Out-Maneuvering Ambush Internationally: Mr. Bush Must Lead Anew Despite Past Mistakes and Embrace Domestic Opposition
U.S. SecDef Robert Gates sought agreement with Vladimir Putin's government on the European based missile shield, offering that it be used in mutual defense and as a partnership project. Not a bad idea. However, Defense Minister Seredyukov rejected it out of hand before Gates met with President Putin and presidential appointee-apparent Sergei Ivanov, who Mr. Gates expected would be more flexible than the up-front denial suggested.
"It's nice that you accepted the invitation and that President Bush sent you so quickly," Putin said in greeting Gates at the Kremlin. "We have planned a conversation with him after our meeting." The two did not discuss substantive issues during a brief exchange before reporters were escorted from the meeting room.
--Source: Washington Post, Gates Hopeful for Accord on Missiles, by Robert Burns, The Associated Press, Monday, April 23, 2007, 10:54 am.
The statement by Pres. Putin seemed to suggest that the Kremlin was aware that the US was running to Moscow with hat in hand to solicit a deal. It was a nicely stated condescension that in itself doesn't matter, unless it is believed by Washington, and by President Bush.
What is of concern is that the Kremlin knows that the U.S. President is embattled, his leadership is in question, and he is a human being who under such circumstances badly needs to redeem his image and legacy with a breakthrough somewhere on the globe. Russia can give him something he needs. However, there is always a price exacted by the Neo-Soviets trained in the former Committee for State Security.
What is scary is that Pres. Putin is a wily and formidable political player who can manipulate someone with such a vulnarable position as that of President Bush. His regime may be helping to supply those who keep Iraq burning simply by overlooking black market flows from former Soviet players now otherwise employed. His comment to Mr. Gates, although Gates stands most qualified to discuss the merits of US-Russian relations, seems to stroke Mr. Bush's ego while implying a special relationship that is perhaps closer to Mr. Bush than Mr. Gates would appear to have. This intimation is itself a very subtle ego flaw that Mr. Putin himself shows us, that he needed to speak his codes at all.
However, with the EU's malleability to Russian leverage further at stake in the French run-off election between Sarkozy and Royal, remaining firm in Washington DC is more important than ever. And that, not for American hegemony, but for a wise balance of power.
I believe Vladimir Putin plans to milk President Bush's precarious domestic standing and popularity by offering him "friendship." Here is a feared and effective despot, offering Mr. Bush a boost in prestige. What comfort will Mr. Putin offer to Mr. Bush to make him feel better about his position as a president, as a leader, as a military commander, and as a man? Mr. Putin is working Mr. Bush like a foreign recruit for his former KGB. Bush must have been advised of this, and I hope he does not mistake Mr. Putin's apparent Orthodox Christianity as some kind of sympatico faith with his own. Mr. Putin celebrates men who saw many an Orthodox Christian imprisoned and or killed for speaking up for liberty against state manipulation of the faith. The Patriot Act is a Mr. Rogers sing-along compared to the Soviet policies on anti-Soviet activities that Mr. Putin's people have enforced throughout their careers.
Not that the President will fall for the svengali orchestrations designed to take advantage of the President's domestic problems. Mr. Putin has burned him before, coming out and broadsiding him at Munich. And yet, Putin is a good cop compared to domestic critics who offer Mr. Bush little appreciation or comfort at all. And I do not think Mr. Bush would give anything up out of hatred for the United States, however, he is not embracing the United States with all of its elements, including his opponents. Cheney and Mr. Bush are antagonistic to them in return. It is the old partisan battle, the nastier home fight from which embraces from ever-so-kindly authoritarian leaders who offer understanding and some boost in prestige, could really exploit.
President George W. Bush needs to realize that he has nearly a year and a half to fix some problems that the United States faces over the long haul, cut his losses, scrap foolish policies, and do a real Patriot Act: work very hard every day to firm up U.S. standing in the world and in Europe. If this means some U.S. rebuilding and self-investment while minimizing damage and handing some international problems over to the EU and RF to see how effectively they may handle them, so be it.
Sometimes, the key to tomorrow's leadership is to take a sabbatical while others are allowed to discover the difficult conditions in which you led. Let the EU and Russian Federation come to the United States for help with the difficult international relations problems that the Middle East poses for anyone involving themselves there. The PRC nor the Russian Federation are any more Muslim than the US. Let them engage the area and try to unite Shi'a and Sunni factions throughout the region.
With some self-investment and good ideas, Bush could repent of energy company pandering in the coming year by turning around and proposing legislation on environment and alternative energy development fast-tracks that accelerate US energy independence and take a serious approach to managing environmental trends, both natural and manmade, yet real in any case. Acting on these two issues and re-investing in the U.S. homeland security and value-producing economy will go a long way towards balancing out the blame to fall on his shoulders if he continues down the alleyways that others have prepared for him.
Break the gauntlet route and pull up on the opponent's flank. Secure a line and re-establish strength at home according to disinterested advice from those who have been there before. Remember: "Peace through strength." With weakness and over-extension comes dissapation and self-destruction. The U.S. is strong enough to recover even from the Iraqi debacle, and re-establish its strength and foreign policy so that it is a precise and morally unified one.
That can't happen by slinking around in the same alleyways. Everyone knows what those alleyways are, and they are so full of booby traps now, no other path is prudent except a sea-change that is self-determined by the U.S. leadership, and not by some foreign influences with which it has become dysfunctionally engaged.




