On those polls


First off, all the usual caveats: polls are unreliable; to the extent they're accurate, they're only accurate as snapshots in time, not as predictors; still lots of undecideds or people who could change their minds; yada yada yada.

I went to pollster.com and collected the date for all the post-NH polls. There were 7. I divided them up into 2 categories: polls of likely primary voters, and polls of registered voters. I also discarded one poll that listed it's findings to be of "primary voters" without explaining what that term meant: registered dems likely or somewhat likely to vote? registered dems + dem leaning indies very likely to vote? etc etc. So that's out.

The findings were kinda interesting.

For Registered voters, we had the following:

...............Jan 10-13...Jan 9-13...Jan 9-10...My guess

Clinton 45 (+12) | 46 (+1) | 49 (+9) | 47 (rising)

Obama 33 (0) | 26 (+3) | 36 (+6) | 32 (slight rise/neutral)

Edwards 13 (-7) | 14 (+2) | 12 (-2) | 13 (slight rise/neutral)

============================================

Even with the wildly disparate swings (two polls have Clinton gaining ~10 points, one shows here steady), the findings are consistent: Clinton with a big lead and neither of her rivals doing much to close the gap. If anything, she's widening the gap.

The likely voter polls tell an entirely different story.

............Jan 10-12...Jan 9-12...Jan 10-11...My guess

Clinton 38 (+3) | 42 (-5) | 39 (-2) | 40 (neutral)

Obama 35 (+5) | 37 (+14) | 38 (+6) | 37 (rising)

Edwards 13 (-1) | 11 (+1) | 9 (-4) | 11 (neutral)

=========================================

Edwards is, interestingly enough, surprisingly similar in both types of polls: ~12 points, staying neutral. One would think, given the hubbub about the media ignoring him, that the more-engaged a voter is, the stronger his/her feelings on Edwards would be, but at least by this crude analysis, that's not the case.

However, what is striking is the difference between likely voters and simply registered voters on Obama and Clinton. Perhaps this is just random error, but there seems to be a clear trend that Obama does better among likely voters, while Clinton does better among registered voters. What's more, these polls suggest Obama did not suffer a significant set-back in NH; while he's rising in all 3, she's basically steady. That's the exact opposite of the polls of registered voters. Perhaps this is an artifact of name-ID effects for the politically less-engaged.

Does this mean anything? Probably not, but to the extent it does mean something, I'd venture this: it means the race is much closer than I think most people realize, that perhaps the "Iowa bounce" for Obama was less about momentum than it was about legitimizing him as a political force, which would "allow" voters to get on board who previously wanted to vote for him but were maybe reluctant to "throw it away" in the face of the menacing Clinton machine. That was a lot of scare quotes in one sentece; apologies.

That is, if you're convinced the guy you like has little/no shot, there's not much incentive to back him or to get out and vote for him. But by beating Hillary, Obama is able to consolidate that support

Also worth noting that it's not obvious these polls reflect what, if any, changes in voter preference took place in the wake of the whole "race-baiting" flap. That certainly could've changed the fundamental dynamic of the race, and I'm guessing we'll probably see the release of a slew of national polls today tomorrow and again at the end of next week that could tell us more.

Interestingly enough, the analysis of likely voters jives quite well with the regression trends on pollster.com, though the more-recent polls show the race even closer than the ever-narrowing margins pollster shows. We could be looking at a protracted nomination battle. Kinda exciting.

Did Gay Marriage Just Become a Major Primary Issue? (and congrats Iowa!)


I ask because arguably the most important stage upon which the primaries take place, Iowa, just saw a court strike down its gay marriage ban:

Associated Press - August 30, 2007 4:34 PM ET

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) - A Polk County judge has struck down Iowa's law banning gay marriage.

Judge Robert Hanson has ruled that Iowa's prohibition on same-sex marriage is unconstitutional. He ordered the Polk County recorder's office to issue marriage licenses to gay couples.

Des Moines laywer Dennis Johnson represented six gay couples who filed the lawsuit after they were denied marriage licenses, and he says Hanson's ruling is a moral victory for equal rights.

An attorney for the New York-based gay rights group Lambda Legal Camilla Taylor says the ruling requires full equality for all Iowans, gay or straight.

The county is expected to appeal the ruling to the Iowa Supreme Court.

So...does this become a major issue?

And if so, how does that play out? Does it benefit any Democrat or Republican in particular?

Oh, and of course: congrats Iowa! I'm very pleased to see this :D

source

Obama gets it right on Maliki


Yesterday, I posted this in response to Hillary calling for Maliki's ouster.

The short version: I think her position is straight politicking, and it's complete bullshit. What seems obvious to me is that the Iraqi central government has no control outside of Baghdad anyway, but even if it did, Maliki isn't some firebrand dragging a unified government towards sectarianism: he's the natural product of an underlying sectarian dynamic. Maliki, like Jaafari before him, simply is ruling exactly the way we should expect anyone picked by Dawa or the SIIC would rule. Telling the Iraqi Parliament to replace him is like (in the words of another) impeaching George Bush in the hopes that Dick Cheney will restore order to the White House.

