Reality Check: Commander in Chief and Hillary v. McCain
In a "time of war," who will the American electorate say is the right candidate for the moment? John McCain or Hillary Clinton?
The refrain about Iraq has been: Bush overruled the advice of seasoned combat advisers by invading. McCain is a seasoned combat vet and knowledgeable about military affairs and he's more experienced than Hillary as a Senator as well as in years. Hillary loses Iowa and she tears up. McCain gets tortured in Viet Cong captivity, survives and comes back as a maverick senator. You get the idea. Who is up to being Commander in Chief between the two of them? It'll become an issue.
McCain's scorned trip to Baghdad to play Baghdad John takes on a new look as counter-insurgency tactics have been given a chance to work in Iraq. He'll claim that he was an avid supporter of the approach and believed that it would pay off if only given the chance to work. He will say "but for Rumsfeld-Feith-Wolfowitz."
And if Iraqi stability improves over the next several months, the Republicans are going to claim the whole kahuna: they rid the Iraqi people of dictatorship; stabilized a terror-state; and secured strategic resource access. All this, they will claim, while the Democrats played chicken little and the Republicans made something edible out of a bad stew.
Obama, however, would be able to say, whatever the short term result of the Iraq invasion and occupation, it was the wrong thing to do, and the full ramifications won't play out by November 2008. "How long?" he'll ask, rightfully, will Americans have to live in Iraq to hold the cap on the Babylonian version of Pandora's Box? And he won't have any flip-flop appearance-of-hypocrisy issues.
Hillary will have to say, well, it was the right thing to do believing what I did at the time, but not the way it was done and so on and so forth, putting her in a position to explain herself too much. It is essentially the argument that John Kerry used. It will make her look irresolute or perhaps inexpert, and she has enough Vietnam War protest photo-history to suggest that she's a Janey-come-lately to the smart-hawk-flock.
McCain had been pushing a counter-insurgency approach to Iraq as early as 2005 and backing President Bush. Petraus helped carry out the counter-insurgency tactics, finally. It wasn't just the surge, i.e. more troops, as McCain also advocated, differing with Rumsfeld.
Hillary may be a smart lawyer (not always the American peoples' favorite image) and a skilled senator, but she's not with the war-wizened viewpoint as much as Senator Obama is.
The Schwarzkopfs, Powells, Zinnis and others were not afraid to say that the Iraq war was the wrong thing to do under the circumstances. Obama has stayed consistent with that, and not only for self-righteous formalism. It is because Americans are now and may be committed for a long term, expensive and speculative investment of lives and treasure in Iraq. Will it have been worth it if better energy source development could have averted it?
Superpower status is built on energy. The last several years have been spent bolstering a petroleum industry with taxpayers' money while that industry takes more from taxpayers at the pump, too, and drives up inflation everywhere else as companies pass the cost to the little guy. And that plays right into the anti-democracy Russian Federation's hands, because it has dominant petroleum product stores under its soil.
Obama's stand is more like what the combat seasoned advisers in 2003 told the Neocon-flush Pentagon to no avail. They said don't go in there. His views also include a decided advocacy for a shift of power away from corporate influence over war policy, something independents greatly await. You see, elites simply don't lose children in wars as much as little folks, so they are willing to pull the trigger for dollars with much less reflection, and frankly, a lack of character. Senator Obama, more diplomatically than I am, speaks out about this.
The establishment requires checking against populist common sense when it comes to making Commander in Chief decisions. The populist common sense includes a rounded connection to enlisted persons. Obama is the candidate who will reflect on the priority of sending them wisely, while Hillary may yet still have something to prove just as her husband apparently did when lobbing ineffectual cruise missiles about the Middle and Far East.




