Today is SUPER MEDIOCRE TUESDAY!    If you've been listening to cable news...this is as important an election as the Presidential election in 2008.   On this date, the future of the country will be decided...Republicans will either begin their resurgence or else truly become the GOP (GRAND OBLIVIOUS PARTY).    The truth is that this is election will have little effect in reality but is important for the direction that it takes each party and the lessons each side learns today.

There are many smaller races all across the country but the ones to watch boil down to only four.    And you can be sure that regardless of who wins or loses...the spin from both sides will be incredible to watch.   But remember, who wins & who loses is relatively unimportant.   What is important is WHY they win or lose and by how much.

Here are some things to consider about the BIG FOUR:

1)       THE VIRGINIA GOVERNOR'S RACE:    Bob McDonnell (R) holds a commanding lead over Creigh Deeds (D) in all of the polling.    Conservatives point to this race as an indicator that Independents are "over" Obama and are looking to return to the Conservative fold.

There has been a lot of hand-wringing on the Left over this race.   But the simple fact is that since 1977, the party in power in the White House has ALWAYS lost the Virginia Governorship.  What is important, is how many African-Americans and how many young people actually show up to vote.   A low voter turnout in these two groups will be a real red flag to Democrats that their voter turnout efforts HAVE to improve before the 2010 mid-terms.   

Republicans need to closely examine this race to see if a Center-Right Republican CAN win elections.   McDonnell has run a very good race, claiming the expertise on both taxes and the economy.  He has garnered bi-partisan support (including the endorsement of several Democrats) and is generally perceived as a centrist candidate.   It should also be noted that since he cut a deal with his only potential primary opponent, he has been able to avoid the pitfall of having to appeal to the Far Right base of the Republican Party....which is why he has been able to manage the perception that he is a centrist.   The real question for Republicans is would he have been able to keep that perception if he had to contend with a hard fought primary composed ONLY of the Republican base?   Are tea baggers just another name for "spoilers"?

2)      THE NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR'S RACE:   A real toss-up between Jon Corzine (D) and Chris Christie (R).   The latest polls are too close to call and well within the margin of era but Christie (R) has been steadily gaining over the weekend.   Corzine's approval numbers are extremely low and reflect the general state of the Jersey economy.    President Obama has campaigned with Corzine but it has done little to increase his polling numbers....the real question regarding the President is will his influence affect voter turnout?

The wildcard in this race is what will be the influence of ultra-conservative Chris Dagget (I).  He could be the spoiler for Christie by drawing enough of the far Right Republican vote to allow Corzine a win without reaching the 50% mark.   

And as in Virginia, the fact that Republicans win should be expected based upon past history.   Since 1989 the party holding the White House has lost the New Jersey gubernatorial race.   So Christie winning would not be a great surprise...but Christie losing should sound alarms to Republicans about the danger of splitting your vote and serve as a warning for ideological battles in future primaries.

3)      NY-23 Congressional Race:   This was the circus act of the election season!   It is also the LEAST important race of the day but it is also the one that will have the most far-reaching impact on how the Republicans campaign in 2010.

Dede Scozzafava (R) has already dropped out of the race.   She has also endorsed the Democratic candidate, Bill Owens.    There was wide spread speculation that for the first time since the 1800's, NY-23 would go to the Democrat as opposed to the Republican candidate.   The reason for this was the independent candidacy of Doug Hoffman who was badly splitting the Republican vote.   With Scozzafava out of the race, Hoffman has steadily increased his polling numbers but as of this weekend, 1 in 5 voters are currently undecided.   Anything could happen.

The concern for Republicans is what they have had to do to get Hoffman the win.   Hoffman is distinguished from other candidates because he can't vote for himself....because he doesn't live in the district.    He entered the race on the basis of ideology.  Local papers have complained that he has no knowledge of local issues but on the up side:  he is endorsed by Sarah Palin as a true blue conservative.  Scozzafava was a moderate Republican who supports gay marriage and abortion rights.   Dirty campaign tactics convinced many voters that she was endorsed by ACORN and the money to fight her came from all over the country.  Seriously, 90% of Hoffman's money came from sources outside of NY-23.  Tea Party supporters have been coming in from all over the country to target a door-to-door "Get Out the Vote" campaign.    The question if it works is are there enough members of the Tea Party to replicate this same high intensity campaign in all districts across the country as opposed to just one in 2010.    The second important question is will these same tactics work in an area that has NOT voted consistently Republican for 120 years?

4)      MAINE'S PROPOSITION 1:   This in my mind is THE most important election to watch.    It has nothing to do with the economy but instead deals with a social issue.    So a bad economy is not going to have any effect on the vote, which should give a better idea of the general mood of the electorate.  It puts to a vote as a ballot issue, the repeal of a law signed by the state legislature allowing gay marriage in the state of Maine.    If Proposition 1 fails, Democrats can take some solace that as long as the economy and unemployment improve by 2010, they are still in good shape.   If Proposition 1 passes, Democrats are going to have to work very hard over the next year to prove to the electorate that they are more than a party of big spenders.

None of these elections are make or break deals for either party.    Democrats could lose them all and still come in strong in 2010.   The same can be said for Republicans.   What will be important is how each side interprets the results and then acts on those interpretations in preparation for 2010.   So stop thinking of this as SUPER TUESDAY!    It's really only a mediocre read on how to approach next year's elections for both sides.