On October 20, Senator Jim DeMint stated that he had met with Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Shannon and that he was pleased that the Department of State finally understood "that it is essential that these elections [in Honduras] go forward and are recognized." As a result, DeMint said he was "anxious" to release the holds he had placed on the nominations of Arturo Valenzuela to be assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs and Thomas Shannon, the present assistant secretary, to be ambassador to Brazil.
As Shannon well knew, this impending change of policy would give away the principal leverage the United States could bring to bear to persuade the de facto government to permit the prompt return of President Zelaya.
On October 28, a diplomatic delegation headed by Thomas Shannon arrived in Tegucigalpa to jump start the negotiations between the de facto regime and President Mel Zelaya. At a press conference, Shannon stated that the return of Zelaya is "central" to the concerns of the United States and the international community. Yet, he refused to say that his return was an essential component to any deal.
It is legitimate to infer that at this point de facto president Roberto Micheletti knew that the State Department had made a commitment to Senator DeMint that the United States would recognize the November 29 elections as valid regardless of whether Zelaya had been returned to office.
Under these circumstances any journeyman diplomat would immediately recognize that the only chance to achieve a lasting agreement would be to inform President Zelaya of the change in U.S. policy. Armed with this information, Zelaya could have insisted on a date certain for his return. With the backing of the U.S. delegation, there would have been a fighting chance that Micheletti would have agreed because time was running out.
It was, of course, possible, even probable, that negotiations would have failed, but that result would have been infinitely preferable to the charade where Zelaya signed an agreement under the illusion the United States would ensure his prompt reinstatement to power.
The result of this cynical and amateurish diplomacy could hardly have been worse.
The secretary of state triumphantly announces a breakthrough in Honduras. Micheletti responds that he has not yet agreed to the restitution of the elected president, and a deceived Zelaya states the agreement is dead. The diplomatic fiasco is complete.
Late Saturday Manuel Zelaya read a five page letter sent to President Obama:
In a letter addressed to President Barack Obama, Zelaya also repeated his accusation that Washington reversed its stance on whether the Nov. 29 vote should be considered legitimate if he was not in office.
"As the elected president of the Honduran people, I reaffirm my position that starting today, no matter what, I will not accept any agreement on returning to the presidency of the republic to cover up this coup d'etat," Zelaya said, reading from the letter on Globo radio.
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"The future that you show us today by changing your position in the case of Honduras, and thus favoring the abusive intervention of the military castes ... is nothing more than the downfall of freedom and contempt for human dignity," Zelaya said in the letter to Obama. "It is a new war against the processes of social and democratic reforms so necessary in Honduras."
Perhaps more importantly, Zelaya called for an election boycott, joining the call for the same by the Resistance Front. Internationally, it looks today that the US will be the only nation that recognizes the legitimacy of the November 29 elections. This represents a major policy failure of the Obama Administration - and the problem, I think, is allowing Republicans to dictate foreign policy through the aegis of political blackmail.
Honduras shows Latin America's 'strongman' is Jim DeMint - so gloats Fox's James Rosen:
Sen. Jim DeMint, a South Carolina Republican known for his efforts to influence domestic immigration and health-care issues, has scored a foreign-policy coup by helping to compel the Obama administration to shift its stance on strife-ridden Honduras.
After demanding for months that deposed Honduran President Mel Zelaya be restored to power, senior State Department officials now say they'll accept the outcome of Nov. 29 elections in the Central American country even if Zelaya doesn't reclaim his post.
"We support the elections process there," State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said Thursday. "We have provided technical assistance. ... These elections will be important to restoring Democratic and constitutional order in Honduras."
That position is a marked change from the tough stance President Barack Obama took in the days following the June 28 removal of Zelaya, when Honduran soldiers launched a dawn raid and whisked him away in his pajamas.
"We believe that the coup was not legal and that President Zelaya remains the democratically elected president there," Obama said the day after Zelaya's ouster.
And the kick in the ass is that negotiating with Republicans in congress is as fruitless as negotiating with Michelleti in Honduras: While Clinton did get the confirmation of Valenzuela, Shannon's confirmation was reblocked my another Republican the minute DeMint lifted his block. Now it looks like Florida's Cubans, who don't like Thomas Shannon because of his position on normalizing relations with Cuba, will have to vet Shannon for an unspecified period before the new block is lifted. It brings to mind a new phrase that's floating around: Maximum Feasible Obstruction (M(o)FO) - thank you, Matt Yglesias. Here's the score...Hillary want's to send Shannon to Brazil as Ambassador - a very important post. Currently Shannon's title is US Assistant Secretary for the Western Hemisphere. But Arturo Valenzuela was allowed by DeMint to be confirmed to replace Shannon as US Assistant Secretary for the Western Hemisphere. In other words, Valenzuela cannot assume his new appointment until Thomas Shannon is confirmed. In other other words, both positions remained de facto blocked even though Secretary Clinton caved into DeMint's demands re: Honduras.