Basically, Hillary either has not yet grasped the underlying political dynamic in Iraq which is that very same dynamic that made the invasion such a bad idea in the first place...OR...she thinks the American people don't get it and can be easily distracted by some political stunt, this charade where we depose of Maliki, replace him with the same politician (with a different face), and say we need to give this new PM time to guide the government.

Neither options is flattering.

I ended the post with the following:

I certainly hope one of Obama/Edwards has the balls to point out these obvious truths.

Well, this evening, Obama did, and in so doing, reaffirmed for me why I like him so damn much.

Per CNN

I think this is a distraction — this whole notion of 'is Maliki the right guy?' We can replace Maliki with four, five other guys, but if the underlying political dynamic is not changing, then we will not see progress in Iraq.

And that's it, in a nutshell. I'd like to see him be more aggressive in pushing this issue, like "failing to understand the strength of this sectarianism is precisely what lead to this disastrous invasion" or something like that...tie the posturing about Maliki to bad judgment about the war from the start, and tie his dismissal of this as an issue to his war opposition. However, I'm just happy to see a politician who's not insulting my intelligence, and who is being honest about the situation. For a change.

Because Iraq is not a political football. This isn't some fucking flag burning amendment in the Senate, or a show of hands in some podunk "debate" about whether or not English should be the national language. 1,500 Iraqi civilians are dying every month. We've wrecked havoc on this country and have the blood of tens of thousands of innocents on our hands. That's simply not something to be opportunistically leveraged for political points. It's not. It's serious, it's real, and it should be treated as such.

The fact that Levin and Clinton seem intent on making the war into political game-playing disgusts me. It's offensive. I'm glad not every politician is interested in playing that game.

Edited for grammar/clarity

Fighting misinformation


In the Huff Po just yesterday, Katharine Zaleski wrote the following while commenting on YearlKos and Hillary's defense of lobbying:

Senator Obama has been criticized recently for contradicting his rhetoric by taking money from lobbyists in the past.

She linked in that line to this article from Justin Rood, which I first saw on Ben Smith's blog on The Politico (with the snarky headline "Obama used to love lobbyists!" or something to that effect) and have since seen pop up as a "damning" criticism of Obama in the comments sections of blogs all around the netroots.

Only 1 thing: nowhere in the article does it say that Obama was "taking money from lobbyists" as alleged by Zaleski. Indeed, the closest it comes to that is saying:

A review of campaign finance records turned up no record of contributions from Nufarm to Obama. Astellas Pharma employees gave $1,100 to Obama's campaign in recent months, the documents show.

Huh? No record of the lobbyists giving money, no mention of that fact, no record of one of the companies being lobbied giving any money to Obama, and no even indirect evidence that there might have been some bundling at these companies...the most given was from 1 of the companies for $1,100.

Again: Huh?

I have to ask, are the people leveling these criticisms absolutely fucking brain dead? And Katherine Zaleski: how fucking lazy are you to not even read the article you linked?

How many people will read that sentence in the HuffPo; not click the link, or click the link and only read the ominous sounding headline; and assume some lobbyists bought influence with Obama? Of course, that claim, the implied claim, is completely unsubstantiated. But it goes from implied (which is insidious enough) in Rood's ABC News piece to explicit in Zaleski's piece. Based on NO EVIDENCE of influence peddling.

This is how the media fails us. Rather than taking the time to even bother to read the source of the allegations and determine whether or not they are merited, Zaleski endorses the narrative that lobbyists bought influence with Obama based on an article that states lobbyists didn't buy influence with Obama, they just successfully lobbied him. No campaign finance. No bundling. No chartered jets. No expensive lunches. At least, none are mentioned or cited. So what's the scandal?

Now, we can debate whether or not a politician should ever listen to a lobbyist. But that's not the point. Obama has not, to my knowledge, argued that all lobbyists are evil. He has argued that being beholden to lobbyists for campaign money is a corrupting influence on a politician. We can debate whether or not he's held up his pledge to not take federal lobbyist or PAC money in spirit. But the article cited simply does not say what Zaleski claims it says. And considering how much "transparency" and "good government" are a part of Obama's campaign pledge, that's a big claim to make without any evidence.

To my knowledge, I can't send Zaleski a direct email through HuffPo's website, and I don't see the point of posting this in a comments' section 3 or 4 pages long. Which means her mis-characterization goes unanswered and uncorrected. Awesome.

The "liberal" media strikes again!

