasm.  Kill "dithering."  Let's pray it does not encroach upon poltical discourse. 

TABU WORD....DITHERING*

*it's ok to quote .Cheney.

Zelaya To Be Reinstated...Maybe...Kind Of


Both factions have signed the accord to end the political standoff in Honduras.  We only have sketchy information so far, but La Prensa has published a tentative list of points - thanks to Greg Weeks for the translation:

1- La creación de un gobierno de unidad y reconciliación nacional.

The creation of a national reconciliation and unity government.

2- Rechazo a la amnistía delitos políticos, y demoratoria de acciones procesos penales.

Rejection of an amnesty for political crimes, and delay for penal processes.

3- Renunciar a una convocatoria a una Asamblea Nacional Constituyente o a reformar la Constitución en los artículos constitucionales irreformables.

Reject the convocation of a National Constitutional Assembly or reform of the unreformable constitutional articles.

4. Reconocer y apoyar las elecciones generales y el traspaso de Gobierno.

Recognize and support the general elections and the transfer of Government.

5- La transferencia de autoridad sobre las Fuerzas Armadas al Tribunal Supremo Electoral.

Transfer of authority over the Armed Forces to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal.

6- La creación de una comisión de verificación para hacer cumplir los puntos del acuerdo.

Creation of a commission of verification to ensure compliance with the points of the accord.

7- La formación de una comisión de la verdad para investigar los sucesos antes, durante y después del 28 de junio de 2009.

The formation of a truth commission to investigate the events before, during, and after June 28, 2009.

8- Solicitar a la comunidad internacional la normalización de las relaciones internacionales con nuestro país.

Request from the international community normalization of international relations with our country.

9. Apoyar una propuesta que permite un voto en el Congreso Nacional con una previa opinión de la Corte Suprema de Justicia para retrotraer todo el Poder Ejecutivo previo al 28 de junio.

Support the proposal that permits a vote in the National Congress with previous judgment from the Supreme Court to make the Executive Power retroactive to before June 28.
Point 9 means that the Supreme Court and the Congress must agree to the accord.  As I understand it, since the Supreme Court has already ruled that it would not accept Zelaya's restitution, the SC will now only decide if Congress can ratify the accord.  What are the chances of the Honduran congress agreeing to reinstate Zelaya?  I think it is good, perhaps over 50%.  According the the election polls, National Party candidate Pepe Lobos is leading Liberal Party candidate Elvin Santos by a significant margin.  While the Liberal Party is the majority party in Congress, the National Party is a significant minority.  If congress rejects reinstating Zelaya, the accord fails, and the election will not be recognized by the international community, including (maybe) the US.  Additionally, Zelaya is also supported by a minority of Liberal Party congress members - 25 or 30.  That doesn't leave that many votes to reject the accord.  We shall see - the vote could take place today.

Point 2 is interesting, since both factions could face legal procedings in the future.  I think Zelaya agreed to this because he is confident that the charges against him won't stand up to litigation.  But this issue will be clearer when the final accord documents are released.

Finally, the "people" don't benefit all that well by this accord, since their interest in for a new constitution is thwarted. But note that Juan Barahona, a leader from the Resistance Front, was originally part of Zelaya's negotiation team, but withdrew two weeks ago when the issue of the stopping actions for a constituent assembly was put on the table.  As the Resistance Front explained, Barahona's withdrawal was specifically aimed at keeping the constitutional assembly open for the Resistance Front, and it was not an indication of the Front's not supporting Zelaya. 

An Unfolding Mystery in Honduras


I like a good mystery - especially the ones that you can follow clues and form suspicions and decided whether or not the butler did it.  There's a good one going on right now on the Washington/Honduras axis - and all indications are that the butler may confess later this week.

First off, the negotiations between the Zelaya faction and Michelleti faction once again failed at the end of last week.  Charges of intransigents  have been flowing both directions, but opinion on this outside Honduras points to Michelleti, who refuses to consider the reinstatement of Zalaya.  Michelleti's last offers brought in numerous conditions that were far beyond the scope of the San José Accord, and were rejected on that basis.

Last Sunday, however, President Zelaya releases a very upbeat message that an agreement would soon be reached on settling the country's political crises.

    "I cannot give details of how this will be achieved, but Honduras cannot remain in this situation," Zelaya told the local broadcasting station Radio Globo.
That cast the mystery for me: what had happened between the doom and gloom of Friday's announcement that 14 days of negotiations had failed?

My guess is the story in yesterday's NYT: U.S. Sending Envoys to Try to End Crisis in Honduras.

This will be the first time since the coup that the Obama administration has taken a leading role in pressuring the leaders of the de facto government to restore democratic order in Honduras. The stepped-up pressure comes after months of apparently fruitless talks about whether Mr. Zelaya will be returned to power.

