Why Rudy Giuliani Cannot be President
Its been a slow road but I've truly come to despise Rudy Giuliani. I mean it. Not just disagree with him or his policies but to find everything he represents to be utterly despicable. Here, the ghost-written Rudy Doctrine of Foreign Policy, is all you need to know about the man. His ignorance--still breathtaking even after the horrors of George W. Bush--is appalling. Yet his main selling point is that he has the experience necessary to guide us through these dangerous terrorist-infested waters due to being New York's mayor on 9/11. That's it. Here's the beginning of the Rudy Doctrine:
We are all members of the 9/11 generation.The defining challenges of the twentieth century ended with the fall of the Berlin Wall. Full recognition of the first great challenge of the twenty-first century came with the attacks of September 11, 2001, even though Islamist terrorists had begun their assault on world order decades before. Confronted with an act of war on American soil, our old assumptions about conflict between nation-states fell away. Civilization itself, and the international system, had come under attack by a ruthless and radical Islamist enemy.
In other words, the World War IV thesis. This isn't surprising since the bloodthirsty senile lunatic Norman Podhoretz is advising him on foreign policy. How are we supposed to take seriously a foreign policy that assumes, from the beginning, that civilization itself is under attack from terrorism, as if such violent political action is an utterly unprecedented novelty in the history of the world? But then again I don't expect someone as dense as Rudy Giuliani to ever crack open a work of history. Here is the core of the policy:
The next U.S. president will face three key foreign policy challenges. First and foremost will be to set a course for victory in the terrorists' war on global order. The second will be to strengthen the international system that the terrorists seek to destroy. The third will be to extend the benefits of the international system in an ever-widening arc of security and stability across the globe. The most effective means for achieving these goals are building a stronger defense, developing a determined diplomacy, and expanding our economic and cultural influence. Using all three, the next president can build the foundations of a lasting, realistic peace. (my emphasis)
This sounds like typical foreign policy boilerplate that is big on goals, short on context. First of all, the idea that we're "at war" with terror. Why would it advantage us in the slightest to elevate terrorists to the status of nation-states by declaring war on them? Doesn't that legitimize their cause and make them the equal of United States? Furthermore, why lump all terrorists together? Obviously different terrorist organizations have different goals and agendas. Wouldn't be more productive for the United States to use the old divide and conquer technique? Giving terrorists who have no reason to work together a reason to work together actually creates truly "global" terrorism. This is like the GI Joe foreign policy creating Cobra to give it a raison d'etre. In short, Giuliani actually wants a unified terrorist front to confront, instead of the considerably more messy but less dangerous task of dealing with them separately.
The desire for a unified terrorist front also conflicts with his third foreign policy challenge. He's talking about nation-building here, and even refers to the creation of a "hybrid military-civilian organization" tasked with "building roads, sewers, and schools; advising on legal reform; and restoring local currencies." He continues: "The United States did similar work, and with great success, in Germany, Japan, and Italy after World War II. But even with the rich civic traditions in these nations, the process took a number of years. We must learn from our past if we want to win the peace as well as the war. (my emphasis)" Here is a perfect example of Rudy's abuse of history. Reforming/rebuilding postwar Germany and Japan worked precisely because those states existed as liberal democracies before they started down the road to fascism and imperialism, respectively. For what remained of the civilian population of those nations there was a context to work within. Marshall Plan dollars fueled the exercise, but the people could envision the results of their labor because they had been there before. Presumably the nation-building Rudy is referring to would take place in states we would generally label "failed" or "backward." These places have known only colonialism, kleptocracy, authoritarianism and military dictatorship. Their best days were literally in the ancient past. So while I am sympathetic to the nation-building argument (specifically the idea of putting people to work on large public works projects to create class and nationalist solidarity) as a means for deterring potential terrorism, trying to simply copy the success of the Marshall Plan ignores why it was successful.
