Crude Oil Speculators and Mortgage Brokers
The current economic crisis did not start on Wall Street.
It was the mortgage companies and brokers who laid the tinder, especially Countrywide, Calabasas, CA; IndyMac, Pasadena, CA; and Golden West, Oakland, CA. These companies, and their brethern in the wholesale mortgage channel together with the independent mortgage brokers, were the main purveyors of ARM, negative amortization, Alt A, and NINJA mortgages. They were the ones responsible for lax underwriting standards for mortgage origination.
It was the crude oil futures speculators who lit the match. Gas prices went from $2.25 to $3.00 / gallon in the spring of 2007 and then stayed relatively flat. In the spring of 2008 they went from $3.00 to $4.00 / gallon. As gas prices rose, those suburban McMansion plantations in places like Antelope Valley, Stockton, etc. that required a 2 hour auto commute to jobs in LA or the Bay Area did not look so attractive to buyers, and the housing prices started to fall in California.
Now the price of West Texas Intermediate is about $35.93, and the mainstream media portrays this as the price of oil. However, Brent Blend, Tapis, and other prices around the world are typically $7 / barrel higher -- in the vicinity of $43 / barrel.
The speculators are setting us up again -- this time to kill alternative energy development in the United States. A $25 / barrel tax on crude oil would be a good thing.





I think you are vastly oversimplifying. "Oil speculators," includes contract buyers trying to lock in airline fuel costs and ordinary investors looking to commodities as a safer haven than the already over-leveraged stock market.
Demonizing others will not absolve the Street.
February 13, 2009 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Crude oil futures are derivatives, just as are the much reviled Credit Default Swaps. Most buyers of crude oil futures are simply betting on price moves in crude oil, and they will never take or make delivery of a barrel of oil at Cushing, OK.
The phyisical market at Cushing is thin compared with the contract volume, so most trades are financial speculations. And the entry into the market by hedge funds and big institutional investors means that they can push the prices around.
I'm not trying to absolve Wall Street, but if we don't identify the causes of the problem, like the unconsionable mortgage practices in California and the manipulation of energy prices, we won't actually solve the problem.
February 13, 2009 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you really think we can limit the transactions to just producers and refiners? Speculation only pays off where there is volatility. There was volatility because Saudi Arabia was no longer the swing producer - able to open their valves to calm down prices.
As far as pushing the prices around, in the face of reduced demand OPEC is trying desperately to push the prices back up, but they've failed due to a lack of discipline among their members. If the suppliers can't control the price, how could the speculators have done so?
February 13, 2009 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
For the OPEC suppliers to influence the price they have to significantly increase or decrease the actual world volume, which is in the 80s of million barrels per day.
For US oil companies to influence the price, they only have to manipulate the small percentage of world volume that goes through Cushing Oklahoma.
February 13, 2009 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be manipulated, that "small percentage" must stored instead of being sold. Storing oil isn't cheap, and you've defined speculators as those who never take physical delivery. So either BP, Enbridge, Plains and SemGroup are doing the speculators a great big favor by keeping oil in or out of the market, or they themselves are part of the manipulation.
February 13, 2009 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Total US domestic crude inventories are about 345 million barrels, and daily US refinery runs are a little over 14 million barrels according to Barron's.
Storage at Cushing is about 40 million barrels according to Reuters, so Cushing storage is less than a 3 day supply when full.
Cushing has filled and prices fallen when various refineries have shut down or cut back. Also, BP converted the Veridian pipeline from Chicago to bring Canadian oil to Cushing, which increased supply.
So yes, various players in the market, working together with speculators, can drive prices on the NYMerc.
February 13, 2009 9:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, so it's a conspiracy ...
February 13, 2009 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I agree that the promiscuous vending of mortgages, many to folks the originator knew when selling the mortgage would never be repaid, if bad mortgages were the only problem, things wouldn't be nearly as economically bad as they are.
Things are so bad because Wall Street sharpies leveraged the mortgage debt to an extent only sustainable if real estate prices, peaked at 20%-40% over their historical values relative to rents and income, continued to rise.
All of those ill written mortgages were written because of the demand created by Wall Street securitizers for more mortgages to securitize into CDOs, slice and dice, re-slice and dice, and vend to ill-advisers investors, while retaining the, presumably, least risky slices, which were often placed in Specialized Investment Vehicles, established in places like the Cayman Islands, to move the toxins off the books.
The Collateralized Debt Obligation was invented by some financial sharpie about twenty five years ago, but determining the value of CDOs was a bit of a problem so they did not become immediately popular. Earlier this decade some other financial sharpie developed a valuation model which became accepted as reliable and CDOs became a land office business and word went out across the land "bring us mortgages." Thus the promiscuous vending of the types of mortgages of which you write.
Those issuing and holding CDOs purchased Credit Default Swaps, CDS, to protect themselves against defaults of the underlying mortgages, and other types of debt, and then the CDS were securitized into Synthetic CDOs, backed by zero cash.
When the real estate bubble burst the value of the CDO and SCDOs plummeted to an extent not really know by anyone. Banks quit lending to other banks because of the uncertainty of the potential lender as to how much toxic debt was on the books of the borrower.