That strikes me as significent.  Remember, the position of the Obama Administration has been until now to support the OAS role in resolving the crisis, beyond the visa sanctions (which, incidentally, culminated with the suspension of visas for over 600 Hondurans who are associated with the coup d'etat) .  Now we have some direct intervention.

The new effort began on Friday, officials said, when Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton made calls to both Mr. Zelaya and the head of the de facto government, Roberto Micheletti.

In those calls, officials said, Mrs. Clinton told the two leaders that there was "increasing frustration" in the United States and Latin America over the deteriorating situation in Honduras, the hemisphere's third-poorest country. She reserved her toughest comments for Mr. Micheletti, officials said, because the United States believes he has been "the most difficult."

"During the call, he spent a lot of time talking about the past," a State Department official said. "She wanted to talk about the future."

Among other things, Mr. Micheletti has refused to accept any political deal that would allow Mr. Zelaya to return to power. He has demanded that the international community declare Mr. Zelaya's ouster a legal transition of power. And, with the help of lobbyists in Washington, he has tried to pressure the United States to agree to recognize the outcome of presidential elections scheduled for next month.

Most Latin American countries have said that they would not recognize the elections unless Mr. Zelaya, who is holed up in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa, is first restored to power. The United States has threatened to do the same.

A senior administration official said Mrs. Clinton spoke to Mr. Micheletti on Friday for more than half an hour.

"The purpose was to remind him there were two pathways to the elections," the official said, "one where Honduras goes by itself and the other where it goes with broad support from the international community."

My sneaking suspicion is that this is the source of Zelaya's upbeat optimism that the crisis will be settled this week.  However, Zelaya's "certainty" must derive from his conversation with Secretary Clinton - namely she gave him information about the leverage the U.S. negotiation team will use in Tegucigalpa this week.  The team leader is Assistant Secretary of State Thomas A. Shannon - whose confirmation as United States Ambassador to Brazil has been blocked in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee by Jim Demento, er, Demint.

 




Forbes: Honduras Havoc


Forbes just published an opinion piece this morning which challenges the validity of the recent Law Library of Congress report that I covered in my "Schock and Awe" blog nearly a month ago.  Considering Forbes' prestige and MSM bona fides, I think it is very significant.

Let's put it in perspective.  The Report, CRS LL File No. 2009-002965, was requested by Republican Aaron Schock, one of the group of U.S. legislators who recently visited Honduras in order to undermine official Obama Administration policy on the Honduran coup d'etat.  The Report has also risen in the MSM to stand as the primary legal argument to prove that President Zelaya's removal and exile was a legal transition of power and not a coup d'etat.  The question lingers: do we have here a case of incompetence within the Law Library of Congress, or do we have a case of intentional disinformation, a species of propaganda?

Both the White House and the State Department must be asking that question.  One enterprising conservative Republican blogger, Joe Collins @ Alabama in Between, noted on September 22 that someone at the White House and the State Department used Google to search the report's author, Norma C. Gutierrez - search terms crs norma c. gutierrez and norma c. gutierrez crs honduras respectively.       

Brazil's OAS Ambassador: Torture at Embassy in Honduras


Wed, 10/21/2009 - 16:42 -- AP

Brazil, at Organization of American States, Accuses Honduran Coup Regime of "Torture"

For Immediate Release: October 21, 2009
Contact: Dan Beeton, 202-239-1460

Washington, D.C. - The Brazilian government's Ambassador to the Organization of American States, Ruy de Lima Casaes e Silva, accused the Honduran coup regime of "torture" in its ongoing attacks on Brazil's embassy in Honduras.

Ambassador Lima Casaes described an elaborate series of measures taken by the Honduran security forces surrounding the Embassy to cause sleep deprivation among those inside. These included ultra-high-intensity lights, high-decibel sound, and other measures.

He also mentioned other attacks including tear gas and attacks with unidentified gases, and other forms of harassment and violations of international law including restricting food deliveries.

All of these are serious violations of international law, and have already been condemned on September 25 by the Security Council of the United Nations. Today OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza also condemned the ongoing "harassment" of the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa.

"These ongoing violations indicate that the coup regime in Honduras has no interest in dialogue or a mediated solution to the Honduran crisis," said Mark Weisbrot, Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. "The also indicate an astounding lack of regard for international law, unusual even in the history of military coups over the last century."

