mk's Blog

What do all these volunteers do?

2008-11-06T05:28:21Z

Obama's won. He has a tough set of tasks in front of him. He also has something unprecedented in American politics: millions of supporters who are willing to volunteer their time and energy, as well as money if need be.

Here's the question: How does a President Obama harness technology and his unprecedented network of volunteers to support his agenda for governing America?

I invite you to leave responses in comments. Please be as specific as you can. What are the strategic game-changers here? What are the potential pitfalls, if any?

Response to McCain socialism charge

2008-10-29T21:16:17Z

Biden (or Obama) could say this:

"John McCain's been lurching from argument to argument over these last few weeks. His latest is that I am a quote, 'socialist,' because I want to roll back the Bush tax cuts on the very wealthiest Americans so we can give the middle class a tax cut. You heard it here first: a middle class tax cut equals socialism! And yet, all we want to do is to let the rich pay the same tax rate they did under Bill Clinton. Did I miss something? Was everybody a socialist 10 years ago? Did George Bush rescue us from the brink of socialism? I thought he rescued us from a strong economy and a budget surplus."

Here's what's going to happen.

2008-09-26T00:16:28Z

McCain doesn't like the bailout plan.
He has come to Washington to scuttle the consensus and start over.

Currently everyone resents his presence, but he is going to make himself a permanent fixture. Congresspeople will continue to be irritated for a while, but McCain will eventually get the support of the Republicans who don't like the bailout idea.

McCain will work with Republicans to develop a counterproposal. Democrats will have to wait for it because they can't approve a bailout without bipartisan cover.

Eventually bipartisan negotiations will start up again. The plan that comes out of these negotiations will look different than the consensus that was just scuttled. It may not bear much resemblance at all to the Treasury proposal.

Democrats will say that John McCain stepped in to take credit for something that was already happening. John McCain will point out that he was able to win concessions, and that the new plan looks different from the old plan.

Depending on how big those concessions were, and how different the new plan really is, and in which ways it is different, the public may decide that McCain's influence was helpful. If they do decide this, then McCain may get a boost, despite all the preening and the presumptuousness.

Substance will drive the political outcome. If McCain causes substantive changes that are really beneficial, he will go up in the polls. If he does not, he will be justly rebuked for causing needless trouble in a moment of crisis.

Obama needs a Clintonian theme

2008-09-22T20:57:09Z

Jacob Weisberg says Obama needs to tie together his economic ideas with something catchy and memorable. He's right.

Clinton pulled this off in 1996. He said we need to "build a bridge to the 21st century." This reinforced many themes:

1) Invest in infrastructure (the "bridge" image)
2) Look to the future (the world is changing and we need to keep up)
3) Psst, oh, by the way, the other guy is old.

How about a related theme, something like "Build an economy for the 21st century?"

This can serve similar purposes:

1) We're "building" something, i.e. getting the country active again after some recent scares. (An echo of the New Deal.)
2) Drills the word "economy" into people's heads and owns it.
3) Oh, by the way, the other guy is old: If this election hinges on who better understands the challenges of the 21st century, Obama will have a big advantage: He's young, and doesn't look like your average politician. Obama has successfully ridden the current of history to the nomination. If he can be "on the side of history", as Bill Clinton acutely put it in his convention speech of a year ago, he will be well-positioned to win the election.

Barack's 6 words to ride to the White House

2008-09-16T22:17:30Z

"They broke it. I'll fix it."

These words were spoken by Chrystia Freeland on Chris Matthews' show on Monday 9/15. She was proposing a campaign slogan for Barack.

Anyone else think this is the new "It's the economy, stupid?"

The great thing about this is that it is punchy and covers the bases: (1) There's a big problem in the economy, (2) McCain is part of the problem, (3) I'm part of the solution.

This slogan is so good that I think McCain's only viable response would be to start using the same exactly line in his own speech, to muddy the waters.

Obama is in a position to seriously bodyslam McCain this week.

Anyone else think...

2008-09-13T04:42:29Z

... Barack Obama should drop the word "uhh" from his vocabulary?

I sure do.

The Rovian tactic against McCain/Palin?

2008-09-08T20:52:39Z

Tough times for the Obama campaign right now. What would Karl Rove say? Well, turn your opponent's strength into a liability. What's the strength of the opposing ticket? Sarah Palin. But what does the Rovian strategy mean in this context? Here's one possibility:

Call John McCain out as being "increasingly, a bystander in his own campaign."

