For people wondering why Obama has not "closed the deal" by trouncing McCain in the polls (so far), I offer two observations that should provide a little perspective.

First, imagine January 20th, 2009, with a black man being sworn in as President of the United States.  The historic importance of that achievement cannot be overstated.  No one wants to inject race into the campaign (at least not officially), but a side-effect of that is neglect of the storyline about the monumental obstacles Obama seeks to overcome.  He is turning Martin's dream into a reality.  Who ever imagined such a feat would be easy?

Second, consider the numbers.  Despite his enormous and obvious failures, Bush's popularity never sinks much below 30%.  That means 30% of Americans will NEVER vote for a Democrat, no matter what (we all know some of these people and why this is the case).  On the other hand, at his most popular, just after 9/11, Bush's approval ratings hovered around 90%.  That tells me that about 10% of Americans will NEVER vote for a Republican.  That leaves about 60% of the electorate whose opinion might possibly be swayed, one way or another.  To get the polls to 50/50, Obama needs to reach 2/3 of these people.  He's done that and then some, so how much more can we expect?  Even if it's a landslide, this election will be close.

Tweak the analysis how you want, the point is obvious.  Obama has climbed the mountain.  The next 40 days is about helping him take the last step to reach the summit.  Let's stop asking why the air's so thin.  Eyes on the prize.  (Insert additional metaphors and mix liberally).

I pose this question to Obama supporters who both oppose the FISA bill and think Obama's statement on it was motivated by political expediency. Among this group, I see two general reactions here at TPM: either (1) I'm so mad at Obama for this I'm going to withhold financial support from his campaign or (2) Obama's position does not change the big picture and my support for him remains strong. Now, my question is, do you believe that (a) Obama is a typical politician who will always ignore ordinary people unless they exert constant pressure on him or (b) Obama has a progressive agenda but must deal with political realities, especialy during a presidential campaign? I think if you believe (1), then (a) might be a rational response (though I would still seek to persuade you otherwise). If you believe (b), it seems to me, then (2) is the ONLY reasonable response. What I'd really like to see is people arguing for (1) to not pretend that they believe (b), and people who do believe (b) to think really hard before letting anyone convince them of (1).