I had a conversation the other day with a friend who asked me if I was really sure Obama is pro-Israel. "I mean, we know McCain is."

We do? How do we know that? Besides what does it even mean to be pro-Israel?

There is a real irony here, one which most of us who deal with this issue in Washington confront daily. It is that the politicians who are most deft at spouting memorized "pro-Israel" talking points tend to care about Israel the least. The ones who speak from the heart and the head, who study the issue, and try to come up with ways to break out of the deadly status quo are the ones who care the most.

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I know we are supposed to ignore the polls -- especially when we don't like what they tell us -- but I can't. And they don't look especially good. Despite a disastrous month of July, John McCain is still only a few points behind Obama.

That isn't good. In fact, I think it means that Obama is behind. After all, Mc Cain is an utterly flat candidate, the economy is tanking, gas is at $4 a gallon and the best we can do is lead by a few points. I don't like it.

In 1992 and 2000, the Democratic Presidential nominee looked surprisingly weak until he chose a Vice President. The Gore and (I hate to say it) Lieberman choices produced an immediate bump in the polls that held right through election day.

In 1992 Gore was an exciting choice because the ticket was young, cool, good-looking and substantive. With Lieberman in 2000, the choice of the first Jew to run on a national ticket felt historic. Both choices were exciting. That was the main thing. Democrats left the conventions feeling that victory was assured.

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I think I have read every word Barack Obama uttered on his visits to Israel and Palestine and I'm struck by his ability to navigate this tricky issue with such dexterity. After all, everybody is just waiting for him to trip up on the Arab-Israeli issue. Joe Lieberman, the Israeli media, the right-wing pro-Israel organizations are just waiting to pounce on some misstep.

It didn't happen, just as it didn't happen in Afghanistan or Iraq.

And here's why. He knows his stuff. I worked on Capitol Hill for 20 years and I can tell the difference between a staff driven politician and one who knows what he's talking about. The staff driven pol (McCain is an example) is always capable of the big blunder. He does not mix up Shiites and Sunnis because he "misspoke;" he really doesn't know the difference. Same on the economy, he studies a memo and works to assimilate it. But there is no depth.

The sad fact is that most of our politicians are like that. On the Arab-Israeli issue, all they know is that they need to sound pro-Israel. So they end up mouthing the most superficial pieties. They are afraid to talk about the Palestinians because they might say the wrong thing.

They pander and pander, knowing that they won't get into trouble by just sucking up.

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Benny Morris is a prominent mainstream Israeli historian so his words matter. And, according to what I hear, the views expressed here reflect what many Israelis think. So we better pay attention.

Morris predicts that Israel will attack Iran sometime between the Presidential election and Inauguration Day. He says that we all (including the Iranians) better hope that the Israeli attack succeeds in eliminating Iran's nuclear program because, if it doesn't, Israel will have to resort to using a nuclear weapon.

For Morris, there is no alternative (he dismisses the idea of negotiations). For Morris it is simple. Iran is working on a nuclear weapon. It won't be stopped by sanctions. The United States is too chicken to attack Iran. So....Israel has to do the job.

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