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Week of October 25, 2009 - October 31, 2009

The recession is not over; not even close to over


Suppose that the recession is going to be "V" shaped, which is the hope of the more optimistic.  Then, the recession is not over until we reach the top of the right side of the "V".

At present, we may have just passed the bottom of the "V" and started up the right side. However, it will be a few quarters until we get up to a level even with the left side.

It is specious to declare a recession over until the GDP exceeds its previous maximum, adjusted for inflation, for two sucessive quarters.

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Merrill

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