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The Case Against Clinton for State


Photo of Hillary Clinton

(Cross-posted to The Lion and Gun)

I think it's a bad idea, and I'm sure Obama's transition team agrees.

Ezra Klein suggests that this is just an elaborate show of respect that will ultimately result in nothing, and that sounds about right. One of the reasons Clinton was not seriously considered for Vice-President was her (and especially Bill's) refusal to be vetted. As I've mentioned, however, Obama's transition team is just as carefully vetting applicants for high office. And with State there's not just a concern about the potential political ramifications of some of the Clintons' doings. Certain beliefs and revelations could have a deleterious impact on the conduct of American foreign policy.

Central Asia, for example, with its oil reserves, is being jealously eyed by the Russians, Iranians, Chinese and others, and could become an international flash point in the years ahead. That the American Secretary of State's husband might have had shady dealings with the government of Kazakhstan therefore becomes a real problem. Even the appearance of impropriety could negatively impact America's ability to act.

What about Clinton's Presidential ambitions? As a base of operations for Hillary's plotting State doesn't make much sense. It's a high-profile position but not one that lends itself to politicking. And after that, what? Some have suggested Obama wants to build a 'team of rivals' in the manner of Lincoln; that allusion has a double meaning here, since Lincoln's Secretary of State, William Seward, was the only Secretary of State in American history to serve two full Presidential terms. It's unlikely Clinton will repeat that. So let's say she rests at State for three or four years. Then what? Madeline Albright and Warren Christopher haven't exactly aged well, politically speaking.

And if she were to make State a base from which to establish a rival or shadow administration -- which is not unlikely -- that would be even worse. The President famously has to wrangle with Congress to get anything done but has a relatively free hand in foreign affairs. Would he want a Secretary of State, then, that's working to undermine him? And how would that affect American interests abroad? Clinton had a very different (and much more hawkish) foreign policy agenda than Obama's during the primaries. What happens if she goes rogue? At some point the President might have to ask for her resignation. That would be pretty harmful to his administration. It hurt Bush's legitimacy when Colin Powell departed amongst speculation that he mightily disagreed with the country's direction in international affairs, and Powell didn't take half of the Republican party with him.

Andrew Sullivan suggests that Max Baucus's recent moves on health care are 'a sign that Obama might have already been signaling this maneuver.' I doubt it. Max Baucus's emergence as the front runner on reform is a natural consequence of Senate organization. Clinton was never going to be able to take the lead on health care from within the Senate unless Harry Reid decided to step aside and open up a path to leadership -- which he hasn't done. Clinton's on the wrong committees and has little seniority. The leaders for health care reform were always going to be Kennedy and, if he got on-board, Baucus. And Baucus has made it clear for the past year that he's on-board.

I'm not sure what Obama should do with Clinton, but my suspicion is nothing. Leave here where she is. Unless a great opportunity opens for her in the Senate she'll probably return to New York and run for Governor. That would be a better launching pad for a second Presidential run in 2016, and it would make a potentially very popular President Obama's life a hell of a lot easier.

Photo provided under a CC license by Chris Dunn

Thanks for reading. If you found this post valuable I'd hugely appreciate it if you'd click 'recommend'! I'd also love to hear your thoughts in the comments below -- see you there.


29 Comments

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Well, oops appears some one was reading your post. Seem she's been offered the job according TPM front page and Huffpo and Oberman has jumped on it as well over at KOS

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great analysis. This is horrifying. Whatever you think of Clinton, her demonstrable problem with the truth is reason enough to keep her out of a Cabinet post. I'm amazed the people of NY find her to be acceptable as their Senator. She's not trustworthy, and Sec of State is no post to offer for political reasons. Let her be the drug Czar or something.

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hmmmm

I really liked bmaz's article (http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/14/clinton-to-state-is-mid-east-peace-back-on-the-table/) today praising the idea as being part of a master plan to resolve the Israel/Palestine tragedy once and for all.

But now you're making me nervous!

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I think everybody hyperventilating about Sen. Clinton is a bit foolish. Sure, she's more hawkish (at most obvious in the bright lights of a Presidential campaign) but she would necessarily have to defer to the President in her position. Do you think for a second that Pres. Obama would be foolish enough to just let her run wild w/o briefings or a firm knowledge of what his goals are? Please. A collective chill pill would be nice here, people. Who would have more stature: SOS Clinton or SOS Kerry. For those of you that just yawned, thanks for proving my point.

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If the transition team were only in consultation and didn't offer Sen.Clinton the position than this will be recorded as the biggest public relations blunder, thus far, by the Obama team.


Which is reason enough to believe Sen.Clinton infact was offered the job and now its in her hands.

Your argument has some merits but at this point may just be irrelavent. Sen. Clinton is not my first choice but I don't have problem with it. Six months from now she may not seem such a perfect or imperfect candidate for the job.