This is serious stuff, folks. There are some very hot pending issues brewing in Latin America, and the Obama Administration has lost leadership and credibility among Latin American nations and people. On the home front, the Republicans have shown skill, manipulative diligence, and political ruthlessness against an administration that has only shown ineptness.
The result of this cynical and amateurish diplomacy could hardly have been worse. - Robert White.
I'm knowledged challenged about these kinds of thing - I just want to map out the complexity of military hardware sales between nations, especially how that "tangled web" plays out in the context of international diplomatic missions.Dassault designed and builds the Rafale fighter-bomber which France is prepared to sell to Brazil.
On signing a major military hardware agreement with French president Sarkozy, Lula da Silva said he was inclined to choose the French fighter Rafale because France is prepared to transfer sensitive technology and would also allow them to be assembled in Brazil.
BiographyThomas A. Shannon, Jr.
Assistant Secretary
Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs
Term of Appointment: 10/07/2005 to presentThomas A. Shannon was confirmed as Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs on October 7, 2005.
A career member of the Senior Foreign Service, Mr. Shannon served as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Western Hemisphere Affairs at the National Security Council from 2003 to 2005. From 2002 to 2003, he was Deputy Assistant Secretary of Western Hemisphere Affairs at the Department of State, where he was Director of Andean Affairs from 2001 to 2002. He was U.S. Deputy Permanent Representative to the Organization of American States (OAS) from 2000 to 2001.
He served as Director for Inter-American Affairs at the National Security Council from 1999 to 2000; as Political Counselor at the U.S. Embassy in Caracas, Venezuela from 1996 to 1999; and as Regional Labor Attaché at the U.S. Consulate General in Johannesburg, South Africa from 1992 to 1996.
During his career as a Foreign Service Officer, Mr. Shannon also served as Special Assistant to the Ambassador at the U.S. Embassy in Brasilia, Brazil from 1989 to 1992; as Country Officer for Cameroon, Gabon, and Sao Tome and Principe from 1987 to 1989; and as the Consular/Political Rotational Officer at the U.S. Embassy in Guatemala City, Guatemala from 1984 to 1986.
Mr. Shannon holds a Doctorate and a Master's degree in politics from Oxford University, and a B.A. in Government and Philosophy from the College of William and Mary.
Zelaya pronounced the week-old agreement a "dead letter" after de facto rulers formed a new "reconciliation government" without Zelaya's participation, as the deal had required.The existentialist question is who punked who? That will be hashed out in days to come, but right now the charges are being tossed around. Did the Obama Administration abandon its former reinstate Zelaya position? It sure looks like it. If it is true, then the meaning is that the over-arching policy position, that of discouraging and preventing coup d'etats from succeeding, has been compromised for a make it go away solution to the political crisis in Honduras.
"The accord is a dead letter," Zelaya said on a Honduran radio station. "There is no sense in continuing to fool the Honduran people."
Under the accord, Zelaya and the man who replaced him, Roberto Micheletti, agreed to let the Honduran Congress vote on whether to reinstate Zelaya to office, as the international community has been demanding. But congressional leaders, who backed the coup, have yet to call a vote.
The plan also required the formation by Thursday of a temporary "unity Cabinet" with representatives of both sides.
Just before midnight Thursday, Micheletti announced a new government that did not include Zelaya or any of his supporters.
Point 9 means that the Supreme Court and the Congress must agree to the accord. As I understand it, since the Supreme Court has already ruled that it would not accept Zelaya's restitution, the SC will now only decide if Congress can ratify the accord. What are the chances of the Honduran congress agreeing to reinstate Zelaya? I think it is good, perhaps over 50%. According the the election polls, National Party candidate Pepe Lobos is leading Liberal Party candidate Elvin Santos by a significant margin. While the Liberal Party is the majority party in Congress, the National Party is a significant minority. If congress rejects reinstating Zelaya, the accord fails, and the election will not be recognized by the international community, including (maybe) the US. Additionally, Zelaya is also supported by a minority of Liberal Party congress members - 25 or 30. That doesn't leave that many votes to reject the accord. We shall see - the vote could take place today.1- La creación de un gobierno de unidad y reconciliación nacional.