Cutting funding for the war and impeachment


Edit: this post intends to focus on Congress blocking/refusing to pass an appropriations bill. This post is not intended to cover circumstances where Congress explicitly passes legislation designed to de-escalate the conflict by withholding funding in the absence of troop draw-down. Apologies for the confusion (and thanks to Tom Wright for catching that)

There was an interesting post on DKos just yesterday about de-funding the Iraq war. The diarist had found and read a long article titled "Funding 'Non-Traditional' Military Operations: The Alluring Myth of a Presidential Power of the Purse". The author was Col. Richard Rosen, who was once the Deputy Legal Advisor to the Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs as well as heading up the Army's JAG school. Big time credentials, and the title sounds appealing. "Myth"? Was Dennis Kucinich right? Could the Dems simply de-fund the war?

Unfortunately, not really. Kinda, but not really.

The paper finds that

the article considers the President's options when no statutory funding authority exists to sustain an operation and concludes that his choices are four-fold: (1) the President can seek Congressional sanction for the operation; (2) the President can abandon the operation; (3) the President can direct the use of a reimbursable funding mechanism, or; (4) if national security interests are sufficiently critical, the President can spend the money in the absence of an appropriation and hope either that Congress ratifies the action or that he has adequate capital to withstand the resulting political maelstrom.

Now, to clarify:

f a situation is sufficiently grave and an operation is essential to national security, the President has the raw, physical power -- but not the legal authority -- to spend public funds without congressional approval, after which he or she can either seek congressional approbation or attempt to weather the resulting political storm.

My bold, obviously.

So here's the situation. If we defunded the war, that could cause the Pres to stop spending on it and start an immediate draw-downn. Indeed, in theory, de-funding should end the war. However, that doesn't necessarily have to happen. Given Bush's track record, I'd argue its extremely unlikely to happen. Instead, he'd invoke his unitary executive BS, and exercise his physical power over the Treasury, and the war would continue on. Perhaps funded more on the cheap, but that would be a bad thing, no? If the Pres got stingy and then blamed it on the Dems, that could get real ugly.

On the other hand, it would also present the most clear rationale for impeachment if we ever did reach that point. But is impeachment possible? I literally don't know. What are the procedural hurdles? What are the votes needed? Do the Dems have them?--I'm unclear on how many votes they have in the Senate (isn't one Dem currently in the hospital and not serving? What's the deal with that?). If we could safely assume that not a single Republican Senator nor Joe Lieberman would vote to impeach, would the Dems have enough?

And how long does this is all take? If the Congress simply did not approve anymore funding for the war from here on out, when would it run out of money and the Pres run into clearly un-Constitutional waters? How long from that point would it take to impeach and remove him? And beyond that, how long from then would it take to impeach and remove Cheney?

This is the worst-case scenario, IMO. What it would take to end the war before a Dem President is sworn in could be really ugly. If Bush starts running the war illegally, but on the cheap, and then uses the late military pay checks and such as a political club to hit the Dems while they hold hearings on impeachment...that could be bad for the troops, for Iraq, and for the Dems. That's real risky.

But it's that or continue to work on getting 67 total votes for a withdrawal bill.

If we're gonna throw this stuff around, like Kucinich did last night, lets not oversimplify the issue and muddy the waters. Who's interests are really served by creating a lot of false expectations of Congress, if this simply isn't feasible?

Oh yeah, also, the article includes and the Kos diarist helpfully excerpts multiple historical precedents for this type of spending:

Who did it? George Washington, in suppressing the Whiskey Rebellion. Thomas Jefferson in 1807, in responding to the capture of the American frigate Chesapeake by the British warship H.M.S. Leopard. Abraham Lincoln, at the outbreak of the Civil War. Calvin Coolidge in 1926, to provide relief from a hurricane to farmers in Florida. None claimed the expenditures were authorized in any way, shape or form. But all made them, on their own orders, with the Treasury's compliance.

It's these actions that led Col. Rosen to include that fourth option among the president's choices in the face of a refusal by Congress to fund his operations. There's more at work here than legality. There are issues of physical control.

Thoughts? Any insight into impeachment proceedings?

"Obama Osama and Chelsea's Moma" and smiling Mitt


I don't know how to insert pictures (or if we even can), so you'll have to go to TMZ or DailyKos if you want to see the pic.

However, someone captured a couple photos of Mitt Romney with a supporter. The supporter is holding a sign that reads "No To Obama Osama and Chelsea's Moma"[sic]. In the first pic, Mitt has a shit-eating grin on his face. In the 2nd, he actually grabs and holds up the sign.

The folks over at TMZ interpret the sign to read "No to Obama, Osama, and Chelea's Moma", (note the commas) BUT I think it's more likely playing off the wonderful theme we got a taste of in January, and as such is meant to be read:

"No to Obama-Osama and Chelsea's Moma"

Should be interesting to see if anyone in the MSM picks this up and, if so, what they say about it. Also interesting to see if this hurts Mitt at all. I'm inclined to think that it might actually help him in the primaries, but this is something I would drag back up no matter who gets nominated for the Dems if he's the guy the GOP sends up.

