The place was slammed with volunteers - I lost count how many packets of literature and walk lists I handed out. I think the estimate for the entire operation was that 25,000 doors had been visited in the Nashua area. And they still have 4 hours to go. Amazing.
I couldn't believe the energy and the organization. So exciting.
]]>And I'm shocked ABC would turn this down. I won't read into what that means. Although that shitty made for TV movie about OBL kind of told me what I needed to know.
]]>And on top of that - lets say you did make it there. How long did it take? 10 years? 15? 20!?! So until then you are going to suffer under a tremendously unfair tax system? A system that makes it harder for the 55k earner to find work, buy a house, go back to school, take care of a sick loved one, etc, etc?
I speak as someone who will receive very little tax relief from Obama. In fact, it would probably be more beneficial for me, when it comes to taxes, to vote for McCain. But what good is an extra 300 bucks a year when EVERYTHING else is broken? It just makes no sense. None.
]]>Although, to believe this, you have to believe that McCain (and, by extension, his campaign managers) actually give a shit about their party. Which, at this point, is highly questionable.
Now I'm really jealous.
]]>They must have an army of 50 Flash developers on paid staff.
On a related note - has anyone checked out the iPhone app? From what I read, they wrote that thing in under 2 weeks. Thats just silly fast. And I know.
They seriously bring ideas from mind to whiteboard to code to release faster than most software firms I know. And its always high quality. I wonder how much they pay ;)
]]>That would be sweet.
I think this is probably more of a white flag. McCain's Bob Dole moment. This bullshit talk of 'Our Internals Say We Are Winning!' Is just that, utter bullshit. Look at the polls out of PA today - you don't end up with 3 different polls showing exactly the same numbers unless the race has been settled. Will it end up being 12 in PA - no way. It'll probably be 5 or 6. But I don't buy for a single second that McCain's internals have him any closer than 8 there. The public polls are just too consistent to allow for massive poll error. Thats just a fact.
So, McCain is now Dole. He is going to lose. He needs to work on his legacy, work on fixing Palin's image, and try like hell not to allow states like Indiana to go blue. Because if that happens, you go from losing this election, to setting the tone for the next four. A victory is just a victory - a trouncing is lasting.
]]>The truth: Kerry trailed for half of August ALL of September and ALL of October. This was true on pollster and it was true on RCP. Period.
Cherry picking a single poll does NOT prove your point. Ugh. Gets me angry.
]]>I see you were thinking along the same lines.
Great comment. And it matches exactly what I have heard on the ground. "Fired up - ready to go," is a massive understatement.
]]>Popular Vote v Electoral Vote, Part II
And here are the 2004 RCP battleground averages:
]]>Its pretty easy for a poll to be off 3, 4, even 5 points. For reference, go check out some of the wildly humorous ARG polls during the primaries. At 10, however, you would have to spill coffee on your polling data to mess up the topline result.
Head over to fivethirtyeight.com and find Nate's post on the correlation between the national margin and the final EC margin. At +10 - we are talking a serious bruising. Even if the polls are 5 points off - +5 also results in a low 300 EC victory for Obama.
You can also check out RCPs 2004 battleground state averages. RCP (yes, some people hate them) uses a simple no-science-involved average on the polls. If you compare their 2004 averages to the final results - you will find that the margins are all within 3 points.
So, in summary, the national average right now is 8. You can safely say "We are winning." Even if the current polling proved to be, historically, the worst polling ever done - we would still be winning.
]]>15. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you think of [NAME] as a very safe choice for president, somewhat safe, somewhat risky, or very risky?]]>------- Safe ------ ------ Risky ------
NET Very Smewht NET Smewht Very
a. Obama 55 29 26 45 22 23
b. McCain 50 18 31 50 24 26
I am now mostman2 until mostman is allowed to login again.
Anyway - does anyone know of a place that is graphing the MC Penn tracker? I found one that was updated until 10/8 - but nothing with the rest. Perhaps I will do it myself.
]]>