The creation of a national reconciliation and unity government.
2- Rechazo a la amnistía delitos políticos, y demoratoria de acciones procesos penales.
Rejection of an amnesty for political crimes, and delay for penal processes.
3- Renunciar a una convocatoria a una Asamblea Nacional Constituyente o a reformar la Constitución en los artículos constitucionales irreformables.
Reject the convocation of a National Constitutional Assembly or reform of the unreformable constitutional articles.
4. Reconocer y apoyar las elecciones generales y el traspaso de Gobierno.
Recognize and support the general elections and the transfer of Government.
5- La transferencia de autoridad sobre las Fuerzas Armadas al Tribunal Supremo Electoral.
Transfer of authority over the Armed Forces to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal.
6- La creación de una comisión de verificación para hacer cumplir los puntos del acuerdo.
Creation of a commission of verification to ensure compliance with the points of the accord.
7- La formación de una comisión de la verdad para investigar los sucesos antes, durante y después del 28 de junio de 2009.
The formation of a truth commission to investigate the events before, during, and after June 28, 2009.
8- Solicitar a la comunidad internacional la normalización de las relaciones internacionales con nuestro país.
9. Apoyar una propuesta que permite un voto en el Congreso Nacional con una previa opinión de la Corte Suprema de Justicia para retrotraer todo el Poder Ejecutivo previo al 28 de junio.Request from the international community normalization of international relations with our country.
Support the proposal that permits a vote in the National Congress with previous judgment from the Supreme Court to make the Executive Power retroactive to before June 28.
"I cannot give details of how this will be achieved, but Honduras cannot remain in this situation," Zelaya told the local broadcasting station Radio Globo.That cast the mystery for me: what had happened between the doom and gloom of Friday's announcement that 14 days of negotiations had failed?
The new effort began on Friday, officials said, when Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton made calls to both Mr. Zelaya and the head of the de facto government, Roberto Micheletti.
In those calls, officials said, Mrs. Clinton told the two leaders that there was "increasing frustration" in the United States and Latin America over the deteriorating situation in Honduras, the hemisphere's third-poorest country. She reserved her toughest comments for Mr. Micheletti, officials said, because the United States believes he has been "the most difficult."
"During the call, he spent a lot of time talking about the past," a State Department official said. "She wanted to talk about the future."
Among other things, Mr. Micheletti has refused to accept any political deal that would allow Mr. Zelaya to return to power. He has demanded that the international community declare Mr. Zelaya's ouster a legal transition of power. And, with the help of lobbyists in Washington, he has tried to pressure the United States to agree to recognize the outcome of presidential elections scheduled for next month.
Most Latin American countries have said that they would not recognize the elections unless Mr. Zelaya, who is holed up in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa, is first restored to power. The United States has threatened to do the same.
A senior administration official said Mrs. Clinton spoke to Mr. Micheletti on Friday for more than half an hour.
"The purpose was to remind him there were two pathways to the elections," the official said, "one where Honduras goes by itself and the other where it goes with broad support from the international community."
My sneaking suspicion is that this is the source of Zelaya's upbeat optimism that the crisis will be settled this week. However, Zelaya's "certainty" must derive from his conversation with Secretary Clinton - namely she gave him information about the leverage the U.S. negotiation team will use in Tegucigalpa this week. The team leader is Assistant Secretary of State Thomas A. Shannon - whose confirmation as United States Ambassador to Brazil has been blocked in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee by Jim Demento, er, Demint.
Wed, 10/21/2009 - 16:42 -- APBrazil, at Organization of American States, Accuses Honduran Coup Regime of "Torture"
For Immediate Release: October 21, 2009
Contact: Dan Beeton, 202-239-1460Washington, D.C. - The Brazilian government's Ambassador to the Organization of American States, Ruy de Lima Casaes e Silva, accused the Honduran coup regime of "torture" in its ongoing attacks on Brazil's embassy in Honduras.
Ambassador Lima Casaes described an elaborate series of measures taken by the Honduran security forces surrounding the Embassy to cause sleep deprivation among those inside. These included ultra-high-intensity lights, high-decibel sound, and other measures.
He also mentioned other attacks including tear gas and attacks with unidentified gases, and other forms of harassment and violations of international law including restricting food deliveries.