Yes, the "negotiations" have been going on in Tegucigalpa.  At one point last week both negotiating teams agreed on all points of the San Jose Accord, including Zelaya's reinstatement as President.  By later the same day, Michelleti nixed it - and said that the Supreme Court should decide (the court already decided last month...no Zelaya.)  MSM is spreading the word that "both sides are holding up any agreement" but the OAS President Insulza said yesterday that it was the coup leaders who were holding progress up:

Tuesday, October 20, 2009
 Insulza Points A Finger
El Universal, a Venezuelan newspaper, citing a EFE wire story, reports this evening that José Miguel Insulza, OAS President, lamented that the de facto government of Honduras introduced a proposal that was not in conformance with the San Jose Accord and in this manner, "made impossible a good result" in the dialogue to resolve the crisis in Honduras.

"One of the parties presented a proposal that included a point not included in the San Jose Accord, which seeks to force the legitimacy of what happened on June 28. This act make a good outcome in the dialog impossible."
And What's Happening at State?
The rumor mill churned out the news that unidentified State Department Officials are crossing the Obama Administration's official policy on Honduras: to not recognize the elections next month if Zelaya is not restored to office.  Sez Time:

But there are growing signs that the U.S. may be willing to abandon that condition. A number of well-placed sources in Honduras and the U.S. tell TIME that officials in the State Department and the U.S.'s OAS delegation have informed them that the Obama Administration is mulling ways to legitimize the election should talks fail to restore Zelaya in time. "We're suddenly hearing from them that the one may no longer be a [precondition] for the other," says a Western diplomat in the Honduran capital of Tegucigalpa, where Zelaya is currently holed up in the Brazilian embassy.
I think the "growing signs" was Lewis Amselem's wild-card movida at the OAS a few weeks ago where he joined Canada, Panama and Columbia in blocking an OAS vote on Hondurasl, during which meeting he blurted out words to the effect that the US may recognize the elections if Zelaya is not reinstated.  This isn't State's policy, and it looks like Secretary Clinton may have bush-moles problems.  This happened around the same time as those GOPeers went to Honduras to conduct their own foreign policy, against the policy of the US Government.  At any rate, we should note that State pulled yet more visas from Hondurans who support the coup d'etat yesterday.  Another shot across the bow:  agree to the San Jose Accord or else.

Soccer To Me
Hondurans were wildly pleased with the National Soccer Team's making it to the international play-off recently - first time in 27 years.  While most rank and file Hondurans simply celebrated the victory, Michelleti attempted to turn the event into a propaganda triumph to support his ever-faltering dictatorship.  He decreed a national holiday, which was very popular and he should have left it at that.  But noooo, he cordoned off the Presidential Palace with police and armed forces in full riot gear, and held an award ceremony for the team in the presence of his "by invitation only" supporters.  Absent from the ceremony, however, was the National Soccer Team, who had elected to boycott the ceremony - all but two players, who attended but refused the award. 

Whoops, This Just In
Now there he goes again.  No sooner had Michelleti rescinded a decree that abrogated all civil rights in Honduras - because the UN Human Rights team had arrived - that he has declared another law outlawing public gatherings without notifying the police 24 hours in advance.

Sniper fire at Brazilian Embassy: Radio Globo


Radio Globo, which now broadcasts on the Internet from a clandestine location in Honduras, recently announced that snipers are firing into the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa, where President Zelaya and members of his government and supporters have taken refuge.  No reports of injuries have been made at this time.

Photos of one of the sniper platforms was taken early this morning and sent to Adrienne Pine at Quotha.

If this story pans out, what will Brazil's reaction be?

More Fascist Repression in Honduras


Presidential decree banishing non-coup media

Executive Agreement Number 124-2009

The Constitutional President of the Republic

Considering: That the human person is the supreme end of society, the state, and all have the obligation to respect, protect, and conform to article 62 of our Constitution, the rights of every person are limited by the rights of the others, for the security of all, and for the just demands of the general good and the developing democracy.

Considering: That the President of the Republic and the Council of Ministers have answered, through the organs of defense and security of the State, and other entities, the deterioration which we have begun to have, the pretense of protected goods, by social communications media, systematically denaturing the objective of the Democratic State of law, and generating a regime of social anarchy encouraging vandalism up to the point of attempting against the social peace and the security of the state, and leaving incalculable effects on the national economy.

Considering: That it is an urgent necessity to preserve the public order and peace in all the national territory, to guarantee life and the well being of all people residing in the national territory, with the ultimate end, guaranteed by our constitution of the Republic, and with the democratic system, fundamental pillar of our society.

Considering: That it corresponds to the State to guarantee liberty of though and expression, but when the communications media attempt against the national security, the public order, the health, or the public morals, it makes it imperative to execute regulations founded in the existing legislation in conformity with the INTERAMERICAN CONVENTION ON HUMAN RIGHTS.