Additionally, the more financially savvy amongst us saw an opportunity to buy a house at zero down, often with the closing costs included in the mortgage, refinanced as the value rose to remove equity for consumer spending or investment, and then walked away with their profits when the value dropped.
Really, the poor saps who went for the sucker mortgages really deserve only a minor share of the blame for the situation in which we find ourselves.
February 13, 2009 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
So given your scenario, the remaining big banks should have by now sold off all the riskiest tranches of the CDOs to unsuspecting pension fund operators in Narvik, Norway and the tranches left on their books should be no more risk than normal portfolio mortgages. At least if they weren't terminally stupid about what they kept.
Of course, there is no market for what the banks now have in inventory, good or bad, since the previous buyers were so badly burned that they won't touch the stuff.
But the fact that it is unsaleable doesn't mean that it has no value. It just means that the banks have to wait for the payment of interest and principal to come in over the life of the mortgages.
February 13, 2009 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, all I was really saying, and I think it was quite clear, was that when apportioning blame you omitted the investment bank securitizers and leveragers. None-the-less, I'll bite, though I am hardly qualified to do so.
The esoteric securities the investment banks, and etc., have on their books have a market value, according to a recent report I read, of about 30% less than the worst case value the rating agencies place on them, and way, way less than the value at the time of creation. Thus the holders aren't selling.
The investment banks hung on to the AAA and Super tranches, thinking they were safe.
Well in fact the top managers of Citi and etc. are terminally stupid and/or were totally uniformed as to what the backroom traders and securitizers, working for commissions and bonuses, were up to; and in even worse cases the risk managers were told to get off the traders' backs.
Go read the piece by Michael Lewis , the guy who wrote Liar's Poker,which appeared at Portfolio.com a few months ago.
Well, indeed. But the problem is the toxic debt, being a part of the balance sheet, effects their ability to remain within federal capital reserve requirements. The debt and securities which do not meet the Tier 1 or Tier 2 definitions, which the toxic securities certainly don't, can not be counted as capital reserves.
Thus the institution must seek additional capital. That is why many institutions, in the early days of the financial meltdown, sold a part of themselves to foreign Sovereign Wealth Funds and other investors with cash. It just wasn't enough, particularly for Citi which was forced to take its Specialized Investment Vehicles, consisting of only the toxic debt, back onto its books.
At this point, for the likes of Citi and a number of other commercial/investment banking conglomerates the only remaining source of capital is the USA government. Citi and others will probably soon become properties of the USA government. Hopefully at some point in the future the toxic debt will recover in value sufficiently that the USA taxpayers either take less of a bath or actually make money.
Let's remember that the commercial banking operations are not the problem, it is the investment banking operations.
Having said all that, let me again say that I really should not be addressing the matter, as I'm not qualified to do so.
February 13, 2009 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think MarkS, a commenter at Econbrowser, put it quite well:
February 13, 2009 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sitting where I am, admittedly in a position more favorable than those still working and with their money in USA investments, it would probably be a good thing for the investment banking institutions to have to digest all of the crap they created, even if it does result in their insolvency.
But, then again, I think the USA government should take over the mega-banks; split the commercial and investment banking functions; let the investment banking portions decompose, with the bond and stock holders taking a big hit; and sell off the commercial banking operations to a number of smaller regional banks so the result is commercial banks that are not "too big to fail".
February 13, 2009 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The speculators are setting us up again -- this time to kill alternative energy development in the United States. A $25 / barrel tax on crude oil would be a good thing."
I want clean, alternative energy too, but be realistic.
From the largest demand for oil ever, hence the rise in oil prices, to the largest decline in consumption in more than 25 years, hence the fall in prices. Oil purchasers, hedgers and speculators intentionally increasing or lowering prices of a commodity like oil at will is ridiculous.
Alternative energy has had decades to get its act together. Nothing but talk and promises and excuses and blame the oil industry and we need more time and money, etc. Alternative energy is just around the corner like the promise of a cure for cancer, if we just had an unlimited supply of taxpayer money.
Should oil pay for alternative energy? Should the allopathic medicine industry pay for alternative medicine? Should the auto industry pay everyone for shoes so they would walk more?
I have no faith in the government trying to intentionally manipulate the price of oil including taxes. All that money will vaporize as useless.
February 13, 2009 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe tax oil, but definitely tax gasoline and retail petro products. $1/gal on all grades to start.
I think your scenario is off. Things were getting bad in Aug 2007, so the run up in oil into July of 2008 might have been a problem but it strikes me as secondary. Goldman Sachs saw trouble coming, starting in April 2007. That might be a large part of what killed AIG.
http://carolan.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/case-chart-062408.gif shows the top of the bubble in late 2006, with at least one area peaking well before that. I can't say it's accurate, just presenting it in good faith. Point is the momentum of the bubble had run into negative territory already by then.
http://carolan.org/2008/06/24/case-shiller-housing-data-2/ is the site where I see the pic.
As for crude prices, remember that spot market prices reflect the over/underflow of contracted deliveries.
February 13, 2009 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink