The Coming Battles
This may well be premature, but I am assuming Obama will be our next president and how joyful that will be.
But after the exhilaration and emotion recedes, then there is surely coming a titanic battle with the Republican Party. As I wrote in my Fat Man in the Doorway blog a while back, the modern GOP is interested in only one thing, keeping our government from functioning in the way it was designed to. As Bill Clinton found to his sorrow, the Republicans are quite ready to hamstring government and any democratic administration when it is in their power to do so.
And it is in their power to do to Barack Obama what they did to Bill Clinton-- put the administration on the defensive with constant legal attacks. They don't need the House to harass the next president, nor is impeachment the only weapon in their armory.
The coming Obama administration had better be ready for every kind of harassment and obstructionism from the Republican Party. We are all hoping for a new Camelot, a new bright day in American politics, of reaching across the aisle and bipartisan comity. But what we are far more likely to see is a barrage of assaults on the administration, originating from all around the country and avidly reported by a controversy-hungry media.
My belief is that Barack Obama is uniquely able to handle such battles and that the GOP will fail; but forewarned is forearmed and we cannot trust the Republican Party, so haughty and over-mighty in ascendancy, to grasp any olive branch of peace we extend to them once we have dethroned them. They are Strife personified and the next years will show they cannot change their nature.
Or such is my opinion and fear.
But after the exhilaration and emotion recedes, then there is surely coming a titanic battle with the Republican Party. As I wrote in my Fat Man in the Doorway blog a while back, the modern GOP is interested in only one thing, keeping our government from functioning in the way it was designed to. As Bill Clinton found to his sorrow, the Republicans are quite ready to hamstring government and any democratic administration when it is in their power to do so.
And it is in their power to do to Barack Obama what they did to Bill Clinton-- put the administration on the defensive with constant legal attacks. They don't need the House to harass the next president, nor is impeachment the only weapon in their armory.
The coming Obama administration had better be ready for every kind of harassment and obstructionism from the Republican Party. We are all hoping for a new Camelot, a new bright day in American politics, of reaching across the aisle and bipartisan comity. But what we are far more likely to see is a barrage of assaults on the administration, originating from all around the country and avidly reported by a controversy-hungry media.
My belief is that Barack Obama is uniquely able to handle such battles and that the GOP will fail; but forewarned is forearmed and we cannot trust the Republican Party, so haughty and over-mighty in ascendancy, to grasp any olive branch of peace we extend to them once we have dethroned them. They are Strife personified and the next years will show they cannot change their nature.
Or such is my opinion and fear.
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Let's hope moderate heads prevail and the Michelle Bachmann's of the world grow ever smaller.
October 17, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't we just fucking kill them all??
October 17, 2008 10:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
We mustn't talk like that. It demeans us. Sows seeds which are not helpful. We're angry, of course, but we have to channel that anger in constructive ways.
October 18, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
He will just ignore attacks. Unlike Clinton, he will not have substantial opposition in Congress. He has the endorsement of the major papers and other media. His challenge will be the rest of reality.
Rush will blather away more inconsequentially, barring the possibility of him inspiring threats that become serious.
October 17, 2008 10:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tom,
I think verbal attacks will roll right off. Barack can handle any such and make the issuer look small in the process.
I sometimes feel that this beloved country of ours is, in fact, on the verge of becoming ungovernable...that one powerful faction hates the other with such deep venom, that they are willing to take down the country rather than see the ideals of their opponents actualized.
October 17, 2008 10:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
But isn't that what the other side thinks about us?
October 18, 2008 12:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, rbtg, I thought of that also even while I was writing my blog, but I kept on going because even though both sides may view each other similarly, it is my belief that the real threats to governance per se, come from the GOP side. They are enemies of government at least of the kind that interposes its power between private economic forces and the welfare of the people.
Of this philosophical bent, they have been more prone to shutting things down or threatening to since Newt's days, at least in my own opinion.
Witness how many Clinton judicial nominations got lost in the process. How the whole second Clinton administration was sabotauged. How they derailed any constructive legislation in the last eight years of the Bush/Cheney co-presidency. What did we see? The BAPCPA, the MCA, FISA II? I really believe the blame falls more squarely on them than "us".