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kash---This little piece was floated by a clinton minion weeks ago...G.Stephie---Think this is a ploy to garner support to derail Richardson-Revenge politics...The money quote was' persons close to the transition team'! It could have been Ms. Rothchilde -for all we know...Remember he talked to Richardson the next day...who could keep a secret.

She will not be vetted and the author is correct in the suspicion of their jiont business interests...I pray obama does not fall in this trap! She has never pushed an agenda not her own, she would not get enough support to be majority Leader - if she were Senior enough- she is not a team player and has a proven problem with the truth...

World leaders were never met by her as anything other than 'the wife of'!!

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Thank you very much. In my opinion the source of this rumor about HRC for State is Clintonites in the Dem Party who will just never let go and still seem to think they have a few tricks to play. The Huff Post article quotes "senior officials in the Democratic Party", not anyone on the Obama transition team. As you said, she will not pass the vetting as the result of Bill's secrecy regarding donations to his foundation and library. All we know is groups from Colomia and Kazahkastan gave millions to his causes. This in itself would disqualify her, as it would have if she had been vetted for VP.

Clinton could take a seat on the Senate Foreign Relations committee, then perhaps run for Governor and wait for 2016. Both the seats held by Obama and Biden will be vacant, so that should pacify her for the time being. If Kerry is selected for State, I believe Russ Feingold would be next in line for Chairman, which is fine with me! (He is no fan of HRC's.)

Personally, I still find HRC repugnant and cannot imagine she posseses the skill set necessary to deal diplomatically with Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, China and the innumberable other crises facing us. Certainly she can't deal with the global economic crisis either. Obama would be dragged down by her and Bill. It's a horrible thought to think she might end up at State.

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One of the reasons Clinton was not seriously considered for Vice-President was her (and especially Bill's) refusal to be vetted.
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Bill, and whether he's vetted, are irrlevant, as he isn't being offered the position, and is a private citizen.

Stop the guilt by association crap.

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A SPOUSE is very different than an acquaintance or even a distant relative. Guilt by association DOES apply when it pertains to a spouse.

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The election is over. Grow up and stop the Hillary-hating. Obama is about chossing the best for the job, regardless their name, and regardless their position/s during the campaign.

Hillary is perfectly qualified for Sec. of State, and better so than innumerable others including Richardson. (Who's he?) It is up to her, though, whether she wants to be Sec. of State for at most 8 years, or remain in the Senate where she has been growingly effective and promises to have a great future.

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Who is Bill Richardson?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Richardson

He is utterly qualified. And the effectiveness of a SoS is dependent upon in part the SoS's ability to effectively work with the president. I don't know how Clinton would ultimately work with Obama, but her qualifications are not the only factor in the equation.

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A little later I'm going to write a more comprehensive response to many of the thoughtful arguments made here and elsewhere, but I wanted to respond to your points right away. First of all, I'd like to make clear that I am not a Hillary hater. I have a hell of a lot of respect for the Senator from New York and feel she needs an important leadership role in the Democratic party (and the country at large). I supported Obama during the primaries, and there were elements of Clinton's campaign and her own performance that bothered me, but had she won I would have rallied behind her.

There are, to be sure, plenty of people out there who simply dislike Clinton, sometimes for good reasons and sometimes not, but it debases discussion to accuse everybody who attempts criticism of Clinton of 'Hillary-hating'.

Secondly, my point about Bill Clinton is not 'guilt-by-association'. I am not, as that would imply, making or drawing any inferences about Hillary's character because of her husband. (And if I did they'd mostly be positive -- I like Bill!) But there are real-world consequences to apparent impropriety. I choose my words carefully here: it is not even impropriety that matters, but the appearance of it. It is reasonable to assume that the media will delve into the histories and acquaintances of both Clintons, especially Bill, and some of the things they uncover (as well as some of the things they've already uncovered -- hence my Kazakhstan example) would be politically damaging to Barack Obama and harmful to American interests abroad.

I'm not saying that Clinton is unqualified for State. But the question must be, first, is she the most qualified; and, second, are there potential negative consequences to her selection, political and otherwise, that act against her benefits? Again I'm being careful with my words: it's not even a case where the 'cons' have to outweigh the 'pros' before we reject Clinton as the first choice, because there are other candidates that might, on the balance, bring greater benefits to the table.

That said, thanks for your comments, and to repeat, I'll be writing something more substantive later. (Hopefully this afternoon but I have an old friend coming into town, so depending upon when he arrives it might not be till tomorrow night.)