Benefits:
1) Shines the spotlight back on McCain,
2) Uses the national fascination with Palin against the ticket by tying it to McCain's comparative lack of personal appeal,
3) Paints McCain as irrelevant (and subtly hints at McCain's age).

McCain has been all to happy to make comparisons between Palin and Obama (on experience, earmarks, etc.). This has been good for McCain because he can get off scot-free while the pundits debate "state senate" versus "small town mayor" experience.

But Obama can turn this discussion to his advantage by noting that we are ignoring McCain because he simply doesn't matter.

Americans won't elect an irrelevancy to be president.

Obama/Biden: "Leadership we can trust"

2008-09-04T20:41:09Z

McCain has snatched the initiative with his Palin pick, which everyone is still reeling to figure out.

One possible approach for Obama is to tack aggressively towards the center, and use the uncertainty surrounding Palin to his advantage.

"Can we really trust Gov. Palin?" the ad might go. "What does she believe? What does she stand for? What would she do if she were in charge of the country? Does she even know? What would she do in response to the Pakistan crisis?"

Palin had one big chance to tell that story to the American people, and she didn't do it. Obama, by contrast, has been in the national spotlight for a long time and has gotten his policy positions out there.

Obama shouldn't abandon the "change" mantra. But maybe he could turn the tables on the shocker pick by casting himself as (ironically) the safe alternative to the "unknown quantity" that is Sarah Palin. A possible campaign slogan here could be: "Obama/Biden: Leadership we can trust."

The risk with this strategy is that Sarah will "pull an Obama" and, throughout the course of the race, will sufficiently address the lingering questions about her agenda. Then the Obama camp would be left holding the bag while McCain/Palin closes the deal.

This will be a tough and exciting fight, no matter what.

A rather weird take on the current state of the race

2008-09-04T19:50:24Z

Here's my (weird) take on where things stand. Hear me out!

The central dynamic in this race is the charisma and magnetism of Obama and that of Palin. McCain may also get his groove back since he's hanging with a young woman. In fact, I bet this will happen.

That charisma is a precious resource. Obama cannot squander it by pooh-poohing Palin's negative attacks.

Here's the really weird part. Sitting down? Good.

Obama's best response to Palin's barbs is subtle flirtation.

Imagine this everyday scene: a pretty, sharp-tongued, smart girl gives you some harassment, delivered with some wit. Can you take it? It's a reflection of your character. Are you a joyless busybody, who doesn't want to "play the game," to try to impress her with your toughness and comebacks?

Obama will douse the flame of his celebrity power by being too grownup to "have some fun."

Instead, the subtext of Obama's response should be: Yeah, you've got charisma, but if you really care about helping our country, why are you running with this loser?

Obama should regard this race as a competition to win the heart of Sarah Palin. She's given it to McCain, but why? McCain wants to repeat all of Bush's mistakes!

Obama is in real danger of losing the media unless he can involve himself in the story of Sarah Palin. He should take the bait and defuse Sarah's attacks by enmeshing them in a broader picture of flirtation.

It sounds nuts, but remember this is the first time an attractive, sharp-tongued woman has been in a national political race. The dynamics are different.

This is not a sexist strategy. Both Obama and Palin get a lot of mileage on their charisma. Obama needs to keep that charisma a front-and-center part of his campaign.

Note: I may not agree with what I just wrote. (Consider it food for thought.)

A one line response to Palin's nomination

2008-08-30T01:11:29Z

"Sarah Palin may well be the future of the Republican party. Unfortunately, John McCain is the past."

This would be much less harsh a rebuke than what's been in the media today ("she's not experienced enough", the mini-scandal brewing, etc.) but my sense is that Sarah Palin may be a Teflon kind of candidate whose charms inoculate her against anything people might throw at her.

Frankly, we already lucked out on that score because we nominated Barack Obama, who has many of the same charms.

Barack should be gracious (and appear gracious) about the fact that there's a new new kid on the block. But he can continue to relentlessly hammer McCain as being out of touch and stuck in the past. McCain is running for president, not Palin.