On defense lawyers, Fred Thompson's lobbying, and my problem with Hillary Clinton


I apologize in advance for the cumbersome length of this post :D

It's pretty common to revile lawyers in modern America. I heard a joke just recently along the lines of "the problem with lawyers is 99% of them give the rest of us a bad name!" or something along those lines.

This is socially acceptable for a variety of reasons. Lawyers can be nit-picky, they sometimes charge exorbitant rates, or bill for absurd hours, game the system, exploit personal tragedy, or defend and help the most heinous scum. As such, I can understand the dislike.

While I don't endeavor to defend all lawyers and all lawyering practice, I do hope to defend defense lawyers (to an extent), or at least re-frame the issue in what is, I think, an illuminating way. I hope to then apply those insights gleaned from looking at defense lawyers to issues surrounding a pair of Presidential front-runners, Fred Thompson and Hillary Clinton.

In Defense of Defense Lawyers

I think a lot of our disgust with defense lawyers stems from a lack of consideration for their place in the larger system of justice. That is, American courts are not like Judge Judy's, where a judge investigates the case, barks at the plaintiff and defendant, and then hands down her ruling from on high. Judge Judy is just a caricature of what are often called inquisitorial systems of justice.

The U.S., however, relies on an adversarial system of justice. That is, the system itself is predicated on two advocates for opposite ends to argue in front of an impartial judge and jury. The judge's main role is to ensure the terms of debate are fair, and the jury's main role is to determine, in effect, who won the debate.

As wikipedia helpfully explains:

Judges in an adversarial system tend to be more interested in ensuring the fair play of due process, or fundamental justice. Such judges decide, often when called upon by counsel rather than of their own motion, what evidence is to be admitted when there is a dispute; though in some common law jurisdictions judges play more of a role in deciding what evidence to admit into the record or reject.

Now why is this important? In theory, at least, it seems to elevate concerns for individual rights over concerns for effectiveness in locking away criminals. The fact that criminals will sometimes get away is a truth we accept from the get go. Making it hard to convict the defendant, and ensuring that (s)he has a devout advocate, is, at its heart, about protecting the individual from being trampled by an over-eager state. That is, I think, pretty obviously a societal good.

But it requires devout advocates for the accused. Indeed, while it's often the case that we think of someone like O.J. Simpson "getting away with it" as the grand miscarriages of justice, I would argue that we accept such outcomes from the get-go, and they keep prosecutors and police honest by demanding that cases are made in Constitutionally-acceptable manners. No, the true miscarriages of justice are when defense attorneys sleep through trials (even ones where the defendant faces death), or are so negligent that the jury doesn't even know the defendant's name.

That doesn't just call into doubt the accuracy of the decision, but also calls into doubt the efficacy of the entire system in protecting our individual rights. While the notion of profiting off the job of saving criminals from facing justice sounds repugnant indeed, we have to remember that not everyone indicted on crimes is actually guilty of crimes, and our right to defend ourself from unjust convictions necessitates the existence of those staunch advocates. You don't have to be an advocate for murder or rape to be a defense attorney, simply a believer in keeping the system of justice honest and working properly.

A Different Approach to Fred Thompson's Lobbying History

So, what does this mean for Fred Thompson? Well, Mr. Thompson's name has been in the news lately as he "tests the waters" of the Republican primary, deciding whether or not to run for President (though, presumably, that decision has been made). What is his appeal to the base of the Republican party? In large part, its the force of his televised personality. That is, his character on Law and Order is viewed as a staunch, down-to-earth Conservative, in a field where no true Conservative seems to stand out.

Rudy Giulliani, the front-runner, dresses in drag, hangs out with homosexuals, gets married a lot, etc. John McCain's whole appeal in 2000 was precisely that he's not predictably Conservative. He's a "maverick"! Cultivating that label and then verifying it by parting from the base on issues of importance (like immigration) has destroyed any amount of trust Conservatives have in him. Mitt Romney actually does fit the ideal conservative mold, only...he's a Mormon, something that makes many distrustful of him. (I also don't think it helps that he looks like a game show host, has the charm of a used-car salesman, and sounds like a robot when he does voice-overs for his political ads). So in swoops Fred Thompson, Conservative with a capital "C", to save the day.

Only, here's the thing. Fred Thompson lobbied on behalf of Pro-Choice groups in the early 90's. Or, as the LA Times, who, I believe, broke the story, put it:

Fred D. Thompson, who is campaigning for president as an antiabortion Republican, accepted an assignment from a family-planning group to lobby the first Bush White House to ease a controversial abortion restriction

That certainly screams "hypocrite" or at least "flip flopper" at first blush. But I'm wary of intuition like that.

I would argue that the system of lobby firms in Washington is, in a sense, a free-form version of an adversarial system of justice. The rules are more lax, and there can be as few as 1 and much more than 2 advocates in any given debate. However, the principle remains the same: the system only functions insofar as any given side has an advocate. The elected officials serve as both judge and jury.