Wherefore
The constitutional President of the republic, in conformance with the articles 245 points 7 and 16, 248 and 252 of the constitution of the Republic, articles 11, 17, 18, 20, 22 number 10, 24, 116, and 117 of the General Law of Public Administration and the rest that the constitution and the laws confer.

Agree
Article 1: Declare, for reasons of national security and in application of the commands in Article 28 of the case law of the Telecommunications sector, specifically that referring to the use of the radio spectrum in the national territory, apply the measures which in law correspond to those that infringe the law.

Article 2: Instruct for legal effects corresponding to the National Commission of Telecommunications (CONATEL) and other competent organs of the state, that they proceed in conformity with their laws, to protect the national security in the function of the larger interests of the country, the good, the physical and moral integrity of humans. The state, as owner of the radio spectrum can revoke or cancel the use of approved titles (licenses and permissions) authorized by CONATEL to operators of broadcast speech and television that emit messages that generate national abhorrence, pretend to be protected speech, and also call for a regimen of social anarchy against the democratic state that attempts against the social peace and human rights.

Article 3: Remit to the National Commission of Telecommunications (CONATEL), the communications contained, the reports emitted by the defense and security forces and other parts of the government for its fulfillment.

Article 4: The present accord is executed immediately and should be published in the official newspaper La Gaceta.

Given in the city of Tegucigalpa, municipality of the Central District the 5th of October of 2009.

Communicate and Publish this.

Robert Micheletti
Constitutional President of the Republic
Oscar Raul Matute Cruz
Secretary of State

[Dated Monday, October 5th, "effective immediately"]

Michetteli had just announced the recension of his previous decree due to international and domestic pressure.  But he has continued acting as if the previous decree was still in effect, stating that it won't stop until the recension is published in La Gaceta ( which is like our "Congressional Record.)  He stated that the printing press was broken, so he was compelled to continue denying Honduran people their basic constitutional guaranteed liberties. 

Meanwhile, Radio Globo is broadcasting clandestinely on Internet Radio from a secret location in Honduras.  You should be able to hear it at this link.  If you understand Spanish, you're in luck.  Actually, since the Gestapo shut down it's radio operation and they went underground, their numbers have grown enormously.  400K listeners now, 100K in Honduras. 

Channel 36 owner, Esdras Amado Lopez, is now in hiding after the Gestapo shut down his TV station.  He has received death threats, and believes that there is a warrant out for his arrest.

This is the reason the international community, including the US and OAS, feel that the November elections cannot be considered legitimate.  Michelleti keeps exacerbating the situation with his repression of civil freedoms, while rhetorically giving voice for his hope for free elections next month.  He has stated that if there is no president elect to take office in January, he will remain as president for the next two years.  Looks to me like this is his power play, folks - whine about elections while doing everything he can to make sure elections will not take place in Honduras.

New Political Poll Numbers From Honduras


A very reputable poll, excellent methodology and a good sample.

Are you in favor of the June 28 coup d'etat against President Manuel Zelaya Rosales?

In favor of coup: 17.4 percent

Opposed to coup: 52.7 percent

No response: 29.9 percent


Should Micheletti stay in power or leave the current government?

Micheletti should stay: 22.2 percent

Micheletti should leave: 60.1 percent

No response: 17.7 percent


Do you support the return of Manuel Zelaya Rosales to the Presidency of the Republic?

Support Zelaya's return: 51.6 percent

Oppose Zelaya's return: 33 percent

No response: 15.4 percent


Do you agree or disagree with the marches by the national resistance throughout the country against the coup d'etat?

Support the marches: 45.5 percent

Oppose the marches: 41.8 percent

No response: 12.7 percent


Do you think that the Armed Forces and National Police are engaging in repression or not against the National Resistance?

Yes, there is repression: 54.5 percent

No, there is not repression: 21.8 percent

No response: 23.7 percent


Do you agree with the repression or condemn the repression that the Armed Forces and National Police have engaged in against the National Resistance?

Against repression: 65.4 percent

For repression: 8 percent

No response: 26.4 percent


Should the general elections organized by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal for November 19 happen even if the institutional crisis isn't resolved?

Yes, have elections: 66.4 percent

No, don't have them: 23.8 percent

No response: 2.9 percent

There are more questions at the link.  There is also an unverified poll that asked the question about the 4th Ballot (to convene a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution) with 72% polling "yes."  I'm waiting for something solid on this.

Coup D'etat in Honduras: A Juridical Analysis, by Edmundo Orellana


Some of you may remember Edmundo Orellana was President Zelaya's Minister of Defense who resigned his position in the government just prior to the Coup D'etat on June 28, 2006, over a legal disagreement with Zelaya.  Orellana's credentials are impeccable.