One possible Obama reaction

2008-08-29T18:55:15Z

"I have my own experience with rocketing onto the national stage, so I can appreciate and understand where Mrs. Palin is coming from. And I think Mrs. Palin is an encouraging choice, a sign that the Republicans are willing to move beyond some of the divisions of yesterday. I congratulate her and welcome her to this race. Of course, if you look at her policies, she's right where president Bush is -- in some ways, even further away from the mainstream. She wants to repeal Roe v. Wade, supports the Bush tax cuts on the wealthy, . We'll continue to vigorously make the case that this election is too important for four more years of the same failed policies. Oh, and by the way, Hillary Clinton will be the first woman president."

McCain's "Exciting Ad!!"

2008-08-28T17:06:00Z

I know what's coming:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/28/mccain-plans-exciting-campaign-ad-thursday-night/

What they will do is use excerpts from the speech Obama gives, combined with insta-rebuttals. (E.g.: "Barack Obama said he cares about the working class. But if so, why did he call them "bitter" and blah blah blah?") The novelty is that this will occur directly after Obama's speech (they just need to snip a few clips from the speech he just gave, to drop into the ad.)

Mark my words. They already have all the rebuttals mapped out. Just heat and serve.

The spin-fest after the speech will be furious. Obama's team better be ready!

Every stupid McCain ad is an opportunity

2008-08-27T17:24:46Z

Look at McCain's mind-numbing latest ad, which castigates Obama for saying that Iran is not as big a threat as the Soviet Union during the cold war.

Why can't we acknowledge that attacks like this are a huge opportunity for the Democrats? John McCain didn't just walk into a trap, he set a trap for himself and walked into it. He bought a white t-shirt, wrote the word "stupid" on it in large letters, with an arrow pointing up, and then put the shirt on.

We cannot afford as a nation to continue having the national security debate on the Republicans' demented terms.

Joe Biden should say this in his speech tonight:

"Sometimes the Republicans are so crazy on national security, it's impossible to think they really believe what they're saying. John McCain just released an ad which attacked Barack Obama for saying the Iranian threat is smaller than the Soviet Union's threat during the cold war. Does John McCain seriously want to argue this? Let's take a look! In 1986 the Soviet Union had over 45,000 nuclear warheads, including 20,000 tactical nukes. It had a standing army of over 10 million. Today Iran has zero nuclear weapons -- zero -- and its army is one-fifteenth the size of Russia's.

If John McCain seriously thinks that Iran today is as great a threat today as the Soviet Union twenty years ago, he has completely lost his marbles."

Please say this, Joe. I'd kiss you if you said it.

How about this response to the Ayer controversy

2008-08-25T23:09:33Z

After a thorough explanation of the circumstances of Obama/Ayers' associations:

"If we must never associate with anyone with an unsavory past, no matter what the current circumstances, then by this logic none of us should associate with John McCain, due to his role in the Keating Five scandal. If John McCain wants to argue that he is too corrupt and untrustable to be worked with under any circumstances, that's a debate we can have. Which is it, John?"

Obama "fan club" smear, and counterstrategies

2008-08-12T03:10:46Z

This is the latest iteration of John McCain's "celebrity" meme:

Link

Notice the eager teenage-girl scrawl of the lettering.
Notice also the sidelong glance by Obama... is he checking out your teenage daughter?

It's pretty stupid, but par for the course in terms of politics.

What is arguably of some concern to Obama supporters is that McCain has successfully found a theme he can pound into the ground regarding Obama, from now till the election. It's not clear that Obama has found something similar regarding McCain.

One option is to portray McCain as someone who has "abandoned his principles." Think of the flip flops over the last few years, the overtures to the right wing fringe he had previously had so much disdain for. The lockstep voting with George Bush, abandoning the idea of being a maverick. And finally, the abandonment of his repeated explicit promise to conduct a respectful campaign based on an honest discussion of the issues.

The facts are all there to make this case. And the more John McCain smears Obama, the more Obama can get on McCain regarding his abandonment of civility in the campaign. Finally, Obama should explicitly and repeatedly draw the connection between an uncivil politics and an unhealthy system of governance. Bush has shown that you can win elections by tearing the country apart, but when the people are divided, the lobbyists and special interests move in and assert their control over our politics.

Why not a scary ad with lobbyists, backroom deals, George Bush, and shifty-looking politicians employing divisive political tactics, cementing in people's minds the connection between bad politics, corruption and bad governance? This would be a negative ad that targets a political style, not McCain directly. But McCain's negative political tactics then become a liability.