As such, much like I don't think defense lawyers who advocate on behalf of individual murderers ought to be considered personal advocates of murder in general, nor do I think those who lobby on behalf of abortion rights firms ought to be considered personal advocates for abortion rights per se. Interestingly enough (and unknown to me as I endeavored to write this post), Thompson, after flat-out denying the story and then offering folksy and ultimately empty talk of "flies buzzing," actually made this argument to Sean Hannity:

Hannity served up a chest-high, 25 mph softball:

"They have attacked you, they have attacked your family, and now, they come out in the Los Angeles Times with a piece that says you lobbied for abortion rights. You say that's absolutely not true."

All Thompson had to do was say to Hannity, "You're damned right." Instead, he answered as follows:

"You need to separate a lawyer who is advocating a position from the position itself." Hmm. Then: "They will probably come at me, in 35 years of law practice, with some people, I represented criminal defendants. I was a prosecutor. I had a general practice. So that in and of itself doesn't mean anything anyway."

I think that's right. To an extent.

There are differences here, and our criticisms of Thompson ought to, I think, reflect that. The most obvious difference being that while our criminal justice system serves to protect the individual's interests from the state, the lobbies in Washington, on the whole, seem to subvert the interest of the general population in favor of moneyed interests. A defense lawyer who advocates for a murderer is defensible insofar as the criminal justice system is defensible. I'd say the same hold trues for a lobbyist. A lobbyist who advocates for a position you deem heinous is defensible only insofar as lobbying itself is defensible, which is to say, not very defensible at all.

As such, I think its a bit misguided to use the lobby record to try to call Thompson a hypocrite or flip-flopper on abortion in specific. Certainly, if you'd like to do that, there is evidence enough outside the lobbying story to make the case, like going on record in the Senate as opposed to criminalizing abortion and favoring 1st term abortions.

However, the larger and more true criticism ought to be the one that places Thompson squarely in the center of all that is wrong in Washington. The fact that he lobbied on behalf of pro-life groups doesn't necessarily suggest that he is unprincipled on abortion on a personal level. But the fact that he lobbied period suggests he lacks principle on any issue at all, as he was willing to take money to advocate for any interest group that could afford his time. We know this because we know he lobbied on behalf of clients that do not reflect his principles. He was lobbying to make money, and willing to compromise on any of his principles to do that.

That, I think, is a damning criticism that would turn off not only some in the Republican base but also most moderates and Independents in the general election. Over-focusing on abortion and trying to make him into a flip-flopper on one issue seems myopic to me, when the evidence is there to paint him in total as nothing more than an empty suit. Why chip away at the edges of his Conservative persona when you can explode the whole damn thing?

My Problem with Hillary

At this point, you're probably tired of reading my dry writing and wondering what the hell any of this has to do with Hillary. And the answer has nothing to do with her distinguished legal career.

Rather, it has to do with the fact that our system of government is decidedly Madisonian. That is, it's separation of powers and methods of election require majorities to win the confidence of minorities in order to effect change. This whole idea relies upon conflict. Our Madisonian system, at its heart, is also adversarial. But the system is set up to make passing anything incredibly difficult, which, by favoring the status quo, creates the need for broad consensus, the working out of debate via compromise. It involves both responding to and helping shape public opinion.

As such, while a Representative's constituency is his/her district residents, and a Senator's constituency is his/her state residents, their role in the government makes them vital to protecting national interests. Congressman realize this, obviously, and often times have to balance the demands of their constituents with what they think is best for the nation. They are advocates for their constituents, but their duty is to all citizens, and their job is not always to simply reflect the popular will. But certainly, much like defense attorneys have a role to fill in our adversarial justice system that is vital to it working, so too do Congressmen have an adversarial role in our system of government. One that is vital to the proper function of said government. (Edited for clarity: while the Congressman can pay fealty to their constituency by the policies they enact, fulfilling their role within the system is of utmost importance for the system to run properly. Heh, could I have made that more confusing in the preceding paragraph? Yuck.)

Much like the sleeping defense attorneys mentioned earlier, I think Hillary Clinton was derelict in her duty as a U.S. Senator in her vote to authorize military force in Iraq. I don't say this because I didn't agree with her vote then and remain in disagreement now. I don't say this because of her refusal to apologize for the vote. While I don't agree with John Edwards' vote either, I don't consider him derelict of duty (at least as much so). I say this because of the reasons she's given for voting as she did; for the way she frames the issue in general; and for what that suggests to me about her view of the government and her role within it.

First of all, she did not read the N.I.E. This, to me, is inexcusable, and the fact that so few Senators did read it is shameful. The decision to send the country to war is one of incredible weight, and the Congress is responsible for compiling as much information as possible before making that decision. That was pure negligence.

But even more so than that is her own stated rationale for the vote. As noted back in 2004,

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton said she is not sorry she voted for a resolution authorizing President Bush to take military action in Iraq despite the recent problems there but she does regret "the way the president used the authority."