All of these are serious violations of international law, and have already been condemned on September 25 by the Security Council of the United Nations. Today OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza also condemned the ongoing "harassment" of the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa.
"These ongoing violations indicate that the coup regime in Honduras has no interest in dialogue or a mediated solution to the Honduran crisis," said Mark Weisbrot, Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. "The also indicate an astounding lack of regard for international law, unusual even in the history of military coups over the last century."
Yes, the "negotiations" have been going on in Tegucigalpa. At one point last week both negotiating teams agreed on all points of the San Jose Accord, including Zelaya's reinstatement as President. By later the same day, Michelleti nixed it - and said that the Supreme Court should decide (the court already decided last month...no Zelaya.) MSM is spreading the word that "both sides are holding up any agreement" but the OAS President Insulza said yesterday that it was the coup leaders who were holding progress up:
Tuesday, October 20, 2009And What's Happening at State?
Insulza Points A Finger
El Universal, a Venezuelan newspaper, citing a EFE wire story, reports this evening that José Miguel Insulza, OAS President, lamented that the de facto government of Honduras introduced a proposal that was not in conformance with the San Jose Accord and in this manner, "made impossible a good result" in the dialogue to resolve the crisis in Honduras.
"One of the parties presented a proposal that included a point not included in the San Jose Accord, which seeks to force the legitimacy of what happened on June 28. This act make a good outcome in the dialog impossible."
But there are growing signs that the U.S. may be willing to abandon that condition. A number of well-placed sources in Honduras and the U.S. tell TIME that officials in the State Department and the U.S.'s OAS delegation have informed them that the Obama Administration is mulling ways to legitimize the election should talks fail to restore Zelaya in time. "We're suddenly hearing from them that the one may no longer be a [precondition] for the other," says a Western diplomat in the Honduran capital of Tegucigalpa, where Zelaya is currently holed up in the Brazilian embassy.I think the "growing signs" was Lewis Amselem's wild-card movida at the OAS a few weeks ago where he joined Canada, Panama and Columbia in blocking an OAS vote on Hondurasl, during which meeting he blurted out words to the effect that the US may recognize the elections if Zelaya is not reinstated. This isn't State's policy, and it looks like Secretary Clinton may have bush-moles problems. This happened around the same time as those GOPeers went to Honduras to conduct their own foreign policy, against the policy of the US Government. At any rate, we should note that State pulled yet more visas from Hondurans who support the coup d'etat yesterday. Another shot across the bow: agree to the San Jose Accord or else.
Executive Agreement Number 124-2009
The Constitutional President of the Republic
Considering: That the human person is the supreme end of society, the state, and all have the obligation to respect, protect, and conform to article 62 of our Constitution, the rights of every person are limited by the rights of the others, for the security of all, and for the just demands of the general good and the developing democracy.
Considering: That the President of the Republic and the Council of Ministers have answered, through the organs of defense and security of the State, and other entities, the deterioration which we have begun to have, the pretense of protected goods, by social communications media, systematically denaturing the objective of the Democratic State of law, and generating a regime of social anarchy encouraging vandalism up to the point of attempting against the social peace and the security of the state, and leaving incalculable effects on the national economy.
Considering: That it is an urgent necessity to preserve the public order and peace in all the national territory, to guarantee life and the well being of all people residing in the national territory, with the ultimate end, guaranteed by our constitution of the Republic, and with the democratic system, fundamental pillar of our society.
Considering: That it corresponds to the State to guarantee liberty of though and expression, but when the communications media attempt against the national security, the public order, the health, or the public morals, it makes it imperative to execute regulations founded in the existing legislation in conformity with the INTERAMERICAN CONVENTION ON HUMAN RIGHTS.
Wherefore
The constitutional President of the republic, in conformance with the articles 245 points 7 and 16, 248 and 252 of the constitution of the Republic, articles 11, 17, 18, 20, 22 number 10, 24, 116, and 117 of the General Law of Public Administration and the rest that the constitution and the laws confer.Agree
Article 1: Declare, for reasons of national security and in application of the commands in Article 28 of the case law of the Telecommunications sector, specifically that referring to the use of the radio spectrum in the national territory, apply the measures which in law correspond to those that infringe the law.Article 2: Instruct for legal effects corresponding to the National Commission of Telecommunications (CONATEL) and other competent organs of the state, that they proceed in conformity with their laws, to protect the national security in the function of the larger interests of the country, the good, the physical and moral integrity of humans. The state, as owner of the radio spectrum can revoke or cancel the use of approved titles (licenses and permissions) authorized by CONATEL to operators of broadcast speech and television that emit messages that generate national abhorrence, pretend to be protected speech, and also call for a regimen of social anarchy against the democratic state that attempts against the social peace and human rights.