But I am a partisan, in my partisan moments, and can't claim to be objective.
I am willing to bet that if there were such a thing as "disinterested" academics: say political scientists and/or political economists from a "neutral" country who studied our internal affairs here since 1990, they might come down to similar conclusions.
October 18, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Coralsea... what can I say?
Orlando, I think that it is likely the GOP will become more extreme as they contract in size and power. It is like an ice skater tucking her arms in when she spins....it speeds her up. As the GOP shrinks under the weight of demographic changes in America, they will become increasingly more extreme....laager Afrikaans, if you will. The nativist/tribalist base of the GOP is emerging into the light and it is pretty ugly...
October 17, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
More extreme and as a result, hopefully, less viable. The lunatic fringe.
October 17, 2008 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Republican party is in turmoil and will remain in turmoil for some time, barring huge oversights by the Dems, or terrible mismanagement of the crises currently on our collective plate. They will devote the next 10 to 20 years to reinventing their brand. As such IMO the lunatic fringe will be even more marginalized as the Republicans still capable of ideation strive to bring the party more toward the center. The fringe will certainly not disappear, but as Orlando says, the will certainly be less viable, perhaps moving to one room shacks in Montana or Alaska to work on their own manifestos.
October 18, 2008 1:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's the anti-Bush conservatives that are going to be the problem. They've got the passion, still (remember the House GOP conservative team holding up the Nancy Pelosi speech right after the bailout plan failed and saying it was the reason? They were already starting up the program. It's going to be the Obama bailout plan, it was all Obama's idea to socialize the system, bailout the cheaters, whatever. That's going be standard behavior.)
And they've never had much use for McCain, I think they'd much rather see him lose and be back to the minority side attacking a Dem majority for all the problems inherited from Bush than to have to labor under a President McCain. Now Sarah Palin, that's another story, she's an up and comer for them, I bet you're going to see her a lot more interested in Congressional issues and vice versa.
I recommend watching for clues of what they are going to be up to here:
http://newt.org/
(Hey! He has what I just said as the headline on his site right now! It says: The Reid-Pelosi-Obama (RePO) Team Vs. The Rest of America. I swear it, I didn't cheat, I didn't see that until after I wrote my first paragraph.)
Also, I recommend the comments discussion in the following if you want ideas and input about where the GOP might be heading:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/rebuilding_the_republican_part.php#
October 17, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
P.S. I think it was reality, the way things were heading, before Obama even took the national stage, that the Republican party was going to be reduced to being the "passionate conservative" party. (All Karl Rove's dreams of "big tent" down the drain.) I was just looking at some old blog posts of mine (now that they have finally loaded them back,) and I found this from April, 2006:
The Purple Majority?
April 27, 2006, 2:44PM
Introducing the Purple Party
It behooves to keep in mind that voter registration as Indpendent is growing by leaps and bounds in the country. As the article says, there are more of them than loyalists to either party. From his writings, I think this is something that is always foremost in Obama's mind, but I can't say I think the same of many writers in the blogosphere, who seem to think it's all about the Democratic party reviving. Well, yeah, if it changes and doesn't fight Obama's" cross-the-aisle", purple over red v. blue ideals. He's going to try to rule by majority, I have been convinced that is a strong desire of his, and with that, lots of liberals/progressives better get used to the idea that they are going to have to continue to compromise on a lot of things. In order to do that, he's going to have to call out both liberal and conservative goals as too extreme at times. The purple party is going to running this country, or at least attempting to.
October 17, 2008 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another thought comes to mind to clarify and tie together what I was saying above. I can see a Gingrich coalition making an big issue of some Pelosi Reid this or that iniative or action that actually resounds with the majority public as being against it, whatever it is, they'll find something, make a big cri de coeur about it. If it's the case that it truly does resound with the majority, a President Obama, I'm pretty damn sure, would distance himself from them on it in a New York minute. You know how some people used to complain that Bill Clinton governed by polls, finger to the wind to see which way the populace it going? I think Obama's going to do a lot of that, too. I think he'll do it because he really believes it's the right thing for a president to do, that constituionally, the president is supposed to represent the majority's wishes, that the courts are for protecting the minority.