Orellana, in addition to his most recent service in government, has an illustrious history as a Professor of Constitutional Law and a member of various Honduran governments. He holds a PhD in law, and was from 1976 a Professor of Law at the National University of Honduras (UNAH). His government service began in 1982, when constitutionality was restored to Honduras; was Magistrate in the Court of Appeals of "lo Contencioso Administrativo" (the courts that ruled against Zelaya in his attempts to hold a poll) from 1988-1994; was the Attorney General of the country from 1994 to 1999; served as Honduras' ambassador to the UN, was a cabinet minister in multiple administrations, is the recipient of many honors, and the author of legal texts as well as research articles.

Orellana has written numerous articles and letters criticizing the Coup D'etat since June 28, and the latest is a very comprehensive analysis of the legal issues surrounding the coup, addressing both Zelaya's actions and that of the coup leaders with respect to the Honduran constitution and law.

Coup D'état in Honduras. A Juridical Analysis, by Edmundo Orellana

It is moderately long, so I won't copy it here.  This is a must-read document for anyone who wishes to untangle the web of falsehoods and half-truths that have been spun by coup apologists on the political right, and sadly on the left as well.   

Orellana concludes with a remedy - the convening of the National Constituent Assembly - the very issue that caused the coup members to panic and destroy the Honduran constitution in the first place.  The coup must not stand.
 

US Congress Weighs in: Open Letter to Honduran Congress


RAJ got the scoop:

Congress of the United States

An Open Letter to the Congress of Honduras
October 2, 2009

His Excellency José Ángel Saavedra
President of the Congress of Honduras

Your Excellency:

It is with profound respect that the undersigned members of the U.S. Congress write to you and the members of the Honduran Congress to share our views on the difficult events currently underway in your country.  We understand that you have received visitors from our Congress who represent the minority party, the Republican Party, who have expressed views that differ markedly from those of President Obama's administration and the Democratic majoritly party in the U.S. Congress.  What unites the persons signing this letter is that we are all members of the majority Democratic Party, we support the Obama Administration's efforts in Honduras, and that we each have a deep and longstanding interest and admiration for Latin America and for Honduras.

We believe that the coup against President Zelaya was unconstitutional; the absence of a legitimate president, the violation of human rights and the curtailment of civil liberties are unacceptable; and these conditions make the holding of free and fair elections next November in Honduras impossible.

We call upon the de facto government of Honduras to restore constitutional order and respect freedom of expression and internationally-recognized human rights.  We urge the Michelleti de facto government to permit the restoration of Manuel Zelaya to the presidency as outlined in the San José Accords.  We call upon all parties to resolve this conflict peacefully.

The United States government has one position, which has been a repeated call for dialogue between both sides, and support for the San José Accords, as proposed by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias.  We will continue to encourage the U.S. administration to work multilaterally with our allies in the region.  Should the de facto government continue to stall, we will encourage our government to not recognize your upcoming elections.

We know full well the weight of your task in this fast-moving scenario,, as your Constitutional responsibilities are very similar to ours.  We thought it important that you be aware of our views on these critical issues since you are the authors of the laws that govern your country and guardians of the rule of law in Honduras.  Count on us to assist in any way we can.

Sincerely,
James P. McGovern, Bill Delahunt, Janice D. Schakowsky, Sam Farr,  Gregory W. Meeks, Xavier Becerra


O Amselem, My Son, My Son (repost)


In the Old Testament, Absalom Amselem rebelled against his father mother, King David Queen Hillary.  In the end, Absolom Amselem got his head tangled up in the branches, and King David's Queen Hillary's soldiers finished him off.

Man, was I wrong.  I commented yesterday that the remarks made at the OAS meeting by Acting Ambassador to the OAS, Lewis Amselem, was upholding US State Department's commitment to the San José Accord. 

"Zelaya's return to Honduras is irresponsible and foolish and it doesn't serve to the interest of the people nor those who seek the restoration of democratic order in Honduras." "Everything will be better if all parties refrain from provoking and inciting violence."

"The president should stop acting as though he were starring in an old movie."

(note: I haven't found Amselem's exact quotes - seems like every news site is twisting them around a bit - so take the above as a paraphrase.)

Since State wants Zelaya to be reinstated, how could such comments be appropriate?  What was I thinking?  Was it simply a slip of the tongue on Amselem's part - expressing personal opinion rather that official State Department policy?