And, what's more, this past March, Michael Crowley reported:

. First, I asked her about the influence her husband's foreign policy experience had on her Iraq vote: whether his successful use of force, even without U.N. approval, had shaped her decision. "It certainly did influence my thinking," she told me in her matter-of-fact tone. "What many of us thought was, the use of diplomacy backed up by the threat of force--that is a credible position for America to take in the world." But, she added, "there were those in the Congress who thought that the United States should never even threaten force--or certainly take force--in the absence of U.N. Security Council approval. Well, I had seen during the Clinton administration that sometimes, that's not even possible. Sometimes, it's not even possible for the president to get congressional approval to pursue vital national security interests."

And

her October 2002 speech explaining her vote for President Bush's war resolution, Hillary was clearly conflicted. She listed several reasons why war might be necessary, including the Iraqi chemical and biological arsenal--which she called "undisputed"--and her purported special perspective, as a New Yorker after September 11, on the "risks of action versus inaction." She also offered several counterarguments, including her fear that Bush might make a dangerous precedent of "preemption."

But, in concluding that she would support Bush, Clinton offered another rationale of a very different sort. She argued that she was inherently predisposed to grant the benefit of the doubt to a president asking Congress for support in matters of war. In the '90s, Clinton had watched congressional Republicans undermine her husband's foreign policy for political gain. They mocked his interventions in Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo--Tom DeLay called it "Clinton's war"--and they cried "wag the dog" when he launched a cruise-missile attack on Iraq in the midst of the Lewinsky scandal. "[P]erhaps," Hillary mused in her floor speech, "my decision is influenced by my eight years of experience on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue in the White House, watching my husband deal with serious challenges to our nation. I want this president, or any future president, to be in the strongest possible position to lead our country in the United Nations or in war."

In short, Clinton was arguing that Congress should have an innate deference to presidential authority in matters of diplomacy and war. As she explained to ABC's George Stephanopoulos in December 2003, "I'm a strong believer in executive authority. I wish that, when my husband was president, people in Congress had been more willing to recognize presidential authority."

Now, I can understand why someone who has been in the White House, or someone with Presidential aspirations, would look kindly on an expansive view of executive authority. What's more, there is a long and rich legal history supporting that view, back all the way to Hamilton debating the issue with Madison. However, to me, basing her decision at least in part on that view is tantamount to a defense lawyer rolling over because she remembers that, as a prosecutor, she was often frustrated by rabid defense lawyers, and even failed to bring bad people to justice as a result.

While that may have been frustrating, and it may have hampered justice, those checks on that power are necessary for the system to work. Adversarial systems don't work when one side doesn't put up a fight out of deference to the other. Her rationale can be read, I think, in only two ways: one, as an admittance of complete negligence in her duty as a Senator to check the power of the executive; or, two, a total disavowal of that adversarial system in favor of the unitary executive approach that seems to have roots in Hamilton's Federalist Papers # 70.

I think, with Bush, we've seen first hand what it looks like to have an unchecked executive run amok. I have no desire to re-visit this experience, even if the unitary executive were a liberal, competent one, as opposed to the current incompetent zealot. Hillary's rationale for her vote to authorize force suggests either a total failure of her role in our Madisonian system, or disbelief in that system altogether. As such, she's losing any support she had from me as a 2nd or 3rd choice. I cannot forgive that type of failure, nor can I condone that Constitutional interpretation.

I don't want a defense attorney who sleeps through my trial, nor do I want a prosecutor who prefers trials that way.

After long thought, Edwards is now strongly my second choice, and Hillary is sliding to the back of the line.

How to successfully Impeach and convict Gonzalez, Cheney, and Bush with a little help from McCain


If, like me, you believe Attorney General Gonzalez, Vice President Cheney, and President Bush have all committed high crimes and *cough!* felonies *cough!* but fear that removing these criminals from office would be a distraction at best and a nightmare for Democrats at worst, here I offer one possible way this could happen successfully. But you're going to have to stand with a few Republicans to make it work. Just like we did during Watergate when Nixon got the boot and Vice-President Ford was handed the Reigns.

Below the fold: how it is Republicans who will decide the success of impeachment and removal. Thus, if you want to impeach, you're going to have to make a few friends with the GOP. One in particular, John McCain, would appear to have most reason for revenge against the Bushies. But feel free to imagine this scenario with any of your most palatable Republicans.

"But ... but ... but ... this is a Democratic Blog!!!" I hear you scream.

Well, sorry. As much as it sucks, the Democrats lack a supermajority to force the issue. And further, doing so would only incite yet more partisanship warfare at a time when national unity is critical to success.

There is ample evidence to impeach on the grounds of Obstruction of Justice and Conspiracy to Commit Obstruction of Justice. These men are criminals. And if they are let off without sanction, we will set a precedent for lawlessness in the executive that threatens the very foundations of our republic. Thus, seeing Justice done is far more important than Democratic partisanship. Or Republican partisanship. Equal justice is mandatory for the functioning of our constitutional republic. Partisanship wins, less so.