This leads, of course, to the role of international organizations in the process. It may be true that some terrorists wish to see the end of the international order. But they will never accomplish that. The international order--let's call it the globalized world--is a rather decentralized phenomenon. True, it is dominated by wealthy and powerful states who receive the lion's share of the system's largess, but it can only be disrupted, not destroyed. Only the states who benefit from and shape the system can destroy it through, not surprisingly, bad foreign and domestic policy. What is unclear in the entire article are the questions of the relative merits of soft vs. hard power and whether sovereign states have the right to act unilaterally or withing the framework of a larger international legal and political order. Since the article doesn't address these crucial questions, we are left with the vague suggestion that IOs are important but perhaps less so than shared defense pacts like NATO, which Giuliani seems eager to expand. I consider myself receptive to the idea that organizations like NATO are terrific at preventing states from warring with each other. But the focus of this article is not on war between states but war between states and terrorists. NATO wasn't designed to confront terrorism, it was designed to confront Soviet communism. It seems the IOs Rudy is actually arguing for are the ones he trashes, particularly the UN. And the UN, while far from perfect, is an ideal organizing vessel for the task of nation-building (noting of course that the very charter of the UN would need to be changed from promoting international peace between states to something more proactive). Rudy claims to be adhering to the realist school of international relations but the posture he asserts is highly neoconservative--e.g. "we have learned that evil must be confronted -- not appeased -- because only principled strength can lead to a realistic peace." Neoconservatism is the antithesis of Realism. It is guided by moral responsibility and strength projection. Realism is amoral--you deal with the bad actors to the best of your own interest. Rudy tries to combine the two and the results are incoherent.
Now if I may recuse myself from the confines of the polite discourse of Foreign Affairs and return to Giuliani himself. It is unclear whether this foreign policy statement is one that is written with conviction or simply for the purpose of fooling the foreign policy "community" into thinking he's a reasonable man. There are enough internal contradictions that sound reasonable enough on the surface to lead me to the latter interpretation. But on the other hand the willingness of the neoconservative mind to suppress cognitive dissonance and never assess reality realistically seems to be at play here as well. We know Rudy couldn't come up with this stuff himself, so the document appears to be little more than a cover letter for a national security post in a Giuliani administration (shudder). Thus it is a rhetorical exercise designed to demonstrate "serious" thinking in foreign policy that has zero bearing on the real world. It is, in short, a lie. This is not how Rudy intends to govern. He simply can't have both a robust international community bound by law, led by the United States and a unilateral World War IV eternal struggle against Islamofasicsm. The two are incompatible. And so he will have to choose. Suffice it to say, he already has. This is, in other words, Bush's "compassionate conservative" campaign. The only difference is that what Giuliani says on the campaign trail doesn't hide his true intentions. The real Giuliani is the one in this video. Electing Rudy Giuliani president would be--this is not hyperbole--a disaster for the United States. Worse than Bush. Further than Bush. More deranged. He must be confronted by an adversarial press and a skeptical public. He will wilt under that scrutiny, its just a matter of making the effort.





If it's happened over a year in advance of the actual election, it's not that slow a road, is it?
Needless to say, your frothing at the mouth over Giuliani's entirely mainstream views says far more about you than him.
We know Rudy couldn't come up with this stuff himself
See my Karl Rove post for more on the reflexive assumption that every Republican president is a dimwitted puppet. Which, again, says more about your narrowminded inability to envision how people could hold alternate views to your own than about them.
August 15, 2007 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are Giuliani's views entirely mainstream, or mere ordinary idiocy. Should we take the fact that he's got no particular insight and seems dedicated to pumping the old cliches to be significant.
August 16, 2007 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
To casually say that Giuliani's views are "entirely mainstream" without any further explanation doesn't really address my specific criticisms of his Foreign Affairs piece. Is everything in the article a mainstream view? Only parts of it? This seems to me a tactic designed to paint me as out of the mainstream, rather than to address my specific criticisms.
As for your second observation, the "reflexive assumption" is all yours. Did I say that "every Republican president is a dimwitted puppet?" Did I suggest it with my criticism of Giuliani? No, I am specifically concerned with Giuliani's clear lack of understanding about national security and foreign policy which is not a reflexive reaction on my part but rather a conclusion I have reached based on his public statements regarding the issues. The FA article codifies those views.
It is always much easier to simply accuse me of being narrow-minded than to debate substance.
August 16, 2007 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did I say that "every Republican president is a dimwitted puppet?"
No, but I said sooner or later someone makes this mistake about every Republican president. And do be honest about what you're saying here; the word "ghost-written" is in your third sentence, for pete's sake.
But let's go through the opening statement you found so objectionable:
We are all members of the 9/11 generation. (Obviously enough.) The defining challenges of the twentieth century ended with the fall of the Berlin Wall. (Likewise.)
Full recognition of the first great challenge of the twenty-first century came with the attacks of September 11, 2001, even though Islamist terrorists had begun their assault on world order decades before. (This seems inarguable to me-- it was after all the SECOND attempt on the same skyscrapers-- although I know many refuse to recognize that we've basically been in a lukewarm war with Iran since 1979, for instance, and that Islamic factions of various stripes have been attacking the West on a regular basis since 1967.)
Confronted with an act of war on American soil, our old assumptions about conflict between nation-states fell away. (Al-Qaeda is not a nation-state, though it has, at times, used nation-states.)