The devil is in the details.  While we are getting so excited about the statements quoted above - Zelaya supporters are miffed inside and outside of Hunduras (foolish translates into idiota in Spanish), and the Golpistas and the U.S. rightwing are running with the story - Amselem said something far more important that directly conflicts with Clinton's policy, and has caused the State Department to do some damage control.  From RAJ:

I can parse a statement from the US State Department as an American, and I can parse the same statement the way a Honduran does. I have to think that the State Department can do both parsings as well. Ian Kelly's (State Department Spokesperson) statement yesterday basically ignored Anselem's vulgarities yesterday. Anselem's actually suggested in the OAS session that the US would recognize the results of the November 29 elections, whether or not anything changes in Honduras, and was part of a faction that included Canada, Panama, and Columbia that took that position and blocked an OAS resolution to not recognized the results. We aligned ourselves with the right wing governments of Latin America. The State Department and the Obama White House have not repudiated Anselem's actions in the OAS.

Note: There is some discepency regarding the reporting of countries who obstructed the consensus at the OAS meeting.  The vote was taken in a closed session, and I don't know where RAJ obtained this particuar list of OAS members.

The OAS meeting was held to form a consensus on officially denouncing the November election in Honduras.  Secretary Clinton has already announced the the U.S. will not recognize the election unless Zelaya is returned to power (via the San José Accord).  So what is Amselem doing?  Who is Lewis Amselem?

Deputy U.S. Permanent Representative

W. Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of Mission W. Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of Mission

W. Lewis Amselem

Lewis Amselem assumed the duties of Deputy U.S. Permanent Representative to the Organization of American States in July 2008. He is currently serving as Acting U.S. Permanent Representative.

Prior to his designation as Deputy U.S. Permanent Representative, Mr. Amselem served as Foreign Policy Advisor at the United States Southern Command, Miami, Florida, since August 2006.  In that capacity, he provided assistance and expert advice to the Commander on issues involving SOUTHCOM's mission as it relates to the formulation and execution of foreign policy.

Mr. Amselem came to SOUTHCOM after serving as Deputy Chief of Mission in Jakarta, Indonesia (2003-2006).  A career member of the Senior Foreign Service with the rank of Minister-Counselor (FE-MC), Mr. Amselem joined the Foreign Service in 1978.

He served as Vice-Consul and Labor officer in Georgetown, Guyana (1978-80), followed by a tour in Islamabad, Pakistan as Refugee Officer (1981-83).  He returned to the Department of State as Pakistan Country Affairs Officer (1983-85).

From 1985-88, he was the Executive Officer for the Third Committee at the US Mission to the UN in New York, and a member of several US delegations to the Human Rights Commission in Geneva and the Commission on the Status of Women in Vienna.  He went to Guatemala as the Embassy Political-Military Officer (1988-92), and to La Paz, Bolivia (1992-95) as Counselor for Political Affairs.

In Washington (1995-97) he served in the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs as Deputy Director and then acting Director of the Office of International Security and Peacekeeping.  He became Counselor for Political and Economic Affairs at the U.S. Embassy in Panama (1997-2000) and Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in Colombo, Sri Lanka (2000-2003).

Mr. Amselem holds three Department of State Superior Honor Awards, and two Meritorious Honor Awards.  He received the 1991 Director General's Award for Reporting for his coverage of the political-military and human rights situation in Guatemala.

Mr. Amselem graduated from the University of California with BA in Political Science in 1974 and earned an MA in International Relations from Brandeis University in 1976.  He speaks near native Spanish and has facility in Portuguese.  He is married to Mirentxu Salegui of San Sebastian Spain; they have four children.

A Bush appointment.  President Obama has appointed Carmen Lomellin as Ambassador to the OAS on September 14, and she has not yet been confirmed.  So Amselem is temporarily filling in the gap.  There is some clamor going on in the Left that he sports neocon bona fides, but I haven't seen those yet.  But Amselem's claim to infamy comes from his diplomatic post in Guatemala, which is cited above as Embassy Political-Military Officer (1988-92).  I'm not sure how this works out, but historical sources say Amselem was also the Human Rights Oficer.  At any rate, Amselem was named as the source of a very vicious claim against a victim of arrest and torture by the Guatemalan authorities, Ursaline nun Dianna Ortiz.

Dianna Ortiz is an Ursuline nun from New Mexico who journeyed to Guatemala in the early 1980s as a missionary, teaching Mayan children in the highlands. After months of receiving threats, Ortiz was abducted and brutally raped by armed men in November 1989. One of the men overseeing the torture appeared to be American. The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights concluded that: "Sister Ortiz was placed under surveillance and threatened, then kidnapped and tortured, and that agents of the government of Guatemala were responsible for these crimes. . . including violating Dianna Ortiz's rights to 'humane treatment, personal liberty, a fair trial, privacy, freedom of conscience and of religion, freedom of association and judicial protection.'" Ortiz's ordeal did not end with her escape. Her torment continued as she sought answers from the U.S. government about the identity of her torturers in her unrelenting quest for justice. Ortiz's raw honesty and capacity to articulate the agony she suffered compelled the United States to declassify long-secret files on Guatemala, and shed light on some of the darkest moments of Guatemalan history and American foreign policy.