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I'm not a big fan of HRC (and really, really did not appreciate her campaign late last spring, but did appreciate her support for Obama this fall, though I think it is all overhyped, as from what I've heard, the Clinton rallies for Obama came off more like Clinton rallies for Clinton), but I believe that her hawkishness might not be just that. Why should we think that her positions of the last few years have anything to do with what she really thinks should be done in the world given a position of any power (for the sake of this argument, treating the junior senate seat of NY as less than all that powerful)? I suspect she's as cynical as any politician, and her hawkish votes were mostly if not entirely tactical moves to make her less unacceptable to the frightened right and center. Turned out to be a bad tactic, of course. Oops.

On the other hand, if SoS is a platform she uses to undermine Obama as she reaches for his job, there's no reason to believe she wouldn't continue such cynical tactics. And maybe she should pay (further!) for her cynical tactics of the past.

I started this post thinking she might not be so very unacceptable, but I've convinced myself otherwise.

I like Richardson or Hagel.

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Think 2012.
Think about how women were so excited about her.
Think of Obama as a 2-termer WRT Hill's age.

Biden was put on to defend against the claim that he does not have enough experience to be elected Pres.
In 2012, that won't be an issue.

Joe will retire after this and Obama will make history again.

Hill will be groomed for the job.
Get her international creds.
And Obama will announce one year before the 2012 election that Hill will be his choice.

Lastly - it's funny that you think she's out of the limelight at State.
She's a Clinton. Where YOU been for the last 20 years?

And lastly, lastly - isn't there a chance she just wants to serve the country? Why paint her as Dr. Evil? You REALLY feel that way?

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PS - I'm not saying I prefer this.
Just think about it.

Besides, it's been quiet around here since SFCWallace went in for electro-shock.

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And, once more, I'm not trying to suggest Clinton is a 'Dr. Evil' type. (Nor that she'd be out of the limelight at State.) My point is that Foggy Bottom does not lend itself to politicking (there's a reason why Secretaries of State don't become Presidents) and so, presuming for the sake of argument that Clinton retains an ambition for the Senate, State doesn't seem like a natural next step. Either she serves Obama well as a high-profile international mouthpiece for his administration, which probably doesn't help her political prospects as much as a career in Senate leadership or (especially) as Governor of New York; or else she assertively tries to turn it into a springboard for her own advancement, which would be harmful to the Obama administration and America's conduct of foreign policy abroad.

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Sorry, that second sentence should say, 'presuming for the sake of argument that Clinton retains an ambition for the Presidency.' So much for my proofreading skills. :)

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My point is that - after this unbelievable victory by Obama - it's a good bet he's a 2-termer. In 8 years Hill is 69 and Bill is 70.

Without the prospect of the Presidency, my bet is that they will retire to enjoy their later years.

But there is still one thing I think she can do.
Be first female VP.
My bet is that she will accept that.

My argument follows from that.

Under my suggested course of events, her need to do "politicking" then is replaced with her need to be a player in what transpires around world in this next four critical years so she does not place the 2012 ticket at risk of being accused of having a VP not ready lead the free world. She needs to earn her spot - now that Obama has earned his.

So SOS seems like the right place for the scenario I described.

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That's fair, and you definitely paint an intriguing scenario. It's a bit speculative, though, and even if it comes to pass I'm not sure that's what the considerations are at this moment. To be anything beyond wishful thinking this would presumably require a quid pro quo between Obama and Clinton, something that would undermine Biden's role as Vice President. (Well, to the extent that the Veep can be undermined.) Still, as I said, it's an interesting suggestion, and since Hillary seemed to be interested in the role of VP it might just come to be. If Clinton does a good job at State, meaning she finds a way to work effectively with the Obama administration, it'd make for a hell of a strong ticket four years from now.

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I wrote on another thread that SoS could be good prep for UN Secretary-General.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/desidero/2008/11/hillary-and-2016-reality-check.php

I think the Pres or VP train left the station for her and isn't coming back, and agree that Foggy Bottom isn't a good place to be building your domestic political base up.

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Now there's a thought. I'm not sure how likely it is, but either Clinton at the UN could do a great deal to restore its legitimacy, especially in tandem with an Obama White House and Dem Congress. I absolutely think that's a good thing for the world.

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I recommended, just to highlight how radical the left-wing blogosphere is.

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What exactly is so "radical" about this discussion? That the left actually engages in a dialogue amongst ourselves about the pros and cons of this or that appointment? That we don't just accept blindly whoever our party leaders may chose for positions of power?

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All you people against HC for SOS are blinded by the trees and can't see the forest. I was strongly for Obama and not HC, but I can at least see where she is a true global superstar who could do wonders to upgrade our country's image in the world, as SOS. Think about what this position does in terms of representing the US in diplomatic circles. Think of the positive impact she could have. Who could better implement Obama's global vision? After all, what were the real substantive policy differences between Obama and Clinton? This is an inspired choice.

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Clinton at State is not itself a crazy idea. The big stumbling blocks, as I see them, are these:

1) Campaign debt. HRC needs to keep fundraising for at least a couple of years to pay down her campaign debt, and a direct bailout from Obama for America is illegal. If she becomes Secretary of State, she needs to stop raising those funds and likely dismantle her fund-raising organization itself. And frankly, donors don't have any reason to give money to someone who isn't running for anything. Maybe Bil can do the fund-raising to retire the debt, but that raises ethical question marks and leads us to the other problem.


2) Managing Bill. The relationship between a President and a high-profile Secretary of State is always complicated and sometimes tense, but it's manageable and can be very productive. What's much harder to imagine is a successful triangular relationship between a President, a Secretary, and a Secretary's world-famous spouse.

Former Presidents of the United States are extremely bad at following their successors' foreign policy. They are natural freelancers. Bill Clinton learned this the hard way with Jimmy Carter. Once someone's had the nuclear launch codes, you can't send them to negotiate with a limited brief. And even if Bill Clinton promised himself that he would defer to Obama, he wouldn't. He would start negotiating independently without even realizing he was doing it. A former President doesn't speak on someone else's authority any more. He always speaks on his own.

Maybe making Hillary Secretary of State would help rein Bill in, but the experience of the primary campaign suggests that this isn't so easy.

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Excellent post. I agree that while superficially attractive, Sen. Clinton would be an albatross around Pres. Obama's neck (with the added dead weight of former Pres. Clinton).

Sen. Clinton's views on foreign policy are too hawkish. Moreover managing her would be very difficult.

At the time of Lincoln's presidency their was no analogy to the independent power the Clinton's have in the media and among the world's super elite. The Clintons together can cause far more trouble by sending cross messages through their independent channels to undermine administration policy than Seward could ever do by writing letters to his political friends.

I sincerely hope that she declines and they move on to another choice such as Sen. Kerry who is far less volatile.

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I think Hillary Clinton would make an excellent SOS politically and diplomatically.

Politics: The media is fascinated by all things Clinton, which will make state department matters a palace of sunshine and scrutiny. The major problem of the incoming Obama administration is going to be the Bush appointees who will undermine government from within, usually by leaking information to right wing radio that will seep upwards to the mainstream derelicts. This conflict is inevitable and will play out in the messiest possible manner on our 24 hour airwaves. Fixing Clinton's star to this conflict creates an atmosphere of partisan trench warfare that will keep the noise from escaping the lunatic fringe. By this I mean that the mushy middle will see it as "same old same old politics," and this fatigue will undermine the impact of the inevitable "scandal."

Mark my words, the efforts to scour the national security apparatus of Bush cronies who will abuse their clearance to undermine Obama will become a scandal. Giving Hillary Clinton the broom fixes the argument in a way that will blowback on rightwing media. They will try to rehash it as "TravelGate redux," which will fly over the American audience like a lead balloon.

Diplomacy: Yes, the Clintons have unsavory international connections. They also bask in the collective goodwill of much of the developed (and undeveloped) world. Hillary brings positive energy backed by Oslo, Northern Ireland, Bosnia, and dozens of other diplomatic missions that ushered in an era of relative peace and prosperity. The same star power that applies politically will apply diplomatically. In diplomacy, any attention is good attention. I also have confidence in Hillary's ability to broker negotiations.

I find that many criticisms of this potential appointment hinge on the boondoggle of her campaign. The fears of power-hungry self-centered Clintons stealing Obama's thunder and publicly humiliating the young President are so much mythology. Her campaign was awful and will end up in the ashcan of history. Her skills, reputation, and media magnetism outweigh the primaries in a manner that dwarfs comparison.

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My crit goes back to her vehement support of the invasion of Iraq and her failure to recant.

She rationalizes that she did not receive proper or sufficient intelligence on which to base her support. But she got the same intelligence as others who opposed the invasion.

I find it very hard to forgive those who supported the invasion, unless they have recanted and attempted to make amends.

Look at what her support has wrought: a wrecked country, the exodus of millions of Iraqis, thousands of civilians killed, thousands of military killed and injured horribly.

This was the albatross hanging around her neck, more than anything, in my opinion.

"I'm not sure what Obama should do with Clinton"
Yes how do you place a potential opponent with her background in today's world? It will take the wisdom of Solomon.

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I agree with your sentiments about the war in Iraq. But why stop with Iraq? All this talk of getting the terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan - when the whole thing is about oil and empire.

I offer a suggestion that my son has yet to accept - so you are in good company if you call BS on me:)

I tell him that people admire recanters - but vote for deciders. I think this is because so much of our politics revolves around fear. This is the psychology of why Bush never admits a mistake. Yet up to his neck in them - he was reelected.

Bill Clinton said it best - it's not enough to be right. You have to win. Is that proper? Is that ethical? I'm not sure. But look what happens when we loose.


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