Civilization itself, and the international system, had come under attack by a ruthless and radical Islamist enemy. (Here, perhaps, one could say that the threat is overplayed relative to the actual carnage caused. But of course, one nuke could change that, so it's far from unreasonable to take the threat so seriously.)
In short, an entirely mainstream view of the present situation.
Which you associate, perhaps a trifle redundantly, with a "bloodthirsty senile lunatic."
Yes, I think it's fair to say what's mainstream, and what's extreme here.
August 16, 2007 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
The opening statement of the essay essentially lays out an historical view of the world and the United States' role in it. I don't deny that many people would be sympathetic to most if not all of this interpretation, but what I am more interested in is Giuliani's proposed policy in light of this interpretation of the world. Here it is less than certain that he has mainstream views at all or anything meaningful to say on the subject at all.
I will try to condense the Giuliani foreign policy down to its essentials. In the opening paragraphs he writes that "A realistic peace can only be achieved through strength." I take this to be an endorsement of a Pax Americana. Fair enough. A few paragraphs later he writes:
I've already addressed this problem in my original essay, namely that Giuliani conflates all of America's enemies into "radical Islamic fascism" which is not only inaccurate but also tactically unwise. But is this a mainstream view? This sort of rhetoric is prominent on the right-wing; it typically isn't the way Democrats or liberals discuss the problem of terrorism. This gets us back to the question of whether the public (if this is our metric for gauging what is "mainstream") is on the whole more sympathetic to the right or the left, or if the reality is something more of a mishmash.
The next assumption: "Above all, we must understand that our enemies are emboldened by signs of weakness." American will, in other words, is the key to foreign policy success. If this is true, then the American public has certainly turned against the "long war" against terror, having been disillusioned about mission in Iraq. If Americans agreed with Giuliani's argument about will, then they would be supporting the president's policy in Iraq. They don't.
Giuliani talks a lot about nation-building in his article, something I have already touched on in my original response. And Giulini repeatedly notes that the military option is "on the table" to change intransigent regimes into productive participants of the international order. So are Americans supportive of this neoconservative approach? Here's some recent poll numbers (link). Asked whether our involvement in Iraq was eliminating, creating or not affecting terrorism, respondents answered 46, 18, and 27% respectively (9% unsure). But Giuliani is advocating "stay the course." The public disagrees. In a separate question respondents are asked whether the US should confront nations that harbor terrorists or stay out of other countries affairs. 49% for stay out, 41% for confrontation. The margin or error on this poll was +/-3 but the confrontation approach never succeeds in getting even half of the public. Broken down by D-R-I party affiliation, it is clear that Republicans are far and away most in favor of the confrontation approach.
What about the role of the military? Giuliani write that
Sounds pretty reasonable. Yet a couple paragraphs later he says
This sounds like preparation for war with someone like China, not terrorists. As I originally pointed out, the article is incoherent because it contradicts itself and wants to be all things to all people. Because of this, we can't really pin down whether it is a mainstream view since it says things that are likely to appeal to many people for different reasons.
So which is it? Military (peace through strength) or diplomacy? Rudy wants both, which is fine insofar as both are options, but he doesn't describe when we should "walk away from the table" and demonstrate that we mean business. Presumably this would be handled on a case-by-case basis. There is no detailed analysis on this level in the essay. For each country he mentions, from Iran to Afghanistan, to Russia to China, he says the same thing. This is the problem, generally, with the essay as I pointed out in my first criticism. Giuliani constantly says what we should do, not how we actually do it. Giuliani wants peace. Fine. We all do. How do we get it? Force and diplomacy. All he's telling us is that in the foreign policy toolbox, you've got carrots and you've got sticks. And sometimes you need to use one or the other. To wit:
That just isn't very insightful although the banality of the observation is mainstream enough.
When Rudy is vague, which is frequent, you can't really say whether it is mainstream or not. When he is specific, he is either controversial or mainstream depending on your political affiliation. But since he rarely offers any substantial policy positions, I am at a loss as to how to judge whether his entire foreign policy worldview is "mainstream." I stick by my original analysis, in which I wrote: "It is unclear whether this foreign policy statement is one that is written with conviction or simply for the purpose of fooling the foreign policy "community" into thinking he's a reasonable man. There are enough internal contradictions that sound reasonable enough on the surface to lead me to the latter interpretation." But combined with Giuliani's public statements about foreign policy all I hear is pandering to the GOP base. The rest is just gilding to mask his true intents. And if that is not the case, then he needs to come up with a more specific and more coherent statement.
August 16, 2007 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Worse than Bush, I agree. I think the threatened "international system" referred to in that document is essentially the same post-colonial faux pas that got us into the mess in the first place.
August 15, 2007 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink