The basic formula for determining whether someone will vote is

PB + D > C

Here, P is the probability that an individual's vote will affect the outcome of an election, and B is the perceived benefit of that person's favored political party or candidate being elected. D originally stood for democracy or civic duty, but today represents any social or personal gratification an individual gets from voting. C is the time, effort, and financial cost involved in voting. Since P is virtually zero in most elections, PB is also near zero, and D is thus the most important element in motivating people to vote. For a person to vote, these factors must outweigh C.

So civic duty, social gratification, and personal gratification are what's needed to get people to vote. So this formula attempts to explain psychology, so of course oversimplifies things. Another attempt in 2002  to explain why people vote by Jankowski, "Buying a lottery ticket to help the poor: Altruism, civic duty, and self-interest in the decision: Rationality and Society", breaks it down this way:

1. There is a difference in turn-out between types of elections (presidential, mid-term and local).
2. There is a correlation between education and voting.
3. Voting costs can be important.
4. Voters, once at the polls, often skip voting in certain contests. (The roll-off phenomenon)
5. Individuals often vote strategically.

As far as getting people to the polls to vote, I'm going to ignore number 2 (this can't be changed overnight), number 4 (hey, at least they are voting!), and number 5 (the "settling" for the lesser of two evils factor--which could be eliminated anyway if people would vote first in the primaries). That leaves us with election type and cost.

Type: Americans usually vote in elections in presidential years more than in off years and primaries less. So do we feel less civic duty to actually influence what type of candidate represents our individual party? Why is that? Do we think that our voices matter less when they actually weigh a lot more? Is it the Superbowl phenomenon, where we ignore the regular games and just watch the Big Game since it is the one with the big trophy? Personally, I think the average American has their priorities wrong, the primary elections are where the decisions are made and the type of candidate (weasel vs. idealistic vs. pragmatist vs. someone who represents our best interests) are determined.

Cost: Getting to the polling location. Getting a break from work. Looking up the candidates and figuring out their positions. Time and effort. "I gotta go down to that school and wait in a line? Well, I'll try and get to that, maybe."

Going back to that formula, costs can be mitigated by motivation. Costs can also, through a thoughtful effort from the "election people", be lowered. Early voting gives individuals more time slots to get to the polls. Internet voting seems like it would be a panacea. But, when tried out, may actually not work as well (I believe it's been tried in Hawaii to mixed results) as it cheapens the voting experience: It's no longer an event.

Getting voter information easily also lowers our costs. The League of Women Voters puts out generally-neutral voting information for most big races. I can't remember the last even-year race where I hadn't at least looked at their simple breakdown between candidates when choosing someone to vote for (I've never hit that 'party ticket' button). The internet seems like it's a great place to get information. Problem is that there's so much. Not simple=higher cost. The Leagues has an essay, Restoring American Civic Participation, that's an easy read.

So how can turnouts be increased? Making voting fun? Emphasizing that it's our civic duty, like jury duty?

And primaries? What about that? Well, here's my thinking:

1. Information: Where is it? We need more, easy, nonpartisan, trustworthy information available. Gotta lower the voter's costs.

2. Value. We need to emphasize that our candidates are chosen in the primaries. Our main candidates are chosen by the motivated fringe, normally. Do these people represent the real "will of the people"? I think not. These people need to get to the polls, since the average voter's voice (P in the formula) is higher in primaries. Do you dislike Specter and like like Sestak? Well, primary him!

3. Make primaries easier to vote in. Multi-day voting. Easier and more offering of mail-in voting.

4. Buzz. Where is it? Why isn't there more buzz? I think that we have to create it. Opinion pieces. Conversations. Blogs. Doing something so that local TV newscasters notice and actually mention that there's a contentious race right here in the state.