Here is one possibility for how a successful change in leadership might occur. We need seventeen Republican senators and only a few (if any) congresspersons:

  • Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid arrange a little meeting with John McCain. They offer him an interim presidency to support impeachment and removal for Gonzales, Cheney, and Bush. McCain may be willing to do this because - I suspect - he is still a little pissed with the Bushies for insulting him, his wife, and his adopted children during the 2000 primaries.

  • John McCain has a good deal of political clout with Republican Senators. He arranges a little backroom brokering behind closed doors with Republicans and gets the necessary seventeen.

  • Nancy Pelosi places in three parallel articles of impeachment against Attorney General Gonzalez, Vice President Cheney, and President Bush. She next immediately steps down as Speaker of the House temporarily. John McCain is handed the Speakership duties pro-tempe. Note that the role of Speaker of the House can be assigned to any citizen, regardless of House membership.

  • The new Speaker places articles of impeachment on the agenda and stifles all debate, instead forcing a voice vote to immediately Impeach all three. Without a roll call, votes are not recorded - so Republicans aren't on the record.

  • Senate immediately takes up the trial and convicts on the same day.

  • John McCain is sworn into office as President of the United States. He chooses a vice president of his liking.

  • Nancy Pelosi returns as Speaker of the House.

  • Bad news: John McCain - like Gerald Ford - will have the opportunity to pardon. \*shrug\* I'm not a vindictive prick, I just want these assholes out of office. Fine.

  • '08: we fight it out on the election battlefield, just like every other presidential election year.

No debates. No bullshit. No media storm before it happens. Just walk in, do the deed, and get the fuck off the house and senate floor in one day flat. Don't let them prepare. Don't give the Bushies one inkling of the shitstorm coming their way. Do it all backroom and then stick the knife in once you've got the votes. Gonzales, Bush, and Cheney would be then out of office without recourse. Plus, the Democrats would have not used impeachment for partisan gain. So at least a minority of Republicans would have cause to support the action. Certainly McCain, who I think would consider this fair turnabout.

Everybody wins. Except for Gonzales, Cheney and Bush. Who get what they deserve.

[EDIT]: A hat tip to Bill White, who proposed much the same plan over in this discussion at theforvm.org.

In defense of the Edwards hair story (sort of)


I'm going to start off by saying 2 things:

1 - I know this isn't going to be the most popular blog, but to my knowledge nobody has said exactly what I'm trying to say here, and I think its an important argument.

2 - I want to be unequivocal on this point. The coverage of Edwards' $400 haircut has been excessive beyond any point of reason, suggests a particularly vapid and vindictive press corps, and Edwards and his supporters have every right to say as much.

However, there is a growing consensus on the lefty blogosphere, both from bloggers and those who post in their comments sections, that this is a story which never should have been reported in the first place. That even only 1 story on the haircut would be one too many. I take exception with this, for reasons laid out below.

Successful political campaigns rely on 3-pronged narratives to sell the voters on their preferred candidate. The first prong describes the world as we know it, the second prong describes the changes we'd like to see enacted in that world, and the third prong explains why the given candidate is the best agent to deliver those changes. Jay Cost describes this lucidly on his blog at Real Clear Politics, and the narrative's history is explored in more depth by Paul Waldman over at the American Prospect.

Edwards does have a nice narrative. I think Cost (in the above linked article) is wrong, insomuch as he argues Edwards does not understand the need for the 3rd prong in his campaign narrative. I think Edwards understands that just fine. His sell goes like this:

1-The major problem with America is that it has become a society with 2 classes: the elite, and the middle/under class.

2-The solution is a host of policy initiatives designed to redistribute wealth, increase opportunity for the poor, etc etc.

3-John Edwards is the man to implement this action because, as the son of a mill worker, he's faced poverty, he's climbed the impossible climb, and as a result has dedicated his life (political or otherwise) to making sure others have the same opportunity.

That's a wonderful narrative and, what's more, I think there's a lot of truth in it. In all 3 prongs of it, in fact. I agree with him on the basic notion of "2 Americas," I agree with him on the types of policies that need to be enacted, and I actually would not be surprised if he was completely and totally sincere in his fight to improve conditions for the poor and eliminate poverty.

However, a cornerstone of this all is the notion that John comes from humble roots and, as such, understands what life is like for the poor. This understanding motivates his fight. He was the son of a mill worker, as he's been telling us for awhile now

Now, as we roll toward Pittsburgh, Edwards is talking about why he has taken on this issue. His own childhood began amid the working poor in North Carolina, but as his father, a textile mill worker, moved up the ladder, his family became solidly middle class, "which is the way it's supposed to work," he says, but all too often these days it does not.

Very convincing. However, I do think reporters are right to question any/all aspects of that narrative (just as is the case with any of the candidates and their narratives), and offer evidence they think contradicts Edwards' pitch. And in that context, the Hair Story makes sense and is, I think, totally valid. A lot of people have taken stabs at this (or similar stories) and come close in explaining why its valid, but, I think, ultimately they miss the mark. For example, Cost says of Edwards purchasing a large house

That mansion sends the wrong message about who he is. It allowed his political opponents to tag him as somebody who does not really believe what he says, and therefore as somebody unworthy of the office.

This thought is somewhat echoed by Marc Ambinder:

The primary difference is definitional: The centerpiece of Edwards's campaign is his anti-poverty efforts; he presents himself as a dedicated messenger for the cause, and he likes expensive haircuts, bought a gimungous house, etc. etc. His credibility as a messenger comes into question when he spends money ostentatiously.

I don't agree. Certainly, people have called him a hypocrite, but without merit. I don't think Cost is right in saying he opened himself up to those criticisms. As Cost and many others have pointed out, there is nothing inherently hypocritical about being rich, liking expensive things, and caring about poverty, and that certainly doesn't make him a bad advocate for the poor.

So no, I don't think that's quite right in defending the validity of the story. I think what's going on here is a little more subtle and closely related to what they're saying, but not quite that. At least, not directly so.

I think the hair cut, however, is valid (if incomplete) evidence that his stated rationale for why he's a good agent for social change might be false. That is, Edwards himself uses his impoverished past as evidence of his sincerity in his fight on poverty. This is true enough on its face for anyone who's been following Democratic politics for the last 4 years, but again, one need only read the quote I listed above from a recent Time article about him. His roots are his stated motivation, and the image he tries to create for himself is undoubtedly the up-by-his-bootstraps-son-of-a-mill-worker.

The notion that he'd pay $400 dollars for a haircut can be legitimately construed to contradict the image of Edwards-as-son-of-mill-worker. Paying that much on your hair certainly does not suggest someone who is in touch with his impoverished youth. Indeed, it could be easily read to suggest he has, in fact, distanced himself from his roots in not just tax brackets (which we already know), but also values. It would be hard to imagine someone who was legitimately poor at the time viewing a $400 haircut as anything but incredibly excessive and wasteful or, at the least, absurd. I think one subtle change to Ambinder's argument brings it home.

Instead of:

His credibility as a messenger comes into question when he spends money ostentatiously

It should read:

His credibility as 'John Edwards, son of a mill worker' comes into question when he spends money ostentatiously.

We could do that with Cost as well.

Not quite right:

That mansion sends the wrong message about who he is. It allowed his political opponents to tag him as somebody who does not really believe what he says

Should read:

That haircut sends the wrong message about who he is. It allowed his political opponents to tag him as somebody who is not who he claims to be

It doesn't jive with the public persona he's trying to project. At all.

Once you puncture a hole in that image, the whole narrative starts to fall apart. It's not a big leap to then ask: "Well, if he's not anchored in his impoverished past like he claims, then that can't be his motive for his advocacy. What then is his motivation for his focus on poverty?" And the cynical mind answers: "Politics explains it all." (a contention that's been made rather explicitly at times). I admit, I've been guilty of that very thought process.

So, after all that, yes, I think it was valid to report the story and ask, "so, is the image John Edwards projects phony?" The question of phoniness is one that has dogged him (and dogs him still), and the hair cut seems to me to be valid evidence for his detractors. It certainly is not sufficient evidence. But it is evidence, nonetheless.

What's more, the debate over his authenticity is an easy debate to have. His detractors will say "yeah, he's fake" and point to his shifting political stances/the house/his new ads as more evidence. His supporters will say "no, he's sincere" and explain the changes in political stances, point to all the work he's done on poverty for which he's reaped no political gain, point out that advocacy for the poor isn't really the wisest political strategy anyway, etc etc etc. I think that's a fair debate to have. And a debate those in Edwards' camp could very well win.

However, there's been almost a vindictive glee about the fervor with which some have pursued this story, and that is unsettling. What's more, while the question of Edwards being a phony certainly has been raised, the hair story has continued on completely separate from that debate. As Ambinder says:

John Edwards's haircut was a valid story to cover, although its impact and signifiance were magnified beyond reason and sanity.

And:

a healthy chunk of the national political press corps doesn't like John Edwards.

The coverage has been shamefully bad regardless of motivation, but if the above does indeed explain at least in part why the story seems to have such legs, that represents a serious ethical breech. Greenwald, Lemieux, et al. are right to call out the reporters and editors responsible. Sargent is right to trash it. It has been nothing short of heinous. I certainly do not argue with that notion.

---

That, at least, is my long-winded take on the Edwards story.

Post-script: I do understand and concede that the haircut story is also about the Right's unending quest to emasculate Edwards, and wouldn't disagree. The fact that it has been co-opted for such use and could explain the story's endurance does not change the fact that, as I argued, the story contained information that is valid for use in evaluating the candidate and as such is a valid political story.

mopper8

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