October 17, 2008 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
astute. I predicated my forecast on the assumption that a Democratic House would try to get some liberal legislation passed and the GOPs reaction to same.
But if Obama can wield the same kind of tight party discipline that the Bush/Cheney co-presidency had over its congressional faction for at least five years, then we might never see any cataclysmic confrontations, because of the dynamic you relate.
October 17, 2008 11:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that makes me sad. But its better than gridlock.
October 17, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
They were already starting up the program. It's going to be the Obama bailout plan, it was all Obama's idea to socialize the system, bailout the cheaters, whatever. That's going be standard behavior.)
That is where Dems. traditionally suck - at the messaging game. The Dems. must consistently remind the country that all of the problems were created by the Bush administration. It's the fault of the Dems. that the GOP has before been able to revise history.
October 18, 2008 12:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton came to power as a centrist right in the middle of the Republican ascendancy, and did so by taking a majority (narrowly) of white Independents*. In 1988, the white Indies had gone overwhelmingly to the Republicans. This combo created the fear that Republicans could be out of the White House for a very long time if Clinton wasn't brought down. But most of all, Republicans still had plenty of credibility during the Clinton years.
If Democrats somehow manage to win both houses of Congress and the White House this time around, the remaining Republicans will be so far from power that they may have to beg Rush for an interview, at least in the beginning. :-) Also, their traditional tricks with social issues are bound to flop until the economy gets better, and they have narrowed their wiggle room in that arena already. There is a much bigger Republican credibility gap now than in 1992-1996, both with their own donors and among Independents. It's probably safe to say that the right now the Republican party looks a lot like Joe the Plumber -- the one with the name of Sam and without a license to plumb.
Having said all that, I agree with you that the Republicans will try every dirty trick that they have used in the past. I think the odds of their success are lagging behind Wall Street's and Baghdad's for awhile (I hope).
(*Taken from a website rec'd by artappraiser.)
October 18, 2008 7:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent post by the way, and wholeheartedly recommended.
Personally, however, I'm more concerned about the coming fight among Democrats. Those of us in or affiliated the trade union movemement taste the enactment of the Employee Free Choice Act ("EFCA"). Senator Obama and 46 other members of the Senate have endorsed it. But, already, folks like George McGovern are engaged in a campaign to defeat it, based on opposition to "card checks" as a basis for certifying a union as opposed to the imaginary benefits of "secret ballot" elections in the American workplace. Friends, in the American workplace, it is more than easy to bust unions and frighten workers with threats or worse--without recourse--to the point where there are no such thing as a free and fair secret ballot election in the American workplace.
EFCA shall be a huge test for the real intra-party unity we will need to preserve. It will make or break our coalition. Think long and hard about taking a stand against what the Republicans love to refer to as Big Labor. We ain't so big but we ain't going away so quickly either. We are helping to elect Senator Obama as no other constituent group in this country and we are not going to forget that.
The Republicans will eventually, after the blood-letting, unite in hating a Democratic-run government as you suggest. It is we who will have to make the tough decisions about what it will take to keep us united. I love George McGovern, but I hope he doesn't start us down the wrong track one more time. Labor has expectations and, yes, those expectations are Big.
October 18, 2008 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
My reply to you was sited wrong and I didn't proof it so caveat lector.
Anyway, as one union man to another, the bill is under relentless assault here, even in our Portland liberal bastion. TV ads, radio blurbs even on our liberal talk radio, KPOJ. The US Chamber of Commerce, one of the most dire regressive forces in the country, will spend no little capital to defeat this measure I predict.
Thank you for your rec.
October 18, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bruce, I hadn't thought about this before, but I wonder if the labor movement will get caught up in the wave of anti-corporate sentiment that is bubbling up as a result of the economic mess that we're in and all the attention on the largess at the top. It could take a very interesting and positive turn.
October 18, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Orlando:
I hope you're right, and I hope that the arguments that Labor makes on behalf of EFCA are better than the proofreading I performed on my piece above.