You may not want to read what follows this biographical introduction, just as a warning.  Ortiz memoirs bring us face to face with extremes of human depravity - things we would rather think fantastic than real.  That said, there are a couple of paragraphs that are very relevant to this blog:

 

Two months later, after a U.S. doctor had counted 111 cigarette burns on my back alone, the story changed. In January 1990, the Guatemalan defense minister publicly announced that I was a lesbian and had staged my abduction to cover up a tryst. The minister of the interior echoed this statement and then said he had heard it first from the U.S. embassy. According to a congressional aide, the political affairs officer at the U.S. embassy, Lew Anselem, was indeed spreading the same rumor.

In the presence of Ambassador Thomas Stroock, this same human rights officer told a delegation of religious men and women concerned about my case that he was "tired of these lesbian nuns coming down to Guatemala." The story would undergo other permutations. According to the Guatemalan press, the ambassador came up with another version: he told the Guatemalan defense minister that I was not abducted and tortured but simply "had problems with [my] nerves."

Something worth noting about Ortiz' ordeal is that First Lady Clinton had met with her and offered to help with the release of documents that Sister Ortiz was seeking.  From Julia Lieblich Pieces of Bone essay on Dianna Ortiz:

First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton caused a bigger stir when she invited Dianna into the White House for a meeting and told her that she would try to get an early release of some documents.
       And when Deputy National Security Advisor Nancy Soderberg said that the administration wanted to "underscore that people at high levels of the White House are following [her case] closely and that we are trying to get the information she is seeking as fast as we can," it looked like a stunning departure from the previous administration.
       "We're trying to get to the bottom of her case and find Alejandro if we can," she told me. "We have absolutely no reason not to believe her."

One wonders if Amselem is in bed with Fito (Alfredo Facusse - National Industry Chamber president).  Facussé came up with a plan for Honduras yesterday that everyone seems to be getting excited about.  There are reports that even Zelaya thinks it is a "good sign" even there are parts of it that Zelaya would never agree to.   But included in the plan is a call for an international military presence composed of troops from Canada, Columbia and Panama specifically - all countries with right-wing governments and (possibly) the three countries that joined with Amselen in stopping the OAS from declaring the elections unacceptable.  And troops for what?  All political principals would stand down with the agreement, so there's no problem there.  But would the people?  Hell no...and the international troops would be necessary to further repress the popular movements.  Fito's plan is a request for international welfare so someone else can pay for kicking Hondurans around.

But there was some damage control.  Hugo Llorens met with the presidential candidates at the US embassy in Tegucigalpa and reaffirmed the US committment to democracy, and at yesterdays daily press briefing:

QUESTION: I would like to come back to the statement by your ambassador to OAS yesterday about Honduras. He said that Zelaya's return to his country had been foolish and irresponsible. It seems that this statement has raised some questions, especially because Zelaya is still under siege in the embassy.
MR. CROWLEY: Who said that? I'm sorry.
QUESTION: Sorry?
MR. CROWLEY: Who made that statement yesterday?
QUESTION: Your - I mean the U.S. ambassador to the OAS.
MR. CROWLEY: Sure. Lew Amselem.
QUESTION: Lewis Amselem.
MR. CROWLEY: Mm-hmm.
QUESTION: And so is there any comment? Is there any change in the U.S. policy on this matter?
MR. CROWLEY: Not at all. Not at all. We have said throughout this process that all sides need to act constructively, avoid the kind of provocative statements or actions that would precipitate violence and inhibit the resolution of this situation. And I think our acting representative simply said with regard to statements that President Zelaya and his supporters have made that they need to act in a more constructive and positive manner. So I think what he said yesterday is fully consistent with our concern that both sides need to take constructive action, affirmative action. Both sides ultimately need to sign on to the San Jose process and begin a transition to a new government that the people of Honduras can support.
QUESTION: The words were very strong. The words were very --
MR. CROWLEY: Absolutely, absolutely. And we have said this before.

Honduras Slips Off the Edge of the World


Quite a bit of stuff to update.

U.N. suspends support of Honduran elections.

U.N. Security Council Saturday - "Hands-off the embassy, Michelleti!"

Michelleti Ultimatum Saturday - "Brazil must decide on Zelaya's status in 10 days"

Lula tells Michelleti to kiss-off: "We don't accept ultimatums from coup-plotters."

Michelleti threatens to close-down Brazilian embassy.  Clamps down on civil liberties.