Article 3: Remit to the National Commission of Telecommunications (CONATEL), the communications contained, the reports emitted by the defense and security forces and other parts of the government for its fulfillment.
Article 4: The present accord is executed immediately and should be published in the official newspaper La Gaceta.
Given in the city of Tegucigalpa, municipality of the Central District the 5th of October of 2009.
Communicate and Publish this.
Robert Micheletti
Constitutional President of the Republic
Oscar Raul Matute Cruz
Secretary of State[Dated Monday, October 5th, "effective immediately"]
Michetteli had just announced the recension of his previous decree due to international and domestic pressure. But he has continued acting as if the previous decree was still in effect, stating that it won't stop until the recension is published in La Gaceta ( which is like our "Congressional Record.) He stated that the printing press was broken, so he was compelled to continue denying Honduran people their basic constitutional guaranteed liberties.
Meanwhile, Radio Globo is broadcasting clandestinely on Internet Radio from a secret location in Honduras. You should be able to hear it at this link. If you understand Spanish, you're in luck. Actually, since the Gestapo shut down it's radio operation and they went underground, their numbers have grown enormously. 400K listeners now, 100K in Honduras.
Channel 36 owner, Esdras Amado Lopez, is now in hiding after the Gestapo shut down his TV station. He has received death threats, and believes that there is a warrant out for his arrest.
This is the reason the international community, including the US and OAS, feel that the November elections cannot be considered legitimate. Michelleti keeps exacerbating the situation with his repression of civil freedoms, while rhetorically giving voice for his hope for free elections next month. He has stated that if there is no president elect to take office in January, he will remain as president for the next two years. Looks to me like this is his power play, folks - whine about elections while doing everything he can to make sure elections will not take place in Honduras.
Are you in favor of the June 28 coup d'etat against President Manuel Zelaya Rosales?
In favor of coup: 17.4 percent
Opposed to coup: 52.7 percent
No response: 29.9 percent
Should Micheletti stay in power or leave the current government?
Micheletti should stay: 22.2 percent
Micheletti should leave: 60.1 percent
No response: 17.7 percent
Do you support the return of Manuel Zelaya Rosales to the Presidency of the Republic?
Support Zelaya's return: 51.6 percent
Oppose Zelaya's return: 33 percent
No response: 15.4 percent
Do you agree or disagree with the marches by the national resistance throughout the country against the coup d'etat?
Support the marches: 45.5 percent
Oppose the marches: 41.8 percent
No response: 12.7 percent
Do you think that the Armed Forces and National Police are engaging in repression or not against the National Resistance?
Yes, there is repression: 54.5 percent
No, there is not repression: 21.8 percent
No response: 23.7 percent
Do you agree with the repression or condemn the repression that the Armed Forces and National Police have engaged in against the National Resistance?
Against repression: 65.4 percent
For repression: 8 percent
No response: 26.4 percent
Should the general elections organized by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal for November 19 happen even if the institutional crisis isn't resolved?
Yes, have elections: 66.4 percent
No, don't have them: 23.8 percent
No response: 2.9 percent
There are more questions at the link. There is also an unverified poll that asked the question about the 4th Ballot (to convene a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution) with 72% polling "yes." I'm waiting for something solid on this.
Orellana, in addition to his most recent service in government, has an illustrious history as a Professor of Constitutional Law and a member of various Honduran governments. He holds a PhD in law, and was from 1976 a Professor of Law at the National University of Honduras (UNAH). His government service began in 1982, when constitutionality was restored to Honduras; was Magistrate in the Court of Appeals of "lo Contencioso Administrativo" (the courts that ruled against Zelaya in his attempts to hold a poll) from 1988-1994; was the Attorney General of the country from 1994 to 1999; served as Honduras' ambassador to the UN, was a cabinet minister in multiple administrations, is the recipient of many honors, and the author of legal texts as well as research articles.Orellana has written numerous articles and letters criticizing the Coup D'etat since June 28, and the latest is a very comprehensive analysis of the legal issues surrounding the coup, addressing both Zelaya's actions and that of the coup leaders with respect to the Honduran constitution and law.
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