Al Qaeda blows up the World Trade Center and kills thousands of Americans. Al Qaeda was led by Osama bin Laden, the mastermind of the operation, and he was supported by the Taliban.
George W. Bush acted rationally in ordering the invasion of Afghanistan and the routing of the Taliban. Bin Laden escapes.
George W. Bush then acts irrationally against the weight of seasoned military advice, and orders the invasion of Iraq.
The US eventually turns the job of Afghanistan's secure development to NATO. That effort suffers. Some gains in Afghanistan against the Taliban and Al Qaeda are lost over time, with US forces divided between two tough tasks: finishing off Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan, versus finishing something in Iraq.
Whatever good has been achieved in Iraq by the end of Bush's term, the US Military has achieved on the fly, with errors committed in earlier innings, mostly by the Secretary of Defense and Pentagon civilian advisors. The counterinsurgency methods used now, if used after the invasion in 2003, might have shortened the occupation.
In tonight's State of the Union address, Mr. Bush stated that the job of pushing Al Qaeda out of Iraq is getting done, but isn't finished. That is because Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan was not finished first.
If the US hadn't invaded Iraq in 2003, there would have been no reason or opportunity for Al Qaeda to recruit Iraqis and draw in fighters from surrounding nations, or for Iran to finance and support insurrection. US forces would have been able to focus on finishing off the Al Qaeda that blew up the World Trade Center. Justice remains undone for those murdered on 9-11.
If the US had not invaded Iraq, Al Qaeda in Iraq would not have been in Iraq. So it is clear that AQ in Iraq came to the US presence, or else the Bush Administration could not call the problem "foreign."
What portion of those who became the foreign fighters in AQ in Iraq would have committed terrorist acts elsewhere, other than in the US-invaded Iraq?
We appear to have a dual purpose policy (the real deal) of using Iraq as a resource security platform and a convenient offer of satisfaction for Americans to believe it was always planned that it become a kill-zone for "Al Qaeda."
However, had the job of routing the Al Qaeda responsible for 9-11 been finished first, would Iraq have been easier to secure if a real reason for military action materialized?
American forces used for an unnecessary tasks divert those forces from necessary tasks. The good feelings shown at the State of the Union address don't change that fact. That is the truth and we should not bury it for political expediency. This sort of thing should not be done again with the troops or the American peoples' trust.