Honduras detains and deports OAS Officials:

Five OAS technical representatives, three Spaniards, one Columbian, and a US citizen, who arrived at Toncontin International Airport this morning were expelled from Honduras. All four arrived this morning at 9 am. Three were expelled on a COPA airlines flight this morning at 9 am while a fourth was expelled abord a later American airlines flight. El Heraldo reports that all four were deported because they arrived without the authorization of the de facto regime. La Prensa disagrees, and says they were deported because their governments do not recognize the de facto government. A Chilean who accompanied them as part of the team was allowed to remain. All of them were deported after being held for 6 hours, on flights bound for San Jose, Costa Rica.

Yesterday Carlos Lopez Contreras, Foreign Minister of the de facto regime, had invited the OAS delegation to visit. In a press release yesterday he emphasized that the political crisis in Honduras needed a Honduran solution, and that it was no threat to international peace, that there were no international interests. None-the-less he invited the OAS delegation to visit "on a precise date", along with the support staff they require, "so that they might witness the level of advance of the internal dialog." Lopez Contreras's statement didn't specify the "precise date" so we can only guess that its not today.

As regards the "clamp down on civil liberties" - NarcoNews got the jump and translated the Michelleti Decree, released Sunday afternoon:

Decree:

Article 1. For a period of 45 days beginning with this decree's publication, the Constitutional rights of Articles 69, 72, 81 and 84, are suspended.

Article 2. The Armed Forces will support, together or separately with the National Police, when the situation requires, to execute the necessary plans to maintain the order and security of the Republic.

Article 3. The following is prohibited:

First: Freedom of transit, which will be restricted according to the parameters established by press releases broadcast on all radio and TV stations by the President of the Republic, which will be in effect in all national territory and during curfews, with the exception of cargo transport, ambulances, and urban traffic in the cities excluded in said communiqués, and medical personell and nurses that in those cities work during curfew hours.

Second: All public meetings not authorized by police or military authorities.

Third: Publication in any media, spoken, written or televised, of information that offends human dignity, public officials, or criticizes the law and the government resolutions, or any style of attack against the public order and peace. CONATEL (the Honduran communications commission), through the National Police and the Armed Forces, is authorized to suspend any radio station, television channel or cable system that does not adjust its programming to the present decree.

Article 4. It is ordered:

First: Detain all persons who are found outside of the established orders of circulation, or that in any manner are suspected by police and military authorities of damaging people or property, those that associate with the goal of committing criminal acts or that place their own lives in danger. All detainees will be read their rights, and at the same time must be brought to be booked in a police station of the country, identifying all persons detained, their motives, the hour of arrest and release from the police station, recording the physical condition of the detainee, to avoid future accusations of supposed crimes of torture.

Second: All persons detained must remain confined in the legally established detention centers.

Third: All public offices, national, state and municipal, that have been occupied by demonstrators or have persons inside of them engaging in illegal activities will be cleared.

Fourth: All Secretaries of State, decentralized institutions, municipalities and other state organisms must place themselves at the orders of the National Police and Armed Forces without any equivocation, along with all means at their disposal, for the development of these operations.

Article 5. The present Decree becomes law immediately, being duly published in the Official Daily "La Gaceta" and will be sent to the National Congress to be made law.

Ordered from the Presidential Palace in the City of Tegucigalpa, municipality of the Central District, on the 22nd of September of 2009.

ROBERTO MICHELETTI BAIN

CONSTITUTIONAL PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC

And the constitutional articles which are suspended for the next 45 days.

Article 69: Personal liberty is inviolable and only through law can it be restricted or suspended temporarily.

Article 72: The expression of thought by any media, without censorship, is free. Those who interfere with this right or through direct or indirect means restrict or impede the communication and circulation of ideas and opinions will held responsible by the law.

Article 81: Every person has the right to circulate freely, leave, enter and remain in national territory.

No one can be obligated to move from his home or residence except in special cases in accord with the law.

Article 84: No one can be arrested or detained except  through written order by competent authorities, executed through legal formalities and for motives established by law.

Notwithstanding, open delinquency can be apprehended by any person only to deliver the delinquent to the authorities.

The arrested or detained person must be informed clearly of his rights and the facts of the accusations against him, and, additionally, authorities must permit him to communicate his detention to a family member or person of his choice.

It looks pretty grim to me, but I've cried wolf before and nothing happened.  Two events are scheduled for Monday; the Legal Government's Foreign Minister, Pratricia Rodas, is scheduled to speak at the UN General Assembly, and massive demonstrations in Honduras are planned by the resistance.   I find myself hoping that the movement leaders in Honduras will order a stand-down - time to reorient to a lawless autocracy that the coup leaders have become.  But I think that many are fed up, stressed out, and inclined to an all or nothing position, which is frightening.

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