The key is, I think, that the anti-corporate sentiment about which you speak does not get meshed into a sentiment that is anti-everything-that-was, including Big Labor. It is one of those things that concerns a former Clinton supporter like me, that the compelling post-partisan essence of Senator Obama's monumental march to the White House could lead to too many of his backers all too ready to throw the babies, even the Big ones, out with the bathwater.
October 18, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Bslev and exactly.
Purple rule may be all too willing to compromise on things that should not be compromised, for the sake of comity. FISA II may have been a omen of things to come.
I am a fan of the Clintons also and a DNC member (who's not?) and a strong labor supporter as is my whole family. I do hope the EFCA will not be broken in Obama's first term as was the health care initiative in Clinton's first.
I believe Obama's greatest strength is his broad vision of our country and the need to heal the rifts. To do that healing, I suppose he will have to rule from the center. But I don't believe the Republicans will emerge from this coming election, so shattered or broken in spirit that they will do something they have shown no sign of doing for 18 years: to compromise on their unrelenting opposition to liberalism be it social or economic.
October 18, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for your calm assessment of coming storms. Your voice here is a valuable one.
For myself I cannot presume to predict which groups may do "what" after the election.
What concerns me overall is a kind of breakdown in civility. A GOP unleashed dismantling of commonly accepted constraints, which make for a civil society and social order, resulting in endorsement of hooliganism and Lord of the Flies behavior. I find this very worrisome, like some genie released from a bottle, which will be hard to contain now.
I'd like to see a thread where people can post words of wisdom to hang onto in these dark hours, when we sense that victory will come along with too many Trojan horses.
October 18, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
thank you TheraP.
I think Barack Obama showed us the model of how to bridge the partisan divide even when the other side is unwilling to grasp the olive branch.
Calmness, reason, explanation, respect.
But there are dynamics in American politics that work against the cooling of the public's passions that such a president would ordinarily effect.
The media has no interest in calmness, civility, a new Era of Good Feelings. They will work against it. They are the true fly in our comity ointment.
They will seize on any discord and magnify it not because they are necessarily obstructive but because controversy generates revenue for them.
They have a vested interest in keeping things boiling.
This works against Obama, I feel.
Plus the historic migration of hispanics is making the nativists feel increasingly threatened and bitter that "their" country (never mind the sweat equity others put in to this place) is being transformed and changed before their very eyes. This nativist subculture is growing apace in strength and virulence and alienation from the mainstream (that they with increasing unreality claim to represent). This makes for unsettled politics for quite some time...
If I have any wisdom to provide it would be to quote the Dalai Lama:
"Out of my experience, I tell my friends wherever I go about the importance of love and compassion. Deep down we must have real affection for each other, a clear realization or recognition of our shared human status."
October 18, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for the quote from HH. Amazing how sane words can effect a deep calm.
I agree the media has too much interest in stirring the pot and watching it boil over. But they would not be able to do so without complicity.
Migration of many from different cultures and different religions. But at bottom it is simply people feeling threatened when society is not all dyed the same.
Glad you're here. We all need to hang onto our sanity and share the wisdom at times like this.
Peace.
October 18, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that the ugliness that was evident during the Clinton administration and was perpetrated by the republicans has left America fractured. There is no longer any sense of real community or commonality. In my own case, I look at the hatefulness in this country and I think "I don't know these people, I don't like these people, and I don't care about these people." It is a real stretch to think that I would do anything at all to defend these people from any sort of outside threat. Their attitude of "every man for himself" taken to its logical conclusion leads to no one being willing to help any of them in any way. I look at American culture and can only think that Americans are idiots, as though I have no connection to them or the country at all.
October 18, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gotta agree with you there, Lux. Our man Obama has proven that he's a fighter like no other. Not only will he handle the Republicans, but he'll show all of America just how wrong the Republicans have been on every single issue.
October 18, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
He handled McCain with respect and humanity even though he had opportunities to highlight McCain's own questionable decisions, associates and strategic changes of position......
Hreb, its going to be an interesting season. We need a landslide and 60 votes in the Senate.
October 18, 2008 10:06 PM | Reply | Permalink